AAPL
Apple: Bullish Seasonal Growth ExpectedApple Inc. (AAPL) is trading at $230.54 and higher in the pre-market session, continuing to demonstrate strength as the price embarks on a seasonal growth trajectory that is projected to persist through the first two weeks of August. This anticipated bullish upside aligns with our in-depth analysis of market trends and seasonal patterns.
A significant factor driving this optimistic outlook is the positioning of various market participants. Large speculators, typically institutional investors and hedge funds, are currently holding long positions on Apple. This suggests a strong confidence in the stock’s potential for further gains. On the other hand, retail traders are predominantly positioned on the short side, which often indicates a contrarian opportunity for upward movement as these positions may get squeezed.
Given these dynamics, we see a compelling opportunity to buy Apple stock at the opening of today’s market. The alignment of large speculators' long positions with the seasonal trend enhances the probability of a sustained bullish run. Historical data supports this seasonal growth pattern for Apple, typically seeing a positive performance during this time of year.
Investors should consider the broader market context as well. Apple, as a leading tech giant, often sets the tone for market sentiment. Its robust fundamentals, continuous innovation, and strong consumer demand further underpin the bullish case. Additionally, any positive developments in the broader tech sector or favorable economic indicators could provide additional tailwinds for Apple's stock price.
In conclusion, with Apple trading at $230.54 and higher in the pre-market and supported by a seasonal growth pattern and strong positioning from large speculators, we are poised to capitalize on this opportunity. Entering a long position at the market opening aligns with our analysis and the anticipated bullish trajectory through mid-August. Investors should monitor the stock closely, considering both the seasonal trends and market participant behavior to make informed trading decisions.
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APPLE: Bearish Forecast & Outlook
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current APPLE chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
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Apple is BullishApple is bullish and in an uptrend channel on the daily timeframe.
With today's close will confirm, a break out above the resistance area around 195-200 (to become the new support/demand zone) and a break out of the double-bottom pattern. Target is set to the upper levels of the channel at 250.
Matter MattersMarkets are liquid. Liquids, by definition, move.
Some of them have moved tremendously well.
These liquids got so strong that they are now considered to be gasses.
Unfortunately for them, gasses are not very dense. They are light and weak.
Apple is the prime example of this important paradigm change.
Until ~2005 Apple tried to strengthen and it magnificently did. It reached the optimal point in its cycle. It began as cold hard ice which is hard to move and turned into dense water. In the last 20 years Apple (and many others) turned into hot liquids that have the risk of evaporation into gas.
Now these hot markets are reaching the end of their cycle...
Gases reach the upper levels of the atmosphere. There they can only turn into rain, or escape into space. Either one of them is bad for markets.
The birthplace of bull markets are rivers lakes and oceans. The end of their life is up in the skies. Market Cycles are just like Water Cycles. They cannot escape the cycle.
Hot markets can only get colder. Remember, space is very very cold and can easily turn growing gasses into falling rain. Investors are now beginning to fear.
And so, they fly to safety. One of these safe havens is Gold, which has performed incredibly these past few months. Inside the equity market however, there are stocks that begin to exhibit incredible signs of resilience (coldness) like BRK.A
Has Berkshire reached the "island of stability"?
If we plot a volume-weighted candle chart, we realize that Berkshire Hathaway has created a massive plateau. A lake in the mountains. A place for investors to swim into.
With ongoing worldwide conflict, investments like these will definitely pull buyers towards them.
Apple is not the only weak. It is a mere example of the many "bubbling" companies that face issues.
Their growth was an example of easy money loose monetary policies. With high yield rates the survival of these bull markets is not guaranteed.
On the other hand Berkshire is not the only one that shows strength.
Companies like Exxon Mobil, an energy company, cannot be easily ignored.
Now compare this massive brick of volume to the following chart:
No words need be spoken.
Matter matters. Not all H2O is identical.
A solid investment needs ample liquidity and warm water.
A long-term investor may seek heavy icebergs, which may take years to melt.
A seller or a reckless trader may look into some of the innumerable gas giants to profit on.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
TSMC: Chipmaker Prepares for WarRising tensions between China and Taiwan pose a significant challenge to the global technology supply chain. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), a world leader in chip manufacturing, is at the forefront of these concerns. In response to the potential for a Chinese invasion, TSMC has developed contingency plans, including the ability to remotely disable its advanced chipmaking equipment.
This "kill switch" strategy is intended to prevent China from acquiring TSMC's cutting-edge semiconductor technology. Such an event could have a crippling effect on the global tech industry, with companies like Apple potentially facing significant disruptions.
The article delves into the geopolitical factors driving these tensions, the ramifications of a potential invasion of the global tech supply chain, and the ongoing efforts to bolster domestic chipmaking capabilities in Western countries. These efforts aim to reduce dependence on a single source and mitigate the risks associated with geopolitical instability.
While the exact timeline for a potential invasion and the effectiveness of TSMC's contingency plans remain uncertain, this situation highlights the critical need for strategic planning and technological self-sufficiency in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.
Apple: DownhillApple recently set the high of the corrective wave (B) in magenta just below the resistance at $221.59. The wave (C) should now expand down into our green Target Zone (between $192.26 and $176.27). There the superior green wave (2) should be completed. Subsequently, we expect a reversal and a rise above $221.59. However, please note our alternative scenario (43%) that will come into play on a direct break of this resistance. In this case, the green wave alt.(2) is already complete.
AAPL / Apple - Idea I.Hey guys,
Yearly Chart: Bullish Engulfing
-> Showdown Zone at 228-246 (138.2 &161.8 Fib ext.)
200 Being the First Resistance and 210 the second.
Quarterly: Candle is bullish
-> broke through the ascending triangular pattern and closed above bullishly
-> moreover 210 has been broken and 220 has been tested. -> Some profit taking would be logical but is not necessary since 228 can be seen as the first "real" target. But we will see … 3D chart will show.
-> Stochastic Ind. is OB but pointing up. -actually it is still in a very bullish condition.
Monthly: Bullish close but long shadow.
-> Stochastics has turned up after forming a double bottom
-> Target of 210 has been reached so Monthly traders might take profit as well.
-> looking for Bullish entries after a correction towards 200-190 area.
3D: trend is up with Stochastic turning down
Trendline still bullish
thanks for reading…
219/220 and why it is an issue alt 228219 area plus or minus 1 Has stop AAPL in her tracks reason is we reached major over head resistance and the question is was that the TOP of wave 3 today rally just stopped at a .618 But Cycles and spiral point toward july 5 to the 11th .so if we break above 215.4at anytime I would look for the throwover into the top of the channel that is at 228 plus or minus 1 I have taken a long position this is the second time the first made nice $ best of trades Wavetimer
Apple (AAPL): Bullish Breakout and What to Expect NextApple has broken out above the range between $198 and $165, currently trading around $210. This breakout is seen as very bullish, indicating that we can discard our alternative scenarios. We are confident that Wave (4) completed at $123 and we are now in the larger Wave (5).
Current Situation:
Elliott Wave Analysis: We believe that the initial super sub-wave ((i)) of the larger Wave (5) needs to correct after the strong rise since mid-April.
Correction Levels: We expect a potential pullback to the $185 to $165 range. Whether it will reach as low as $165 remains uncertain.
Confluences:
RSI: The RSI is overbought but without a bearish divergence, indicating continued bullish momentum with a "normal" pullback.
Volume: Support should hold around $175, providing a potential entry point during the correction.
Strategy:
No Immediate Orders: We are not placing any limit orders yet.
Market Report: If we decide to place a limit order, we will issue a market report to inform our group.
The outlook for Apple remains bullish. We anticipate a correction within the $185 to $165 range, with strong support around $175. We will monitor the situation closely and communicate any order placements through a market report.
AAPL: Hourly and Daily Chart InsightsHourly Chart: Lower Highs and Key Support Level
The hourly chart of AAPL indicates a short-term downtrend, characterized by a series of lower highs. This pattern suggests selling pressure is dominant in the near term. A key short-term support level is identified at 211.31. The price has recently breached this support, signaling potential for further downside. The 21 EMA at 212.94 is acting as resistance now. If the price remains below this level, it could confirm the continuation of the downtrend, materializing a pullback on the daily chart.
Daily Chart: Fibonacci Retracement and Support Levels
The daily chart shows AAPL’s recent bullish momentum, followed by a pullback. The stock is still bullish, and even a correction to the 21 EMA, or to one of its retracements would reverse its bullish sentiment. The 21 EMA at 201.11 provides additional support. If the price holds above the 38.2% retracement, making a bottom signal above the 21 EMA, it indicates strength and potential for a rebound towards the recent high of 220.00. A break below this level could lead to a test of the 50% retracement around 200.00, and possibly the 61.8% retracement near 195.00, triggering a sharper ccorrection.
Conclusion: Monitoring Key Levels for Trend Confirmation
AAPL's analysis on both hourly and daily charts highlights critical levels that we should monitor for trend confirmation. The hourly chart’s lower highs and breach of the key support level at 211.31 indicate short-term bearishness. The daily chart provide a broader perspective, suggesting that the trend is still bullish, despite the possibility of a correction. Holding above its support levels could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, while a break below may suggest further downside. Monitoring these levels will be crucial in determining the stock's next move.
In an uptrend, corrections are usually buying opportunities if there is a bottom signal near support, since the risk/reward ratio is optimized.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
APPLE formed 1st 1D Golden Cross in 15 months! Attention needed.It wasn't long ago when we called for a buy on Apple's (AAPL) absolute technical bottom (April 25 and May 02, see charts below respectively):
Needless to say that the 198.00 Target has been smashed. As the price reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 20-month (blue) Channel Up, the stock turned sideways and has been consolidating for the past 4 sessions.
This is a strong indication of a medium-term Top. If rejected, we expect a Channel Down correction to at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), where we will again buy for the long-term. If broken though, we will buy the first 1D candle close above the (blue) Channel Up and target $250.00.
The reason for this bullish expectation is that Apple just formed the first 1D Golden Cross in 15 months (since March 22 2023). Last time it did, the price had already initiated the new Bullish Leg (in the form of a blue dotted Channel Up). It only started the medium-term correction of July 2023, when it closed a full candle below the 4H MA50 (thin red trend-line).
At the same time, the 1W RSI had to hit the 79.00 overbought level. As a result, if you do turn bullish upon a 1D candle breaking above the (blue) Channel Up, consider booking the profit earlier if 4H MA50 breaks or the 1W RSI gets rejected on its 79.00 Resistance (unless your portfolio can support the correction).
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Dow 'Big Yikes' moment as it gravely lags behind BigTech rallyA stock-market rally concentrated on an ever-narrowing cohort of tech stocks is leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average behind as the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), Nasdaq-100 hit records, making investors nervous.
The scope of the divergence on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq-100 finishing posting a 1.33% gain versus a 0.09% fall for the Dow DJIA was particularly troubling.
This is quite rare moment as the Dow posted a daily close more than 1.0 percentage points below Nasdaq-100 Index and more than 0.9% below S&P500 Index.
That is a 'Big Yikes' moment.
It's largely a statement on very bad breadth of the market, as we're incredibly reliant on just a very small number of names.
The rally more recently, he noted, has been driven largely by longtime AI favorite Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), and Apple Inc. (AAPL), which has surged nearly 9% this week as it outlined its own plans to add AI to its products.
The Super concentration is manifested in any number of breadth statistics, which track how many stocks in an index are participating in a move, including the percentage of stocks at 52-week highs versus 52-week lows and the percentage above their 200-day moving average.
For example, just one component of SP500 Index - that is Nvidia.. had accounted for 35% of the increase in the S&P 500's market cap in 2024.
Such a high concentration implies that if NVIDIA continues to rise, then things are fine and dandy.
But if it starts to decline, then the market will be hit hard.
Overall, presidential-election years tend to be strong ones for the market, particularly in the fourth quarter. And years that begin strong also tend to hold up.
But everything could end, earlier or later.
The main chart is the ratio between Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Dow Jones (DJI) Indices. That indicates that June quarter posting an extremely new historical high between these two Major indices, first time over the past 25 years.
A very historical times we live.
Triple Top Apple going down - ultimately a head and shouldersApple will pierce the 50 and go back to it's latest accumulation area due to coming out with nothing new besides a crappy calculator and hitching it's failing stock (Buffett sold) to the latest bubble fad: AI.
I see Apple ultimately failing because the future will get rid of free business models for "stake holders" - if Biden gets reelected because we will have DIGITALID after the election and CBDC's shortly after that. If Trump gets in we'll morph to a gold standard, and Apple will have one last gasp of an idea that completes the right shoulder before the global economy is lost to global depression because of The Great Reset which is unavoidable due to currencies being ticking time bombs due to the coming sovereign defaults.
This will ultimately push up the dollar to 160+ before imploding itself.
I don't see ANY reason to hold Apple here. Fear and Greed is turning on the Weekly and Greed is losing momentum, RSI turning down and MACD is forming a crossover soon.
I'd buy puts on this: September 130 going for .25, this will return 20x.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Short $AAPL between $191-196. Target below $100?NASDAQ:AAPL is starting to look like a really great short opportunity. As you can see from the chart, the bullish trend that started in 2020, broke down in 2022 and hasn't been able to confirm support above it.
We confirmed resistance on that trend line in August and now looks like we're going back to test it one more time. I'd imagine this time, it won't break through and we should see a strong downward reaction afterwards.
I think we'll see price fall after that December pivot and then bottom sometime before 2025 at the lower support level.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming year.
Betting on the Apple Ecosystem: A Long-Term Look at AAPL StockApple (AAPL) has captivated investors for decades. Their sleek design, user-friendly interface, and commitment to innovation have fueled a loyal customer base and consistent stock growth. But with a recent focus on rebranding artificial intelligence (AI) as "Apple Intelligence," some wonder if the company can maintain its momentum. While this AI rebranding sparks debate, a long-term bullish outlook on AAPL remains strong, driven by the company's core strengths and a vibrant ecosystem.
Beyond the Buzzword: Why Apple?
Despite the recent "Apple Intelligence" announcement, the company's true value lies beyond a single rebranding effort. Here are some key factors driving a long-term bullish outlook on AAPL stock:
• Brand Loyalty: Apple boasts an unrivaled level of customer loyalty. Their products are not simply seen as tools, but as integral parts of users' lives. This loyalty translates to consistent product sales and recurring revenue streams.
• Innovation Engine: Apple is a constant innovator. From the revolutionary iPhone to the powerful M1 chip, they consistently push boundaries and create products that redefine user experiences. This drive to innovate keeps them ahead of the curve and ensures a steady stream of new revenue opportunities.
• A Walled Garden that Works: While some criticize Apple's closed ecosystem, it fosters a tightly integrated user experience. Seamless connectivity between hardware, software, and services like iCloud creates a smooth and efficient experience that users appreciate.
• Services Boom: Apple's services segment, encompassing offerings like Apple Music, iCloud, and Apple Arcade, is experiencing explosive growth. This recurring revenue stream provides stability and reduces dependence on hardware sales alone.
The "Apple Intelligence" Gamble: A Double-Edged Sword?
Apple's recent rebranding of AI to "Apple Intelligence" is a bold move. While it reflects a user-centric approach, some potential drawbacks exist:
• Managing Expectations: "Apple Intelligence" sets high expectations. Delivering features that consistently live up to the name is crucial to avoid user disappointment. Bugs and limitations can erode trust and damage the brand.
• Transparency Challenges: Apple hasn't always been at the forefront of AI transparency. Building trust requires openness about how their algorithms work and how user data is used.
• Integration Hurdles: Successfully integrating powerful AI features across their ecosystem requires meticulous engineering. Any hiccups in this process can hinder user adoption and adoption of the "Apple Intelligence" moniker.
The Long View: Betting on the Ecosystem
Despite potential roadblocks with "Apple Intelligence," the core strengths of the Apple ecosystem remain compelling. Their focus on user experience, consistent innovation, and a loyal customer base position them well for continued success. The "Apple Intelligence" rebranding might be a gamble, but it shouldn't overshadow the company's commitment to building a seamless and intelligent user experience.
For long-term investors, AAPL remains a strong contender. The company's dedication to innovation, a loyal user base, and a robust ecosystem suggest continued growth potential. However, keeping a watchful eye on the execution of "Apple Intelligence" and its impact on user experience is prudent. After all, in the world of technology, even the most brilliant ideas can falter without flawless execution.
I went long aapl this morning near the low take profits now the chart posted was an easy trade this morning with so many long puts trapped at the low the calls were a free $ day 21 % gain in my calls look now for a pull back in aapl to buy long next week I have a cycle peak in VIX best of trades WAVETIMER