Aditya Birla Capital Ltd. (NSE: ABCAPITAL) Technical AnalysisCurrent Price: ₹201.60 (-0.82%)
Price Target (Jefferies): ₹265, maintained at Buy
Technical Overview
Price Action: The chart reflects a strong support level near ₹197-₹201, where the price is currently hovering. The support zone is reinforced by a trendline that has been respected several times (highlighted with green arrows). This support level aligns with a high-volume node in the volume profile, indicating considerable buying interest around this area.
Volume Profile Analysis: A significant amount of trading activity has occurred around the ₹190-₹200 range, suggesting strong demand. On the upside, high trading volume can also be seen around ₹227 and ₹241, which could act as resistance if the stock attempts an upward move.
Moving Averages: The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are providing additional support and resistance signals. The stock is currently trading near its 200-day moving average, which has historically provided solid support. A sustained break below this level could indicate bearish momentum.
Resistance Zones: The stock has encountered resistance around ₹240 (indicated by red arrows), with multiple attempts to break this level failing. This level will be crucial for the next bullish wave, and a breakout above it could lead to a new upward trend.
Key Pattern Observations: A broad ascending triangle pattern is observed, with the stock making higher lows since last year. This bullish structure indicates underlying strength, but a break below the support line could invalidate this pattern.
Technical Indicators
1.RSI: The Relative Strength Index is nearing the oversold territory, suggesting that the stock may be due for a reversal or consolidation phase.
2.Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support : ₹197
Critical Support : ₹190
Resistance Levels: ₹211, ₹227, ₹241
Outlook and Conclusion
With Jefferies setting a revised target of ₹265 and maintaining a Buy rating, there is an optimistic long-term outlook. However, in the short term, the price may continue to consolidate around the ₹190-₹200 support region.
Bullish Scenario: If the stock bounces off the ₹197 level, supported by increased volume, it could make another attempt to reach ₹227 or even test the critical ₹240 resistance.
Bearish Scenario : A sustained break below ₹190 might attract further selling pressure, pushing the stock toward the ₹175 region.
Investment Idea: Traders may look for buy signals around the support zones of ₹190-₹200, with a potential target near ₹227 and ₹240, while maintaining a stop loss slightly below ₹190.
ABC
BTC: Impulse Wave 1 Complete, Awaiting Wave 3 SurgeIt appears that Impulse Wave 1 (green 1) has completed, with the necessary expanded ABC correction in place for Wave 2. Currently, BTC looks like it’s in Wave A of 5 of C. According to the Hurst cycles at the bottom, we should expect this corrective phase to last a few more days, up until the dotted blue line.
If all goes well, this will lead us into Wave 3, where we can anticipate strong upward momentum and potentially ferocious lunges to the upside. This will be Wave 3 of 3, meaning we should see a substantial bullish move.
The Hurst cycles suggest that Wave 3 could continue until around the 7th of November, making it interesting to consider how the U.S. election results on the 5th may influence this move. In any case, keep an eye on BTC for potential breakouts. Remember that corrections are healthy—and stay tuned for more updates!
CHZ in a Multi-Year Winter: Awaiting a Break for Wave 3 of 1CHZ looks like it’s deep into a multi-year correction as part of Wave 2 of the higher degree trend. The flameout in Wave 5 of 1 resulted in the current, drawn-out consolidation. This extended correction could be unfolding as a WXYXZ or a very elongated ABC pattern, reflecting the market’s need to churn and reset after the huge rally.
For now, volume remains low, suggesting the slow bleed may continue for some time longer. However, if we see a significant increase in volume, combined with a break of the upper trendline, this could signal the start of Wave 3 of 1, setting the stage for a strong impulse move upward.
Until then, patience is key, as the consolidation phase persists. But when the conditions align, CHZ could be primed for a major breakout.
WIF Stuck in a Wedge Pattern: Patience is Key For a BreakoutWIF is forming a very long but distinct WXYXZ wedge pattern, tightly confined within its channel. The structure is clear, with repeated ABC corrective waves confirming the pattern’s integrity. While the setup is clear, it suggests we may have to trade within the boundaries of the channel for now.
For those looking to trade short-term, focus on the key levels within the wedge, but be prepared to wait patiently for the eventual breakout—it could take time, but when it happens, it should be significant.
Tow-Legged, ABCD, Elliott WavesFigure 1.1 has two extreme trends and one extreme trading range. This day began with a strong bear trend down to bar 1, then entered an unusually tight trading range until it broke out to the upside by one tick at bar 2, and then reversed to a downside breakout into an exceptionally strong trend down to bar 3.
Two-legged moves are common, but unfortunately the traditional nomenclature is confusing. When one occurs as a pullback in a trend, it is often called an ABC move. When the two legs are the first two legs of a trend, Elliott Wave technicians instead refer to the legs as waves 1 and 3, with the pullback between them as wave 2. Some traders who are looking for a measured move will look for a reversal back up after the second leg reaches about the same size as the first leg. These technicians often call the pattern an AB = CD move. The first leg down begins with point A and ends with point B (bar 1 in Figure 1.1, which is also A in the ABC move), and the second leg begins with point C (bar 2 in Figure 1.1, which is also B in the ABC move) and ends with point D (bar 3 in Figure 1.1, which is also C in the ABC move).
$BINANCE:LPTUSDT To Reach $14 if it broke the $9.35 MarkBINANCE:LPTUSDT has a target beyond the $10 Mark i wrote about before, which is the $14 Range, almost 100% increase From Current Price.
Writing this Idea, Currently we are in a Corrective Area, Colleting as much buyers as Possible to Impulse its away to The $12 Range, and a Possibility to do another Small Correction in that area before Finally Reaching the $14 Mark.
We have two Major Price Points to look for
Break Up $9.35 , We go up to $14.
Break Down $5.50 , The Sequence is Broken and will be much likely not Reaching $14 and Start Huge Downtrend.
This is not a Buy nor Sell Signal.
Bitcoin Bull Market PlayBit of a long shot, but this new move hopefully follows my previous chart idea that played out well and is nearly complete also.
As before, I'm not really focusing on timings, only the Elliott Wave counts.
First...
Price should soon head up and hit my 5th wave at around $40K-$40.8K. However, price could come down first, to around $36.8K - to tap @Anups new virgin monthly CPR.
Worth noting that last month's CPR didn't get tapped at all (but this just seems bullish to me).
Next...
ABC correction
1) TP your Long + Short around the $40K range.
Then...
Brand new Elliott Wave
2) TP your Short + ladder Long term Longs at the C wave (1.618 - 2.618 range). This looks to be $24K or lower, but in case we don't get a heavy ABC correction, I'm going to start building my Longs from around the $30K mark - I'm not missing the run.
Finally...
Ride the Elliot Wave until the Bull market tops out.
3) TP around $56K (1.618 range).
4) TP around $78K-$80K (2.618 range). This is where I think we finally top out.
Moonboy?
Zoom right out if you want to see some TP5 ($120K) and TP6 ($179K) Moonboy targets. These TPs are still (roughly) calculated and so are potentially possible one day - but I don't think we go much above $80K this time around.
Let's see...
LINK - Sweep The Highs, Then The Lows ,Then Up.#Link
Another beautifully deceptive flag that sweeps the highs then down to the lows, perfect for milking emotional retail.
Another time based flag whipsawing fear into the leverage, cheek clinching group of retail Traders. First convince them to long then to short, then up.
Sweep the highs -> sweep the lows -> grind up past support -> bounce off heavy support -> Up
MO Altria Group possible A=C plus bear flag Let's discuss it.Hi ,
Well, first of all, it's important to note that I have an open position in this dividend-paying stock because I want to hold it for the long term.
However, we should not ignore the fact that we will start wave C of a possible ABC correction soon. We can also see a bear flag shape. Both have a price target of ~$14 to $15.
Regarding the fundamentals, some important things:
Traditional tobacco companies have to face the fact that their products are becoming more and more expensive, thus many people buy cheaper products.
Vapor and liquid alternatives are increasingly popular among the younger generation. Because they are fragrant, tasty and cheaper.
Although these companies have made a lot of profit in the past decades, they are now facing another challenge. If they want to stay competitive, they have to develop to catch up with their competitors who produce products based on new technologies.
Altria Group is constantly working to achieve this. However, the transformation of the production technology and the necessary permits (e.g. FDA) are essential for its success. It's all money and time.
All in all, I think that stocks of traditional tobacco companies are still a good long-term investment. However, it should be taken into account that they may underperform in the coming months. And they can hit new lows.
That's why I didn't use all my resources that I intended for this stock. Because if we actually reach the ~$15 zone, then I want to significantly increase my position size there.
Please tell me what you think about it. And share your thoughts.
Do not forget. This does not constitute investment advice. Do your own research before entering a position.
USDCAD: Short Term Technical AnalysisTechnically the FX:USDCAD pair seems to follow 12345 bullish impulse structure on intraday chart. Having said this, it is possible to follow 2 setups (bearish and bullish) on levels shown on the chart. On the short side, it is good to monitor and manage the position closely and move stop loss to breakeven as soon as possible. In this case the expected pullback could take the form of ABC or ABCDE Pattern. Levels may change, so follow our updates below or on our website.
Trade with care
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$DISH a beat down stock ready for bounce?Down 87% over the past 2 years there's not much left to beat on here.
Technical analysis points to trend reversal and move to the upside at ~70% chance.
It could potentially drop down to demand zone in 5's. Either way, we like it long term.
📈💰 Gold Breakout Alert! Time to Ride the Bullish Wave! 🚀🔥Get ready for a golden opportunity! The bullish setup on Gold is shining bright in the 4-hour timeframe. After weeks of oscillation within a falling wedge, price has finally broken out! The ABC corrective wave is behind us, paving the way for a powerful impulse.
I'm setting my sights on a target of 1940, where I'll be taking some sweet profits. But the excitement doesn't stop there! The ultimate target is set at 1970, a level that has proven to be a tough resistance for price in the past.
Adding to the optimism, the RSI indicator has formed a confirmation with a bullish divergence. The bounce and subsequent break above the 50 level serve as a green light to open a buy position.
It will be interesting to check the price action when the market opens and buy from here🌟💰📈
feel free to share your toughts in the comments section. follow me for updates and don't forget to press the like button if you think this insight was helpful🚀
AmerisourceBergen Corporation: Bearish 3 Drives 1.618 Entry #2I entered a bearish position on ABC at the 2.618/1.272 confluence zone a bit ago and since then it's gone up to the 1.618 of this 3 Drives pattern. I think it will be worth entering one last time as we are on the way to confirming a Bearish Harami at these levels, which would later result in Bearish Divergence on the weekly if it begins to play out.
XAUUSD SYMMETRY TRADING ABC BEARISH PATTERN
XAUUSD has formed an ABC bearish pattern on its hourly chart.
The price is trading the EL: 1999.58.
ST: 2009.75
Targets:
62% AB: 1960.21
79% AB: 1946.73
127% AB: 1908.39
162% AB: 1880.82
One of the best ways to confirm symmetry in the markets is to check price and time using two or more cluster confirmations. Another key method to compute these patterns is to use percentage change of price between market highs and market lows. Symmetry is a science by itself, and traders take great advantage of knowing the potential turning points and levels using these methods.One of the best ways to confirm symmetry in the markets is to check price and time using two or more cluster confirmations. Another key method to compute these patterns is to use percentage change of price between market highs and market lows. Symmetry is a science by itself, and traders take great advantage of knowing the potential turning points and levels using these methods.
Symmetry is visible in all markets and in all time-frames. Symmetric rallies and declines give traders an advantage to determine the key turning points. A cluster of similar extensions and similar retracements at key price ranges, or some important levels provide insights into future significant resistance and support levels. In addition to knowing key turning points, the benefits of trading symmetric price and time cluster levels include low-risk trades.
The ABC Chart pattern bellow…
and its related AB=CD Chart Pattern bellow…
are prime examples of "Symmetry" in the markets. These "Harmonic" patterns help traders to identify buying and selling opportunities in all markets and in all time-frames. The ABC and AB=CD patterns are first described by H.M. Gartley in his book 'Profits in the Stock Market." (1935). The main advantages of trading harmonic patterns are that they allow traders to determine risk vs. reward ratios beforehand as they forecast key market turning points and profit targets for traders. The ABC pattern (can be a continuous or reversal pattern)
The key point in identifying an ABC and AB=CD patterns is to correctly detect the A, B, and C key inflection (Pivot) points in a chart while they are forming. These inflection points are determined from key swing highs and lows of various levels, and for its correction waves to determine distinct "swings." The potential C point is usually forecasted by the fib. retracements (0.38 to 0.618) of AB Swing. Once A, B, and C points (and AB, BC legs) are identified, a projection algorithm is applied to compute the Potential Completion Zone (PCZ). This PCZ area is where ABC pattern is expected to complete and may signal continuation of its trend in the first trend direction (AB). Following the completion of BC leg, the projections of AB and BC legs (using fib. ratios)
The swing legs (AB and BC) in ABC pattern are generally in symmetrical proportions both in price and time with consistent slopes. The tractable CD leg has a harmonic relation with symmetry for AB and BC swings. The ABC bullish structures are formed after a prolonged prior down trend or consolidation trends.
A Pattern Completion Zone (PCZ) is computed using AB swing and Fibonacci ratios (50-88.6% of AB). This PCZ area is where 'C' pivot is formed at the end of BC swing and to signal completion of ABC pattern.
ABC Bullish Example
ABC Bearish EXample
Trade Entry:
After ABC pattern is completed, it is advisable to wait for the pattern to confirm a reversal signal using any momentum-based indicator or price confirmation mechanisms. I use various confirmation and trade entry methods, but one of the methods is price crossing 2-bar high after 'C' in ABC Bullish pattern or a 2-bar low after 'C' in ABC bearish pattern.
Stop:
A Stop is placed few ticks below C (in Bullish) or few ticks above C (in Bearish) levels.
Examples of entries and stops :
Targets:
The ABC Pattern targets are computed using the AB and BC swings. The height pattern (AB) is used to project target levels from (-level using fib. ratios. The first target zone is (62-79% AB) from 'C' and second target zone is (127-162% AB). A secondary target level is set at 100% AB Level .
Examples of Targets:
TRADE CHARTS PATTERNS LIKE THE PROS
5 GOLDEN RULES
1: The Trade Setup
The setup is the basic conditions that need to be present in order to even consider a trade. For example, if you're a charts patterns trader, then a pattern needs to be present. Your trading plan should define what a tradable chart pattern is (for your strategy). This will help you avoid trading when a chart pattern isn't there. Think of the "setup" as your reason for trading.
2: The Trade Trigger
If your reason for trading is present, you still need a precise event that tells you now is the time to trade
There are various methos using a trigger.
A Price action
B Moving averages
C Fibonacci
D 2 bar low/high
3: The Stop Loss
Having the right conditions for entry and knowing your trade trigger isn't enough to produce a good trade. The risk on that trade must also be managed with a stop-loss order. There are multiple ways to place a stop loss. For long trades, a stop loss is often placed just slightly below a recent swing low and for a short trade just slightly above a recent swing high.
Step 4: The Price Target
You now know that conditions are favourable for a trade, as well as where the entry point and stop loss will go. Next, consider the profit potential.
A profit target is based on something measurable and not just randomly chosen. Chart patterns, for example, provide targets based on the size of the pattern. Trend channels show where the price has had a tendency to reverse; if buying near the bottom of the channel, set a price target near the top of the channel.
5: The Reward-to-Risk
Strive to take trades only where the profit potential is greater than 1.5 times the risk. For example, losing $100 if the price reaches your stop loss means you should be making HKEX:150 or more if the target price is reached.
Other Considerations
The five-step test acts as a filter so that you're only taking trades that align with your strategy, ensuring that these trades provide good profit potential relative to the risk. Add in other steps to suit your trading style. For example, day traders may wish to avoid taking positions right before major economic numbers or a company's earnings are released. In this case, to take a trade, check the economic calendar and make sure no such events are scheduled for while you're likely to be in the trade.
The Bottom Line
Make sure conditions are suitable for trading a particular strategy. Set a trigger that tells you now is the time to act. Set a stop loss and target, and then determine if the reward outweighs the risk. If it does, take the trade; if it doesn't, look for a better opportunity. Consider other factors that may affect your trading, and implement additional steps if require.
This may seem like a tedious process, yet once you know your strategy and get used to the steps, it should take only a few seconds to run through the entire list.