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Abccorrection

KEY SUPPORT IS DEAD : Welcome in bearish woods.Hello guys, here some updates of my precedent chart. The crucial point of my precedent TA didn't hold and invalidate the ABCDE bullish flag. We clearly see now the woods of a major correction. Remember correction are healthy and that's a good time to buy more if you caught the good price. Different scenarios are now possible : - We could be at the wave C of an EW ABC correction that would push us to 8k area. - We can see on the chart a descending triangle pattern who could slowly put us to 7-6k area with a possible breakdown to 4K... and yes... i think it's possible but as always it's a game of probability. For the first time in Bitcoin history (if i remember well) the daily MACD shows a possible reverse trend in bearish zone. RSI shows signs of bearish too. We'll probably retest 10K before any other scenario, but i don't expect this support to hold a very long time. It's always a pleasure to read your comments, agreements and disagreements are always welcome when there are constructive.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by KassandrA_dotcom
5
BTC BUY OPPURTUNITIES!For those who want to make profits with btc but dont know where to buy because of the correction. I have presented a couple buy opportunities represented as green circles. The first strategy is to buy the breakout for wave b for short term profits, or wait for wave c to finish and set a buy order above the 0.618 fib line. If you are new and dont really have an idea of how to identify the ends of waves, counting the fractals can help. Wave A & C consists of 5 smaller waves down, and wave B consists of 3 smaller waves up. After that it is smooth sailing to the top of the next wave.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Woolf_
1
Ethereum Cycles and PatternsSome interesting patterns have formed in the daily chart for Ethereum. This chart shows how cycles and patterns repeat as fractals. With our Elliott Wave numbering, we have completed wave 1 of a higher order wave (1) again of a higher order wave I. You can also see the symmetry of the corrections, where each subsequent correction is a smaller version of the previous one, due to the lower order degree of the corrections. You can also see some patterns in the daily RSI. Where each bull/bear cycle is a smaller version of the previous one, which makes sense since each cycle is a lower order degree cycle of the previous one. This is considerably easier to see right now, because we are in the first wave of each successive higher order wave, and the RSI's for each of the 3 waves appears side-by-side. Once we start moving into wave 3 and 5, of the different degree waves, these patterns and cycles will be much harder to see, but they will still be there. I’m sure there are more Fibonacci-related patterns in the various relationship between these time frames. But I’ve only located one: the ratio of bull to bear for each subsequent lower degree wave: rounding/truncating gives approximately Wave I/II: 27 weeks / 5 weeks ≈ 5 Wave (1)/(2): 7 weeks / 2 weeks ≈ 3 Wave 1/2: 4 weeks / 1.5+ weeks ≈ 2 Which you can see in the Fibonacci series: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, … This chart lends additional support for the idea that we are presently in an ABC correction, and that we are therefore looking at a completed correction somewhere in the $235-$258 range. Also, note, a double-bottom has formed. IF we break the $318 level, then it is more likely that we will be first heading up to retest the $350 level, before continuing down to the target area. Target: $235-$258
Short
by dalmazio
Establishing Support & Bitcoin Gold (Temporary Bull Scenario)Here is another scenario where Bitcoin doesn’t correct until after the Bitcoin Gold fork. In this scenario, the buying pressure, possibly due to Bitcoin Gold , is too strong to result in a correction to at leat $5k support, resulting in the correction being postponed until after the Bitcoin Gold fork. If this happens, then we have several possibilities as far as wave 5 extensions. Starting from the lowest to highest we have: 1. Extension to retest ATH of $5880 2. Extension to psychological support of $6000 3. Extension to Fibonacci 1.0 of wave 1 of the broader bullish structure ($6300) 4. Extension to Fibonacci 1.236 of wave 1 of the broader bullish structure ($6571) 5. Extension to Fibonacci 0.618 of waves 1-3 of the broader bullish structure ($6922) Then from one of these new ATHs , Bitcoin would likely proceed into a full-blown correction back to one of the trend lines, either the medium-term trend line, or long-term trend line. This correction occurring as we inch closer to the Segwit2x fork deadline on November 18, which has the very real possibility of splitting Bitcoin in two. One thing is almost certain, a deep correction is coming, that will see Bitcoin return to either the medium-term or long-term trend lines. These kinds of recent near-parabolic price movements cannot be maintained indefinitely, especially without establishing supports and an influx of fresh capital.
Long
by dalmazio
4
Establishing Support & Bitcoin GoldAt present, the bull structure above $5k doesn’t have any support. In order for Bitcoin to move higher, it needs to establish support, making the previous $5k resistance zone a support zone. We haven’t done that yet. This is the way of markets, previous resistance becomes subsequent support. Therefore, Bitcoin will be making its way back down to $5k, attempting to establish a $5k support zone. If not now, then soon. My own time preference and expectation is that it makes its way down to test $5k and establish a support zone before the October 25 Bitcoin Gold hardfork. That gives plenty of time for it to then bounce off this support, and move higher, in anticipation of the fork. People want their free Bitcoin Gold afterall. Also important to note is the lower trend line for the recent correction which intersects the $5k price zone just before the October 25 fork. A lot can happen in crypto in a week. After October 25, we will need to re-evaluate market conditions to see if Bitcoin will move higher as part of a bull continuation, or lower as part of a deeper Elliot Wave ABC correction. Though, the uncertainty surrounding the November 18 Segwit2x fork, suggests further downward price movement after the Bitcoin Gold fork. Also keep in mind, that prices always return to the trend line, so we may see returns to either the medium-term or long-term trend lines before the November 18 Segwit2x fork. These price movements will most likely affect the rest of the crypto market, with commensurate price action in Ethereum and other alts. I will do a separate but similar analysis for Ethereum shortly. Target I: $5k before October 25 Target II: $5.5k or greater on or just before October 25
Short
by dalmazio
2
Playing Follow-The-Leader & Bitcoin GoldAs many traders realize by now, Bitcoin has been setting the broad trend for all cryptos, especially when it comes to corrections. As some traders have pointed out, large upward price movements in Bitcoin are not always as strongly correlated in the altcoins as large downward price movements. Given this, it helps to look at Bitcoin price activity in order to understand Ethereum price activity. At present, the bullish structure for Bitcoin above $5k doesn’t have any support. In order for Bitcoin to move higher, it needs to establish support, making the previous $5k resistance zone a support zone . We haven’t done that yet. Therefore, Bitcoin will be making its way back down to $5k, attempting to establish a $5k support zone . If not now, then in the near future. Have a a look at my other analysis on Bitcoin establishing support. The question I then have is, if Bitcoin is moving down to $5k to establish a support zone , what would be the corresponding price of Ethereum? If we look at Ethereum’s previous Elliot Wave ABC correction in mid September, we see that Ethereum returned to the long-term trend line , and a little beyond. That long-term trend line intersects the current price action at around the $260 mark. Aditionally, $250 represents a support zone which was established early in the recent bull , shortly after the deep correction in mid September. It would make sense for Ethereum to test and confirm this support zone before proceeding higher, while at the same time returning to the long-term trend line . Also important to note is the lower trendline for the recent correction which intersects the $250 price zone before the October 25 fork . But we can use Elliott Wave analysis to confirm this thinking. The recent bull trend has topped at about $353. The recent steep drop to the $287 support area corresponds to the A corrective wave. The recent recovery corresponds to the B wave. Now using Elliot Wave theory we get a 1.0 Fibonacci extension of wave A down to almost exactly $250, just below the trend line . My time preference for this price target is before the October 25 Bitcoin Gold hard fork . The reason is, just prior to the fork , Bitcoin will likely rally, as people want their free Bitcoin Gold . And Ethereum will likely rally with Bitcoin, as will many altcoins, though perhaps not quite as strongly, if recent events are any indication. After October 25 we will need to re-evaluate, but the Segwit2x fork on November 18 is a potential source of friction for Bitcoin . We may well begin to see a divergence in price between Bitcoin and Ethereum and other alts as we approach this later deadline. Target: $250 or below before October 25
Short
by dalmazio
Schrodinger’s Cat: Two Realities (Part II: Bull)I'm including the same analysis here as for the sister post (Part 1: Bear). I've published them separately as overlaying bear and bull scenarios on the same chart can get kind of messy. It seems there is a region of both charts that overlap in such a way that both the bear and bull view can be supported in this region simultaneously. But as soon as we exit this region of space-time, the two realities collapse into one. Which one? That’s the question. From the bear perspective, the region of interest is the region just after completion of wave 1 of the C wave which we have just begun. This region is the wave 2 correction of wave 1. At the end of a typical wave 2 (fib. 0.5 to 0.618 retracement) we would expect to then reverse downwards with wave 3 of the broader C wave. If instead, we continue to move upward passed the start of wave 1 (from the bear perspective), then it’s looking more like a bull, and the bull chart takes over (at least for now). I say, “at least for now” because it’s still possible that we could be in a B wave, and the C wave has not yet begun. So Schrodinger’s Cat may still be hiding in another smaller box. This bear view will be tenable until the B wave passes too far beyond the X wave, perhaps $4360, which represents the fib. 1.382 extension of wave A. at which point, the cat exits the box and room (bull seems likely). For expanded flat ABC corrections, which this appears to be one, the usual B extension of wave A is 1.236, so we’ve been generous with 1.382. But let’s be safe, and say $4400 as the point of (virtually) no return. From the bull perspective, the same region of interest occurs after completion of the wave (ii) correction of wave (i) of the broader wave 3. At the completion of wave (ii) we are at the same point, in a parallel universe, that we are for the bear view at the completion of wave 1 of the broader C wave. At this point, bear and bull may proceed mano a mano for a short time in an upward movement. From the bear perpsective, we are correcting wave (i) of the broader C wave, from the bull perspective, we are beginning wave (iii) of the broader wave 3. Then, the moment of truth, where Schrodinger’s cat leaps from the box shrieking as it navigates the chasm of existence vs. non-existence, as one reality begins to collapse into oblivion. That point: $4277 (current swing high). If we pass this point, the bull view survives. If we about-face before reaching this point, the bear view survives. Okay, “oblivion” is a slight exggeration. One of the bull or bear views don’t *really* collapse into oblivion, one or the other is rather increasingly phasing out of the possibility of existence. It’s possible, for example, that the cat that jumped out of the box was the real cat’s fake double, a doppleganger of sorts, to test the waters of reality. Not until we move below the $3490 point (previous swing low) will most of the bull view’s sense of self actually dissolve. But it will still maintain enough of a semblance of identity to cling to the belief that it still exists, until the low of $3k. Then it’s good-bye for a while, until a more authentic version of itself, its true self, appears, like the phoenix from out of the ashes. In short, watch the current downward movement, and the following upward movement, very closely. For both we should continue down to the $3800-$4000 region. Then we should reverse upwards. If we then continue upwards beyond the recent swing high ($4277) we are more likely in a bull. Instead, if we reverse before then back down, we are more likely in a bear. And if neither of the above scenarious come to pass, then there may be something more sinister at work. A third unexpected reality, which shall remain unnamed.
Long
by dalmazio
Schrodinger’s Cat: Two Realities (Part I: Bear)I decided to create two parallel reality charts (also applies to Ethereum & company). One for the bear view, and one for the bull view. What I found was interesting. I'll publish them as two separate ideas, as overlaying bear and bull scenarios on the same chart can get kind of messy. It seems there is a region of both charts that overlap in such a way that both the bear and bull view can be supported in this region simultaneously. But as soon as we exit this region of space-time, the two realities collapse into one. Which one? That’s the question. From the bear perspective, the region of interest is the region just after completion of wave 1 of the C wave which we have just begun. This region is the wave 2 correction of wave 1. At the end of a typical wave 2 (fib. 0.5 to 0.618 retracement) we would expect to then reverse downwards with wave 3 of the broader C wave. If instead, we continue to move upward passed the start of wave 1 (from the bear perspective), then it’s looking more like a bull, and the bull chart takes over (at least for now). I say, “at least for now” because it’s still possible that we could be in a B wave, and the C wave has not yet begun. So Schrodinger’s Cat may still be hiding in another smaller box. This bear view will be tenable until the B wave passes too far beyond the X wave, perhaps $4360, which represents the fib. 1.382 extension of wave A. at which point, the cat exits the box and room (bull seems likely). For expanded flat ABC corrections, which this appears to be one, the usual B extension of wave A is 1.236, so we’ve been generous with 1.382. But let’s be safe, and say $4400 as the point of (virtually) no return. From the bull perspective, the same region of interest occurs after completion of the wave (ii) correction of wave (i) of the broader wave 3. At the completion of wave (ii) we are at the same point, in a parallel universe, that we are for the bear view at the completion of wave 1 of the broader C wave. At this point, bear and bull may proceed mano a mano for a short time in an upward movement. From the bear perpsective, we are correcting wave (i) of the broader C wave, from the bull perspective, we are beginning wave (iii) of the broader wave 3. Then, the moment of truth, where Schrodinger’s cat leaps from the box shrieking as it navigates the chasm of existence vs. non-existence, as one reality begins to collapse into oblivion. That point: $4277 (current swing high). If we pass this point, the bull view survives. If we about-face before reaching this point, the bear view survives. Okay, “oblivion” is a slight exggeration. One of the bull or bear views don’t *really* collapse into oblivion, one or the other is rather increasingly phasing out of the possibility of existence. It’s possible, for example, that the cat that jumped out of the box was the real cat’s fake double, a doppleganger of sorts, to test the waters of reality. Not until we move below the $3490 point (previous swing low) will most of the bull view’s sense of self actually dissolve. But it will still maintain enough of a semblance of identity to cling to the belief that it still exists, until the low of $3k. Then it’s good-bye for a while, until a more authentic version of itself, its true self, appears, like the phoenix from out of the ashes. In short, watch the current downward movement, and the following upward movement, very closely. For both we should continue down to the $3800-$4000 region. Then we should reverse upwards. If we then continue upwards beyond the recent swing high ($4277) we are more likely in a bull. Instead, if we reverse before then back down, we are more likely in a bear. And if neither of the above scenarious come to pass, then there may be something more sinister at work. A third unexpected reality, which shall remain unnamed.
Short
by dalmazio
3
Eur/Gbp short term buy Long-term if we look at the daily structure, I think the pair is going down to 0.82-0.84. I don`t usually trade counter-trend moves but, this one here looks rather attractive for a short-term buy. As I see it, the price is consolidating in a flat (possible an expanding flat), and if my analysis is correct, we have to go up for a C wave. I will open my position at market price with a tiny stop and with a minimum target of 100 pips at 0.89 and the second target at 0.8980. You never know how far the correction might go, so I am not sure it will reach the second target, but reaching the first one is very very probable if structure behaves as projected.
Long
by MarcuDan
Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami Only Half Over?The move to $4k invalidated some key requirements of Elliott Wave Theory in regards to subwave numbering of the ABC corrective wave. Therefore, we need to re-analyze and re-number waves. There are two possibilities here. The first is that the ABC corrective wave has completed and that we are in the early stages of a bull trend. The second is that the ABC corrective wave is even deeper than originally thought, and we are just nearing the end of corrective subwave B of the ABC correction. However, market analysis doesn’t only consist of technical analysis, we also need to consider fundamental analysis, and market sentiment. The three pillars of market analysis. Fundamentals are weak, given the political environment in China, and the announcement by the Chinese government that all crypto exchanges will need to be closed by end of Sept. with a grace period being given to a couple exchanges to the end of Oct. What this means is that there will likely be a large migration of volume to other asian markets, likely Korea, Japan, and others. In addition, it is also highly likely, that many Chinese will just sell and withdraw their Chinese Yuan, and so this news is highly bearish for Bitcoin and all crypto in general, as Bitcoin sets the overall market trend. Market sentiment is still quite bearish. There is a market-wide feeling of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. There is a feeling of distrust of the recent bull move, seeing it as a kind of bull trap before even deeper lows are realized. It seems many are quite content to sit on the sidelines, waiting it out until things stabilize and there aren’t so many contradictory signals. Given this, I am of the view that we are very mush still entrenched in a bear market and the second scenario that we are moving to deeper lows is much more likely. In this context, it appears that we are nearing the end of the B wave of a larger ABC correction. This B wave has a notorious reputation for being a bull trap, as it can appear quite aggressive. We may still have some room to continue the B wave to the $4100 or $4200 range, but when it finishes, we should begin the C wave of the ABC correction. And this wave has the potential to bring us down to somewhere between the $1800 and $2500 area. So the ABC correction looks very roughly like this: A wave: $5k-$3k B wave: $3k-$4k C wave: $4k-$2k Preliminary price targets for wave (II) correspond to wave (I) fib. retracements of 0.5 and 0.618 giving $2475 and $1835. In addition, we have the 1.0 extension of wave A at $2081. On top of that, the long-term trend line (1d) intersects this price territory at around the $2500-$2600 level. And the last time we had a major correction (40%), we closed about $100 below this trend line for a few periods (over half a day) before reversing. Also, establishing a parallel descending trend channel for the current ABC correction, shows that we can reach our targets without ever leaving this channel. Lastly, experimenting with the Fibonacci sprial tool shows how these price targets can touch the spiral with target lows reached sometime in very early October. The chart is scaled so that this fib. spiral aligns with the fib. time-based extension tool, for calculating wave C as the time-based fib. 1.0 extension of wave A (or at least it was, but publishing seems to have re-scaled it slightly and moved the spiral just short of the fib. 1.0 vertical). Target I: Wave (II) = intersection of long-term (1d) trend-line ($2575) Target II: Wave (II) = 0.5 x Wave (I) ($2475) Target III: Wave C = 1.0 x Wave A ($2093) Target IV: Wave (II) = 0.618 x Wave (I) ($1835)
Short
by dalmazio
10
Twin Sister: Ethereum Corrective Tsunami Only Half Over?This analysis is very similar to my recent Bitcoin analysis (twin sister). It seems all cryptos are generally following Bitcoin’s price movements in this major correction. So you can apply the ideas here to pretty much any crypto. I’ll do this analysis separately for Ethereum so you can see just how similar they are. The move passed $267 invalidated some key requirements of Elliott Wave Theory in regards to subwave numbering of the ABC corrective wave. Therefore, we need to re-analyze and renumber waves. There are two possibilities here. The first is that the ABC corrective wave has completed and that we are in the early stages of a bull trend. The second is that the ABC corrective wave is even deeper than originally thought, and we are just nearing the end of corrective subwave B of the ABC correction. However, market analysis doesn’t only consist of technical analysis, we also need to consider fundamental analysis, and market sentiment. The three pillars of market analysis. Fundamentals are weak, given the political environment in China, and the announcement by the Chinese government that all crypto exchanges will need to be closed by end of Sept. with a grace period being given to a couple exchanges to the end of Oct. What this means is that there will likely be a large migration of volume to other asian markets, likely Korea, Japan, and others. In addition, it is also highly likely, that many Chinese will just sell and withdraw their Chinese Yuan, and so this news is highly bearish for Bitcoin and Ethereum and all cryptos in general, as Bitcoin sets the overall market trend. Market sentiment is still quite bearish. There is a market-wide feeling of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. There is a feeling of distrust of the recent bull move, seeing it as a kind of bull trap before even deeper lows are realized. It seems many are quite content to sit on the sidelines, waiting it out until things stabilize and there aren’t so many contradictory signals. Given this, I am of the view that we are very mush still entrenched in a bear market and the second scenario that we are moving to deeper lows is much more likely. It appears that we are nearing the end of the B wave of a larger ABC correction. This B wave has a notorious reputation for being a bull trap, as it can appear quite aggressive. We may still have some room to continue the B wave a little above $300, but when it finishes, we should begin the C wave of the ABC correction. And this wave has the potential to bring us down to the lows of the previous major correction ($138). So the ABC correction looks very roughly like this: A wave: $400-$200 B wave: $200-$300 C wave: $300-$100 (or perhaps a little higher) Preliminary price targets for wave 2 correspond to wave 1 fib. retracements of 0.764, 0.854, and 1.0 giving $199, $176 and $138. In addition, we have the 0.618 and 1.0 extension of wave A at $179 and $103. On top of this, the 200 day moving average (1d candlesticks) passes just above the target price territory. Also, establishing a parallel descending trend channel for the current ABC correction, shows that we can reach all of our targets without ever leaving this channel. Lastly, experimenting with the Fibonacci sprial tool shows how these price targets can touch the spiral with target lows reached sometime in very early October. The chart is scaled so that this fib. spiral aligns with the fib. time-based extension tool, for calculating wave C as the time-based fib. 1.0 extension of wave A. Target I: Wave 2 ≈ 0.764 x Wave 1 ($199) Target II: Wave C ≈ 0.618 x Wave A ($179) Target III: Wave 2 ≈ 0.854 x Wave 1 ($176) Target IV: Wave 2 ≈ 1.0 x Wave 1 ($138) Target V: Wave C ≈ 1.0 x Wave A ($103)
Short
by dalmazio
13
Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami After-EffectsPrice target of $3000 has been reached. However, movement from $3800 to $3000 took several days to develop, whereas price movement from $3000 to $3800 was parabolic (hours) and therefore highly emotional (FOMO). This kind of parabolic price action is often reversed by an equally parabolic return to where it started. In fact, there is the very real possibility of a double-top which appears to be in the process of forming, which if confirmed at the neckline suggests a return to previous lows, and perhaps testing new lows. Further, there are CCI and Stochastic RSI divergences as shown in the chart, and volume is also decreasing. Together these suggests a reversal is likely, at least down to the double-top neckline, and if the neckline breaks, then back down to previous lows. There is some uncertainty in the Elliott Wave numbering, since the recent rally could be considered a deep subwave 4 counter-correction, before resuming completion of the final leg of corrective wave C, or it could be the beginning of the new upward movement wave, with the ABC correction being complete. The reason I think it is the former is because the rally was formed far too quickly and emotionally. As previously mentioned, parabolic price actions are often followed by their mirror cousins sometime shortly after. Healthy price action usually requires some level of consolidation at their lows or highs before reversing. The relative strength, momentum and volume divergences, as well as forming double-top supports this. If the double-top neckline breaks, then I am looking at price targets in the $3k area. And if the $2927 low is taken out, then I’m looking at targets in the $2734 area, which represents the fib. 0.618 extension of subwaves 1-3 of wave C. Finally, I’m also keeping an eye on deeper lows in the $2475 area corresponding to the fib. 0.5 retracement of wave (I), which also intersects the long-term trend line. We now have some reference points for retesting. Be cautious, and don’t jump in too deep too quick. Leave something on the table in case prices go even lower than expected.
Short
by dalmazio
21
Litecoin Catching a Wave: Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami?There is a pattern across all cryptos that began on Sept. 8, specifically the bearish pennant. What’s remarkable is that it’s occurring across all cryptos. This suggests to me that there is a move underway, which will affect all cryptos. I’ve already written about the Bitcoin tsunami, where I am expecting a correction down to the $3000-$3500 range, and possibly deeper if the conditions are right. Bitcoin dictates the broad bearish or bullish trend of the entire crypto market. Within that broad structure, all other cryptos can have their own unique bearish or bullish trends or counter-trends. But they are comparatively much smaller movements within the broader picture. When there are large movements in Bitcoin, it brings everything with it. Add to this the bearish pennant across all cryptos, the steep loss of momentum and volume, and we have a recipe for a deep market-wide correction. The targets I’m providing are for the Fibonacci Wave III retracement levels for Wave IV and Wave A extension levels of Wave C of the corrective ABC Elliott Wave. The deeper the Bticoin correction, the deeper these levels get activated for Litecoin. Target I: Wave IV ≈ Fib. 0.382 x Wave I ($63) Target II: Wave IV ≈ Fib. 0.5 x Wave I ($55)* Target III: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.0 x Wave A ($50)* Target IV: Wave IV ≈ Fib. 0.618 x Wave I ($46)* Target V: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.236 x Wave A ($43)
Short
by dalmazio
9
Ethereum Catching a Wave: Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami?It appears we may be in the middle of a larger corrective ABC Elliott Wave, rather than at the end of one. On a related note, I was looking at the BTCUSD chart, and saw what seemed to be a large corrective ABC Elliot Wave which we are right in the middle of, having only recently begun the C leg. A correction that can bring us down to $3000-$3600, and possibly lower given the right conditions. But switching between the various USD currency pairs, I noticed that the same descending pennant pattern is showing up in ALL crypto-USD pair charts! What this tells me is that the correction that is happening is bigger than originally thought. I surmised it would be more-or-less limited to Bitcoin. But now I see that it will affect all crypto markets. Kind of like a corrective tsunami that we are presently right in the middle of, but has gradually snuck up on us and cloaked itself as a lower-level correction. And all the hype, and painted rockets, and visions of the moon blinded us to the fact that it was there. Insight: Bitcoin dictates the broad bearish or bullish trend of the entire crypto market. Within that broad structure, all other cryptos can have their own individual bearish or bullish trends or counter-trends. But they are comparatively much smaller movements within the broader picture. When there are large movements in Bitcoin, it brings everything with it. Given this, the recent ETHUSD correction can be seen in a new light. I originally believed that ETHUSD was essentially finished with this correction, and it was preparing for upward movement, eventually to new highs. However, recent price action confused me, and coupled with some good posts from other members, caused me to look a little deeper. And if Bitcoin is the crypto that “rules them all, and in the darkness binds them” then a deep correction of Bitcoin is going to have powerful effects across all crypto markets, bringing all markets down with it. Just look at the big correction in July. Bitcoin, and all cryptos recovered, and will certainly do so again, but it’s a heck of a ride that we may be able to derive some profit from. In light of this, the recent ETHUSD price action can also be seen as: 1. Correction from ~$390 to $267 as the A leg of a giant ABC correction. 2. The bullish rebound back to $340 as the B leg of the ABC correction. 3. And finally, the movement down from $340 to where we are now ($300) as a portion of the way down the C leg of the ABC correction. We will need to watch supports closely. If $265 is taken out in the coming days, then this larger correction will likely be in play. And in this case we can be looking at prices for ETHUSD in the $213 range, as this will correspond to a fib. 1.0 extension of leg A of the large ABC correction. If this support is taken out, we are next looking at prices in the $183 range as the fib. 1.236 extension of leg A. And if this support is also taken out, then, heaven help us, we are looking once again at the lows we established during the previous mega-correction in July, namely, prices in the $135 range as the fib. 1.618 extension of leg A. We can also look at this from the perspective of a parent wave correction for comparison. Specifically, as the wave 2 correction of a large wave 1 that began in July after that correction. Price movements also support this Elliott Wave numbering, so we should consider it. In this case, Elliot Wave guidelines suggest a price correponding to the fib. 0.5 retracement of wave 1 giving $267 which we’ve already reached. If this price is taken out, then the fib. 0.618 retracement of wave 1 gives $236. And if this is taken out, then the fib. 0.764 retracement of wave 1 gives $199. And if this is taken out, the fib. 0.854 tracement of wave 1 gives $176. (continued in update below...)
Short
by dalmazio
1
Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami Underway? (Zoom Out II)This is the same chart as previously, except zoomed way out, so you can see the broader Elliott Waves in context, with the purple wave being the largest completed "genesis" wave which we are now correcting. Targets are shown to be $3000-$3600 based on standard Elliott Wave Theory. However, this correction has the potential to go much deeper. For example, the $2500 level, and even the $2000 level if conditions are right. Be cautious. Target: $3000-$3600
Short
by dalmazio