Testing out a theory with BTCUSD I am testing out this theory using Elliot Wave Theory, ABC corrections and a 15-day cycle with BTCUSD on Bitfinex.
If it holds true, then watch this space further. If not, then don't worry, it was just a theory!
Abccorrection
SHORT the ABC Correction on NASDAQ: $AMRS | #Amyris!Short the ABC Correction on NASDAQ: $AMRS | #Amyris! The odds of it holding over the 200MA is extremely unlikely!
Ziliqa / Bitcoin (ZIL/BTC): ABC Correction On The Way?Find Winning Trades In Seconds >> efcindicator.com (Special Discount)
Ziliqa / Bitcoin (ZIL/BTC): All The Supports, Pivots & Resistences – Short-Term
JOHNSON & JOHNSON (JNJ): ABC Correction In Progress?Find Winning Trades In Seconds >> efcindicator.com (Special Discount)
We just saw a submerged crossover bear flag (white bar). This corroborates with the continuation of ABC correction.
FTSE 100: In The Middle Of A Minor ABC Correction?Find Winning Trades In Seconds >> efcindicator.com (Special Discount)
MACD is already making an interesting move suggesting a reversal, but it looks like we're going down a bit more until the RSI indicates a safer margin to jump in.
SPY H&S in ABC Correction EW 4: To Retest 24 Dec LowChart says all. updated prior post with corrected line positions given interval price changes. C wave length and duration mimics A wave. The H&S pattern appears to be an extension of the correction but note it is also a pennant, or continuation pattern. The trend: still down, entering a fifth intermediate of primary third wave. expect double bottom to retest 233 low. From there it should give a V-notched spike formation and a more powerful rally- perhaps near-vertical back up to or over 260-264. Get ready for fireworks! More to come. GLTA, HNY!
As always, for education and amusement not investment advice, trade at your own risk!
Bitcoin ($BTC): Complex Corrective ABCBased on Elliott Wave Theory...after impulsive Wave-I should be followed by corrective ABC pattern. I expect complex correction now.
Now we have to wait for the retracement, how current correction will works, on which basis it will be possible to estimate further price development.
If you like my TA, pls. hit that "Like" button, follow me or leave your comments. Thx.
US 30 May Be Headed for a Very Unmerry XmasTwain observed in Pudd'nhead Wilson;
"October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February."
How about a December crash? If this model plays out Santa will by cryin'.
Notice rejection this week at TL. Downtrend continues. "Pie-in-the-sky" forecasts of Sand P 3000 and DowJonzed 30,000 are not likely at this juncture. Bull traps!
Retracements have been between .382 - 0.50, notice the Fibo bars (note arrows). If we enjoy a similar pattern on the next bounce could climb back as high as 25,500 or turn back sooner at 24400. There's a short entry window 100 pips wide.
If a five-wave complex down wave emerges the pattern could look like this projection, and a 4th wave might give another bounce before capitulation. Or not.. maybe it just breaks. There seems to be no bottom in this market, every day is a chance for 600-800 pip selloff. It's getting closer to real panic in my humble opine.
One day soon will go off 2K... GLTA
This ain't advice, it's just a funny looking chart with mostly random squiggles, they probably have no meaning, invest at your own risk!
#Twitter |$TWTR 's #ABCcorrection couldn't be ANYMORE OBVIOUS!#Twitter |$TWTR 's #ABCcorrection couldn't be ANYMORE OBVIOUS!
US 30 ?Bear Flag forming Again? May be EW4 in downtrend- Danger!JW if this 3-day rally is another fakeout, has earmarks of a bear flag rally, very hard to call a bottom yet, consolidating, fluctuating.
Trading at area where price has provoked bear reaction, the EW model suggests we might expect retest of lows, and possibly a lower low.
Filling the gap down from 249 was expected, top of the gap = pivot & resistance; breakout above this level would signal a move up.
Bulling up through 250 would invalidate the model as 4th wave shouldn't break above low from 1st wave.
This isn't investment advice, just an idea, trade at your own risk; GLTA!
BITCOIN (#BTC): Impulse A-WaveBTC is performing impulse A-Wave with prospect of going to $4100 again.
Invalidated if $4600 successful break out happened.
The fractal that killed ethereumAt the moment the ETHUSD bounce closely resembles a typical bearish bounce... If it decides to dump in a similar fashion to BTC in the start of 2015 it might just be the best long term buying opportunity since $6.
NZDUSD Retracement TargetThe pair has completed a bearish Crab pattern around0.6870 after a 5 waves impulse from 7 Oct low.
0.6820 could be the immediate support but I think 3 waves correction to 0.6700 and below is more likely.
Keep an eye at that level and watch for buy setup.
SPX Bear Trend in Running Flat; Soon to End?Index might be in an expanded irregular flat EW, with descending wedge an indicator of diminishing supply as the bears grind down to the 0.62 Fibo retrace line.
In Elliott Wave theory, in a strong bull market the ABC correction 'C' wave can terminate above the bottom of A, and may appear as an expanded flat correction, rather than a deeper C that carries below the A termination, or a so-called 'running flat.'
It's really dangerous to short these, it's like trying to pick up dimes in front of a bulldozer.
Expect a strong bounce at the apex of the wedge- within a day or two, if no break down. Dow closed at 253 support and Sand P just above the 274 Fibo line.
After two weeks of bear control it seems the bulls are setup for a powerful rally. Don't get caught short... of course possibility exists for further break down.
IF we do get a break down from this formation, it would be extremely bearish and could herald a bear market. IF we get the bounce the Bulls will roar back.
Stay tuned!
As always, this is not investment advice, trade at your own risk!
Forex link to Expanded Flat Correction Theory:
www.dailyfx.com
Added ABC EW to this chart (Double-click to view- a bit buggy):
SPY larger flat for upside eventually? Bearish for nowI think the overall pattern is bullish, but we will get a few more moves down of selling if my analysis is correct!
Let's see!
US 30 Correction may NOT be over folks- Risk = High!We got a symmetric triangle in the 1hrs on 10/17 with arrowhead exactly on the 0.50 Fibo retrace line. Pretty spooky and not yet Halloween.
In chart an ABC EW correction wave shows a suggested pattern IF this Dog is gonna lie down again it will be soon- make or break.
Seems an unlikely coincidence that we got a stalled rally exactly at 0.50. Call me crazy but... I think maybe the fat lady didn't sing yet, folks.
That said, this could be alternate EW wave 3 starting if it break up from here.
If it break up then we got a new impulse and it will bull.
If it be red futures on Thursday morning, sailor take warning, get out your puts, she's goin down then.
If this occurs, C wave will be about same as A was so another 1400 pt drop might stop around 24300-24400.
I closed out all my longs today and sit on cash, risk is extremely high atmimo, for both long or shorts; can break either way but it's gonna break soon- look out!
As always this post for your amusement and education only and does not constitute investment advice; good luck!
Ford finally broke the corrective wave low! Time for the upside?NYSE:F has been in a weekly corrective downtrend for the last 4 years. We finally broke the A wave low. Many analysts consider this a "strong sell". Now will crowd psychology think this price is a bargain and start buying? WIll the funds do the same thing?
Time will definitely tell! Personally I will be looking for any chance to go long, as long as there is a valid setup. There is a buy setup brewing on the 15 min chart.
Will this be the start to the upside, or do we have some more room to go down?
What do you think?
Thanks for looking, trade responsibly!
US 30 in Complex ABC Correction WaveThis is a complex ABC correction coming off the August highs. Did not quite get to the Gartley Fibo at 26268, but within 100 pts of it for Fibo 1.55 will have to do.
There is a clear corrective 5 wave impulse evident in the A down leg, which is an organized, complex actionary impulse (labeled 1-2-3-4-5). This is not like the WXY pattern we saw in early August, it's true corrective trend actionary impulse and will likely carry index to significantly lower levels. This represents early technical breakdown.
We are near the end of countertrend reactionary B wave, which challenged Fibo 0.786 and then again came up to 0.618 before falling back.
This is a bull trap reaction wave.
Most recently, thanks to the Donald, a third rally attempt Friday to reclaim the highs was crushed. Thanks be to Trumptweets!
Given the constant tweeting, ongoing trade uncertainty and most importantly, cash outflows from mutual funds as parents return from vacation and withdraw assets to pay for prep schools and new cars for their college kids, it seems unlikely the markets will rally high enough to challenge the August low-volume highs.
It's no secret; people take their money out of the markets in September because they want to spend it. Real simple- seasonality.
And what better time to cash out than at the alltime high?!
'A' wave carried Dow -362; B retraced 224 pts at Fibo 0.618; C will be rough, at least as deep as A length, quite possibly 1.618xA = -586, as low as index 25,335 (target zone).
Look for a weak rally attempt early in the week of 10 Sep; before tweet Friday a rally was starting up and it is likely the bulls will try again once more.
Look for H&S and ascending wedges as the market struggles to regain higher price levels to enter shorts. Short entry above 26000 will likely be profitable.
As always, I post these opinions purely for speculative amusement and education, this does not in any way constitute investment advice;
trade at your own risk!
Good luck!
XAG/USD Advanced Analysis- EducationalYou might have to look at this for a little bit to see what I'm saying. I'm simply illustrating that Silver is still on its "B" wave. The reason I say this is because, after our "W" of the larger degree, it has been in what seems to be an obvious corrective swing pattern. It broke the equal length-1.236 extension of smaller wxy pattern (which should not be invalidated until break of 1.618 with price action confirmation) and went to pitchfork and equal length in time to "A".... so that is where it sits as of now. It is approaching supply level. So, my point is this. If it were to keep extending down, that should just mean a larger move up in the upcoming future. It can break the low and take off up for "C", it can pull up from right here for a lower shoulder. But my point is, if you have capital and patience, you have an extremely high probability of silver pulling up for a long wave. If it were to extend all the way down to 12.00-10.00 range that is a no brainer investment to me, so would they let it drop that low? Doesn't make sense. Could it take years? Could it consolidate in a sideways range? Yes, but that should just be an accumulation phase to go up. A lot of people hop on an "A" wave. Plenty of people probably bought Silver as it was shooting up and have been trapped, many of them probably closed and took a loss. That's why we get these long complex "B" waves. Is anything Guaranteed in any market?.. No. There's just probable and improbable based on how the market moves. What did Warren Buffet say?
"In the short term, the market is a popularity contest. In the long term, the market is a weighing machine."
"If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value."
"I've seen more people fail because of liquor and leverage -- leverage being borrowed money. You really don't need leverage in this world much. If you're smart, you're going to make a lot of money without borrowing."
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." -- Warren Buffett
SPX Imminent retest of channel support: Rejection from ATHCompare to 6/14 Harami cross. Identical price behavior 8/21-23 c/w 6/12-14 and 8/7-9. Slapped down hard from high channel retest after 8/21 high.
All the Doji have been seen- pin bar, shooting stars, Harami crosses, engulfing bears, Red Shooting star today. Perfect setup for lower and soon- imminent.
Today I observed a bear flag all afternoon following the sharp intraday correction on 15m charts. Daily chart on 8/23 looks eerily similar to annual chart, past six months!
Expect a harder test than last time. Probably at least to 2791 as shown in graph, maybe lower; WS2 at ~2777. Gonna be a choppy week.
We have convergence of twin C waves bearing down from 08 Feb and 27 Jun A wave downspikes, rolling together now will bear down hard.
Batten down the hatches- good luck!
This isn't investement advice and I ain't no advisor. This post for amusement and education only. Enjoy!
Bitcoin is due for a dropDear all, this is my first post on Bitcoin but probably won't be the last. This will be a short simple take on the recent past and future of BTC. It has been evident since June 24th that a drop is coming for the coin. This was evident because negative RSI divergence of a bullish, or in this case bearish nature is a clear indicator of the strength of a move up or down. We can see from a orange upward sloping trend line in the chart that price was moving up while another orange downward sloping trend line in the RSI rectangle showed us that the strength of the move was weak- bearish divergence. Based on Fibonacci levels derived from the recent run-up the current A-B-C correction we are in may terminate with BTC reaching 6800 USD before resuming upside.
