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AUDUSD : Corrective Triangle Pattern Breakout ( Ascending )In AUDUSD we have ascending triangle formation, on simpler logic after every consolidation there will be a good move which happens out of breakout. I'm not strict elliott follower, I just use that for my analysis to support the decisions I'm gonna make, not to determine direction also. Sometimes rarely I used that to determine direction of Market. Its just My style of trading elliots and to keep complex things out of it. The above chart you can consider as simple ascending triangle pattern and enter the breakout direction or if you go by elliot rules wait for downside breakout. If we enter on upside breakout have strict stops, to avoid whipsaws or false breakouts bcos AUDUSD is in bear mode for quite sometime. My Opinion : Any direction Breakout is fine for Me to initiate the Trade. Happy Trading !
by InsiderB
4
XMRBTC: Correction ContinuesWith my update yesterday, everything started well then things started to run out of steam. As I mentioned in my update yesterday, if we cannot reach at least 0.0220 by the time that the hourly RSI rolls over then we'd need to re-evaluate. We got close, reaching 0.0219 but then we ran out of steam and momentum rolled over. Hopefully everyone followed my advice and was able to get out before the larger drop. I closed at 0.0215. If you did not get out then you are in luck... The primary pattern now appears to be a WXY correction with X forming an ABCDE triangle. Wave D's low should hold at 0.0190 as it bounced nicely off the the triangle's bottom trendline. I now expect prices to rise shortly to hit the top of the trendline (or slightly overshoot it) to complete Wave E at which point prices should fall violently down in Wave Y. If you were not able to get out of your LONG, prices should get back into the 0.0208 - 0.0212 range therefore I would hold and get out then. If you want to be aggressive, enter a short position in the 0.0208 - 0.0212 range (red box) with a stop at 0.020 (top of Wave C). If you want to be more conservative, enter a SHORT position on an hourly candle close outside of the bottom triangle trendline. Wave Y targets range from 0.0162768 (50% of W) to 0.01122678 (100% of W). Better Wave Y targets will be discussed once the ABCDE triangle completes and the bottom of the triangle trendline is broken.
Short
by Volatile_Victory
2
BTCUSD: Final Leg Down of Wave (4)? Or further to go?Our last post highlighted the idea that Wave (E) may not have been completed (see related link) and it appears that alternative has come to fruition. We were expecting a move down to the 61.8% fib ratio of Wave (C) but we have moved well past that. The next target would be $613.58 which we may have just hit (or almost hit) while I am typing this. This would make a perfect LONG opportunity as we have very strong resistance in the $610-$614 area: The bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart is at $611.39 Wave (C) low was $610.10 The 78.6% fib length of Wave (C) is $613.58 Five waves down can be counted on this latest drop therefore we should get relief soon (if not immediately). Place your stops slightly below $610 and we have a potential for a large move up with minimal risk to the down side. (Current price is $621) If we hit our stops around $610 then it appears that the alternate wave count as denoted on the chart in red is in play. This alternative would have us going down further to conclude Wave (Y) and ultimately Wave (4). If our $610 stop is hit then we will post another update outlining targets and alternatives.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
2
BTCUSD:Quick Wave (E) UpdateAs of my last post, numerous signs pointed to Wave (E) being complete. With this morning's move down, it re-opens the idea that Wave (E) is not complete (although it still could). If Wave (E) is not complete then we have a good target for when it may complete. The price target would be $630.09 which is the 61.8% fib ratio of Wave (C). Typically Wave (E) will be 61.8% the length of Wave (C) which takes us to that 630.09 target. The time target is July 27th at around 8AM EST (noon GMT). This time is exactly the same time length of Wave (D). Fib ratio of 1.0 (60 bars on the 4 hour chart). Likewise, this is exactly the fib ratio of 2.0 of Wave (C) which was 30 bars on the 4 hour chart. If Wave (E) is not complete, which is what I'm leaning towards then hitting $630.09 on July 27th at noon GMT makes a perfect target where we can place a buy order followed by a stop loss at $609.78 which is the bottom of Wave (C). If the low of Wave (C) is broken then that would be bearish and we would need to re-evaluate our waves.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
3
BTCUSD: Contracting Triangle ABCDE Complete. Wave 4 As Well?Several signs are pointing to the ABCDE contracting triangle being complete: Looking at the daily oscillator, you can see that each wave in the ABCDE corresponds to prior to the daily oscillator's fast (gray) line passing the slow (purple) line. The daily oscillator's fast line just passed the slow line giving us confirmation that Wave (E) should be complete. The fibonacci time of the (E) wave is 1 (identical) to the (B) wave time. Price has bounced off the top of the Ichimoku Cloud's resistance which is a bullish sign. Confidence in the ABCDE contracting triangle now being complete is extremely high due to the above reasons. The ultimate question is if wave (4) is now complete. If wave (4) is complete then wave (5) has begun which should take us up above the wave (3) high of $789.78. The first confirmation of wave (5) having begun will be price exceeding the wave (D) high of $683.20. If wave (4) is not complete then the end of the contracting triangle is wave (W) and we should see a three wave up (X) followed by another move down to complete wave (4). I would say there is a 60% chance that wave (4) is complete and a 40% chance that we experience an extended wave (4) WXY pattern. Either way, you should be long at this time and if we see a three wave pattern up with a bearish oscillator reversal then we'll take profits before the move down.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory
BTCUSD: Wave 4 Contracting Triangle StatusMy previous chart is still in play although the timing may have been off. There are currently three scenarios in play: Wave 4 has already concluded and Wave (5) up has begun. (I do not believe this to be the case since the move up has not been impulsive which would be required for a wave 5) We are still in an ABCDE triangle pattern which is what I have charted. Wave (D) would have concluded with the July 16th high and we are currently in wave (E) down. If this is the current scenario then I would expect for wave (E) to complete within the next 3-7 days followed by an impulsive move up to begin wave (5). The top of the Ichimoku Cloud would make a perfect bottom of wave (E) resistance for the reversal. With my last chart, I cautioned that wave (E) tend to false breakdown which would happen in this scenario as it would require it to break the green trend line from the wave (A) bottom to the wave (C) bottom and which we have followed very closely for the past 7-10 days. The final option is that we are in wave 4 with an extended combination pattern such as WXY. If this is the current scenario then we would be at best slightly greater than half way through it and at worst, only a third of the way through it; meaning it would take a few weeks to resolve before concluding wave (4) down and followed by wave (5) up. If this scenario unfolds then I will post an update. The good news is that regardless of which of these scenarios that are followed that wave (4) will eventually end and wave (5) will take us up past the wave (3) high.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Volatile_Victory