DOW JONES - Completed Pattern. OANDA:US30USD While the OANDA:SPX500USD & OANDA:NAS100USD have been hitting new highs the DOW has struggled and has completed a Double ABCD Gartley pattern on friday and sold off into the close.
Setting up potential downside targets of 38300, 37800 & to complete the bigger pattern @ around 37k.
If we start heading lower on Monday then that could put the wheels in motion for the bigger correction.
Big data out mid week will send it one way or the other.
Enjoy the week.
I will post shorter time frame areas to watch with potential intraday turns points.
AB=CD
EURUSD (1971 analysis) - 23% Crash will follow!EURUSD has been in a long-term downtrend since the financial crisis of 2008. On the chart, we can see that EURUSD started its downtrend at the top of the major rising wedge chart pattern. The rising wedge pattern broke bearish in 2015, and the price retested it in 2018. Since then, the price has been going down and has broken another trendline (2000 - 2022), which is a double breakdown. Right now, there are absolutely no signs of strength on this chart, and I expect a pretty severe 23% crash in the next years.
Does it mean that the DXY index will go up? Definitely yes. The downtrend is confirmed, and from a technical perspective, there is currently pretty much nothing bullish. How to take advantage of this analysis? What you should consider is to avoid long positions and focus on short positions instead to increase the probability of successful trades.
So what are the next major support levels on the way down? I don't really see any major support until 0.87617. This is a strong level because it's the POC (point of control) of the previous mini triangle that was formed during the years 2000 and 2002. I am expecting a pretty strong bounce, but this will probably not be the bottom. The next support is at 0.82311 because this is the major swing low of 2000 and it provides a lot of liquidity. A lot of traders may capitulate around this level. Big players can take advantage of it and buy EUR with a large amount of money.
Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
XAUUSD: Next week we can see bullish dominance: 2000+ pips move!Dear Traders,
Upcoming weeks we can see strong bullish price momentum to continue, price successfully rejected at 2290 and then rebounded strongly. Another confirmation that we have is when price reconfirmed the 2300 area where we saw how strongly price moved. These are the two main confirmation that has given us enough confidence to be sure of how upcoming direction the price can be going towards.
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Bitcoin - Final capitulation before a new ATH (62k)Bitcoin is almost ready for the final capitulation event at 62k. Is this a lifetime opportunity to buy BTC and catch the bottom? Definitely yes, you can do it pretty precisely at 62402 with your limit order. Why is this level so important?
The most important is the 0.618 Fibonacci level that we can measure in the previous impulse wave. Second, we have an unfilled Fair Value GAP (FVGAP) that was created on May 15, 2024, during a significant pump. But with these types of GAPS, they tend to get filled, so the probability is relatively high. Third, we have the Point of Control (POC) of the previous market structure. You can see this level on the volume profile indicator on the left side of the chart.
Levels around 62k are really significant, and we can expect a strong reaction from them. But what about Elliott Wave analysis? My Elliott Wave count suggests, that the previous uptrend is definitely an impulse wave (12345), which gives us more confidence in the overall bull run. Now, the corrective wave (WXY) is in progress, and we need to find its bottom. At this point, we don't really know if it will be a WXY (double three) or WXYXZ (triple three) pattern. But the 0.618 Fibonacci level is a strong support, and we should finish the corrective wave here!
After we finish this corrective wave WXY, we can mark it as wave 2 of a higher impulse wave (higher degree) and prepare for a 3rd wave, which will lead us to an all-time high.
Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
Bitcoin - historical bull trap! + Name your altcoinMake sure you prepare for this huge historical bullish trap on Bitcoin. Why? First, look at the price action. We have a bullish flag, that's what everyone sees. The market makers count every cent on their accounts, and this is a pretty good opportunity for them to make a lot of money by trapping retail traders. What will a typical retail trader do in this situation? Probably buy/long BTC at around 71k to 75k. That's where the whales step in and start selling, sending BTC back to 63k!
Why 63k? This is a strong support because we have an unfilled FVGAP + Point of control (POC) of the previous market structure. I really don't see any bullish sentiment during the summer season, as statistically, Bitcoin has been going sideways.
From the Elliott Wave perspective, we are in wave 5 of the first impulse wave, which is of course very bullish for the long-term, but buying at the end of wave 5 is probably not a good idea. What successful traders generally do is wait for an ABC corrective pattern to form before buying.
In the comment section, name your altcoin, and I will make a technical analysis for you and my opinion! Please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
USDJPY Analysis and Trade OpportunitiesLike I mentioned in our weekend live session, I don't see any BOJ intervention happening soon.
The earliest I’m looking is when the market reaches 158.73, with the next level at 159.66.
Around 157.74 is the level I'll be looking for a buying opportunity using the existing strategy that I've used for many years.
Key Levels:
Potential Intervention Levels :
- 158.73
- 159.66
- Buying Opportunity : Around 157.74
Shorting Opportunities :
1-Hourly Chart :
- Bearish Bat Pattern Completion : 158.15
- ABCD Pattern Completion : 158.39 if the Bearish Bat Pattern does not complete
Strategy :
- Buying at 157.74 : Use the tried and tested strategy that has worked over the years.
- Shorting Opportunities : Monitor the 1-hourly chart for potential Bearish Bat Pattern at 158.15 and ABCD Pattern at 158.39.
What’s your trade plan for USDJPY? Any valuable insights you’d like to share? Comment down below.
EURUSD - Key Area. Will the rally fail?OANDA:EURUSD Completed a small Gartley pattern on Friday, now we look for a rally to see if it's going to fail around the 1.0853-1.0880 area.
There are bigger TF patterns that take it a lot lower with the first one down below 1.0600 and larger pattern below 1.0300.
A move above 1.0950 could send it towards 1.1100 and even 1.1300.
That's why this week is so critical to where we head next.
I will post the weekly AI to see if we can find a CIT Window.
Enjoy the week.
Potential downward on GBPJPYWe have reached a strong resistance level and will look for a market entry upon candle closure confirmation. Additionally, there is a daily divergence on GJ, providing multiple confluences for this trade. We expect the price to move down toward the previous low from which it began its impulsive upward movement.
TA!
ETH - Getting close to Major levels. COINBASE:ETHUSD is moving towards some major levels in time and price.
We have the equal time and price with the August 2022 high, April 2023 high giving us a potential high around the 17th of December.
There are double 1.27% Extension areas from those previous 2 highs around 2300.
The 382 from the ATH @ 2400 and if we break that then the 2600 level will be waiting with double 1.618% Extensions.
Once a top comes in the retracement will be key to the next move.
I will post smaller TF targets shortly.
An interesting run into the end of the year might set up the course for next year.
Enjoy the Week. 👍👍
GOLD - last crash, then a new all time high! (buy here)GOLD is probably preparing for a last small crash to the main support of the expanding triangle in the major timeframe. This is a great opportunity to buy GOLD at the bottom of an expanding triangle because it is also in confluence with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. This Fibonacci level is very strong together with 0.618 because 0.618 + 0.382 = 1. You can buy gold here, or enter a long position on futures with leverage to increase your potential profit.
You probably know that I am very bullish on GOLD for the next few years and expect at least a double in price. After many years of sideways price action, GOLD finally broke out and made a significant new all time high. GOLD seems undervalued and should go higher.
It's always important to look at the Elliott Wave analysis, as it gives us a better understanding of the whole market structure. Where on the map are we currently? On the chart, you can see an impulse wave (12345) and after such move we can expect a corrective structure, such as ABC or WXY. Usually, you want to take a Fibonacci retracement of the previous impulse wave and look for 0.382 FIB or 0.618 FIB. I don't think GOLD will go all the way down to 2155, that would be pretty bearish after the previous breakout to a new all time high.
Buying gold at current levels is definitely a good idea, but if you want better price and timing, I would take the 0.382 FIB. This will also increase your risk-to-reward ratio.
Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.
GILD will be selected for the new Tamiflu vaccine for Pandemic2It's no secret the elite are manufacturing pandemics to herd, destroy and remake society into a neofeudal system controlled by social credit scores. The next pandemic will be H1N1 which has already been shared within the news that milk in the markets has trace amounts of (no worry they say!).
After the establishment rolls out bird-flu for everyone's summer bingo card - Gilead Sciences, the only company that manufactures Tamiflu with options, will be selected to mass create these new vaccines.
The call options on this company are going crazy right now, July, August have a ton of OTM calls being bought, almost like someone is expecting this company to get the greenlight on something major. You could effectively buy .05 OTM calls on this company, but I'd wait a little longer. The TTM squeeze shows the last leg down is being finished. If the market's capitulate a little more, this would be a perfect time to buy those calls for this company.
Microsoft Next High & Target is Channel Top $570, ( AB = CD )Microsoft is Trending within the Channel. Next High and Target is the "Channel Top" at $570. Additionally, the ( AB = CD ) concept indicates that the AB impulse is Equal to the CD impulse.
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USDJPY: Swing Sell Happening! AB=CD PatternFX:USDJPY
Price is currently in process of making AB=CD pattern; after USDJPY created a record Higher High, most of the traders were expecting price to drop heavy and it just did that. After dropping heavily, price made some correction and formed a AB=CD pattern which is where we can expect price to drop exactly in same amount as A to B made. Our final target is 145-147 which will be somewhere 800-1000 pips. Use proper risk management.
GBPJPY: 1000+ Pips Selling Opportunity! What's yours views on itOur previous analysis on GBPJPY has rejected at the top and dropped 300+ pips, however, price jumped back to the initial entry and in our view we think price is just came back to test the liquidity. We still expect a strong bearish move to dominant in coming days. Expecting a strong bullish move on Yen, however the USD data can conflict our views.
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GOLD - Starting another wave up to 2720 (+17%)GOLD is in a strong bull market, that's for sure. The key to success is to trade with a trend to increase the probability of your decisions. GOLD is likely to make a multiyear bull market and can double or triple in price in a few years.
Of course, if you hold GOLD, that's very smart for the upcoming years. But right now, we need to take a look at short-term opportunities for swing and day traders. What I generally recommend is to trade with the bullish trend and employ only long-term strategies. Avoid shorting GOLD in general. As you can see on my chart, we have an ascending parallel channel, and the price is near its dynamic support upward-sloping trendline. What we want to do here is enter a long position.
Also, my Elliott Wave count suggests that GOLD is going to make another 2 huge waves to the upside in the following few weeks. Always start making your Elliott Wave count from the bottom of the trend. This trend started on October 5, 2023. If you see something like (1)(2)(1)(2) at the start of a trend, it is called an Elliott Wave nest, a strong bullish setup. This occurs very often on the stock market and in Bitcoin, so make sure you learn this technique. Overall, I am very bullish on GOLD and if you trade futures, you can make good money with leverage.
Let me know what you think about my analysis, and please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! Thank you, and I wish you successful trades.