Twin Sister: Ethereum Corrective Tsunami Only Half Over?This analysis is very similar to my recent Bitcoin analysis (twin sister). It seems all cryptos are generally following Bitcoin’s price movements in this major correction. So you can apply the ideas here to pretty much any crypto. I’ll do this analysis separately for Ethereum so you can see just how similar they are.
The move passed $267 invalidated some key requirements of Elliott Wave Theory in regards to subwave numbering of the ABC corrective wave. Therefore, we need to re-analyze and renumber waves.
There are two possibilities here. The first is that the ABC corrective wave has completed and that we are in the early stages of a bull trend. The second is that the ABC corrective wave is even deeper than originally thought, and we are just nearing the end of corrective subwave B of the ABC correction. However, market analysis doesn’t only consist of technical analysis, we also need to consider fundamental analysis, and market sentiment. The three pillars of market analysis.
Fundamentals are weak, given the political environment in China, and the announcement by the Chinese government that all crypto exchanges will need to be closed by end of Sept. with a grace period being given to a couple exchanges to the end of Oct. What this means is that there will likely be a large migration of volume to other asian markets, likely Korea, Japan, and others. In addition, it is also highly likely, that many Chinese will just sell and withdraw their Chinese Yuan, and so this news is highly bearish for Bitcoin and Ethereum and all cryptos in general, as Bitcoin sets the overall market trend.
Market sentiment is still quite bearish. There is a market-wide feeling of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. There is a feeling of distrust of the recent bull move, seeing it as a kind of bull trap before even deeper lows are realized. It seems many are quite content to sit on the sidelines, waiting it out until things stabilize and there aren’t so many contradictory signals.
Given this, I am of the view that we are very mush still entrenched in a bear market and the second scenario that we are moving to deeper lows is much more likely.
It appears that we are nearing the end of the B wave of a larger ABC correction. This B wave has a notorious reputation for being a bull trap, as it can appear quite aggressive. We may still have some room to continue the B wave a little above $300, but when it finishes, we should begin the C wave of the ABC correction. And this wave has the potential to bring us down to the lows of the previous major correction ($138).
So the ABC correction looks very roughly like this:
A wave: $400-$200
B wave: $200-$300
C wave: $300-$100 (or perhaps a little higher)
Preliminary price targets for wave 2 correspond to wave 1 fib. retracements of 0.764, 0.854, and 1.0 giving $199, $176 and $138. In addition, we have the 0.618 and 1.0 extension of wave A at $179 and $103.
On top of this, the 200 day moving average (1d candlesticks) passes just above the target price territory.
Also, establishing a parallel descending trend channel for the current ABC correction, shows that we can reach all of our targets without ever leaving this channel.
Lastly, experimenting with the Fibonacci sprial tool shows how these price targets can touch the spiral with target lows reached sometime in very early October. The chart is scaled so that this fib. spiral aligns with the fib. time-based extension tool, for calculating wave C as the time-based fib. 1.0 extension of wave A.
Target I: Wave 2 ≈ 0.764 x Wave 1 ($199)
Target II: Wave C ≈ 0.618 x Wave A ($179)
Target III: Wave 2 ≈ 0.854 x Wave 1 ($176)
Target IV: Wave 2 ≈ 1.0 x Wave 1 ($138)
Target V: Wave C ≈ 1.0 x Wave A ($103)
Abcpattern
Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami After-EffectsPrice target of $3000 has been reached. However, movement from $3800 to $3000 took several days to develop, whereas price movement from $3000 to $3800 was parabolic (hours) and therefore highly emotional (FOMO). This kind of parabolic price action is often reversed by an equally parabolic return to where it started.
In fact, there is the very real possibility of a double-top which appears to be in the process of forming, which if confirmed at the neckline suggests a return to previous lows, and perhaps testing new lows.
Further, there are CCI and Stochastic RSI divergences as shown in the chart, and volume is also decreasing. Together these suggests a reversal is likely, at least down to the double-top neckline, and if the neckline breaks, then back down to previous lows.
There is some uncertainty in the Elliott Wave numbering, since the recent rally could be considered a deep subwave 4 counter-correction, before resuming completion of the final leg of corrective wave C, or it could be the beginning of the new upward movement wave, with the ABC correction being complete. The reason I think it is the former is because the rally was formed far too quickly and emotionally. As previously mentioned, parabolic price actions are often followed by their mirror cousins sometime shortly after. Healthy price action usually requires some level of consolidation at their lows or highs before reversing. The relative strength, momentum and volume divergences, as well as forming double-top supports this.
If the double-top neckline breaks, then I am looking at price targets in the $3k area. And if the $2927 low is taken out, then I’m looking at targets in the $2734 area, which represents the fib. 0.618 extension of subwaves 1-3 of wave C. Finally, I’m also keeping an eye on deeper lows in the $2475 area corresponding to the fib. 0.5 retracement of wave (I), which also intersects the long-term trend line.
We now have some reference points for retesting. Be cautious, and don’t jump in too deep too quick. Leave something on the table in case prices go even lower than expected.
Litecoin Catching a Wave: Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami?There is a pattern across all cryptos that began on Sept. 8, specifically the bearish pennant. What’s remarkable is that it’s occurring across all cryptos. This suggests to me that there is a move underway, which will affect all cryptos. I’ve already written about the Bitcoin tsunami, where I am expecting a correction down to the $3000-$3500 range, and possibly deeper if the conditions are right.
Bitcoin dictates the broad bearish or bullish trend of the entire crypto market. Within that broad structure, all other cryptos can have their own unique bearish or bullish trends or counter-trends. But they are comparatively much smaller movements within the broader picture. When there are large movements in Bitcoin, it brings everything with it.
Add to this the bearish pennant across all cryptos, the steep loss of momentum and volume, and we have a recipe for a deep market-wide correction. The targets I’m providing are for the Fibonacci Wave III retracement levels for Wave IV and Wave A extension levels of Wave C of the corrective ABC Elliott Wave. The deeper the Bticoin correction, the deeper these levels get activated for Litecoin.
Target I: Wave IV ≈ Fib. 0.382 x Wave I ($63)
Target II: Wave IV ≈ Fib. 0.5 x Wave I ($55)*
Target III: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.0 x Wave A ($50)*
Target IV: Wave IV ≈ Fib. 0.618 x Wave I ($46)*
Target V: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.236 x Wave A ($43)
Bitcoin Corrective Tsunami Underway? (Zoom Out II)This is the same chart as previously, except zoomed way out, so you can see the broader Elliott Waves in context, with the purple wave being the largest completed "genesis" wave which we are now correcting.
Targets are shown to be $3000-$3600 based on standard Elliott Wave Theory. However, this correction has the potential to go much deeper. For example, the $2500 level, and even the $2000 level if conditions are right.
Be cautious.
Target: $3000-$3600
CADJPY - SHORTING OPPORTUNITIESWe can see that the pair has formed a nice Double Top at a major level which is why I'm considering short positions for the near future. Looking at the bigger picture we could be in a Flat ABC correction, whichever the case maybe I'm looking towards the downside. A break of the upper trendline should provide even more confirmation, while at the same time we can see that a Bearish Divergence is in play.
From a fundamental standpoint we have the release of Canada's employment figure today so pay attention as it will cause a lot of volatility.
Trade safe and do your own due diligence before executing a trade.
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CIVIC Buy OppertunityQuite bullish on CIVIC at the moment. Looking like it has formed an ABC bottom, indicating that it could break this triangle pattern to the upside. Looking to enter once the price has closed on this 1H candle above the purple dotted line. Blue line at about 0.00013 for 20% is where I will look to take profits. Set stop just below the C bottom at 0.000103
TenX Catching the Bitcoin Corrective TsunamiThere is a bearish pennant chart pattern across most cryptos that began on Sept. 8, and has now broken out. What’s remarkable is that it occurred across many cryptos at the same time. This suggests to me that there is a move underway, which will affect all cryptos. Specifically, I’ve already written about the Bitcoin tsunami, where I am expecting a correction down to the $3000-$3500 range, and possibly deeper if the conditions are right.
However, for TenX, the pattern is not quite as clear as for the other cryptos, as the penant appears to be drifting upwards slightly with each bounce. Nonetheless, the breakout has occured even for TenX. In addition, TenX appears to have some noise that manifests as a hyper-extended wave 5. I believe this is due to pump and dump groups, who artificially, albeit temporarily, manipulate the price of a low-cap market. The reason I think this, is because the overall price structure seems to be out-of-whack compared to the other markets. As such, I've compensated with a purple wave in an attempt to filter out some of the noise.
Bitcoin dictates the broad bearish or bullish trend of the entire crypto market. Within that broad structure, all other cryptos can have their own unique bearish or bullish trends or counter-trends. But they are comparatively much smaller movements within the broader picture. When there are large movements in Bitcoin, it brings everything with it.
Add to this the bearish pennant across all cryptos, the steep loss of momentum and volume, and we have a recipe for a deep market-wide correction. The targets I’m providing are for the various Fibonacci retracement and extension levels of corrective ABC Elliott Wave for TenX, or Wave II. The deeper the Bticoin correction, the deeper these levels get activated.
Target I: Wave II ≈ Fib. 0.618 x Wave I ($2.14)
Target II: Wave C ≈ Fib. 0.618 x Wave A ($1.95)*
Target III: Wave II ≈ Fib. 0.764 x Wave I ($1.51)
Target IV: Wave II ≈ Fib. 0.854 x Wave I ($1.13)
Target V: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.0 x Wave A ($1.04)
Target Range: $1.51-$2.14
Omisego Catching the Bitcoin Corrective TsunamiThere is a bearish pennant chart pattern across all cryptos that began on Sept. 8, and has now broken out. What’s remarkable is that it’s occurring across all cryptos. This suggests to me that there is a move underway, which will affect all cryptos. Specifically, I’ve already written about the Bitcoin tsunami, where I am expecting a correction down to the $3000-$3500 range, and possibly deeper if the conditions are right.
Bitcoin dictates the broad bearish or bullish trend of the entire crypto market. Within that broad structure, all other cryptos can have their own unique bearish or bullish trends or counter-trends. But they are comparatively much smaller movements within the broader picture. When there are large movements in Bitcoin, it brings everything with it.
Add to this the bearish pennant across all cryptos, the steep loss of momentum and volume, and we have a recipe for a deep market-wide correction. The targets I’m providing are for the various Fibonacci retracement and extension levels of corrective ABC Elliott Wave for Omisego, or Wave ((ii)). The deeper the Bticoin correction, the deeper these levels get activated.
Target I: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.0 x Wave A ($9.09)
Target II: Wave ((ii)) ≈ Fib. 0.764 x Wave ((i)) ($8.55)
Target III: Wave ((ii)) ≈ Fib. 0.854 x Wave ((i)) ($8.30)
Target IV: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.236 x Wave A ($8.28)
Target V: Wave C ≈ Fib. 1.618 x Wave A ($7.03)
Target Range: $7.03-$9.09
LONG SET UP IN COFFEE - DAILYHey there!
We had a breakout and a deep pullback, let's look for a buy set up!
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Hey todos,
Tuvimos breakout y un pullback profundo, busquemos una confirmación de compra!
Carlos
POSSIBLE EXPANDED ABC IN USDJPY - 1H CHARTHey guys!
We may get this moves (blue). If we are wrong then it will go down (red) and we will plan more sells.
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Hey chicos!
Puede que tengamos estos movimientos (azul). Si estamos equivocados entonces irá hacia abajo (rojo) y seguiremos planificando ventas.
Carlos
EURJPY - 5-3 WAVE PATTERN + H&SWe can see that the pair has reached a level that had not been retested since February 2016, and upon touching it, it bounced off and broke the major upper trendline a few days later.
After the ECB meeting and Draghi's talks regarding QE we can assume some further weakening of the euro for the days to come.
We can also see that a H&S pattern formed and I would be considering a short entry after the break and close below the neckline as indicated on the chart
Trade safe and do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
ARKW ETF looks like a classic ABC move to me.looks like we are at a crossroads, will it go, or will it retrace?
Which ever way it moves in the next few weeks will likely be our signal to know how to play this out for the next 3 to 12 months.
A. just keeps creeping up, nice and steady, bulls keep control and just steps its way to target.
B. retrace, build up selling pressure, then during 4th Q, the bulls will take over and push it quickly up past 37 and off to target before end of 2018.
Either way, I predict the bull market will prevail over the next 3 to 18 months.
EURCAD 5-3 WAVE PATTERN - ENTERING ON THE PULLBACKReason for short:
1) Minor Upper Trendline broken with one strong bush so (bias is still bullish but there is a small counter trend opportunity - therefore a tight stop loss since this trade carries high level of risk)
2) Pair was unable to push through a major level of structure and immediately later the trendline was broken
Target is set for 2 levels of confluence
Trade safe and do your own due diligence before entering a trade.
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