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Absa

Absa showing downside to come to R120 but I am not buying it LOLOk so I am taking this analysis with a pinch of salt. The JSE Top 40 is showing major upside to come. And yet the Banking sector is showing conflicting signals. I mean we have an Inv Cup and Handle. We have a strong downtrend (safety line) - confirmed We have price<20 and 200MA - Making it a high probability short. Everything about the system is saying SHORT But I am calling BS on this analysis. A part of me wants to go short just for the sake of it because the system says the next target is at R120.12. Are banks predicting a bigger short and crash than we think?
JSE:ABGShort
by Timonrosso
1
UPDATE: Absa Target reached at R181.95 what next?Cup and Handle formed on Absa, broke up and out of it. On 12 June I said it was imminent for a breakout to the upside, but I had NO clue how fast this thing was going to rally. And it was only a Medium Probability Trade Price>20 Price<200 Now that the price has shot up, it obviously is silly to just buy and go long without waiting for a trend confirmation signal in my case. But we do have a DOWN gap (Breakaway gap) that has a 70% chance of closing based on history. However, we need some bullishness before we do anything.
JSE:ABGLong
by Timonrosso
Absa showing downside to R135.00 - SMC also appliedPATTERNS: Absa is forming one of the two Either an Reverse Inverse Cup and Handle . Now price is broken below the handle, the chance is that it'll head to R135.60. Or it's forming a head and shoulders where the Right Shoulder is now ready to form (upside) then downside to the target. 21>7 - Bearish Price<200 Bearish RSI<40 - Bearish SMC: We can see a Bearish Fair Value Gap has formed. This is where the 1st and 3rd candle does NOT overlap in price. The market now will want to rebalance and move up into the gap to fill the orders before it comes down. Hence, this is when the Right Shoulder will form. If the price goes back up it'll give a short term BUY SMC to R185.00 If the price continues down then the target will be R135.60. Regardless, the overall trend and bias is down in the medium term.
JSE:ABGShort
by Timonrosso
Big 4 SA Banks - 1W Channel Breaks I would have thought that bearishness in the SA banking sector is a thing of the past, with earnings showing bank balance sheets & prospects to be more robust than feared in the Covid sell-off. However their consistent grind higher since call it Jun/Jul last year looks to have stalled, with the Big 4: - Showing channel breaks on their 1W charts, - All trading in the no mans land between 15 EMA & 200 DMA, - Negative momentum (RSI,MACD) - Strong $ / weakening ZAR not positive for their outlook Never thought I'd say it so soon into the recovery but, in a short term time frame, time to short SA banks? Or, if you have time to sit it out and an appetite for drawdowns, a good buying opportunity here? Not shown is 1W the Capitec chart - with a few spinning tops that one could go also either way IMHO JSE:FSR JSE:SBK JSE:NED JSE:ABG JSE:CPI
JSE:ABG
by unclecool787