Get started

ACB

TLRY 50? ESCAPING THE INELASTIC CHOKE FUTURE OF CANNABISGood evening Trading viewers, I present to you my second analysis on weed stocks. Is it a voodoo or a complex set of modelers in background or a mystic play of my mind. The infinity governance of time and space has played in part lower single digits. The axiom quantification of price says tlry $50, is it possible?!!! Stop loss 1$. We will see, maybe i am right or maybe i am wrong. Three years from now we will see and ponder about magnification of the ideas. Let the game begin
TLong
by Wallstmessiah
1
ACB - Nice Bounce, Nice DropIt tried to stay above MA20 for a few days, but I really think the ETF Alternative Harvest has been rebalancing their portfolio last week, which explains the sudden spike in volume for just a few selected asset, which are all in their portfolio. Don't misinterpret ACB's underlying weakness as "oversold". It is currently trading at fair value. It has fully retraced an irrational move up to $12.50. Fundamentally, ACB is not worth more than $1. It has recently bounced. It is now ready to settle in the lows for a time. Given its low valuation now, volatility is likely to increase. After all, each 1% is currently just $0.008 (0.8 Dollar cents). So we'll see moves of 10% to 20% in either direction, with ease, and in reality this will be just $0.8 to $0.15. (8 to 15 cents). For at least the next 6 months, we should see ACB trade around the current levels, and it should allow for very nice swing trades. Going long right now would be a pure gamble, not an actual investment.
A
by Barkworth
ACB BounceNo idea what caused that insane volume, but it certainly doesn't look like anything sustainable. If you followed my earlier idea's, you know that my targets all hit. I don't know whereto from here, but since today's spike looks topped out, and we're headed into the weekend, perhaps we can try some FIB Retracement to see how it will drop back down. It worked with Canntrust from $10, perhaps it works the same here. I suppose this is just one of 3 or more possible scenarios, but this is the one that I think is the most likely, for now.
A
by Barkworth
ACB is getting scary now.The next FIB level down is a dire one, that we really should be hoping to see. But if it comes, it is $0.49, and I am placing my GTC limit order at $0.55, just so that I don't miss the bottom. We are currently waiting for SPY to choose direction, but with COVID-19 likely out of control everywhere very soon, there is very little left for the bull thesis. Don't forget, however, that cannabis - like biopharma - is disruptive to the market, but we will only see performers with strong fundamentals break upward, leaving the garbage behind. ACB is highly speculative, and its fundamentals are very weak. Again, my stop loss is at $0.40. If it breaks below that, I think it is time to draw concusions, and avoid the permanent loss of capital. To be honest, it is time to draw conclusions already now, but we can't ignore the fact that ACB's revenue is second only to CGC. CGC is also in shambles, and while it enjoys slightly better fundamentals, it is reasonably overvalued, offering limited abilty for growth. The upside is always where the risk is. There are signs that the Canadian cannabis market is picking up pace. In the meantime, ACB is cutting cost, restructuring, etc. So regardless of the risk, there is a chance that they will turn this around, and the bounce will be epic. My 2 cents...
A
by Barkworth
16
ACB - what is next?Someone commented a while back, that I should compare ACB's bubble with AMZN's bubble, from that time right after Amazon's IPO. Remarkably, the chart patterns look identical to a tee. The reason why I chose to share this now, is because it is interesting to see how AMZN's price acted, after the bubble had burst and the bottom was found. There is an initial recovery rally, some sideways action, followed by a retest of the lows. This is important to understand. Every rally gets tested, and we should resist the fear that a play gets away from us. A lot of us are anticipating, and hoping, for a period of several months of sideways trading, building support etc. You see that AMZN did just that, months of rangebound action, and a long period of selling at that key resistance. Hopefully, IF ACB finds a bottom, when that time comes, we willfind out where this resistance zone will be for ACB, but right now it looks like it could be $1.43/$1.50 or $2/$2.19. What you clearly see from this AMZN pattern, is that it actually took 3 years for the price to reach the 0.5 FIB level.There were countless opportunities to enter in the months that followed the bottom. I think we should anticipate the same with ACB, and we may still see lower lows. Especially because SPY hasn't shown us which way we are headed yet. Anyways, just some friction of thought on my end.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by Barkworth
ACB, right into my target box.First buy box reached. I had reserved an amount for this moment, and I have divided that amount into three baskets. The first one filled at $1.15. The next FIB level down is around $0.89, but this may very well bounce at the $1 psychological level. A third will be purchased if it drops into the box below $0.80. At the moment, judging from a fundamental perspective, ACB is trading at fair value. I am also convinced that ACB will make a comeback at some point. What we need to understand, is that it will definitely run out of cash if the market doesn't pick up soon. There is also the slight possibility that ACB would attract a strategic investor, but I would expect such an investment to provide perhaps $500M, and a deal would possibly look similar to Auxly's recent strategic investment by Imperial Brands. There is no telling me that a broad range of conglomerates isn't watching the cannabis industry with anticipation, but there is no telling whom and when they will act. A little of topic here, but my point is that if you do choose to speculate on a bounce, you should understand first of all that it is very speculative, and you should prepare for news about share dilution to raise more cash once the current prospectus becomes exhausted. Yet, a lot can happen before that time. It would be beautiful if all three of my orders get filled. But it would also be beautiful to see a few months of solid rangebound, sideways trading. I am expecting at least another disastrous quarter, and thus I am in no hurry. If it would suddenly turn bullish, there is still time to enter on a buy signal... Ultimately, I have a stopp loss at $0.40. Lets hope it doesn't come to that.
A
by Barkworth
6
ACB another dead cat rallyI have long loved ACB as my main cannabis pick, but these guys have done nothing but cheat us. Misleading guidance, promising profitability, dilution on the first sign of bullishness. I suppose that is how the world works, if you bet on a naked swimmer. Right now, it tries to bounce with the rest of the market, but can't even get above the 50 hour moving average to close a gap. Downside ahead. Buyers beware! PS. someone is going to owe me a coffee soon, but we need a bounce first, for him to afford it :P
A
by Barkworth
3
ACB's Dilemma: To accumulate and rise? Or fall and delist?ACB is at a critical price point at this time. The price action is still feeling the very strong downward trend that is pointing directly to $0 by no later than May. In order to even potentially reverse this brutal downtrend, ACB must first accumulate and confirm the end of the downtrend. An accumulation channel between $1.16 and $2.75 is potentially in the midst of forming, and ACB will likely move around this price range in the coming months until some volatility and volume decides to push it either way. We will get a better confirmation that the accumulation channel has likely formed if the downward trend lines are broken to the upside, while the price holds above $1.16. (in other words, ACB has to maintain above $1.16 by the close of Friday March 20 while never having a week that closed below $1.16 until then) The weekly 20HMA indicator has the possibility of indicating the end of the Bear Market once it starts moving in a positive direction. Confirmation of the Bullish retracement is only highly likely once three criteria are met: weekly OBV closing higher than its 20MA, weekly 20HMA moving in a positive direction whilst acting as support, and ACB’s weekly price closing above the $2.75 resistance of the accumulation channel with strong volume. During retracement, ACB may retrace to its 0.618 Fib ratio of around $6.82 as the top of its retracement. Otherwise, if ACB cannot meet all three of these criteria, ACB is likely to maintain the accumulation channel between $1.16 and $2.75 for months. If ACB closes below $1.16 on the weekly, it is likely to drop further into the lower accumulation area of $0.12 to $0.60 for several months and risk being delisted from the NYSE. TLDR: ACB has to move sideways before it can move up, or else it will continue to fall. I have presented specific details above that may indicate when the selling pressure has potentially stopped and sideways movement is likely. I will try to keep updates pertaining to this idea as the market provides new information in the coming months. I would appreciate any feedback or comments regarding this idea.
A
by Cuyut1031
1