TLRY Weekly AnalysisTLRY formed a parabolic wedge bull flag which triggered last week. So far it is failing and testing the bull breakout gap around $40. The bulls will likely try to form a second entry for the wedge bull flag within the next few weeks. If instead the sell off continues, prices will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $20 and from there enter a trading range.
ACB
CGC Weekly AnalysisCGC has formed a failed bull breakout and small final flag reversal (failed breakout of tight trading range). It also tested the middle of the tight trading range from the previous all time high which was a target. However this is the first reversal attempt since the January rally and the selling pressure wasnt that strong. The bears need strong follow through in order to convince the market the reversal is in. If the market ignores the sell setup and instead prices continue to rally, the bulls will likely get a new all time high, or a test of the previous high.
ACB and the mystery of the next leg.Left leg, right leg, up or down. Where is she headed? I'm getting more and more messages from people that feel that ACB might implode soon. Personally, I am not that scared. Last week's move down was caused by SPY pulling back, and the lack of volume made it stay where it was. We need SPY to remain stabile while we wait for ACB to present their next earnings. I hope we'll get a date confirmed this week. Originally, May 9th was the expectation, but now we're aiming for May 14th.
All eyes on SPY, folks. Trade with caution.
TLRY weekly analysisTLRY formed a parabolic wedge bull flag last week which triggered this week and will potentially lead to bull trend resumption. The bears appear to be exiting on a test of the previous weeks bear close but the bulls will need follow through over the next few weeks. If prices continue to sell off the bears will likely test the bull breakout gap around $32 and $27.
KSHB weekly analysisKSHB is in a bull flag trading range and larger trading range after making a measured move up based on the height of the opening range. Bears need a strong breakout below the $4 low, where the bulls will probably buy again. If the bears get a breakout below prices will likely test the $3 start of the bull spike or the tight trading range around $2.
ACB getting ready to go..NYSE:ACB
Seems like getting ready to go. Take a look at:
1) MACD
2) flag
3) wave count
ACB - CRYSTAL BALLBlue triangle indicates the current range.
Green box is buy.
Red box is sell.
Blue line indicates potential support/resistance.
Green line indicates t/p.
This is a log chart.
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ACB ascending triangle compared to 2017 break outACB has been trading sideways once before. That time, it broke out bullish, and set its all time high. This was late 2017. Like then, investors are full of anticipation at this time. Real bad news will see a bearish break out, but anticipated good news will break out bullish.
ACB ascending triangle - break out eminent?Ignoring the recent daily wedge, ACB has been trading between $8.75 and $9.25 for few weeks now. The lowest bounce was at $8.50, and that dip got bought aggressively.
Looking at how the recent dips line up, we see an ascending triangle toward $9.25 resistance. This is generally considered a bullish setup. From the looks of it, direction will have to be taken around May 6th. Earning report is due on May 9, so that may just line up nicely. If earnings beat, I think we may be looking at a break out to former highs at $12.50, and possibly/hopefully a break out above that.
At the same time, a break out below $8.50 could trigger a significant series of stop losses.
ACB ready to move upEvery single dip has been bought to the extend that supports never gave way. There have been many attempts by bears to bring the price down, but while ACB sustained its levels between $8.75 and $9.20, the RSI has cooled, and the MACD is about to cross over. There is enough strength for a decent higher high.
I got out, the other day, at $9, but when that dip didn't follow through, I was able to take a new position at the exact price where I exited. On reflection, I should have added to my position, but I felt that things looked bearish at the time. It is hard to say what today will bring, but I find the current setup extremely bullish. In addition, ACB has increased its total capacity to over 1M kilograms. That would put estimated annual revenue to around 5 billion Dollars. With CGC trading at 15 times forward revenue, it would seem that ACB is cheap at just 2 times, even if they don't have 3 billion Dollars in cash.
Support is strong, resistance has been exhausted. I am putting ACB on all time high watch, right now.
ACB Short Opportunity ACB is starting to waiver as it approaches support and it's next test will be the final one for the trend. If it breaks here we're moving into a bearish move. However it could also hold and move higher the market does seem to be fading. The odds of a bearish move are picking up. I'm going to engage in a PUT position against ACB.
Buying 4x PUT EXP May 17 Strike 11 Cost is 0.85 per contract.
Target is going to be at $9.5 - $9
ACB is out in the coldUptrend channel broken with a gap down, on Monday. Yesterday we saw that gap filled, with the bottom of the 3 month old trend line now serving as resistance.
We have a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart. Today we'll need to see confirmation of that, with bulls breaking the $9 price resistance with good volume to look for a daily lower high. If that doesn't happen, we're likely to knock on the trend line door for a few, before turning away in the opposite direction. First stop on the way down is $8.25, then $7.80, then $7.50.
I expect that we will a slow trajectory to those targets as long as the broader cannabis market continues to consolidate, and ACB has not presented us with anything to draw bulls back in.
Aurora Canabis - ACB Bullish trend continuesACB (Aurora Cannabis) after breaking the cup and handle is currently sitting on the support line of $8.8 currently showing a descending triangle continuation pattern, the targets are the same targets of the cup and handle pattern $11 and $12
ACB Descending Triangle - short term very bearishA temporary pullback would not break the cup and handle pattern on the weekly. In fact, we don't know how deep the handle will be, and considering the size of the cup and handle (on the weekly), we may see a deeper pull back before gaining new bullish momentum.
Thursday and Friday were striking trading sessions for ACB. There were several bearish indicators, all of which that got confirmation, but bounced on the $8.80 support. With the daily and hourly lower highs, we now see the descending triangle pattern revived. This is a trend reversal pattern, and unfortunately, ACB's set up qualifies on many counts, and I closed my entire current position, for now. I had accumulated at the drops, and managed to get out at $8.98 yesterday, with a small - but insignificant - profit.
1) In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The robustness of the formation is more important than the lenght.
2) Lower Horizontal Line has to be tested at least twice. The lows do not have to be exact, but should be within reasonable proximity of each other. There should be some distance between the lows and reaction highs.
3) At least two reaction highs are required to form the upper descending trend line. These reaction highs should be successively lower and there should be some distance between them highs.
4) If a more recent reaction high is equal to or greater than the previous reaction high, then the descending triangle is not valid.
5) The length of the pattern can range from a few weeks to many months, with the average pattern lasting from 1-3 months. ACB's triangle will be headed for 1 month somewhere next week
6) Volume: As the pattern develops, volume usually contracts.
What to expect?
1) When it breaks to the downside, we may see increased volume for confirmation, but increased volume is not necessary to drive the price down. Once she goes, she goes.
2) After she breaks, we may see a quick return to the $8.80 level, but this will now be resistance.
3) After she breaks, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern (the left side) and subtracting it from $8.80-ish.
$CGC: Good buy entry here$CGC has reached support at the bottom of the 'Jeff Sessions resignation' key level. There's an active monthly uptrend, daily is oversold and making a higher high above a previous day high, whilst RgMov shows an active daily uptrend, so this would qualify as a valid long entry. You can risk either 3 daily ATR down, a drop under this last daily lowest low, use a monthly mode stop loss @ 25.28 for sizing, or size it for a long term position with 1-10% exposure and no stop.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.