Sold $5.58 Yesterday for 3% loss. Re-Entering TomorrowRisky swing trade, but I think this reaction is just panic selling from the news yesterday. A lot of people are holding a bag right now, so when the news hit they freaked out. A lot of new traders attracted to weed stocks. It was also hovering around $3.00 before they made all those acquisitions
The volume was unspectacular relatively speaking. Funds have already unloaded a lot of stock at this point, which you can see on the two big volume days that happened just recently -- one day for 30 million, the other 20 million.
Like the risk reward. I may hold, but if I'm up nicely, I might sell too. Depends on a lot of factors whether I hold.
Buying the dip or the open depending on the price action. Will be scaling into my position nonetheless. If it closes strong, I'll fill. No buy half this time, filling the whole thing today
ACB
Close to Retracing All Previous Gain, Lot's of News CatalystsWeed stock operating in the United States. Listed on the CSE, which is where it gets most of it trading volume. Reason I'm not entering now is because there were some heavy sell offs recently, and also because of the state of marijuana stocks in the United States. Most of the funding comes from Canadian investors though. It should get some laggard carryover once we start to close in on October from Canada legalization news pumping up the market again. Most marijuana stocks in Canada are in key support levels right now
$ACB buyers are searching for a cheaper entry - dilution is goodWhile TSX:ACB is sitting at a new support of $7 - buyers are looking for a new avenue while production lags behind the Oct 11th date.
While FOMO locks into place we will see a new entry around $5.50 and maybe as low as $4 before the new year and before production starts.
LEAFers are still waiting for new shares.
Dilution is good.
ACB see's a dip to $7.92 after announcement about MedReleaf" ACB announces it has received shareholder approval at a special meeting, held today, for the issuance of shares in consideration for the planned acquisition of MedReleaf Corp. ("MedReleaf"), a well-known Canadian Licensed Producer based in Markham, Ontario that delivers premium medical cannabis products to domestic and global markets, and compelling brands to the adult-use recreational market."
Dillution, is a fact of company issuing shares for operating expenses, in this case it's a merger.
There won't be a dillution, more shares will be issued and capital value of company will increase. So, currently 4.2bln, and it will be 7.6 bln, about the same as Canopy. It's the reason why Canopy is declining, because Aurora is bigger now.
Leaders in the industry get higher p/e and share price as result... soon will be back at $9. There's some selling by Medreleaf are going on Aurora side, it's a reason, why we can't push back above 50 days.
More Information about the Announcement here:
Industry-leading scale: Funded capacity will increase to over 570,000 kg of high-quality cannabis per year, to be delivered through nine facilities in Canada and two in Europe
Low production costs and industry-leading yields: Aurora's automated 'Sky Class' greenhouses are expected to deliver industry-leading efficiencies and ultra-low production costs of well below $1 per gram, delivering sustainably robust margins. MedReleaf's high-yield cultivation techniques are expected to further enhance productivity and reduce costs across the combined entity's facilities.
International distribution: Aurora has established a strong and rapidly growing footprint in the international medical market. The combined entity is now well-positioned to rapidly gain market share in a number of significant markets. Most notable among these, is the European Union, which will have in excess of 400 million people following Brexit.
Expanding brand leadership: Aurora, CanniMed and MedReleaf represent three well-established medical cannabis brands, and a growing portfolio of premium consumer and wellness brands including San Rafael '71, Woodstock, and AltaVie that are backed by detailed consumer and marketplace insights and advanced analytical frameworks. This brand leadership positions the combined entity well to drive accelerated growth through its existing distribution channels for the domestic medical and consumer markets, as well as the international medical markets.
Scientific leadership: Each company is actively engaged in clinical trials and medical studies, which has resonated strongly with the international medical community, driving above-average prescription rates and referrals. Further, both companies have developed considerable expertise in cannabis plant genetics, enabling the development of new cultivars with specific traits for a variety of domestic and international markets, as well as strains optimized for automated cultivation.
R&D: The combined company will have an industry leading Science and Research & Development team that includes approximately 40 PhDs and MScs. Both companies have a proven track record in developing new products, adopting new technology throughout the value chain, and integrating innovations from third parties. Combining these capabilities will accelerate product development and technology adoption, creating strong, defensible competitive advantages, including, management believes higher-margin offerings to drive above average profitability.
The weed bubble is coming?There's some nice price action around the weed markets right now and Harvest One is no exception. The most obvious signal here is the RSI divergence forming right now. The price is settling way below ATH, and it needs some retracement upwards! Let's see if we will have a cannabis craze across the board.
This is once again a low risk trade like the one I'm currently holding in Aurora (Check it out!). This is because of the buy indications on multiple timeframes looking at the indicators.
I put in some conservative levels for the careful trader. A conservative buy would be above the yellow line, with a tight stop according to taste. Fib levels above are targets as usual. This is quite a new stock so the resistance levels are quite clear.
The Ichimoku is just waiting to show some level breaking and support forming above this price. The cloud gives little resistance so after a smaller breakout, it's touch and go! Not financial advice though.
WEED hourly trade plan 2 scenariosBull scenario - we break 27.50 and 27.83 for hourly higher highs - in which case I would be targeting previous support of 29.55 which lines up amazingly with that downtrend resistance line - likely to scale out partial profits sooner since that's an ambitious target percentage wise.
Bear scenario - 27 dollars breaks down and I start to watch for an oversold bounce in the low 26's or even 25's depending on the time and RSI levels when it gets there - if it is a deep flush and 5 and 15 get oversold quickly and take the hourly down, I will start scaling in a bit faster, if it's a slow grind down like we have been experiencing - I will stay much more patient. Initial target for the bounce would then be 27 previous support now strong resistance.
Falling wedge on APH hourly?Low volume and a nice tightening pattern on APH's hourly combined with an oversold RSI could provide for a nice bull break out of this falling wedge. Watching for a potential flush down out of the wedge then jump back up - or bull break over 9.97 and 10.16. Always watching sector leader WEED too.
ACBFF (ACB.TO) Falling Wedge? Heavily beat down as of late, at major support with a falling wedge pattern taking shape. One good catalyst and I think this one can pop up nicely.
Looking for a break of the wedge and a retest of the $6.70-$7 region
Aurora Cannabis medium-term buyHedge Funds and other companies are investing heavily in the Cannabis sector, and this company is relatively cheap. Which means that those companies investing in the sector are incrementally accumulating their positions. This also means that those companies will purchase stocks where they believe it to be cheap and that entry area is a good area (based on technicals) to purchase.
ACB crosses the upward trend line, can it reverse?We have closed below the upward trend line, and out of the falling wedge. The weakness of the reaction rally foreshadowed the sharpness of the decline that followed. If we cannot hold support at 9.00 and start to form a reversal. If not, we will most likely test 8.50. Today hit support and got rejected twice, Will this be a reversal or will it continue to test lower?
Value area under 10.00I am watching the two forces bullish and bearish on this one. As you can see on the daily, we have very defined channel zones. Price is respecting these areas. The pot market is mostly bearish, with decent retracements aka bullish pullbacks (from bearish bias perspective). These are tradeable (I trade them as a counter-trend trade) and typically I see, 1.50 to 2.00 movements. A high probability tradeable pattern has emerged. Currently, I am watching for price to slip back to the 10.00 area of interest.
In my opinion; ACB is no longer trading like a speculative market, but now as a supply and demand market. As we appear to have a great deal of supply, suppliers are reporting how they can easily meet supply targets. Prices are set by the government, and supply chains are now emerging. I am expecting/predicting prices to keep slipping until August.
The days of 15% moves are gone, but we are seeing consistent days of 3% moves and over 3 or 4 days, that's an easy 9%-12% on a bullish week. I can live with that.
I have also noted, that possibly we have some whales shorting this market. The other day I was watching order flow, I noticed some large buying orders in higher price areas, from a bearish perspective, this would be whales taking profit on the big shorts.
A tip for risk management; Never trade with capital you cant afford to lose. Once you place a trade, assume it to be gone. If you can't live with that, then you shouldn't be trading with that much capital. Simple enough.
This is not financial advice, but purely my opinion and shared thoughts.
Aurora bounced off resistance, but faces heavy resistance.We can see that TSX:ACB just can't seem to keep volume or momentum. Although it had traced all the way back down to the .618 Fibonacci retrace, where it finally found some support and did a little bounce, but there is now heavy resistance it will have to face at 10.60. It is following the temporary downward trend line, indicated by the dotted green line, coming to a triangle where the upward trend line meets current support at ~9.57. We can confirm some new light support if the next couple candles close at somewhere around, or above 10.00.
Aurora didn't even get high and still needs support.Aurora didn't get as high as the other stocks, rather ending the last few days in the red. Forcing me to remove the previous support I was worried about, as well as the possible new upward trend line, replacing it with a dotted green temp downtrend line. It didn't recover well from that broken neck. There wasn't much of a shadow and the candle closed almost full red, indicating that we may still be headed in that direction. We will probably see 10.80 and possibly 10.50, as we closed below all three MACD's according to Bill Williams.
ACB HUGE BREAKOUT COMING (Aurora Cannabis)Inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed on the daily chart for ACB. It has tested a bottom three times and has been in tight consolidating patterns for the last 21 days -- the longest period of consolidation yet in the stock's history. Bollinger bands have tightened signaling a nearing breakout, with bear volume reducing and bull volume increasing, signaling an imminent breakout to the upside.
Whether you check the weekly or the daily chart, the inverse head and shoulders pattern has completed and the stock is signaling a strong upwards movement.
On the weekly chart we've formed higher highs three weeks in a row with increasing bull volume. Anticipate huge volume next week and a breakout.
Aurora's neck is broken. Indecision Volume.Sometimes breaking your neck isn't always a bad thing. After a fairly large consolidation after that inverse head and shoulders pattern, we can see from the 4h chart today, ACB is logically following suit with WEED , just cracking the neckline (indicated by the purple line) and waiting for that second confirmation above. The shadows of both candles just barely touched the resistance line at 12.00. The combination of these two factors means that we will probably see a hesitation, which generally happens after the neckline is broken with any sort of volume influx. Support was raised to ~10.60, stop loss is at 11.30, in case it decides to form a head and shoulders pattern and come back down to retest where the MACD's meet new support, but it is looking like we may close with indecision.
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Looky what we have here.So, in the previous chart, I was thinking that it wasn't going to cross that line due to the volume and or buying power. Well, they have just acquired final approval for the acquisition of CanniMed earlier today. A combination of diluted asset and possible positive conviction I believe, has lead to an increase just above the trend line. This has allowed me to move the support line up to ~9.85 and is a step in the right direction, but even if we can get a second confirmation above the trend line, there isn't much play room before we need some bulls to break that resistance at 10.70.
finance.yahoo.com
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HEMP: Potential Bottom at $0.89?Observations:
Whenever there is a massive uptrend at such an alarming pace, we always see long drawn out corrections.
We see the next fib level support is at $0.89 which could potentially be a buy zone.
Also included some thoughts around the timing of the correction but I would take those with a grain of salt.
Fundamentally, this company is going through some transitions and I believe in them for the long term.
Disclaimer
For informational purposes only and not deemed as financial advice.