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Accumulation-distribution

GBPUSD strong rally.. a correction? or a trend-reverse thingy?GBPUSD price retraced to the 0.618 - 0.786 area 📈after a Monday rally, almost reaching my POI at around 1.37600. The Stoch enters the oversold area on 30m and 1h. With a small re-accumulation 📊around 1.37000 the price broke that level and is currently heading higher. It can retrace back to around 1.36800 and head even higher to >>POI<< and 1.38000. I'll be looking closer for a distribution signs between 1.37400 and 1.38000, looking for some nice setups to SELL ⬇️up there. On the other side, if the price pushes down strongly below 1.36800, we can get action around 1.36600 later this week. So, a correction, or a change of trend? I'll keep an eye on GBPUSD this week. 👀
Short
by GibsonTrades
Bitcoin 67k or 8k First?Here's the P&F chart update for Bitcoin after the Amazon FUD. We have a reversal bar to the downside which is bearish, but in order not to become overly bearish, i'm also counting for a possible reversal to the upside for the next column. Ofcourse we should expect a reaction in these reversal bars. In fact the current reversal could be the reaction itself. 30k is the double bottom and 40k is the double top. Crossing these levels could take us further as explained on the chart. I tokk only the last segment of consolidation as they are the first targets. We are still in the sideways trading range and we could break out both ways. There are signs of strength and accumulation, but volume is not supporting this. I'm in short strategy, but i'm posting this as neutral so people don't take action within this trading range by looking at my analysis idea. Be safe.
by BitcoinMillio18
20
XAU Shift before bullish takeoffXAU has managed to break the two-week range between 1797.00 Upper bands and 1750.00 lower bands. This consolidation comes as normality after extending a steep decline right off the 1900.00 zones as accumulation now shapes into form. A projected re-test of the established mid-range sees a short entry opportunity toward 1775.00. This establishes a confluence setup as price may bounce off the 1775.00 weekly reactive zones further continuing the bullish push toward 2104.00 later this year.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by HuracanFX
Are We Going To $80k?Here's the deal, As being one of the first trades to point out Accumulation, i've been at both sides of the story. Price being right at the middle of the trading range, it's time to evaluate current situation from both angles. 1- We are in Accumulation. The spring action is being tested and breaking 37k would validate it along with higher highs and lower lows. In Wyckoff analysis, horizontal column counts are used to calculate potential. Right now we have 17 columns (17x3x1000=51.000) and this fuel is enough to take us to 80-84k area. Wait, but aren't we going to 100k? Well that's the psychological target, but the current state of our data says we have enough fuel for 80-84k. The good news is that the more we go sideways the higher we go. 2- We are in Redistribution The poor rally and break of the uptrend are weaknesses that can validate a redistribution. However, the 17 column count far exceeds the current price level, which i mentioned in my previous analysis. We simply can't fall below zero :) So, in an effort to make this work, i've segmented the structure in to two at the second highest volume drop. That is the last 5 columns and that equals to a 15k drop, taking us to $20k as widely rumored. Calculate Your Risk If we want to open a long position today with a traget of $80k and a stop loss level at $18k, our risk to reward ratio will be 2.76 - at the worst case (if we are not going to $10k). This means If you invest $100 today, you'll have $376 when the price target is reached. Not bad. However, if the shakeout happens, the worst case we can see is 18k, meaning a ~50% drop. Will you be able to handle that stress without selling? TBH I don't know the answer, but the reward is still 2.76x if you stand strong. With proper risk management and position sizing i believe this risk can be mitigated. Final thoughts I see 2 possible scenarios now: 1- A rally towards 80k followed by a small re-accumulation, taking us above $100k 2- A break down to 20k followed by 7-8 weeks accumulation, following a rally towards 80k, followed by small re-accumulation towards $100k. I'm really neutral here, but looks like $80k will be an important level. What's your take? Go long now, or wait for 20k?
by BitcoinMillio18
70
#Bitcoin Road To $100K - Wyckoff Accumulation UpdatedI've digged deeper in to details and updated the accumulation phase we are entering. While the length of each phase can differ, this is pretty much what it will look like to reach $100k. So, sideways accumulation looks like it will continue in trading range until October, while institutions accumulate, following a rally / markup to $80k and the distribution will begin, topping at 102k by the end of January and then the cycle will repeat. Forever. Laura. :)))
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
108
Gold Analysis - WyckoffHi Traders/Gamblers, This is by far my most intricate and detailed analysis of Gold following a distribution that took place a few months ago, as shown. We have hit our target area for gold as shown and stipulated. Following the DXY's downward it has since settled and seems to be consolidating giving signals of a reversal with a H&S as well as distribution taking place. This then means that gold is currently experiencing the opposite as it heavily relies on the USD to determine price action - DXY effects gold at around 2 - 6 times the movement (1% movement on DXY makes 2% - 6% on Gold, depending on sentiments and trend). Gold could be potentially distributing here as it has reached accumulation cause and effect, or Stage 1. We now wait for the other stages to be completed to fully confirm a downtrend which would see significant downward movement - possible into the 17xx or 16xx. This however could also be a re-accumulation into a further upward trend, giving us 2xxx, it is important to note that we could still see 1960 as a point of UT or UTAD before going down. RSI has broken upward trend and is currently bottomed out on Daily chart showing that we could range for a little more, however MACD is topped out and has crossed over signalling a reversing trend in the near future. Volume is decreasing, creating a base, showing an exhaustion of demand and buyers and the possibility for sellers and supply to take over. With CPI being released tomorrow at 1:30pm (UCT) this will be a good indication of where the market will stray, we are hoping for a lower low giving us SOW and then retracing back up to give us a last point of supply before heading down. Once we have received the SOW and the LPS we will then be able to use the point and figure chart to determine a target objective based off of cause and effect. It has been said that Russia are wanting to dump the dollar and invest in euro and gold which could possibly mean that Russia will sell off their gold positions and look to add more at a cheaper rate of gold - emphasising again the significant downtrend we could see along with a big spike back up once target is reached. To read up on the Wyckoff method and the phases, stages as well as buying or selling signals read here: school.stockcharts.com Good luck. **This is not financial advice** Chart is made shareable by clicking this link: uk.tradingview.com
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Username_for_trading
4
DXY - AnalysisTVC:DXY Analysis - 👨🏾‍🎓 The DXY is Bearish on the monthly from a structural and institutional perspective I can see the bullish momentum continuing until 92.184 to mitigate the orders made in the last period before a continuation in bearishness to create a monthly lower low. The 82.000 demand zone, which has significance as far back as DEC 1990 could be a key level to show major dollar strength, failure in this level to hold could have catastrophic consequences for the USD The rise of blockchain and cryptocurrency applications have accelerated during this period of decline, this is set to continue as people seek better stores of value than the USD. The decline itself and Quantitative easing never seen on a scale like this before have raised large questions on the suitability of the USD as the worlds global reserve currency for the longterm. Let me know your thoughts, I've attached more snapshots below!
TVC:DXY
by digital_dwight
4
All hail Gold Digger. Spread and DistributeGOLD has seems to be at its distribution area. Based on TP calculated using Law of Cause & Effect PnF chart, conservative target can be considered reached at USD2100 area (2077 to be exact). Here's how I deduced TP reached: 6 years of accumulation (2013-2019) at USD1180-1400/oz shows a classic schematic of wyckoff accumulation phase. On PnF chart, using box size of USD5 and reversal amount of 3, I got a total of about 154 accumulation columns. With this information, I can get the approximation amount to be marked up = 154*5*3 = USD924. From the chart, we can see a complete 5 Elliot Waves and its ABC correction waves. Although it might be true that Gold is currently at distribution phase, it doesn't mean that Gold price is set to make a cliff diving. Distribution phase might take up months to years, as seen from historical data in 2012, it took 1 year of distribution before mark down. Possible distribution range might be around USD 1800-2000/oz IMHO, I think it is not a good time to start buying gold now for a long term investment. However, for a short term play around USD 1800-2000, one can consider and find a good entry point around the neckline of this distribution area.
TVC:GOLD
by tradebrewer
The acquisition or gradual gathering of something Hello everyone ! I wish you all nice day my dear followers, friends, newcomers and randoom net troll visitors. Lets focus closer on The accumulation of wealth today at this chart Accumulation function, a mathematical function defined in terms of the ratio future value to present value it is literally the process of gradually increasing in amount, or the increased amount -------------------------- Accumulation -------------------------- When price declined deep enough, at some point, you (as Smart Money) make the decision to buy. You may have various reasons for that: you may see that stocks are heavily under-priced or you analysis shows that the market is ready for a new uptrend and if you do not start it then someone else may do it. It does not matter what your motivations are, you want to buy as much as possible at lowest possible price. When you are Smart Money, you cannot jump into the market and buy all you need at once. In order to accumulate the shares at lowest possible price your buying activity should be spread in time. You have to plan your buying. You would have to follow a specific strategy: 1) When price drops below your critical level you start buying. 2) You continue to increase buying until you see you absorb all available supply and reversed a price trend. By its nature panic selling is stronger than greedy buying. That is why you need to put more buying pressure to stop a down-trend. That is why a volume surge at the end of a down-trend is much stronger than a volume surge at the end of an up-trend. That is why Accumulation goes faster when compared to distribution. 3) When price trend is reversed and reaches your critical level below which you are buying, if you did not bought all you wanted, you stop buying - you remove demand. If price does not start to slide down you may sell some of what you bought to generate bearish sentiment and make an illusion of bounce and not a reversal. Since you were the main buyer, you will not need to put a lot of selling pressure to resume a down-trend. 4) As price starts to decline again, you start buying again until you absorb all supply and accumulate (buy) all you wanted to buy. That is why we see double bottoms, reversed head and shoulders and etc. 5) You may repeat 1-4 steps again when you see that you may easily create a bearish sentiment (you do not have to sell a lot to resume down-trend). You do it until you accumulate all you want. 6) When you dry out all Supply, there is no need in a strong Demand to push price higher. Small increase in Demand can make a case. At first, stop-losses of bearish traders are triggered. Then, as price advances, the rest of the market starts to jump in. From that moment, you may sit and watch as other traders' bullish pressure pushes the price up. The market not always follows a specific scenario and Accumulation phase does not always follows the same pattern. Still, by analyzing volume and price action you may reveal the activity of the Smart Money. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------- Distribution -------------------------- At some point, you as a Smart Money have to dump your investments. It does not matter what your motives are - you made decision to relocate your investments into different place, you made extensive analysis and you know there are a lot of external factors which would support a down-trend, you see market bubble which may burst any time, you see that the market is heavily overpriced or you simply see that the market cannot push itself higher (demand is drying out). It doe not matter why you want it. You are "Smart Money" and you want to sell. You have to distribute your holdings. However, you know that when you start dumping all your investments at once, the quantity of supply you will through into the market will crash the price. You do not want it - you want to distribute your investments at the highest possible price. You have to plan your actions to dump your investments in a smart way at the highest possible price without crashing the price down: 1) When price moves up to some specific level defined by you as satisfactory level, you may start selling. You start selling in big quantities until you see that you are absorbing all Demand (buying pressure) and price up-trend starts to halt. 2) If there were a lot of unsatisfied demand (a lot of Bullish traders) you will be able to sell more - we will see increase in volume to the price up-move and then price advance will halt. When there are not a lot of Bullish traders, you will stop price advance without causing an increase in volume. 3) When you see that price up-move halted you halt your selling - we will see a drop in volume. 4) If price starts to move down and you still have a lot of shares to dump, you stop selling as you do not want price do decline deep down - you want to sell at the top. 5) If price continues to decline without you that mean you created bearish sentiment. In this case, you do not mind to buy a little bit to change the sentiment and to push price up again. 6) When price starts to move up you start to sell again by dumping the rest of your investments. 7) You repeat the 1-6 steps above until you sell all your holdings you wanted to dump. You managing bullish and bearish pressure you manipulate price to move in a side-way narrow range corridor. 8) When you about to distribute all your holdings, you do not halt your selling when price declines below your satisfactory level. You continue to push price lower - you need to create bearish sentiment on the market, so, the market will continue decline down without your involvement. 9) Each time when you sell and push price down, you may run into new waves of Bullish traders who has their own reasons to start buying. These bullish traders could be strong and they may reverse a price trend up strongly. However, since you are the Smart Money and you have unlimited access to money - you are stronger and you are dedicated to push price down. As these new Bulls push price up close to your critical threshold, you start selling (if you are out of your holdings you sell short). You do it each time it occurs until you break the spirit of these waves of new Bullish traders. That is why we may see an increase in volatility at the end of side-way trading right before a bearish trend. That is why we see price bouncing from the resistance levels. By Richard Wyckoff words, you have to shake spring board until you shake off all the Bullish traders. When you shake off all the Bulls, these Bulls will turn into the Bears - their stop-losses will start triggering and they will start selling. 10) From that moment, you may just sit and watch the decline - you Distributed all your investments at the Top and you started a bearish trend. But remember ! This is how you would have to act if you would be the "Smart Money" dedicated to distribute all your investments and reverse a price trend down. Of course, the Distribution phase, does not follow the exact scenario described above all the time. In some cases we have prolonged in time side-way trading and in some cases we have Climax Run up and strong reversal down. However, in all cases we can track the actions of Smart volume by analyzing volume activity together with price movements. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to know what Smart Money are doing, you have to think as Smart Money. You may see when Smart Money start their buying (Accumulation) - it starts while price still declines. Also, you may see when they start their selling (Distribution) - aging, it starts while price still moves up. By analyzing volume and price action you could obtain the knowledge about trend-reversal before it actually occurs. This is unnatural to think that the first signs of weakness occur on price up move and the first signs of strength occur on price decline. However, this is one of the main concepts of Volume Spread Analysis. When you are can see the beginning of an Accumulation or the beginning of a Distribution, you can spot when "Smart Money" start their trading activity. From that point, if you define the sentiment of "Smart Money", you will know where to place your bet. Accumulation/Distribution scheme chart applied on BINANCE:XLMBTC link on chart HERE The acquisition or gradual gathering of something part 2. here Please leave a like if you want to support my work and do not hesitate to let me know down in the comments how do you like the graphics and the style of TA at all. Do you want more of these ? Let me know and support me Every feedback and like is highly appriciated. ChaChain ------------- Disclaimer: I´m not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and therefore I´m unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
by Anoinvest
25
GOLD Gold Weekly idea. Finished fifth wave (or near about) Formed SOS on high - Looking for BUEC range confirm as wave 2 back to 1200 dollar area. Then move to 3ks looks likely given macroeconomic outlook when the $USD stops being deflationary and starts an inflationary cycle DXY looks to make up to 30% rise which will be key to the play imo. Retail are looking to buy into Gold and BTC at present due to inflation fears, CO of both markets looking to take profits in a dollar which is increasing in value. Both assets have yet to retest the range from their Accumulation phase. XAU is more likely to be the more predictable of the assets, The air is ripe with retail money in response to the news and makes a ripe environment for local distribution. BUEC target (RangeEQ) lines up with the expected 618 retrace for a wave 2 Will keep this idea running. Short from here Looking to long 1200 area
OANDA:XAUUSD
by X2000X
BITCOIN 50% FIB FRACTAL | ACCUMULATION UNDER 50% FIB - $74002015 50% Fibonacci Level held as a pivot as price traded under it whilst testing it 50% Fibonacci was re-tested upon breakout Capitulation was -65% Capitulation wick was -22% below the close Price simply traded sideways within a range 2020 vs 2015 Similarities 50% Fibonacci Level being tested as of now and this is a key pivot zone Capitulation was -62% which is similar to -65% of 2015 Capitulation wick was -26% below the close which is similar to -22% of 2015 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ Summary of Both Charts: Big Capitulation Initial Retracement Sideways Accumulation Between Low & Retracement Level VERDICT : Bitcoin to remain under $7400 and trade sideways for a few months, bouncing between $3800 and $7400
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by JayanVarsani
1
Euro Triangle Breakout Before ECB...Load up Bears!!!Consolidation triangle has a breakout.... Looking for a simple retest of the 1.1040 area which is a nice retrace of the current move.... Also we finally broke below the moving averages so retesting in that same area of confluence.. Ill be looking to add in this confluence area in addition to my shorts from earlier in the weak (idea attached) Note: Macd is poised to cross Zero threshold so a momentum move is near Positioning for ECB which should be dovish Aiming for the lows 1.097 for TP1 and 1.088 TP2 Happy Huntin' Happy Trappin' BooBii
Short
by rickyboobii