Accumulation
I'm long bitcoin againI have a few indicators that tell me whenever i should accumulate or distribute.
On the Weekly timeframe:
1. Does my Accumulation/Distribution band show Red or Green.
If Red:
2. Is RSI above 70 and RSI SMA above 50?
3. DISTRIBUTE
If Green:
2. Is RSI under 30 and RSI SMA under 50?
3. Is BTC price +- 80% down from ATH?
4. did 50 & 100 SMA Death cross happen?
5. ACCUMULATE
There is a few more things i take into account but this is the minimun needed that worked in the past and i believe will work again in the future.
For now i'm DCA'ing in slowly untill we see a Death cross on the 50 & 100 SMA AND/OR a drop to -80% from ATH.
If you have any questions feel free to contact me
ADAUSDT - Stop Hunt with Wyckoff Method📉📈Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
A quick look at Cardano / ADAUSD / ADAUSDT . I believe that we are currently in the market cycle of accumulation , according to the Wyckoff Method market phases. The four phases of the market cycle are accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown.
During the accumulation phase, a new cycle begins that generates a trading range. The pattern often creates a strong resistance zone / failure point / spring . This is the precursor to another bull cycle, but it can last an extended period of time. The final moments of this phase will attract algorithm trading driven stop hunting , often observed near downtrend lows, where price drops just underneath key support and then triggers a sell-off. This is followed by a recovery wave that lifts the price back above support.
So - What Is Stop Hunt ?
Stop hunting is a strategy that attempts to force traders out of their positions by driving the price of an asset to a level where many people have chosen to set stop-loss orders. The triggering of many stop losses at once typically creates high volatility and this is often very obvious during the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Method.
If we take all of the above into consideration, the price of Cardano can still drop and fall within a range multiple times until a clear bottom is established and the next markup phase / bull cycle starts. In the video above, I take a look at possible bounce zones and a target for the SOS ( sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume ). I have also highlighted the next phase of the accumulation cycle, the BU (back-up). At this point, short-term profit-taking occurs and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up (SOS) .
Here, I did an analysis on Bitcoin / BTCUSD / BTCUSDT using the Wyckoff Method:
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CTKUSDT wants the breakout?The price is creating an accumulation area (50 days) above the daily support at 0.75$.
We are waiting for a clear breakout from the resistance.
How to approach it?
IF the price is going to have a breakout from the range and retest as new support, According to Plancton's strategy , we can set a nice order
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Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Accumulation above the line (H1, H4 tf)After breaking out the H4 level and stopped just above the line. This level was tested several time in history and it is obvious that we can go higher until we pull out all bearish orders. The pice in above the level is a + for long positions, The local sales and putting the price under the line liquidated within next 1-2 hours - another _ for longs. (it seems that strong buyer is still holding the position). Estimated TP for long positions is better to put close to daily level around 0.3990. Level at 0.4000 is a strong resistance both technically and mentally (0.4000). Therefore we expect a high volatility there and looking for an local correction sales.
H4 TA analysis of the current situation with two options ahead Daily:
We have a not clear downtrend, almost empty area below 8.50. Next serious support is 7.40
H4:
Downtrend for 5 days (-23%), accumulation for 13 days with further bearish breakout. At 8.6 - new accumulation.
After false breakout, no high correction, 3rd bar after FB is "stop bar". Next bar in bearish. reached 80% H4 ATR for 3 hours.
It seems that shorts are nearby, but we have to be sure, that other scenario is cancelled. The best short signal for us will be small bars (H1-H4) in yellow box, just above the 8.5 line.
Tp is 3-5% above the 7.40
Litecoin - LTC Could +300% 🚀Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📉📈
Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year.
With this chart, I propose my trading idea with a potential of 300% profit for Litecoin / LTC / LTCUSDT . Currently, we're trading at the accumulation phase of the Wyckoff Method. This means that there may be multiple buy opportunities at low prices until a clear bottom is established (when the majority of investors decide that they are not willing to buy lower than a certain price). In other words, I'm not stating that the price will go up 300% straight from here - however, if you accumulate some LTCUSD here and you're patient enough to wait for targets and trade according to a plan, there exists the potential for 300% profit.
1st Take Profit point:
2nd Take Profit point:
3D Take profit point:
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Trading exactly at Supply/Demand Equilibrium PointWill be very interesting to see how we trade here in the next 25-30 minutes. Using Supply/Demand trendlines as shown in chart, I am seeing Supply = Demand at ~ 7:25AM 7/12/2022 (EST) @ the price level 3826.71.
This is right where we are now. A further analysis using Calculus gives me a bullish conditional expectation from here.
If Price gets back above 3683 this morning (after the point in time where demand becomes greater than supply (so after ~7:25AM), then it will activate markup of this accumulation phase. The 3683 I have obtained from 2 separate methods, the one relevant to the Supply/Demand in chart is as follows:
Find the AUC of Supply/Demand (a hyperbolic expression) by integrating over the time interval from beginning of supply trendline to point of equilibrium (= 30.97 trading days), then add to X_e to obtain the markup level. When this is broken before time of equilibrium it can result in a short squeeze if price gets far enough away, but we ran into resistance this week so had to backup/retest for support and will now re-attempt. Green dashed line is illustrative path if squeeze unfolds (still can), green path is expected path if there is no squeeze.
Black path illustrative of what could happen if it gets trapped back in between the S, D trendlines
Red path is breakdown.
These are not precise, just wanted to illustrate the most likely scenarios that can unfold from here and alert that we are at a critical point in price and time... right now.
StochRSI and MFI both point toward breakout, other math not included points toward bullish from here. A bullish catalyst would do the trick, but might just occur on its own based on Gann Time Cycle (not included).
Bet.
TWST - mini double bottomAfter a spectacular fall (of 88%) all the way back to covid pandemic low, TWST appear to have found bottom @ abt $25 on 12th May and then retested this level again on 13 June. There were some signs of high volume accumulation on days following these low.
The 21day moving average has recently crossed above the 50 day moving average and RSI is now showing strength (>60). It is likely that the worst is over for TWST. Any near term pullback towards the neckline around 38 will be an opportunity to long.
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
BEWARE OF THE PUMPS! whales are accumulating BTCin the crypto market, after massive drops like the past couple of months, the market transitions from distribution to a possible accumulation or re-distribution phase. if we are switching to accumulation in the crypto market, most of the traders would think that whales are only accumulating crypto on FIAT pairs which is wrong. they even profit when they are accumulating.
how? they would trade their bitcoins for an altcoin and then pump that altcoin (when BTC is in a range or doing a local upthrust) to accumulate even more bitcoins for a rally.
in my opinion, we are entering an accumulation phase, so beware of random pumps, and if you are trading an altcoin try to monitor the Altcoin/BTC pair as well.
please like and share this idea.
let me know in the comments what you think.
Don't forecast the future, use patternsAfter a huge down trend, ETHUSDT is accumulating for 25 days in a channel. As we know, trading in channel is quite simple: sell from the top, buy from the bottom. And don't think about future of the pair, unless you see the signlas shows that the pair is going to break borders. (the blue arrow and the red one). To make Breakthrough scenarios active, local correction of the pair should not exceed 20% of the channel range. On H1 you can see a flag formation, which gives additional scores for further down movement. Mean while, we use short strategies with short SL.
BTCUSD (BITCOIN)“Easy money” is having hard times as there still is no sign of reversal in favor of Bitcoin, but 20k seems to be acting as a psychological barrier in selling.
Market Structure:
After collapse in #btc price 3JULY price hits low of 18763$ now we see some buyer strength and they push price towards 15june high 22662$. here we see bullish pannet structure in the market which shows bulls profit booking here at 21681$.
NEXT MOVE
Here you can see green trendline resistance after breakout of resistance and and also POC volume profile. Volume is also high at current price. Breakout helps bulls to push price towards the TARGETS OF 22114$, 22604 & 25K Psycological level.
STOPLOSS :21200$
FUNDAMENTALS
Taking advantage of low prices, investors are increasing their Bitcoin holdings. According to data by crypto intelligence firm Glassnode, both Bitcoin shrimps (those who own less than one BTC) and Bitcoin whales (those who own more than 1,000 BTC) are stacking more BTC.
Waiting for descendingTechnically.
We have an 56 days of accumulation after downtrend. After up edge of the zone breakdown we came back into. Therefore RLCUSDT is nog willing to start a new uptrend. Form the other side, global BTC benchmark in nearly to start new uptrend, but RLCUSDT is looking for downtrend. We expect downtrend for the pair of RLCUSDT, but we would like to wait for a solid entrance. Meanwhile some stop-orders could be placed below the current price...
BTC ahead supports and compression of buy ordershello everyone
according to the us CPI 8.6% and highest number in past 40 years
probbably we walk throgh 0.75% interest rate increase.
so we lost 25500 support and now on 23500.
if we lose this level we can downward to 22000 and 20000 area
and after that 18000-19000.
this levels are so exciting for longterm holders and its an incredible accumulation phase.
but if the inflation dont stop , we also can see lower supports like 17000 or maybe 12000!
but according to the compression of buy orders in 20000 - 23000 levels i think these levels are
very important and if inflation record a high level and start to go down we dont go lower from this
levels.
Price Doubling Markup BrewingMajor major accumulation here. Can see in the DMI and stochastic, as well as the chart.
Activation of markup is above 98. My initial target is the 111-127 range by July 11-15th. If it makes it above 133 I expect it to continue to as high as 177 by August (post-earnings).
Goal Target by July 25th is 152-157. The yellow, orange, red zones are profit taking area - not financial advice but I like the July and August calls from 95-110, take some off in yellow, more off in orange, more in red zones. It will likely need to consolidate or pullback before attempting to break 133.
Look to Roku's past for evidence it has major runs in it, my belief is that the time for the next major run is about to begin.
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BTCUSD H1: 20% correction warning distribution(SL/TP)(NEW)
IMPORTANT NOTE: speculative setup. do your own
due dill. use STOP LOSS. don't overleverage.
🔸 Summary and potential trade setup
::: BTCUSD 1hours chart review
::: updated/revised outlook
::: distribution in range / weak chart
::: cycle low later July/August 2022
::: weakness will last for 4-8 weeks
::: LOG SCALE chart
::: not a great looking chart
::: rejected/booted from 20 000 usd
::: S/R was re-tested produced WEAK bounces
::: final BOUNCE possible 17/18 000 usd
::: also noteworthy sequence of lower highs
::: recommended strat: SHORT from 21 / 22 000 USD
::: final TP BEARS is 17 / 18 000 USD
::: 20%+ correction possible next
::: 4-8 weeks in July 2022
::: right now limited upside in this market
::: position traders should wait for
::: better entry prices later after
::: BULLS higher risk BUY near 17/18 000 USD
::: not a great setup for BULLS though
::: recommended strategy: SHORT SELL RIPS/ RALLIES
::: TP BEARS is +20% gains - near 17 000 USD
::: BULLS stay out until correction is over
::: SWING TRADE: SHORT/HOLD IT
::: correction run not over yet
::: good luck traders!
::: BUY and get paid. period.
🔸 Supply/Demand Zones
::: N/A
::: N/A
🔸 Other noteworthy technicals/fundies
::: TD9 /Combo update: N/A
::: Sentiment mid-term: BEARS/CORRECTION
::: Sentiment short-term: RANGE/MIXED
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Crypto, Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Don't sleep on NVAXWhat I am seeing here is the most sophisticated accumulation setup I have come across in the market - and CO has been doing this for NVAX cyclically every pandemic in the past. The company focuses on stopping the propagation of viruses, however, CO spins it by propagating demand (like a virus) and absorbing supply which they injected intentionally at strategic stages downstream! This is nice, nested markup activation.
Sorry if its difficult to see clearly, that is for me. I will post a followup idea where I zoom in and discuss the projected most likely scenarios. But here is the bigger picture that I wanted to present as surprisingly high probability targets/critical levels to watch in the coming weeks. I used MRNA epic run in summer 2021as a proxy, as well as a general method that I developed to make such predictions on Markup phases.
- Minimum Target by August is 119 (given that 79 can be breached in time - will discuss the time component in followup post).
- Sweet spot/target spot I'm expecting by mid September is 217-229
- If they invoke chaos w.r.t. demand and break above 171 by Jul 25th, then max target by mid-Septemer is ~350 (when such a squeeze occurs as it did last Jan, and it is highly likely is what we are about to see, establishing a point target is nearly impossible so the max target range 300-400).
*** NVAX activated markup on Friday July 1st. There is a nested activation that will trigger if it gets above 63-65 by July 11th-18th, and there is an carryover activation level at 171 which regained the capacity for activation on 3/21/2022 - for it to be reactivated, the price must break above it by 7/25/2022.
Smuggled between these activation levels, there are price (%) doubling and period halving bifurcation levels where the price will gap if hit. These require a massive squeeze, which NVAX is more than capable of currently - these levels are at 65, 83, and 217.
The next supply/demand equilibrium point is July 5th, so good chance they will announce approval before the bell tomorrow. Once time crosses the equilibrium point there are windows where the activation and bifurcation levels remain in effect. So if price keeps up with time or exceeds it, here is what I expect:
- Gap up Tuesday to trigger 63-65 and then continue to resistance at 79 by July 7th-8th
- After rejection from 79, it will pullback and test 65 for support, if that holds and it bounces I'd expect the 2nd wave of the squeeze to kick in and drive it above 79. They have the bifurcation set in place at 83 to gap it toward 100 once it hits 83.
- From there it gets tricky, because there is another nested markup activator that I haven't even discussed because its beyond the scope of this post, it was a distribution phase beginning in Jan 2022.. my theory is that it serves the purpose of kicking in the 3rd and final phase of the squeeze once 83 is breached. It is the only way I see this getting over 119. There is an attractor at 106 that could allow them to re-accumulate there in order to breach 119. If they make it to 131 it will begin a rally similar to what MRNA saw in 2021. For NVAX, it looks like above 131 will open the door for 171, then gap to 217-229, and finally run to 300-400 where they will begin the final distribution pertaining to Covid-19.
When its all said and done this will make its way back down to ~20 in 2023, likely even lower by 2024.