Correlation of price movementTHESE ARE TWO THEORIES. THE FIRST IS ACCORIDNG TO WYCKOFF, THE SECONS IS THE DOW THEORY
1) Accumulation begins with the price stopping and the formation of support, followed by the end of sales, the opposite level is gradually formed - resistance
and the price goes into a sideways movement. It has a name - Accumulative flat or consolidation. Dow says that it is impossible to trade in flat, this is not a place to trade
2) Consolidation ends when there is an update of the tops and someone from the sides - buyers or sellers, starts winning in the market, but it is quite difficult
to break through from the first time and often a large player deceives the players in this way by making a false breakout.
3) Wyckoff's theory mentions retests of the support level, a sequential movement that follows a stop. Assessment of the state of the lower limit of accumulation,
after which the market reverses and moves in the opposite direction to the previous movement. The accumulation is exited and the trend is reversed.
TREND
In essence, a trend is the direction of the predominant movement of indicators. Usually considered in the framework of technical analysis, where the direction
of price movement is implied. Charles Dow noted that in an uptrend, the subsequent peak on the chart should be higher than the previous ones, in a downtrend,
subsequent downturns on the chart should be lower than the previous ones. There are upward, downward and sideways trends. A trend line is often drawn on the chart,
which connects two or more price troughs in an uptrend, and connects two or more price peaks in a downtrend.
Accumulation
Bitcoin Accumulation Zone: Buyers vs Sellers
Hash Ribbons tells us to remain patient for the buy signal as capitulation continues
MA Ribbon suggests further downside, but price is at Weekly MA support
Bullish broadening wedge in the making, not yet confirmed
Buyers vs sellers accumulation zone in yellow
Based on the January 2020 VPVR model:
XAU Shift before bullish takeoffXAU has managed to break the two-week range between 1797.00 Upper bands and 1750.00 lower bands.
This consolidation comes as normality after extending a steep decline right off the 1900.00 zones as accumulation now shapes into form.
A projected re-test of the established mid-range sees a short entry opportunity toward 1775.00.
This establishes a confluence setup as price may bounce off the 1775.00 weekly reactive zones further continuing the bullish push toward 2104.00 later this year.
BTC about to rise againAfter Shaking out weak hands, the strong hands are interested in higher prices for Bitcoin, it has been tested here for multiple times and there are a few bullish signs
1. For most of the range, The price stayed above the fib 0.5(dashed line)
2. The price rises faster than I drops
3. The tests have passed successfully showing the market prefers higher prices now
P.S
If the range will fail to bring higher prices, BTC is going to drop hard (macro H&S on monthly)
BTC ACCUMULATION TRADEHey traders,
I just wanted to show you guys a trade I took, to express how I use wyckoff to get trade entries and predict price movement. Obviously I used a lot of other tools (which I won't disclose in my ideas) to get a read on the market in order to trade seemingly50/50 conditions. What is important about any method of analysis is to see it in real time.
I fyou found this insightful leave a like and follow, also check out my YT and Twitter links below , thanks.
Bitcoin Accumulation or More Pain to Come?As I've been saying. The best case scenario for Bitcoin during these upcoming months is to hold and stay above the crucial $30,000 level of support. Our worse case scenario is having daily and weekly candle closes below $30,000. Looking at the monthly chart we're approaching bearish divergence on the MACD and most likely will diverge. The question is can $30,000 continue to hold as the market continues to slowly sell off. How much more fearful can we get?
We are now back at the bottom of this channel once again. As long as we're at these levels expect Bitcoin to come back down and re-test the lows $28,750. This is nothing we haven't already seen. I can smell the fear, uncertainty, and doubt through my screen every time we range back down in the lower $30ks.
A couple things to keep in mind:
* On the Fear & Greed Index Bitcoin has been extremely fearful since May 14 and we continue to remain extremely fearful.
* This is the longest time in Bitcoins history we've been in a prolonged state of extreme fear.
* A Death Cross (200 day MA going below the 50 day MA) has already formed on June 19th.
* Bearish Divergence is approaching on the monthly MACD.
* Google Searches for Bitcoin are at a 7 month low.
* Unlike the 2017 market top & crash its confirmed that Bitcoin has been in a Wyckoff Distribution schematic. Which indicates there's big money, wall street, and major financial institutions are more directly involved in this market than ever before.
*It has so far been evident that Bitcoin between $28,000 - $31,000 have been very hot accumulations zones for whales. Of course that can always change.
*If we can't hold $30,000 then $20,000 may be our next stop.
This current market sentiment and fear will not be here forever. When we're very greedy then becoming extremely fearful becomes greater over time. After we've exhausted being extremely fearful then our human greed over time slowly starts to build up again. It is a constant back and forth.
We will come out of this period more resilient than ever. I do believe we will probably remain sluggish for the next couple of months if there's no decisive break to the downside just looking at the monthly charts. How low do we go? Nobody knows we need to take this day by day and week by week.
Don't forget the underlying power that you have by owning Bitcoin. You are you're own bank. You have digital property and freedom outside of our corroding financial system. Bitcoin is a powerful technology that monetizes peace, fairness, and mathematical integrity in economics. This is why its a big deal and will not go away.
Much peace, love, health, and wealth.
BITCOIN - Under Construction, If All Goes WellHello everyone, rouzwelt here
Here on the chart you can see the orange triangle formed which price has been respecting its boundaries relatively good except that little fake out. As price is reaching to the end of the triangle, the chance of seeing a breakout soon is increasing, as most of triangle patterns generally break at 60 -75% of their length and don't go all the way to the end. As of now price is at those general breakout area and is also sitting on the bottom line of the triangle, so technically, it has a great chance of breaking-down and completing the potential bear-flag formation. This is the most probable outcome right now if you look at the chart in classic TA perspective.
But that's not all, in fact that little fake out can indicate that the potential bear-flag may not be a triangle but a rectangle, as I have drawn it in the chart with dotted orange line, so if that is case then there's no ending point like a triangle flag, the ending point comes whenever the breakout happens, so if we extend the rectangle to the right side it will reach the main blue down-trend line. As you can see the price has already bounced twice from that blue trend line and as it moves inside the rectangle we can expect that it will bounce to the down side again when it reaches the trend line, as I believe the blue down-trend is a strong dynamic resistance and I will become bullish again if only bitcoin manages to break above it, but that doesn't seem to be a likely scenario at this moment with current information and sentiment in the market, but it still has almost 30 - 40 days to reach that point if we assume this scenario, in fact a lot of things can happen till then so we better analyze the strengths of the market at that point to see whether bitcoin can break above the trend line or not.
In my opinion, the most possible bullish price action at this moment and with current data, in pure TA perspective, is that price stays in the orange rectangle (30- 40k range) longer and builds a solid base in this range (the longer the better). It would give the chance for market participants to start accumulate and the sentiment to slowly change and bring back the lost interests. But any higher volatility is actually more bearish, even if it's to the up side, as it would just be a temporary reaction without much power.
Now let's take a look at the hourly timeframe. As you can see in the screenshot of my last post below (Link:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/OOrxsYBA-BITCOIN-Move-Your-Lazy-Ass/), I have projected the probable price action in my last post and so far it is playing out with good accuracy. I believe if a break-down is going to happen then right now is the best time for it, as in TA perspective, we have all the requirements, we see lack of volume at impulse moves up which indicates the lack of demand, higher volume at impulse moves down, which indicates more supply coming in, price is near the critical support level and have not bounced sharply like it did few times before, price has not been able to print any local higher high for past few days and is now at 60-75% of the triangle formation and we don't see bullish news having any meaningful impact, so it a good opportunity for bears to make their move. But let me say here that anyone can extract their own favorite signals from the chart and market, anyone can find reason to believe its bearish or bullish, but one must look at both possible directions and manage his/her risk based on the worst possible outcome for him/her, after all risk management is the most important and practical tool a trader has.
At last for those who are following my last trade, I should note that my short trade is still open at 32850, and I'm planing to move my SL to entry and take 30% profit whenever price reaches the 5% of my entry point.
If you've found something useful in this post then consider supporting me by hitting like and comment if have any opinion about my analysis and as always have fun and trade safe.
BTC/USDT Wyckoff Accumulation - 80% Accurate?BINANCE:BTCUSDT
My Cleanest that I can come up with.
What I did consider why somehow it is inaccurate.
1. Anticipation - Price where moved a bit and some are delayed in dip/pump. 1 reason: because of the market manipulation which will make this market a bit inaccurate down to 80% probability.
2. Fundamentals - Crypto fundamental analysis involves taking a deep dive into the available information about a financial asset. For instance, you might look at its use cases, the number of people using it, or the team behind the project. Your goal is to reach a conclusion on whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.
3. Significant Dates - For example. the 12th of July 12AM and July 17 2021. These are significant dates because of the events that may come.
Example for that is GBTC wallet release for July 17th of 2021.
4. Technicalities - I am just allowing myself to have fun with the market it allows us to make educated guesses about whether a digital asset's price will increase or decrease in the future.
5. Market Psychology - my observance and collection of wallets to produce prevailing behaviors and aggregate sentiment of market actors at any point in time. The term is often used by the financial media and analysts to explain market movement that may not be explained by other metrics, such as fundamentals.
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REF: www.investopedia.com
Phase A
The selling force decreases, and the downtrend starts to slow down. This phase is usually marked by an increase in trading volume . The Preliminary Support (PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up, but still not enough to stop the downward move.
The Selling Climax ( SC ) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors capitulate. This is often a point of high volatility , where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop quickly reverts into a bounce or Automatic Rally (AR), as the excess supply is absorbed by the buyers. In general, the trading range ( TR ) of an Accumulation Schematic is defined by the space between the SC low and the AR high.
As the name suggests, the Secondary Test (ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region, testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point, the trading volume and market volatility tend to be lower. While the ST often forms a higher low in relation to the SC , that may not always be the case.
Phase B
Based on Wyckoff’s Law of Cause and Effect, Phase B may be seen as the Cause that leads to an Effect.
Essentially, Phase B is the consolidation stage, in which the Composite Man accumulates the highest number of assets. During this stage, the market tends to test both resistance and support levels of the trading range.
There may be numerous Secondary Tests (ST) during Phase B. In some cases, they may produce higher highs (bull traps) and lower lows (bear traps) in relation to the SC and AR of Phase A.
Phase C
A typical Accumulation Phase C contains what is called a Spring . It often acts as the last bear trap before the market starts making higher lows. During Phase C, the Composite Man ensures that there is little supply left in the market, i.e., the ones that were to sell already did.
The Spring often breaks the support levels to stop out traders and mislead investors. We may describe it as a final attempt to buy shares at a lower price before the uptrend starts. The bear trap induces retail investors to give up their holdings.
In some cases, however, the support levels manage to hold, and the Spring simply does not occur. In other words, there may be Accumulation Schematics that present all other elements but not the Spring . Still, the overall scheme continues to be valid.
Phase D
Phase D represents the transition between Cause and Effect. It stands between the Accumulation zone (Phase C) and the breakout of the trading range (Phase E).
Typically, Phase D shows a significant increase in trading volume and volatility . It usually has a Last Point Support ( LPS ), making a higher low before the market moves higher. The LPS often precedes a breakout of the resistance levels, which in turn creates higher highs. This indicates Signs of Strength (SOS), as previous resistances become brand new supports.
Despite the somewhat confusing terminology, there may be more than one LPS during Phase D. They often have increased trading volume while testing the new support lines. In some cases, the price may create a small consolidation zone before effectively breaking the bigger trading range and moving to Phase E.
Phase E
Phase E is the last stage of an Accumulation Schematic. It is marked by an evident breakout of the trading range, caused by increased market demand. This is when the trading range is effectively broken, and the uptrend starts.
WHERE IS BITCOIN? ACCUMULATION OR REDISTRIBUTION?Accumulation and Redistribution always looks same until one side is broken. Schematics may mislead us.
Just looking at the textbook wyckoff schematic and trying to fit it in the current price action makes no sense at all. Both accumulation and distribution can come in infinite ways.
So we should look at the rallies and declines, in our case I choose Redistribution Scenario #1 as the most probable.
Still it is mostly hard to distinguish between them.
Rallies are very weak, dumps are relatively stronger.
Supply trendline cannot be broken for weeks which is also a sign for re-distribution.
Generally, accumulation do not come just after a mark-down. It needs more pain.
GBTC premiums are negative which is a super bearish indicator also.
DXY is making a bull run which opposite correlates with BTC price often.
I opened at a short at 35.700 with low leverage since it is not very easy to predict if it is acc. or re-dist. if price goes up I will add more to my shorts.
We may see any of these scenarios, but according to wyckoff laws and past experiences, I feel like we are in re-distribution. Scenario #1 or #2 ? I am not sure. Tİme will tell.
This is not an advice.
Is BTC ready to pop?Hello tranders,
This is kind off playing with chart analysis, but taking Wyckoff theory as a baseline, I still believe we are somewhere in Accumulation phase (Spring / test) and I feel we should be witnessing some fundamental hot news to break current sideway movement and start ascending to the moon .
Disclaymer: This is just high level analysis and not financial advice.
cheers
BullRobin
Accumulation technique DOGE/USDHi everyone. This will be my first idea and I’m excited to be learning about chart analysis using short and long term trend lines, multiple different EMA indicators, MACD and volume.
I’m going to focus on Dogecoin chart because that is what I’ve been using to accumulate more tokens by selling during a down trend at a higher price, then buying back after the dip.
Even if you may have lost some funds during the recent crypto dip. You can use this method of risk management to minimize the losses in the long run.
During this post I will just share with you my thinking and mindset with some pictures of a group chat where I’m involved. I will get more into chart analysis soon but I’d like to hear some feedback from you guys about my system.
Cheers
Gold Accumulation - LongHi Traders,
We have broken structure of accumulation and have formed a SOS (sign of strength) as well as strong LPS (last point of supply) at 1800-1795.
Based off the cause and effect of the accumulation, the calculation using the PnF chart as seen below gives us a target area of 1920 - 1955.
We have had high volume sells and low volume buys however have continued an upward trend and made new highs and higher lows with a strong demand curve/line formed from the low of the spring. This fact along with Gold moving in the same direction as the DXY shows its strength over USD and possibilities for a rally upwards.
Fundamentals also agree with the buying of gold due to Basel III policy - www.marketwatch.com Covid 19 Delta tensions - www.cbsnews.com and news just released with Biden and Putin tensions over ransomware Russian hackers.
This is not taking into consideration the potential tapering talks and increased inflation possible in the near future.
Commitment of Traders shows the following of Non-Commercial Traders:
Dated: 07/06/2021
Long: 270,545 Short: 87,724
Change: 16,339 Change: (4,256)
This means institutions have opened more long positions and have closed short positions with a much higher percentage of longs than shorts.
Bank participation still shows 34.5% as short and 11.3% as long, however, this changed in the recent in favour of longs with long being increase by 1.1% and shorts by 0.5% - www.cftc.gov
A potential entry could be:
Entry: Between 1800 - 1815
Stop Loss: Below 1790
Take Profit 1: 1860
Take Profit 2: 1920
Take Profit 3: 1955
This would be roughly a 1:7 R:R.
This is not financial advice
Trade with caution
BTC WYCKOFF TRADEHey traders,
I've spotted Wyckoff accumulation happening on the 5min timeframe and just got decent entry conformation to take a 1:4 R:R trade. We will be targeting the 50% fib of imbalance with a stop at the lps. (you can enter on a this slight pullback). If this plays out as expected then BTC may potential move higher in the short term.
like and follow if you found my analysis helpful and want more detailed price action breakdowns
Accumulation Breakout for Alibaba GroupAnalysis Forecast:
Price Trend Turned Bullish
Analysis is for:
US Market
Short-Term Trading
Tactical Single Stock Allocation
Supporting Technical Observations:
1. Breakout of Downtrend (Supply) Line
2. Breakout of consolidation Base
3. Fund Flow Index (FFI), turned positive
1st Technical Target
US$250.00
Why this Level?
1. Key Supported turned Resistance Level
2. 261.8% Fibo Level
3. Whole Number
Incorrect Analysis if Level Breached:
US$204
Are We Going To $80k?Here's the deal,
As being one of the first trades to point out Accumulation, i've been at both sides of the story. Price being right at the middle of the trading range, it's time to evaluate current situation from both angles.
1- We are in Accumulation.
The spring action is being tested and breaking 37k would validate it along with higher highs and lower lows.
In Wyckoff analysis, horizontal column counts are used to calculate potential. Right now we have 17 columns (17x3x1000=51.000) and this fuel is enough to take us to 80-84k area. Wait, but aren't we going to 100k? Well that's the psychological target, but the current state of our data says we have enough fuel for 80-84k.
The good news is that the more we go sideways the higher we go.
2- We are in Redistribution
The poor rally and break of the uptrend are weaknesses that can validate a redistribution. However, the 17 column count far exceeds the current price level, which i mentioned in my previous analysis. We simply can't fall below zero :)
So, in an effort to make this work, i've segmented the structure in to two at the second highest volume drop. That is the last 5 columns and that equals to a 15k drop, taking us to $20k as widely rumored.
Calculate Your Risk
If we want to open a long position today with a traget of $80k and a stop loss level at $18k, our risk to reward ratio will be 2.76 - at the worst case (if we are not going to $10k). This means If you invest $100 today, you'll have $376 when the price target is reached. Not bad.
However, if the shakeout happens, the worst case we can see is 18k, meaning a ~50% drop. Will you be able to handle that stress without selling? TBH I don't know the answer, but the reward is still 2.76x if you stand strong. With proper risk management and position sizing i believe this risk can be mitigated.
Final thoughts
I see 2 possible scenarios now:
1- A rally towards 80k followed by a small re-accumulation, taking us above $100k
2- A break down to 20k followed by 7-8 weeks accumulation, following a rally towards 80k, followed by small re-accumulation towards $100k.
I'm really neutral here, but looks like $80k will be an important level.
What's your take? Go long now, or wait for 20k?
Bitcoin: Wyckoff Update (See description for Redistribution ideaUpdate on my last Wyckoff Post I have linked below, we are still floating above the Weekly Support (Green) area but underneath Tesla average buy price. Failure to stay above 35800 is a Sign of weakness for me in the short term. Also there's a clear Bear Flag structure there.
This is my rough plan for now I am hedge short but looking for another sound long term entry to ride the PRIMARY TREND which is bullish.
If the Wyckoff "SPRING" is failing or a deeper spring then the next logical area for me is $MSTR MicroStrategy's average buy in price of $26080 per coin as a potential support area.
Technically we could have a "Spring" type action even down at those areas and as long as we come back inside the trading range would be a valid Wyckoff Accumulation.
My Wyckoff Accumulation Idea is linked below.
Here is a potential Redistribution idea, note the clear formation of the Diagonal trading range. For the bulls to have a chance short term they need to reject this bear setup.. simple.
Let's Assume We Are In An Uptrend & The Dip is InNow that everyone turned bullish, i wanted to analyse the possibility of an uptrend.
Let's start;
We have seen a higher high (HH) on June 29th at $36.600 following a higher low (HL) which are bullish signs, but notice how the HH felt $650 short from the top of this so called uptrend! It should have made a high at least at $37.253 which was the close of May.
It didn't and that's weakness. Maybe what we were looking at was an upthrust after distribution (UTAD)?
Now, price has just touched $35.750, the old weekly high and pulled back, we should see a jump towards $40k if this uptrend is real.
That's a $5k candle.
Bitcoin is know for it's unpredictability, it certainly can do this jump but i would like to see that candle first before i enter a trade. Because if this is just a nother trap, then we are looking at a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in wyckoff distribution theory which ends up in a markdown like the one we had back in May 8-10. Look how we made HH's and LH's until the huge drop and notice the weakness.
Speaking of wyckoff, i'm seeing lot's of uneducated comments and analysis on this, even from the famous social media gurus.
When you ask them, they would reply; "I'm not a wyckoff guy" LOL :)
One should - at least- know that there are 4 schematics in Wyckoff Theory not 1:
1- Wyckoff Accumulation
2- Wyckoff Re-Accumulation
3- Wyckoff Distribution
4- Wyckoff Re-Distribution
Everybody is referring to Wyckoff Accumulation and how it's on track, however re-distribution schematics is almost identical until phase C. That's why validation of the schematics is very important.
These weaknesses we have seen until now does not validate Accumulation and it's a signal for re-distribution unless we see that candle at 40k's.
So, is it worth to take the risk now? No.
BTC is accumulating, what's next?Took the theory behind Accumulation and Distribution and applied it to current BTCUSD market.
You can learn about it here: youtube.com slash watch?v=BHKm-jsSM6M
(Phase D might start later than indicated.)
In theory the 'last point of supply' would be the perfect spot to enter long.
BTC Current Wyckoff SchematicAnalyses of Trading Ranges (Stockcharts.com)
"One objective of the Wyckoff method is to improve market timing when establishing a position in anticipation of a coming move where a favorable reward/risk ratio exists.
Trading ranges (TRs) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand. Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR.
In both accumulation and distribution TRs, the Composite Man is actively buying and selling - the difference being that, in accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold while, in distribution, the opposite is true. The extent of accumulation or distribution determines the cause that unfolds in the subsequent move out of the TR."
Source and more great basic intro information for Wyckoff Method:
school.stockcharts.com
While BTC Holds Above the Previous Tesla buy in area 34200 expeciting a push to 40k or further as a confirmation of Accumulation.
The next confirmation of Wyckoff is a SOS ( Sign of Strength / Jump Across the creek) followed by LPS (Last Point of Support) to confirm the beginning of a move to Mark Up Phase.
See schematic here for reference:
ibb.co