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a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. If you are a regular reader, you know by now, that i’m the first to acknowledge and point out my errors. I’m tougher on myself than the internet could ever be. Today was another humbling day for bearish takes on the market. One would think the odds for deeper pullbacks rise with each consecutive buy climax. Not today anyhow. Having invalidation prices for your market take is crucial for survival of your account and always have a stop in place. At the end of trends the odds of an exhaustive move are high. You can see this on higher time frames as on lower ones. This parabolic move today has a very high probability of being one but bears need to show strength soon. dax bull case: Very strong day and odds favor the bulls because they are in control and we are making higher highs. That’s the reality. Can bears print big bear bars and take over to reverse the whole day? Yeah i think so but it’s low probability. Bulls bought low and we are very high again. It’s also true that the last weeks bulls weren’t eager to buy into new highs and the pullbacks we got, got bigger. So tomorrow would be interesting to see if bulls can close above 17400 or not. Measured move from today’s spike (we had a spike-pullback bull trend today) is 17600. bear case: Bears will try to sell the highs again because the last couple of days/weeks they made money doing so. They need to trade down to a potential neckline 17290 and then form a higher low before they have a decent chance of lower prices. short term: down to sideways - pullback is expected but bulls are in control. higher prices are possible but i think sideways is the most likely outcome for tomorrow medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17200 - bulls got one and another would change my mind until i see the monthly close. i still expect this Februar to close below 17000 but it’s far away trade of the day: long since globex open bar 2 because marked gapped up and never looked back. could have bought every pullback coming close to the 15 20ema also. after bar 29-32, there was 75% of a bull trend day and higher prices and one should not look for shorts after such a strong move until bears clearly took control and for that they have to break bull trend lines and trade below the ema - the higher the time frame the more reliable
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
1
a daily price action after hour update - nasdaqGood evening and i hope you are well. Bears making lower lows but bulls buy them. That means prominent tails above and below bars and you have to be humble about your scalps. Markets don’t go from big bull to big bear trend and betting on breakouts after mind boggling rallies is low probability and a losing strategy. nasdaq Bears tried all day to get the market down and bulls just bought the last hour to reverse 12h of price action. After hour spike was big enough for many stops and we will probably range between 17400 and 17800 the next days. Nvidia’s earnings were happening while i typed it. Interesting bar from 17409-17618. But also changes nothing. Market is looking for the next trend and we keep ranging until a strong one has formed. It’s up and down and down and up. Confusion is the hallmark of a trading range. I think anything above 17500 is an incredible short opportunity. This spike might just retest the bull channel breakout and will be faded hard. Don't be exit liquidity at these highs. bull case: Bulls bought 17400 and had a very strong close above the 1h 20ema. They now want a higher high above 17620 to stop the bears from making lower lows. Since the selloff was around 700 points, i expect some bulls who scaled in lower, to exit their longs along the way and the best the bulls get is another lower high below 18000 and first they need to close above the daily 20ema too (around 17570). bear case: Bears want a lower high below 18000 and preferably below the open of the week 17722 to keep late bulls trapped. The month is almost over and the close of this months bar with the new ath is very important, if bears manage to close it below the old ath 17716, it’s a sell signal. They want the tail above to be as big a possible. Anything below 17300 would give us a bloodbath March. short term: sideways - probably inside a range 17400 - 17700 (ignoring the after hour spike for now and wait for globex open). open of the week was 17722 and spike high was 17683 medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 18300. trade of the day: just short since EU open - 15m 20ema was resistance until the last hour and you had to get out on bar 58
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. In my weekly outlook i talked about the major trend reversal for most indexes since the bull trend is coming to an end and we are in a trading range at the highs imo. Markets are in the process of forming a top and confirmation would be lower lows by the bears now. Today was a good start. sp500 In my weekly outlook i said down then sideways, that was good for +45 bull case: Bulls bought the pullback to the bull trend line which started early 2023-12. Market has formed a triangle and bulls want to test the 1h 20ema, the bear trend line above and they need to close the bear gap to 5000, otherwise it’s a sell signal. They do stopped the bears today at 4970 and odds favor sideways here first. bear case: Bears see the lower high double top with the ath. They got their pullback to 5000 and now they want to keep the gap above open to trap late bulls. If they succeed in keeping it open and making 4995 resistance, we could easily drop to 4900 this week and maybe even 4880ish. But let’s get the first bear target and then evaluate again. short term: sideways - bulls could close the gap and trade more up to form a lower high below 5030 but i give the odds to sideways medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: selling 4990 and buying 4975 - mostly trading range price action (or a broad bear channel, it does not matter because you trade them the same) where you either stay away completely or buy low and sell high and scalp
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. My bearish outlook or at least i gave the higher odds to the bears was wrong and bulls just kept buying everything today. Tomorrow is Opex and all markets are at big resistances again after beginning the week with a selloff. Tomorrow has the potential to be wild. I see it as a trading range at the highs and the recent rally had 2 bigger moves, with 3 smaller legs inside. My next best guess is that odds favor the bears and we get a two legged down movement for which i drew the first one potentially playing out tomorrow. Please note that the odds of this are very slim. Bulls are in control but buying up here is beyond bad from r:r point. Shorting this could also blow your account pretty fast if market decides that we need another ath 200 points above. Doing nothing and waiting for easier trades is a legit strategy. dax Dax had a big spike from the open and bulls used it to take profits. They tried twice to bring it back up but failed at the January high 17123. Dax closed right in the middle of opening price and the spike high. The US session kept buying at lifted dax above the previous February high 17151, inside a very tight bull channel. bull case: Bulls trapped the bears and just went higher since yesterdays close. They now are near the ath and want to print a higher one. Their problem though is, that the risk:reward of buying up here is bad and the selloff at the beginning of the week was strong enough to make traders cautious to not get trapped above 17100 again. If bulls can keep it above 17057, odds are high for even higher prices. bear case: Bears see 4 pushes up from Tuesday and see it as a trading range on higher time frames. Risk:Reward is clearly on their side to sell up here but first they need to stop the bulls making higher highs. Their first target is the 1h 20ema at 17100 and make the market go sideways there. short term: sideways to down medium-long term: down - nothing will change that. trade of the day: long since Globex since the gap never closed (again, i know). alternatively could just buy everything near the 1h 20ema since Tuesdays lows
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
a daily price action early hour update - usd/chfGood morning and i hope you are well. USD/CHF bull case: Bulls want the breakout of the triangle and bear channel here to test the 2023-11 and afterwards the 2023-10 high. The rally looks good enough that they can get it. Measured move target is right in between those 2 targets. If they can get the breakout, the market cycle changes from bear trend to trading range and the downside will probably be limited. Since this is a 20+ year bear channel, it has to find a bottom eventually right? bear case: Bears need to step in here to keep it inside the bear channel or the targets given above are very high probability. Since this is the third touch of the upper bear trend line, odds are not all that great to break it on the first try here. Ranging here is more probable but for that, bears need to print bear bars and right now there are none. First target for the bears is to stop the rally and then print back below 0.872. short term: odds favor sideways but rally is strong and i would not do anything here unless the bulls keep printing strong bars, then it's clearly continuation of long medium-long term: sideways. markets do not go from trend to trend, bottoms and tops are formed over a period before a new trend emerges
by priceactiontds
a daily price action early hour update - oilGood morning and i hope you are well. wti crude oil bull case: Bulls still have the 80 target in sight and they are buying all pullbacks. The uptrend is weakening but i think then can get there. The 1h 20ema is holding pretty good and we are right at it. So it's a buy. The drawn wedge could get us there but bulls have more trend lines below which can hold. Last time bulls got near 79, bears surprised and trapped many late bulls. I don't expect something different for now. Invalid below 77. bear case: Bears look at higher timeframes and it's a big trading range. We are in the upper third and they sell the highs because they made money the last times they did it. Until bulls get consecutive big bull bars above 80, odds favor a continuation of this trading range 70-80. I doubt bears will die defending 78/79 and we will probably at least reach last weeks high 77.29 or 80 before more profit taking by the bulls and shorting by the bears unfold. short term: up to 79/80 before sideways to down medium-long term: Sideways until clear break of range between 70-80
NYMEX:MCL1!Long
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - goldGood evening and i hope you are well. For gold i updated my weekly chart and bears proved me very wrong. Here my quote from the weekly outlook: short term: slightly bullish to top of triangle, invalid below 2030 Obviously they did break below big time and now bulls are doing everything they can to keep this above 2000. bull case: Bulls have to keep this above 2000 or bears will take over and push this to 1950. Since we are in a big trading range for a long time, odds favor the bulls for a short term bounce, probably to around 2020/2023 where market decides what’s it gonna be next. bear case: Bears broke out of the triangle and closed the bullish gap, now they need follow through. If they are strong, they should be able to keep it below 2030 and then sell to their first target 1990 and then 1950. short term: bearish - expecting some smaller bounce before more down medium-long term: odds for the bears risen significantly today. if they can get follow through, we will form a proper bear channel soon from which we can calculate new lower targets below 1900. still neutral until follow through trade of the day: short below the CPI bear spike for bet on follow through
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today we witnessed a perfect bull trap above the recent new all time highs for US markets. Here is the most important quote from my weekly outlook i posted yesterday: We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. The higher highs maybe higher than i anticipated, yet the thesis was and is perfect and if bears can get follow through the next days, the highs are in for maybe a decade. sp500 Quote from yesterday’s weekly outlook: We could easily see a 200 point drop to the daily 20ema because no one wants to be left holding the bag buying at the ath and the market is overdue for some sort of minor correction. Bears wont get a bigger one until we have traded more sideways at the highs. Biggest question now is the monthly close and if bears manage to close it below 5000, i think its very likely that the highs are in for the year. Targets for the bears next week are 5000, 4950, 4900. Market rallied hard and fell harder afterwards to close below Friday’s close. Perfect bull trap. bull case: Bulls made another ath and have many support lines to buy from. As long as they keep it above 5025, bulls are still in control. They want to trade back up from the lower bull channel trend lines for at least a retest of 5050 or 5066. bear case: Bears stepped aside for the opening rally to a new ath, just to aggressively sell the double top bar 13 at 5065. The sell off was strong enough to expect a second leg and a measured move would bring us right back to 5000. They trapped many late bulls and many more will have stops around 5020/5000. So if bears can generate good follow through, we might see more big profit taking. Next target below 5000 is the daily 20ema around 4940. short term: sideways to down medium-long term: medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: long from the open because it was right at the 1h 20ema and bar 9 was a good 15m bull signal bar and short bar 13 (was a perfect double top on the 5m chart)
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by priceactiontds
Yemi_Fx1 | Bearish Setup on NZDUSD Hello folks, OANDA:NZDUSD is one of the pair I have on watchlist this week. NZDUSD has been trading within an ascending channel since . Price recently tested the 1HTF supply zone at 0.61584, a potential resistance zone. From Daily Timeframe: The pair is currently in a consolidation phase following a downtrend. We're expecting a continuation of trend on this time frame. However, on 1HTF we may experience a pause in price to provide a continuation pattern giving us an opportunity to join the train or we just wait for the complete break and retest of the structure to then go Short on it. If you found this helpful please support your fellow trader with a like.
Short
by Yemi_Fx1
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - tesla #1Good evening and i hope you are well. "Uuuuh another degenerate calling out big NASDAQ:TSLA targets, booooooo" My bad for making you click on this. Enjoy your evening. Now that we are over that, lemme give you my reasoning for it and then you can make up your own thesis. bull case: What might that be i ask myself many times now for the last weeks. Very best i could come up with is, that the broad bear channel is broad enough for bulls to make money a couple of days in between the sell offs. That's it. If you are a bull and bought above 200, you might be in for a ride here. Please spare me your macro schmackro and how Tesla will have autonomous driving in the next 5 years. You are embarassing yourself since 2015. bear case: Only question is, how deep and how fast can this drop over the next months or years. Insanely overall bullish market and Tesla is in a weak broad bear channel, grinding lower for 25+ months. like do you honestly believe the overall market conditions will get better from here on? They bought the SP500 and Nasdaq like there is no tomorrow and this stock had nothing but disappointmen for bulls for more than 2 years now. This was orderly selling in a very confined channel. Next phase is the bulls-giving-up phase. short term: sideways to down. medium-long term: down - what would change that? trading above 270 Here an outrages take on top, if Tesla gets consecutive daily closes below 145/140, it's free fall and Cathie Wood will be retired.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by priceactiontds
1
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - alibaba #2Greetings, Last time i wrote about Alibaba was 2024-01-30 and i just read something about a WSB 'investor" betting big on higher prices for this stock. Boi. I mean. Does anyone seriously look at this chart and think? G, this looks like it found a bottom and is ready to go back to the moon. If you do so, enlighten me with your thoughts in the comments. This stock is on it's way lower. It can't trade more than a couple of days above the daily 20ema and it's still making lower lows. Could the January low at 66.63 hold and we make higher lows from there? Sure but the odds of that are low and market has to at least retest that price. I still think market will go lower and will probably retest 2015 & 2022 low around 57/58 and even then it has to trade way more time sideways before one could conclude, that the bottom is in. There are so so many trapped bulls who will use any bounce to reduce their losses. Maybe it's not a good short below 80 on a weekly timeframe but it sure as hell isn't a buy unless you do not care at all about another possible -40% and would happily add on to longs there. Potential low could be around 60 but we do not know that by looking at the price action so far. Markets do not go from one trend to another or at least it's so rare that betting on it, will lose you money in the long run. Bull case: Best they can pray for is sideways and find a bottom around 60. They have to be quick to take profits because of all the trapped bulls using any bounce to reduce their losses. Bear case: Bears want to retest 58 and until bulls generate more buying pressure and bears fail to make lower lows, they will continue short this relentlessly. Clear down trend on multiple time frames and it's clearly SELL THE RIP. short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find the true bottom and until all bear channels are broken and market testet the lows multiple times, it's sideways or down. medium-long term: Sideways until no lower lows and consecutive bigger bull bars without an immediate selloff the next days
NYSE:BABAShort
by priceactiontds
202407 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood day and i hope you are well. Bulls made new all time highs on dax, sp500, nasdaq and the dow (those are the ones i cover, so i don’t care about the rest). Since i don’t think this is the beginning of a new stronger trend, where we rally another 5-10%, all bullish targets are met imo. My focus has now shifted to a change in the character of the market. We had amazing bull runs, next logical cycle is a trading range before we get a new bear trend. We already ranged at the highs for some time now and for most indexes it’s just a higher high and now i expect a major trend reversal. Hence the title, the bear awaking. A week ago i raised the thesis that we are very close to the end of this bull rally and Opex might be a good opportunity to trap many late bulls. You can argue that it’s quite stupid to talk about bearish targets after many new aths and rallies and that may be so. I have given you my reasoning and now it’s gathering evidence and looking for the signals. Now comes the outrages part this week. I mentioned a couple of times now that these highs are a good place to start long term shorts. Shorting here at the tops, has the potential to be the trade of a lifetime. You don’t get that many multiple year long major trend reversals. Everyone wants to buy low and sell high but when the time comes, who has the balls and nerves to do it without losing it all? dax Dax has not moved in 2 weeks and that’s only due to weakness by the bulls. If they had the strength to produce a new ath or the retest, it would have happened by now. If you want to short the highs, you still need a wide stop to factor in a spike. So at least 17250/17300. bull case: Bulls need a strong daily close with follow through the next day. Right now they are still closing above the daily 20ema but market the doji closes are helping the bears more than the bulls. Since most indexes rallied so much the last days, the bull case for dax is very weak imo. bear case: Bears need to show strength and a daily close below 16950. If they get that, i think the odds of dax trading quickly down to 16650 are high. They see the 4 tops that failed to close above 17132 and wait for bulls to finally give up. They got 3 days of lower highs and lower lows, so we are already in a bear channel inside this bigger trading range. But we are also in multiple triangles so market will break out soon. outlook last week: “Neutral here. Both sides have reasonable arguments and i don’t like to guess these odds around 50/50. Just wait for strength with follow through. Will update this anyway in my daily updates“ → Last Sunday we traded 17025 and now we are at 17032, outlooks do not get better than that. short term: bearish. we will get a big move down next week or the week after. could go sideways for week before the move. odds clearly favor sideways, just to be very clear about that, yet i think bearish price action is reasonable and due. medium-long term: down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300.
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURShort
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good evening and i hope you are well. Today was the day i started talking about around 2 weeks ago. The price action of the last 6 days was conclusive and i had no doubt market will reach the given bullish targets for more bear pain. SP500 e-mini futures printed 5020 and printing a new ath tomorrow is highly probable. I hope you played it and made some. Quote from 2024-01-21 short term: up up up - can’t see this not printing 5000 in the next days or 2-3 weeks. Can markets reach even higher targets or will we get big profit taking and a correction? That’s the million dollar question and i can’t answer it for you, nor can anyone else. We are in the business of following big institutions and the given price action, not fortune telling. Other furus give you sensational clickbait targets which suit your bias, i won’t. My bullish bias has concluded with today and i see absolutely no reason to buy anything at these highs anymore. I am neutral short term until bears show up and bulls begin to take profit. After a first correction with follow through, i will evaluate lower prices but it’s unreasonable to talk about any bearish targets for now. sp500 bull case: Bulls printed 5020 and they want to party to continue. Can they even print higher prices? For sure but are you willing to buy the highs here? I’m not. Odds favor a new ath but you need a far better entry than 5015-5020 to have a good r:r for this. bear case: Bears need to show strength. Their first target is a close below 4980 (1h 20ema is around 4982) but i think the best they can hope for is a trading range at the highs before we get a major trend reversal. Today was 0 bearish price action, only bulls who took profits imo. short term: sideways medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: Tight trading range in EU session let to nothing, wait for breakout and enter above a good signal bar, breakout bar 27 should have been the long of the day. no reason to exit until close
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - daxGood evening and i hope you are well. Today markets tricked many traders into strong moves in a weak environment. The move’s seem like they will break out of the range but they fail at resistance over and over again. It’s a neutral market where buyers and sellers agree on the middle of the range as the fair price. You have to play the range until there is a clear breakout or you don’t trade at all. dax Groundhogs day. Bears tried and bulls bought it. Bears stepped aside enough then to let Dax print a new high for the year. Biggest question right now is this: Was the move today strong enough for another leg up and a new ath? I doubt it but i think it’s higher probability than trading below 16800. bull case: Bulls are still in BTFD mode and they made a new high for 2024. A measured move target from today’s move would bring us above 17300 and i think this is more probable than bears showing strength and bringing this below 16800. 16950 is big support and at least a retest of the ath at 17199 is my base case. bear case: Bears see it as a double top with the January high at 17120. They want to continue inside the range 16950 - 17100 but they are weak and quick to take profits. Until bulls stop with BTFD, you should not bet on a bear breakout below given range. I still think my thesis for the blow off top and a quick drop is valid and the next bear cycle can begin. short term: sideways to up medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 17300. adding to long term shorts here at the highs trade of the day: BTFD. I hate repeating it but market currently does exactly the same
EASYMARKETS:DAXEURLong
by priceactiontds
a daily price action after hour update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood evening and i hope you are well. Markets went sideways today, as was expected and laid out yesterday. We are forming many triangles, which means that prices are converging and we get a break out soon. Bears tried a bit but bulls bought it, which confirms my thesis of higher prices. I still expect a bit more sideways movement. If i had to guess, i’d say we reach the tops before Opex and crater into or afterwards. But that’s guesswork and you should not trade on such things. Let’s look at me painting and how the sp500 did today. Sell vacuum to support from the open down to 4937, which was 5 points above Friday’s open. Bulls bought it and bears stepped aside. We closed 11 points below the open. Daily 20ema + 15m 20ema is pretty flat and we are in multiple triangles. Odds just scream more sideways until breakout. bull case: Yesterday i said a pullback is in order and we will probably trade sideways, that was pretty spot on. Now we wait for the bull breakout and a new ath or a couple. I have no doubt market will print them. bear case: Still not much. Best they can hope for is a trading range and stop the advance but they are weak and when that changes, you will notice. It’s still BTFD. short term: Sideways to up. Look for longs. medium-long term: Down - what would change that? two consecutive daily closes above 5100 trade of the day: Short from the open after bar 37 and exit on a bull bar. Buy the 3 bar reversal (bar 39, 40, 41), latest bar to long 44
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
NMDC Simple Price Action AnalysisNSE:NMDC in the past was in a severe downtrend, then it created the first Bullish Pattern known as a Falling Wedge. Most often falling wedges change the trend and that can be seen in this chart also. Price has started creating Higher highs and Higher lows which is a signal of the beginning of an Uptrend. Hence the expectation is price should continue its upward trajectory. The First Target could be 163, which will be approx. 24.90% Return on Investment. The Second Target could be 234, which will be around 79.31% Return on Investment. And the Final Target, for now, could be approximately 439, which will be around 236.40%. With this stock, our Earning is not limited to the Return on Investment rather we will also keep on Earning from the Dividends that we will receive from time to time, which will also act as an additional income. Disclaimer: Stock trading is inherently risky and you agree to assume complete and full responsibility for the outcomes of all trading decisions that you make, including but not limited to loss of capital or even provision of additional margin in futures trading. None of the stock trading calls made by Prosenjit should be construed as an offer to buy or sell securities, nor advice to do so. All comments and posts made by Prosenjit, and employees are for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be used for actual trading.
NSE:NMDCLong
by priceissupreme
2