Descending Triangle + Inverted A & E could = Doom for ETH:BTCI believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to get my complete trading strategy and click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below!
Previous analysis/position: Have been thinking/tweeting about shorting it
Patterns: Descending triangle on weekly with target of 0.002. Can kind of see an inverted h&s on daily but do not give it credence
Horizontal support and resistance: R = 0.058 | S = 0.05
12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12 is currently acting as resistance | 26 = -5%
50 & 128 MA’s: 50 = -12.3% | 128 = -19.71% | Recent death cross
FIB’s: Not very helpful, but could see 0.382 at 0.06
Candlestick analysis: Hanging men from two and three days ago should provide fractal/stop loss
Ichimoku Cloud: Fully bearish with Tekan-Sen acting as resistance | Weekly cloud is at 0.019
TD’ Sequential: 9 on the buy setup and 13 on the buy countdown on the 3d. R-9 on the weekly with a R-2 > R-1 | Not very helpful on daily
Visible Range: Point of control over last 24h = 0.0574 | POC over last 5 days = 0.0578 | POC over last month = 0.05688 | POC over last year = 0.0715
Bollinger Bands: MA acting as resistance on daily. Near bottom band on weekly.
Trendline: On weekly connect 1/29 to 5/14.
Daily Trend: Chop (up on the day)
Fractals: UP = 0.0587 | DOWN = 0.054
On Balance Volume: Very flat in 2018. Putting OBV on top we can see that volatility is on the horizon. This is confirmed with the normal volume indicator, has been extremely low since spike in Dec of 2017. Expecting another spike in volume soon.
ADX: Daily ADX = 52 which indicates the need to range while it returns to 20 | Weekly ADX created a higher low and had a recent bearish cross. Indicates plenty of room to trend (unlike daily)
Chaikin Money Flow: On weekly it is > 0.2 and climbing fast | Bouncing sharply from -0.03 on daily.
RSI (30 setting): Bouncing off 30 on daily. Recently fell below 50 on weekly.
Stoch: Oversold on weekly, angling for a bullish cross. Recent buy signal on 3d (has been a very good signal in this bear market). If it resists 20 then it could be ready to dump hard. Approaching overbought zones on the daily.
Summary: Originally I wanted to short right now due to risk:reward provided by most recent up fractals. However I am going to hang tight due to:
Stochastic on the 3d
Daily, 3d and Weekly TD' Sequential
Stop order is set at 0.0524 to open a short as soon as the triangle breaks down. Watching for 1-4 candle correction on the daily to provide a very favorable entry. If we retest the top of the triangle then I will be opening the full position.
ADAM-EVE
Breakout from falling wedge confirmed! Target 9.5-9.6k and UP!As I said in the last idea as long as we could flip the buy/sell line from resistance to support on the 50ma we would confirm our breakout from the falling wedge, and this is exactly what has just happened. There are a few potential price targets we could reach from this breakout with the safest guesstimate being around the 9.5-9.6k range. What's more by reachung that price range we will also beak the slanted neckline of both the adam and eve double bottom and the eve's cup and handle pattern which if that were to occur then are next destination is 15k! I accidentally called the falling wedge a rising wedge in the last idea and it is too late to edit that but I'm sure most of you could infer that I was talking about the falling wedge consider the few ideas before it I was referring to it properly. Brainfarts like that can occur because even though I know the wedge itself is falling I'm focused on the fact that the priceaction will be rising out of it and sometimes accidentally say rising when I mean falling. Anyways breaking up from this wedge is Huge because it can allow us to break the neckline of the double bottom and shoot to 15k possibly as soon as June. My new mantra is "To the Moon In June!" There is a slight chance that because that neckline is so pivotal that we may see a slight bit of resistance again once we connect with it and we may see a slight bounce downward from there but I believe at most it will only form a new higher low and then bust through it the 2nd or 3 rd time it tests the neckline. For this reason it may be wise to maybe set a limit sell around $9477 with a stop buy set up a pip or 2 above the slanted neckline of the double bottom/c&h combo. If we break above it and then make are way to 15k....it likely won't stop there folks. Let's remember that we broke up from a much larger falling wedge on the weekly chart all the way back at the beginning of April that had a projected upward target of around 18.8k I highly anticipate we not only reach that by this quarter or next...but that we will climb even slightly higher than that and may see aroun 25k or so before the next big downtrend occurs. Of course, along the way we will experience some sideways consolidations and retracements that create higher lows but I don't foresee any major downtrends again until late July at the earliest and more likely not until september. Of course this is just my impression I could be wrong so make your own decisions and dont consider me a financial advisor or this financial advice.
We already reached the neckline of the adam & eve on 5/5!A very important update on bitcoin! I would have posted this much sooner, but as murphy's law would have it, just as everything reached the neckline, and the turned back towards the downside, my computer's hard drive failed and the day prior to that I broke the lcd screen on my phone essentially locking me out of my crypto accounts. Phone took 2 days to fix, but my computer has been having all its data backed up on it for the past 5 days in a row and micro center still hasn't finished backing it up yet. So for now I've had to resort to using a lenovo tablet that's memory can't handle more than a webpage at a time and trying to move trendlines around on a chart takes 10 times as long because it keeps moving the wrong trendlines. Because of these technical difficulties, it took me way longer than it should have to go back and reevaluate the double bottom trendlines and come to an exciting and very encouraging realization. The Adam portion of the double bottom's left trendline is actually a notch or 2 higher than the tip of its right trendline. Because of the height difference between the 2 lines, the neckline of the double bottom is actually on more of a downward sloping angle than originally thought. Due to this, the curving pink eve trendline has already converged with the neckline of the double bottom on May 7th, but the price action actually already broke above the neckline 2 days prior to that on Cinco de Mayo. The price action did not stay above the neckline long enough to trigger the double bottom breakout however and is likely now just forming a handle to attach to the eve portion of the double bottom's cup like exterior. Eve seems to be multi tasking taking on the roles of both a cup and handle and a double bottom at the same time. The question now is just how deep and how wide Eve's handle will go before it breaks upward and back above the neckline to trigger both the cup and handle and the double bottom. One guess I have is the longstanding horizontal grey line that has acted both as strong resistance and strong support in the past. It sits just below the 9,000 mark, and that is around the exact same area that the projected price drop of the recently triggered head and shoulders pattern had us dropping to as well. On top of that we can see that the 4hr stoch rsi now has plenty of room to go back upward and that the standard rsi would just then hit oversold conditions upon reaching that zone. All a perfect recipe for a huge rebound bounce. Hopefully you followed my opinion from a few ideas back on limit selling a few pips below the psychological resistance of 10k with a stop buyback set up a pip or 2 above the 1day chart's 200 MA that was sitting as strong back up resistance just above the 10k resistance. If so you'd be sitting pretty right now, and could buy back in comfortably once this handle's downtrend is finally over for a nice profit. It's exactly what I was planning to do myself but having both my trading devices break on me back to back days prevented me from getting my limit sell in on time. Next time I will be better prepared and will always expect the unexpected. One thing to never expect however is for what I share here to be financial advice, for it never is and your financial advisor I am not. Choose your own path and make your own decisions if you choose to base any of your decisions on any of my ideas you do so on your own accord and at your own discretion. I wish you luck and in my next idea I will go into details about the hidden cup and handle fractal I'm seeing throughout many alt coins right now and how it lends feasibility to the entire price action of 2018 from bitcoin being potentially inside one big cup and handle pattern Stay tuned for that one and as always, be excellent to eachother and thanks for reading!
Reversal Zone and future price interest levels - MAIDBTCWith price at all time lows and a pattern emerging looking like an Adam and Eve bottom , the risk to reward has a lot of potential (considering price won't move to 0) with the risk being low and the potential rewards to be rather outlandish considering the position in the market.
The fib tool is using a method I've come up with using the positive powers of two - (X-Y)^{2^1, 2^2, 2^3, 2^4, 2^5, 2^6, …} . These are our profit areas as well as future support and resistance levels, the higher the power the lower the probability. Assume each level being exponentially harder than the previous as each level has an absolute change of 100%.
I tend to overlay all of my charts with a combination of volume and momentum indicators to help assess patterns and strength behind them as to ensure higher probability chance of success. I do not use these indicators as my primary resource in trading, they are the last thing I pay attention to before execution and the first thing I look at when scanning for potentials.
OBV and RSI is used to show divergence and trend changes, ATR to see how strong movement is.
The zones in green are explained in my other ideas linked below 'Areas of liquidity interest & Impulse gaps' and 'LTC & BTC Multi Idea'. My powers of two strategy is linked into the idea 'Eth is a monster' (I haven't explained how it works until now).
Happy trading and don't forget to manage your risk.
ICX/BTC - trading the adam and eve confirmationDaily chart on left highlights Adam and Eve reversal pattern (A&E). With A&E reversal pattern we need the bottoms to be more or less at the same level for it to be valid. On the ICX/BTC chart it is a little stretch to call it the same level, but on ICX/USD it fits nicely. A&E reversal has a V shaped bottom (adam) followed by a rounded U shape bottom (eve), forming a double bottom. Adam, always precedes Eve. Once eve forms her high there will be a consolidation (handle).
For the adam and eve reversal pattern to be valid we need to break up from this handle, which is happening now. In this case our handle is a falling wedge.
Chart on the right shows 4 hour candles. We had bullish divergence on RSI and we saw strong move up beyond the upper limit of our falling wedge. We would like to see price be supported by the upper line, and then a move upward.
EP: .00045-47
TP 1: .00069 (start of heavy resistance area)
TP2: .0007752 (.786 fib retrace line and target from A&E)
TP3: .00084 (end of heavy resistance area)
*** not investment advice, educational purposes only.
Still Several Large Bullish Patterns on Daily Chart.When things are feeling bleak, remember to zoom out.
On the daily chart things still look pretty bullish.
We made an attempt to break through 10k (a big psychological resistance) which was also the neckline on an inverse head and shoulders bottom. Which didn't quite make it. I don't think this has invalidated it, it just needs another go, and BTC frequently does the unexpected. There is also a large ascending triangle very much still valid on the map.
Large Ascending Triangle (purple)
Bullish signal, narrowing towards 10k.
Target = 12,955
Large inverted head and shoulders (green)
The major reversal is still in play. Neckline passing through 10k.
Target = 17,377
Adam and Eve (blue)
I'm also keeping an eye on the forming of an Adam end Eve, double bottom, which needs to break much higher, around 11,700
Target = 15,320
Of course we don't enjoy seeing pullbacks like this. But we need them to actually build these large patterns.
Patience, if you dumped and are conservative, wait for the breakout to jump back in.
Patience, if you held, and you're looking for more support you might find it at the ema 100 or at 8888 where there's a slightly ascending line of support that has held a few times since April 21st
Potential Adam and Eve double bottom On the daily chart, there is a large, active, double bottom bullish reversal pattern known as the Adam and Eve.
The shape of the pattern typically has two distinct valleys that differ in shape and together hold a descending volume profile.
The traditional long entry occurs after pattern completion on the breach of horizontal resistance with high volume at ~$11,440, which also represents yearly pivot resistance (not shown).
The pattern yields a 1.618 fib and measured move between $14.400 and $17.000
XEM/BTC Pattern, Pattern, Pattern. What do you think?I am not saying you should buy XEM, but i recently did. I think the risk to reward is great, because XEM is still around 0.786 fib line (200% till previous ATH). Also Adam&eve/cupandhandle formed, breakout expected.
This is not financial advice.
If you have any feedback or remarks, please feel free to comment below.
Peace and trade safe!