$ADBE Adobe Continued Ascension$ADBE Adobe looking like a solid buy after tagging the lower trend line yesterday (while holding the 50d ema) of a tight bullish channel it's been riding since late 2017. RSI has not dropped below 40 this year and reversed off that level today. Adobe is a solid company with a great track record of earnings beats. Two possible trade targets below.
Short term target - $258.90 (previous ATH)
Medium term target - $270.00 (upper channel limit)
Note: Observation/opinion, not investment advice.
ADBE
[MSFT] Strong Tech Stock Looking to break Resistance at ATH!Similar breakout setup to CSCO and ADBE.
Adobe's leading out of the triangle, I suspect both MSFT and CSCO are gonna follow suit in strong way.
MSFT's an all around solid company, not much to say other than they have huge influence on the sector and aren't failing to innovate. Azure Cloud platform is challenging Bezos' cloud at AMZN, the Windows OS will be fueling growth for a long long time, and they're always getting into new areas of expansion by building on top of the core Windows products.
Adobe ADBE slowstochastic is coming up!Adobe ADBE slowstoch is coming out the 20 zone.
Title is coming from a 6 consecutive loosing days and slowstochastic crossing above 20 could be a good signal of reversing.
Stock strenght is above 63.
Watch the stock and lets see on lower timeframes if there is a entry signal (may be 212 to 212.24).
If today the stock makes a PBT&CA at 212.24 that is my entry point!
Disclaimer:
This is just my tought: don't invest based on this idea.
ADBE 10-Day-Ahead Prediction - 04/02-04/13 PeriodAI/Deep Learning Enabled 10 Day Ahead Predicted values for Adobe Systems Inc - ADBE have been plotted on the chart.
The method used in this prediction is Deep Learning based, and using complex mathematical models to extract hidden time series features in vast amounts of ADBE related data.
The expected 5 Day Change is 1.8900 %
The expected 10 Day Change is 2.9667 %
Predictability Indicator is calculated as : 0.823
Predicted 10-Day Ahead Prices are as follows:
Mon Apr 02 Tue Apr 03 Wed Apr 04 Thu Apr 05 Fri Apr 06
218.33 218.97 219.16 219.56 220.16
Mon Apr 09 Tue Apr 10 Wed Apr 11 Thu Apr 12 Fri Apr 13
220.81 221.36 221.78 222.14 222.49
Please note that outliers/non-linearities might occur, however our AI Enabled predictions indicate the softened/smoothed moving direction of the stocks/commodities/World indices/ETFs/Foreign Currencies/Cryptocurrencies.
QQQ in troubleAfter forming an island reversal last week, complete with a massive bearish engulfing candle off of all time highs, the break below the trend line support and 20dsma seemed fitting. Today's action was bearish, as volumes were subdued relative to recent down days. This suggest that few participants are eager to defend prices in a significant way and bid the market higher, so it seems bears have taken control of this market. I'm a seller, especially specific names heavily weighted in the index. I closed TWTR short today after huge success, added to NFLX short, initiated ADBE and FDX short, stood still on my TSLA short, and opened a deep OTM FB long put after noticing unusually high volume at the April 115/120 strikes (several spreads, buying the 120's and selling 115's and massive volume relative to open interest). I also took a flyer on ORCL, buying April calls for a bounce, as this selloff seems overdone.
Bottom line... Watch out below!
THE WEEK AHEAD: ADBE, OIH, XOP, GDXJ, EWZ, VIXWith the VIX dropping hard below 15, some of the juice has poured out of the cup ... . Even so, there remain a few plays in the market.
ADBE announces earnings on the 15th (Thursday) after market close. The volatility metrics don't quite meet my criteria for a volatility contraction play (56/32), but the March 23rd 210/323.5 short strangle is paying 3.80 at the mid with that setup's defined risk counterpart, the 205/210/232.5/237.5 iron condor, paying 1.69, just a smidge over one-third the width of the wings. These are off hours quotes, so neither of these may look as attractive during regular market hours when things tighten up. Nevertheless, worth keeping an eyeball on.
The remainder of earnings announcements on tap for next week either involve poor liquidity underlyings or have implied volatility in the lower half of their 52-week range, making them singularly unattractive for the standard play.
In the exchange-traded fund neck of the woods, OIH and XOP retain fairly decent background implied volatility at 31, as does the junior gold miners fund, GDXJ. My preference is to pull the trigger on these underlyings directionally. With GDXJ, I would like slightly lower (sub-30 would be great). A touch of caution is warranted, however, since there is a bit of divergence between gold spot prices and both GDX and GDXJ, implying that if gold goes lower here (it's got room), the miners will weaken even further, so trade these small in the event that support terms out to be meaningless (i.e., you're dead ass wrong as to direction).
As far as "the Brazilian" (EWZ) is concerned, the April 20th 43/49 (40 days until expiry) short strangle is paying 1.25 at the mid; it isn't hugely compelling, but it's a sub-$50 underlying after all. If you're going to pull the trigger on that setup, however, I'd do it soon, since we're quickly getting outside the 45-day sweet spot.
VIX futures term structure has finally returned to a modest degree of normalcy, with contracts in contango front to back. I'm still waiting for a few UVXY short call verts to pull off here that I put on in the hot and heavy of early Feb, so am going to hand sit until I'm able to quit sweating over those. The forecast, however, is for contango erosion/beta slippage to resume (it already has) in UVXY and VXX, implying that they will continue to pretty much go down from here over time (naturally, in the absence of another pop).
Sep 20 Earnings: Adobe's Competition and Expenses are burning.Adobe is a wonderful company with a great array of products and services. The company has been gaining traction with its cloud offerings allowing for the conversion of enterprise customers to Enterprise Term License Agreements (ETLAs), resulting in higher Creative Cloud adoption.
However, with great power comes great responsibility, and Adobe's expenses have been on the move with its foray into AI and Virtual Reality.
A pullback on behalf of higher expenses and guidance becoming slightly more conservative over the longer run is warranted.
I believe the stock's price is not currently pricing in the company's competition and expenses.
A short term sell with a $145 to $140 PT for the next 2-3 months.
Adobe Trend Reversal or Buy Opportunity?
Adobe (ADBE) exploded upwards on Friday, March 16th after reporting their earnings. At the same time, a huge reversal bar formed on the daily chart with the close at $126.94. The following trading day’s bar closed just below the low confirming a possible reversal of a pretty massive uptrend the stock has been under over the last months. Not to mention, Adobe and Microsoft (MSFT) have announced a joint venture in customer engagement and marketing, as well as an Adobe announcements of new cloud services. The cloud services could become a new commercial source of revenue, especially with Adobe’s niche in the creative marketplace as opposed to cloud service providers like Amazon’s (AMZN) AWS.
But is it time to go short and sell? Well, for now, yes, or with less capital risk, fade the reversal. Fundamentals for the company are strong, with growth showing in the long term. But our strategy is a swing strategy to take advantage of lower risk opportunities. This trade with a stop loss above the high of the reversal bar at $130.30 is definitely not the lowest risk of them all, but a credit spread might suffice before a high potential for bullish continuation in the long run.
If you’re an options player like myself or a straight underlying trader, then here’s a few sets of trades depending on your investment style.
1) Short the stock
Entry: any price today
Stop: $130.31 on market close
Trail it after two more days of closing bars until breakeven. If the trend has started in the downward direction, trail it to our middle moving average and follow it until the bulls take over
2) Credit Spread
Sell X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 130 Strike
Buy X Call, 21 Apr 17 Exp, 135 Strike
Max Profit: ~13% Return on Risk/Investment
3) Stay on the sidelines, and wait for a buy signal fractal for medium/longer term trade
Buy X Amount of Calls, 20 Oct 17 Exp, 115 Strike
Again, from a technical standpoint, we currently rate Adobe (ADBE) a Sell in the short term, but the bullish uptrend has a high likelihood of continuing in the medium to longer term due to the fundamental outlook and growth opportunities for the company.
Until our next article.
THE WEEK AHEAD -- FOMC, FOMC, FOMC; LONG VIX; OIL; EARNINGSHere's what I'm looking at for next week:
VIX/VIX PRODUCTS . VIX finished last week at 16.50. I will look at VIX/VIX product setups early next week depending how the "horse does at the gate" (Monday). If we see a tight range in the S&P like we did pre-Draghi in prepation for FOMC, VIX could drift go a little lower Monday through Wednesday, in which case I will want to use VIX, VIX, or UVXY to go "long volatility."
Index ETF's . There is little sense in selling April expiry premium here in broader index instruments with VIX the way it is. Brazil, oil/gas, and the gold space continue to have the volatility, but I'm already in all of the underlyings that have any juice in their options that are at 70+ implied volatility rank (UNG (covered call), EWZ (iron fly), GDXJ (short strangle), RIG (short strangle), GLD (credit spread), and XOP (short strangle) in those sectors.
If you look at SPY implied volatility month-to-month, it doesn't approach something "regular" until the June expiry (19.9%), so I may look to set up some small premium selling play in the June expiry on the possibility that low volatility sticks around for a period of time and to have something in the queue for that event. Trying to sell 45 DTE premium in the index ETF's in a period like we had last year between mid-March and late August was a total slog ... .
Oil . The 2016 high was set on 1/4 at 35.36 in USOIL. it tested the underside of that level Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of last week and broke through it by a whopping .20 cents on Friday, so who knows whether that'll hold. If oil caves, the S&P will follow hard (the S&P currently has a .93 correlation with USOIL). However, oil has a tendency to enter fairly lengthy consolidative periods before moving directionally forward, so be prepared for oil to taunt you with both suggestions that it's going to break significantly higher and indications that it's going to totally implode ... .
If you're into trading spot forex, watch oil's effect on the petro currency USDCAD. The Loonie may get a double whammy from a cave in oil plus Fed tightening/dovish-hawkishness. The Loonie's entire strength profile from 2/11 is largely on the back of oil.
EURUSD. This is the strong/weak pair to watch post-Draghi and running up into FOMC. For me, this is not a pair I would mess around with "playing in the middle" between 1.08 and 1.10. As I did last year, I would wait for it to hit 1.14 and then go short if it's inclined to react to the upside on whatever FOMC says; otherwise, stay out. The fundamentals on this pair should be telling everyone to only short on strength (ECB easing; Fed tightening), as attempting to play the 200 pips between 1.08 and 1.10 has been and is likely to continue to be somewhat discouraging as it looks to find its footing in the larger range between 1.14 and near parity.
EARNINGS. Although the earnings season has been described as "over" for this quarter, there are a few issues that are still due to report that might be worth playing, assuming that the volatility is there: ORCL (Tuesday, after close), FDX (Wednesday after close), and ADBE (Thursday, after market close). As it stands right now, none of those meet my implied volatility rank rules (70th percentile plus), with all three of those having percentiles hovering around 50, but naturally that might change running up into the actual announcement.
$ADBE - Model Eyes 97.11 Reversal; Geo Sees 46.85 TargetSYNOPSIS:
Predictive/Forecasting Model sees reversal at 97.11
Geo's Off-Set Rule #3 sees support at 46.85
Interim Bullish support expected at 66.60
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, CO - USA
Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: www.tradingview.com
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