Updated Market Top Based On Upward MovementNow that we have returned to Primary wave C in Cycle wave B up, the new forecasted top is contained herein. This will likely extend the final drop into later 2024 than initially proposed in the last analysis since Cycle wave B will likely last an additional month and go higher. We are most likely in the final Intermediate wave 5 up, while it is slightly possible we are in the corrective Intermediate wave 4 down. Confirmation of wave 4 would be a low beneath 4360 before a high above 4480. If in Intermediate wave 5, Intermediate wave 3 was 30 trading days long, gaining 400.19 points and extending 177.36% of Intermediate wave 1’s movement. If Intermediate wave 4 completed, it was 5 trading days long and a loss of 120.39 points for a retracement of 30.08% of Intermediate wave 3’s movement. July 5 would be considered day 6 of Intermediate wave 5 however, the most recent market top was 2 trading days prior at 4458.48.
For the market top forecast, Intermediate wave 5 could have the following statistics based on waves ending in 2BC5. Quartile extensions of Intermediate wave 3’s movement (light blue lines) are 121.05%, 153.2%, 186.17%. The models do not point to a specific length however there are windows of potential lengths. Windows are 6-8 days, 12-15 days, and 24-26 trading days long. Based on waves ending in BC5, quartile movements (yellow lines) are 122.06%, 137.71%, and 153.2%. This is interesting as the original median level is now the 3rd quartile movement level which indicates 153.2% may not be achieved. This would indicate the market top remains below 4660.26. The strongest model agreement for length of Intermediate wave 5 is at 8 and 10 days. Second most model agreement is at 4 or 25 trading days, while third agreement is 4, 12, 14, 18, and 20 trading days long. The broadest data set is for waves ending in C5. The quartile levels are (white line) 109.46%, 122.9%, and 151.06%. The models agree the most at a length of 5 or 12 days. Second most agreement at 6 or 10 days long, third at 20 days long, fourth at 9 days, fifth at 7 or 30 days, sixth at 14 days. I have also drawn a new trendline from the beginning of Primary wave C (the low on March 13, 2023) to the end of Intermediate wave 3 (the high on June 16) to act as the prior support line becoming the new resistance. I may use the intersection of this line with the levels mentioned above and the trading day lengths to identify potential reversal points.
Additional considerations should be made in determining how far into Intermediate wave 5 are we if that is the correct wave structure. Intermediate wave 5 is composed of 5 Minor waves and each minor wave is composed of Minute waves. A 30 minute chart indicates my wave 3 indicator was signaled around the highs from June 30.
This indicates that Minute wave 3 inside of Minor wave 1 was completed or Minor wave 3 was completed. Intermediate wave 5 is nearing completion if Minor wave 3 was already accomplished and the total top could be as soon as July 7th. If the market is still early in Minor wave 1 then the market top could be more than 10 trading days away.
Potential intersection points for 8 days long (July 7th) are at a top of 4485.21 or 4531.60. Intersections for 10 days long (July 11) are the same levels as 8 days with a top falling just shy of 4600 (the original forecasted top from July 2022). 12 days would extend the top just above 4600, and 14 days places the top around the 4630 range. 20 days is the max on the model agreement and tops out around 4685-4690.
Based on the levels, lines, days and consideration of intersections I don’t think the market top occurs after mid-week next week. Economic reports are this Thursday and Friday with the CPI reading next Wednesday. Although month over month inflation continues to increase in the U.S. the number has declined each month. A rise in this report and lower job losses this week could support a new Fed hike as early as then end of July. I would place the market top around July 11-12 around 4530. This would further support the theory Minor wave 3 has indeed completed and Minor wave 5 could have a drawn out 5 wave structure upward.
Once again, we shall see if this is the top. I will provide updated downward targets next weekend once this forecasted movement completes. Feel free to follow for updates and future forecasts.
