AMD - Correction And LongsHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of AMD.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After the massive triangle breakout on AMD in 2016, we saw a rally of more than +7.000% towards the upside. After the recent bear market in December of 2021, where AMD perfectly retested previous structure, we saw another rally of +250%. I am now waiting for a retest of the triangle breakout level mentioned in the analysis and then I will look for even more long setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Advancedmicrodevices
AMD - Finally a correction?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at AMD .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2022 AMD perfectly retested the previous all time high which was turned support after AMD stock broke it towards the upside in 2020. Furthermore AMD stock also created a bullish symmetrical triangle formation and already broke out towards the upside. More often than not we will see a retest of the breakout level, potentially bullish confirmation and then the continuation towards the upside.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
AMD Strong buy on the 1day MA100.Advanced Micro Devices / AMD hit the 1day MA100 after more than 5 months and the first long term buy signal is flashing.
It has completed a -30.15% decline from the recent High, being a Higher High on a Channel Up of almost 2 years.
The last correction from June to October 2023 was exactly -30.15%.
Exploit a double entry strategy with the first buy here on the 1day MA100 and the second if it drops more to the 1day MA200.
The bottom is confirmed after the 1day RSI forms a Rising Support.
Target 260, being the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which formed the high of June 13th 2023.
Previous chart:
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AMD: Near the 2 month Support. Strong Buy.AMD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.240, MACD = -3.040, ADX = 37.221) as it got heavily rejected on the 1D MA50 last week. Nonetheless, it is close not only to completing the -28.56% decline, which is the maximum fall it has had since the October 13th 2022 bottom, but also near the S1 level (162.00), which is February's low. The chart shows that every time AMD had dropped under the 1D MA50 while on this multi year Channel Up, it was a strong buy opportunity. Only in August it kept falling, but not aggressively until it found support on the 1W MA50.
Consequently, we treat this as a effective buy entry, aiming for a +61.60% increase at least (TP = 260.00), like the October - December 2023 rebound.
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AMD flashed the strongest 1W sell signal you can get.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has hit the top of the Fibonacci Channel Up last week and immediately got rejected, closing the 1W candle almost flat. This is a significant 1 week turnaround, which may evolve into a bearish reversal as the 1W RSI gave the strongest sell signal possible.
That is reversing on the 82.50 (overbought) level, which since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis has always delivered a strong medium-term correction. If we focus on the last 4 years alone, we can see on the chart 4 such correction events ranging from - 21.50% to -39.50%.
As a result, we are sellers on AMD, aiming at a $180 minimum (-21.50%). If it drops more, we will wait for a more comfortable buy at $140 (-39.50%), which should potentially make contact with either the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) or the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). The latter has been a former Resistance during the Bear Cycle that turned into Support after May 2023, while the 1W MA50 has two clear bottoms that evolved into aggressive rallies since the week of May 01 2023.
Basically this signal is more useful to long-term investors for when taking profit and how to make two lower buy entries and manage the long-term risk effectively, while having a $300 long-term target.
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AMD: Start selling. Top this or the next week.Advanced Micro Devices is excessively overbought both on the 1W (RSI = 82.711) as well as on the 1D (RSI = 74.269, MACD = 10.910, ADX = 31.889) timeframe. Since the October 23 2023 Low, which was a 1W MA50 HL of the long term Channel Up, the stock price has risen by almost +130%. The previous HL-to-HH Bullish Leg made a +143.89% rise. We are very close to that level, so we expect the stock to price its new top this week or the next. In addition, the 1W CCI has been trading sideways but above the overbought limit since November, similar pattern as the sequence that led to the June 2023 peak. It is worth to start selling now, targeting close to the S1 level (TP = 165.00).
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AMD: When will it End?For AMD, we've continued to see this rise since our last analysis, partly due to very positive news in the market about chips, indicating that chips look very promising in the near future, as expected. AMD rose by 9% yesterday, and pre-market, it's already opening up by 3% higher. We believe that the 161% mark will be reached quite quickly. This Wave (3) could potentially be much larger than the 227.2% mark, yet we think that this range will be a good point for the next correction to occur. However, we should quickly reach this level of $216.
It's important to remember that, on a larger scale, we are also in Wave III, which should be positioned significantly higher compared to the subordinate Wave (3), which lies between $216 and can reach up to $368 maximum. That would be quite impressive, but realistically, it's likely to be between $216 and $266.
AMD Double Top formed. Time to pull-back?Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been rising non-stop before February, and gave our last solid buy on our December 12 2023 analysis (see chart below):
Since then, it formed a High (Higher High for the 1.5 year Channel Up) on January 25 2024 and Resistance 1. On Friday it touched this level again, which is so far a technical Double Top formation. As long as it holds, we expect the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to break for the first time in 4 months (since November 01 2023) and approach the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
On top of that, the 1D RSI is on Lower Highs that broke below the Higher Lows which has been the Sell Signal during the previous three occurrences. Our target is a minimum of -19.38% decline such as on the June 26 2023 Low. If the 1D MA100 breaks, we will open another one to target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 0.382 Fibonacci Channel level at 130.00, which will represent a -29.77% drop, being the total decline on the October 26 2023 Low.
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AMD Has it finally topped? Short-term sell in order?Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been rising non-stop giving us excellent pull-back buy opportunities since our December 12 2023 analysis (see chart below):
This time however it has gone as close to the top of the 18-month Channel Up as it has been since the beginning and is printing the same peak pattern it has formed during all previous Higher High formations. In addition, the 1D RSI is on Lower Highs that just broke below the Higher Lows and that has been the Sell Signal during the previous three occurrences.
We are targeting a minimum of -19.38% decline such as on the June 26 2023 Low. If the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) breaks, we will open another one to target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 0.382 Fibonacci Channel level at 130.00, which will represent a -29.77% drop, being the total decline on the October 26 2023 Low.
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AMD - Starting to Accumulate.AMD - Currently down 50% from ATH starting a position for long-term.
Looking to add at levels of support indicated in cyan. Big bids at 59-50 and 34-29.
Short-term trend change if yellow zone gained. Targeting orange around 100 for profit taking.
Looking for new ATH on gain of purple.
Market Top Looming For AMDRan through historical data on AMD and have quite a few signals of interest. The first event is bullish and calls for a move into the larger green box. Typically my signals come with a delay until the final movement is achieved. In this case, my Aggressive Multi-time frame indicator fired based on January 22, 2024 closing price. The signal was bullish, however, the common delay sees a retracement into the are of the pink box. Today, AMD moved down into the pink box possibly satisfying the delay prior to moving above the signal price and thus completing the signal.
Although the delay and successful signal have both occurred, the stock cannot trade straight sideways forever. The likely direction is still very bullish, even if the stock were to revisit the small pink box in the next two days. Believing the stock will continue up, the question then becomes how high?
I figure we are in the final end of an impulsive wave C. The five waves in this wave C are the larger Yellow numbers from when the wave began at the low on October 26, 2024. Yellow waves 1-4 are likely completed and we are in the final wave 5 upward now. Some of the common reversal points are highlighted with the wave extension levels on the right. 100% of wave 3's movement is at 151.05 while 200% is at 185.73. A wave 5 typically does not breach the 176.40% level therefore placing a likely top below 177.55.
This yellow wave 5 is composed of five smaller white waves, of which 1-3 are likely completed and it is unknown if wave 4 was completed today too. Wave 4 could complete if there is additional downward movement within the next two days. Once wave 4 is confirmed the final white wave 5 will coincide with the market top. The same levels are interest on the left likely indicate a top below the 114% level. A common top is normally no higher than the 106-110% mark for micro fifth waves. This would likely keep the top below 177.20.
I am not trying to find the top, but more of when the top could occur and what happens afterward. White wave 1 was five days, while wave 3 was six days. White wave 5 will likely be five days or less which is January 30. AMD reports earnings on January 30. There is a chance, either earnings, the outlook or a combination of factors do not fair well for AMD. There could be a final rally during the day on the 30th, until earnings come out after hours. AMD has debt that is due this year and the Fed's decision, but more likely its outlook on rate cuts this year could have a major impact on the refinancing of that debt. AMD could hold off on refinancing their debt if they believe cheaper rates are coming soon. If the Fed takes rate cuts off the table, do not provide a time table for cuts, or state factors enabling rate cuts are yet to be seen will force AMD to refinance their debt at higher rates. This could force them to sell stock (normally at a cheaper price), raise prices (consumers are already squeezed there) or another path not favorable to the short-term profitability.
The earnings fall out will hit the stock on January 31. The Federal Reserve provides the next decision point on January 31. There is another signal that triggered at the close on January 12th that remains unfulfilled. That bearish signal indicated the stock could fall below 146.56 before February 20, 2024 based on historical data. The actual target box for the movement is the large yellow box on the chart. Based on the 383 studied occurrences, the signal is correct 91.361% of the time. Correct in this case would require a movement below 146.56. This instance could fall into the 8+% of failure, or it could occur via a longer path. I am positing AMD could crash down into the yellow box after fulfilling all signal price targets (pink, green, and yellow boxes).
The Fed and earnings are only the beginning of the downward movement. I am still bearish on the market in the short-term (rest of 2024) even though I have called for the drop to occur in the prior months. The market is at new all-time highs, but are things really better than they were on January 3, 2022?
AMD Advanced Micro Devices Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AMD Advanced Micro Devices prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 185usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-2,
for a premium of approximately $5.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
AMD - All Time HighHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of AMD.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2016 AMD broke out of a long term triangle reversal pattern. This breakout was then followed by a pump of +5.000%. After the 2022 pullback of 70%, perfectly retesting previous structure, we are not certainly back to a bullish market on AMD. If we see a retracement back to the structure mentioned in the analysis, I am certainly looking for more long setups on AMD.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
AMD's Soaring Stock: Riding the AI Wave with TSMC in Its Sights
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMD ) is making headlines as its stock experiences a remarkable 11% surge, riding high on the coattails of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), the world's leading chip fabricator. The recent boost in NASDAQ:AMD 's stock price is attributed to TSMC's bullish signals regarding the robust demand for AI semiconductor production. This surge not only underscores the vital partnership between NASDAQ:AMD and TSMC but also positions NASDAQ:AMD as a significant player in the rapidly evolving semiconductor industry.
TSMC's Impact on NASDAQ:AMD 's Trajectory:
NASDAQ:AMD , heavily reliant on TSMC for chip manufacturing, finds itself on the brink of a potential record high. TSMC's fourth-quarter results, although flat compared to the previous year, exceeded expectations, signaling a positive momentum shift. The crucial role of artificial intelligence (AI) in driving this growth aligns seamlessly with NASDAQ:AMD 's focus on enhancing its position in the GPU market, where it currently holds a second-place position behind industry giant Nvidia.
TSMC's Q1 fiscal year guidance, with a projected 10% increase in sales compared to the previous year, further cements the positive outlook for $AMD. Despite a potential dip in Q1 revenue, TSMC historically experiences cyclicality, suggesting a return to annual sales growth for the company. This, in turn, bodes well for NASDAQ:AMD , reinforcing its status as a key player in the semiconductor space.
NASDAQ:AMD 's Strategic Moves in AI:
While Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) for AI applications and data centers, NASDAQ:AMD is carving its path with strategic investments and innovations. The announcement of a new chip, positioned to rival Nvidia's H100, indicates AMD's commitment to competing at the forefront of AI applications. Analysts also highlight AMD's efforts to improve its AI software, addressing a historical preference for Nvidia's chips over AMD's.
NASDAQ:AMD 's GPU and CPU Focus:
Beyond the AI segment, NASDAQ:AMD 's prowess extends to both graphics processing units (GPUs) and central processing units (CPUs). As the second-largest standalone GPU maker, AMD aims to narrow the gap with Nvidia by securing performance wins and gaining the favor of major customers. Simultaneously, AMD continues to challenge Intel's dominance in the CPU market for PCs and servers, illustrating a multi-faceted approach to market share expansion.
Investor Sentiment and Technical Analysis:
Investors are increasingly bullish on NASDAQ:AMD , drawn by its strategic positioning in the high-performance semiconductor space. The introduction of a chip challenging Nvidia's stronghold and improvements in NASDAQ:AMD 's AI software contribute to the positive sentiment. From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:AMD 's stock is in a rising trend channel, indicating sustained positive development and growing investor interest.
Conclusion:
As the demand for high-performance semiconductors, driven by AI applications, continues to grow, NASDAQ:AMD stands out as a compelling investment. The partnership with TSMC, strategic focus on GPU and CPU advancements, and positive technical trends position AMD as a formidable contender in the semiconductor industry. Investors eyeing long-term growth and exposure to the AI wave may find AMD to be a sensible addition to their portfolios, with the potential for further gains in the evolving landscape of high-performance computing.
AMD Surges as AI Optimism Fuels Stock Rallysemiconductor giant Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is experiencing a significant surge in its stock value, driven by growing optimism in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Analysts are revising their price targets upward, reflecting a bullish outlook on AMD's future prospects. This surge is part of a broader trend in the industry, where companies are strategically positioning themselves to capitalize on the burgeoning AI market.
Key Catalysts:
1. Barclays' Bullish Stance: Barclays has named NASDAQ:AMD a "Top Pick" for the "2nd Wave of AI," boosting investor confidence. The investment bank raised its price target for NASDAQ:AMD shares from $120 to an impressive $200, suggesting a more than 30% premium compared to the stock's trading levels at the time of the upgrade. This move follows Barclays' observation that 2024 is poised to be a pivotal year for AI, with chipmakers like NASDAQ:AMD gaining market share.
2. Supply Chain Dynamics: With supply constraints impacting the industry, customers are reportedly opting for NVIDIA's entire platform to secure priority shipments of accelerators. This scenario has inadvertently benefited NASDAQ:AMD , contributing to a notable 7.5% surge in its stock price to $157.57, reaching its highest level in more than two years.
3. AI Market Expansion: As the AI market continues to expand, NASDAQ:AMD is strategically positioning itself to challenge NVIDIA's dominance in the sector. In response to tightened U.S. export rules, NVIDIA plans to commence mass production of an AI chip designed for its Chinese customers later this year. Meanwhile, in December, NASDAQ:AMD announced two new AI data center chips, signaling its commitment to competing with NVIDIA's flagship microprocessors.
Analyst Perspectives:
Analysts from KeyBanc have also revised their price targets, with NASDAQ:AMD receiving an increase to $195 from $170. NVIDIA's price target has been raised to $740 from $650 by the same analysts. These adjustments reflect a positive sentiment towards both companies, positioning them as attractive investment opportunities. The industry-wide PHLX semiconductor index is up 1.15%, further emphasizing the positive momentum in the semiconductor sector.
Market Reflection:
The market's response to these developments is characterized by the notable volatility in NASDAQ:AMD 's shares, with 22 moves greater than 5% over the past year. However, today's 5.8% jump suggests that while the news is deemed meaningful, it may not fundamentally alter the market's perception of $AMD. The company's shares have experienced significant moves in recent weeks, notably gaining 5.2% just eight days ago, indicating a dynamic market environment.
AMD's Strategic Moves:
NASDAQ:AMD 's recent announcement of the Radeon RX 7600 XT graphics card ahead of CES 2024 adds another layer to its strategic positioning. The graphics card, equipped with features like AMD FidelityFX Super Resolution and HYPR-RX, aims to provide seamless gaming experiences and cater to content creators, enhancing productivity and quality.
Conclusion:
In a landscape where AI-powered technologies are gaining prominence, NASDAQ:AMD 's strategic moves and the bullish outlook from analysts signal a compelling narrative for investors. The company's ability to navigate supply chain challenges, coupled with its advancements in AI-centric offerings, positions it as a key player in the evolving semiconductor industry. As the market continues to recognize NASDAQ:AMD 's potential, investors may find this juncture an opportune moment to delve into the promising prospects that the company presents.
AMD Correction expected on this Double Top.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has given excellent pull-back buy opportunities since our last analysis (December 12 2023, see chart below):
We believe though that it is time to take profit on those buy positions as the short-term Channel Up has made a Double Top similar to the June 13 2023 pattern, which started a prolonged correction. Even though the new correction doesn't have to be that long, even a shorter one is plausible as the same 1D RSI Bearish Divergence (on Lower Highs) that we currently have, was seen on all corrections within the 18-month Channel Up, with the shortest of them being -15%.
Assuming this worst case scenario, we turn now bearish and target 129.00 (-15% from the Top). Then as long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) holds, or even if broken when it gets reclaimed, we will buy again for the long-term.
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AMD - Approaching All Time HighsHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of AMD.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After the massive breakout in 2016 we saw a rally of more than 4.500% on AMD. This rally was perfectly followed by a correction of 70% in 2022. As mentioned in my analysis, I am now waiting for a retracement back to the previous structure and if we have enough bullish confirmation, I will then look for potential trading opportunities.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
AMD laying path to the All Time High.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) hit our 133.15 target that we called for a month ago (see chart below):
The price is now extending the rise within the multi-month Channel Up, approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci Channel level. This is where the March 23 High was made with the rejection that followed, approaching the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as the short-term Channel Up (as you see it is a very common pattern within the wider structure) holds, we will be bullish, targeting 160.00 (Fibonacci 0.786 and close to the All Time High). If the short-term Channel Up breaks, we will sell and target the 0.236 Fibonacci and 1D MA200 at 110.00 (or if contact is made higher, then close on that price).
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Can Nvidia Be Knocked Off The AI Top Spot?AMD's recent launch of the Instinct MI300X AI chip marks a significant entry into the AI chip market, challenging Nvidia's dominance. Supported by Microsoft and Meta, this innovative chip positions AMD as a strong competitor in the sector. Analysts predict AMD could capture about 10% of the AI chip market, a notable achievement considering Nvidia's current market stronghold.
Following the announcement, AMD's stock witnessed a nearly 10% surge, indicating strong investor confidence in the new product's market potential. In contrast, Nvidia saw a modest 2.4% increase in its shares. Despite this, Nvidia has experienced a substantial 2.15% increase in its stock value over the past year, showcasing its robust market presence.
AMD's ambitious goal to achieve $2 billion in AI GPU sales by 2024 underlines their commitment to the Instinct MI300X's success. Meanwhile, Nvidia, currently in a consolidation phase, fluctuates between support and resistance levels of $400 and $500, respectively.
The introduction of the Instinct MI300X by AMD heralds a new era in the AI chip market, setting the stage for an intense competition between these tech giants.
AMD Surges After Launching AI chip that Could Challenge NvidiaAMD unveiled its MI300X chip, an AI-centered semiconductor designed to challenge Nvidia's global market dominance.
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) shares jumped in early Thursday trading after the semiconductor group unveiled an AI-focused chip for the data-center market, which it says could be valued at as much as $45 billion over the coming years.
AMD, which in June pegged the total addressable market for data-center chips at around $30 billion, launched the MI300X chip, designed to support generative-artificial-intelligence technologies. And it unveiled a next-generation semiconductor focused on supercomputing, the Instinct M1300A.
The MI300X, analysts say, could challenge Nvidia's NVDA dominant H100 graphics-processing-unit chip in the large-language-model AI market. Last month, AMD said the new chip could generate $400 million in fourth-quarter sales while the broader family of MI300 semis are expected to see sales of more than $2 billion over the whole of 2024.
Large language models "continue to increase in size and complexity, requiring massive amounts of memory and compute,” CEO Lisa Su said during last night's launch event at the company's Santa Clara, Calif., headquarters. “And we know the availability of GPUs is the single most important driver of AI adoption.”
Advanced Micro Devices shares were marked 2% higher in premarket trading to indicate an opening bell price of $119.12 each. Such a move would nudge the stock into positive territory for the past six months.
AMD last forecast fourth-quarter sales in the region of $6.1 billion, plus or minus $300 million, with gross margins of around 51.5%. That outlook following a mixed third-quarter-earnings report that showed big gains in PC revenue had partly offset the ongoing decline in gaming.
"While AMD acknowledged that its software can be further improved, it has reached the point of being 'good enough' for volume deployment," said KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh. He reiterated his overweight rating on the stock following last night's launch event.
"We're encouraged that AMD has released a competitive AI GPU within a massively fast-growing (total addressable market), with endorsements by many high-profile customers," he added.
Technical Analysis
The RSI (14) is at 56.52, indicating a bullish momentum. The MACD (12,26) is at 0.68, suggesting a positive trend. AMD is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc (NASDAQ:AMD) Soaring As Market GainsAMD made significant revenue and unit share gains in the server, laptop, and desktop PC markets during the last quarter. Year-over-year, AMD gained 5.8% unit share in desktop PCs, 3.8% in mobile, and 5.8% in servers. Looking at the percentage of the cash AMD gained compared to its rivals (revenue share) year-over-year, AMD gained 4.1% in desktops, 5.1% in notebooks, and 1.7% in servers.
The preceding quarters were challenging both for the consumer PC and server markets as chipmakers and their clients tried to normalize inventory levels and align supply and demand. The situation has largely normalized for the two major CPU suppliers — AMD and Intel — in the third quarter as PC makers started to purchase processors for back-to-school and holiday seasons, whereas server makers ramped up production of machines based on the latest EPYC and Xeon platforms. Overall, AMD was luckier than Intel in Q3 2023 as it gained share, according to Mercury Research.
As it turns out, AMD has gained client and server CPU market share both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in the third quarter of 2023, based on data from Mercury Research. The data does not include numbers for Intel and Arm, though, given the dominance of AMD and Intel in client PCs, we can guess that AMD's gains were at Intel's expense.
Technical Analysist
Price Momentum
AMD is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.