ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES - Ready for a reversal?NASDAQ:AMD is retesting a significant horizontal structure and we might see a bullish reversal soon, considering that AMD already created a correction of -45% over the past couple of months.
Click chart above to see detailed analysis
AMD is clearly one of these "AI" hype stocks which is now coming back to normal levels after also NVIDIA and other tech stocks are correcting a bit. AMD has been trading in a rising channel formation since the "Covid" crash back in 2020. With the recent break and retest, we could definitely see a bullish reversal soon.
Levels to watch: $120
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Advancedmicrodevices
AMD Final Flush completed. Next High above $300.The Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have most likely bottomed on this week's 1W candle as after breaking last week below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), their earnings report last night came out better than expected and the opening is expected considerably higher.
Technically, the stock has almost touched the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Up that started on August 01 2022. This can be a similar Higher Low to the last one on the week of October 23 2023. As you can see, that Low was priced while the 1W CCI was Oversold (below -100.00), similar to today. The Channel's first Low was again on an oversold 1W CCI on the week of October 10 2022.
As the same time, we are as close to the bottom of the Sine Wave as possible, which again, as you see, has marked the last two Higher Lows of the long-term Channel Up.
We don't expect any more divergencies from what a typical Channel Up would suggest, and that is the start of a new Bullish Leg, its 3rd so far. If the next Higher High is exactly at the top of the Sine Wave, then we can expect it in early January 2025. The previous two Higher Highs were priced after +144% rallies from the Lows, so it is possible to see $345.00 if this symmetry continues to hold. A 300 - 320 Target Zone though is in our view more suited for a Higher High.
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AMD Advanced Micro Devices Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AMD before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AMD Advanced Micro Devices prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $13.90.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
AMD - Correction of -40% over?NASDAQ:AMD just created a new all time high, however we have to be quite careful now.
Volatility is the basis of every major trading position and trading profit. Advanced Micro Devices is just such a stock which offers volatile swings every now and then. Currently Advanced Micro Devices is retesting the previous all time high which is now acting as support. I do expect a move higher but there is simply no good risk to reward setup at the current levels.
Levels to watch: $155, $110
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
AMD a great stock to have in your portfolio to the end of yearLast time we looked at the Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), we made a short-term call (June 20, see chart below) at the bottom of the Bull Flag, with the price responding flawlessly, and is currently on its way for a Higher High on our $190.0 Target:
Before that, it was on May 15 (see chart below) where we called for a buy exactly at the bottom of the cyclical correction/ Bearish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up:
Just a quick reminder, it was back in March when we waved the strongest 1W sell signal on AMD and it surgically delivered (chart below):
In any event, back to today, the price has just broken above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and established the last two trading sessions there. With the 1D RSI approaching the 70.00 overboughr barrier, we are on the exact same level that AMD was during both previous Bullish Legs (circle).
This suggests that we are only at the very start of the new Bullish Leg and based on the Sine Waves, it should start peaking end of December - start of January 2025. We are moving our long-term Target higher to $320.00.
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As you see, we couldn't have gotten a more efficient long-term buy entry than that and the stock has basically confirmed the start of the new uptrend/ Bullish Leg
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AMD broke above the 3-week Bull Flag. Major buy signal!On March 13 (see chart below) we issued a major sell signal on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), as we saw the stock topping at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 2-year Channel Up:
Our projection was materialized as the price corrected significantly by -37% and has almost reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was the level that held, formed the latest Higher Low of the Channel Up and made us give a new long-term buy signal a month ago (while also the 1W RSI reached the symmetrical Support level of the October 2023 bottom (45.50)).
Today the buy sentiment got stronger than ever as AMD not only broke above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) but also above the giant Bull Flag pattern that started on the May 28 High. With the 1D MACD about to form a Bullish Cross, a very strong long-term buy signal emerges that call for a new Bullish Leg similar to at least the May 02 - 28 one.
If the prevailing structure is a Channel Up then expect a +23.65% rise, which puts our Target at $190.00 (just below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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AMD Investigating Potential Data Breach by Hacking GroupChipmaker AMD is facing a potential data security breach after a hacking group known as IntelBroker claimed to have stolen sensitive information. This information allegedly includes details on upcoming AMD products, customer databases, and internal documents. While leaked screenshots provide some evidence of a compromise, AMD is working with law enforcement to determine the full scope of the breach and mitigate any potential damage.
Investor Jitters and Competitive Risks: The news caused a slight dip in AMD's stock price as investors grappled with the potential consequences. If confirmed, the stolen data could significantly impact AMD's competitive edge, especially if information about future product lines and proprietary technologies is compromised. This wouldn't be the first time AMD has faced such a challenge – the company previously dealt with a data breach in 2022.
Cybersecurity Concerns in the Tech Sector: This incident underscores the escalating threat of cyberattacks within the technology industry. With a reported 78% increase in data breaches from 2022 to 2023, the need for robust cybersecurity strategies and vigilant monitoring is paramount.
Beyond AMD: Broader Implications: The potential breach highlights the far-reaching effects of cyberattacks. Stolen data sold on the dark web can be used for various malicious purposes, impacting not only the targeted company but also its partners, customers, and the entire industry.
Looking Forward: Lessons from the Investigation: As AMD investigates the claims, the outcome will be closely watched not just for its impact on the company's future but also for the broader lessons it offers in the ongoing fight against cybercrime. This incident serves as a stark reminder for all companies to remain proactive and continuously strengthen their cybersecurity defenses against increasingly sophisticated threats.
AMD - Trading opportunity is almost there!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at AMD .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
The stock chart of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is looking quite interesting at the moment: A couple of months ago AMD broke out of a major symmetrical triangle formation, creating another rally of roughly +100%. But at the moment AMD also already corrected roughly -40% and is approaching a major confluence of support at the $125 level from which we could see another bullish reversal and rally.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
AMD Set for Major Processor Launch As it Grabs 33% of CPU MarketAdvance Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ), a leading player in the server CPU market, claims a 33% share. The company is preparing to launch its next-gen "Turin" processors and unveils a GPU roadmap following the MI300 product line. NASDAQ:AMD 's CFO, Jean Hu, highlighted the company's growth in servers, CPUs, and GPUs, highlighting partnerships with Microsoft and strong double-digit growth in server CPUs and desktop/laptop segments.
AMD's strategic focus on power efficiency and cost-effectiveness makes it a compelling choice for enterprises facing power and space constraints. Notable clients like American Express, Shell, and STMicroelectronics are transitioning to AMD-based infrastructure. NASDAQ:AMD plans to launch a next-generation AI PC in the second half of the year, potentially refreshing the PC market. The company also sees long-term growth potential in the embedded processor market through synergies with Xilinx.
NASDAQ:AMD 's performance in the desktop and laptop markets is also highlighted. Analysts expect NASDAQ:AMD and peers to drive semiconductor industry optimism after their earnings beat, but caution against AMD's MI300 supply constraints, gaming segment weakness, and aggressive pricing from Nvidia Corp.
Technical Outlook
Advance Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) stock is up 3.43% on Tuesday's Market day trading. The stock daily price chart depicts a trend reversal from a falling wedge or bullish flag pattern.
Advance Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) stock has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 61.94 which makes it poise for further growth in the long term.
AMD correction is over. Buy for the long-term.Back on March 13 (see chart below) we gave a bold (for the majority of the market) sell signal on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), as we saw the stock topping at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of its 2-year Channel Up:
Our signal was delivered and the price corrected significantly by -37% and has almost reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was the level that held and made the last bottom and Higher Low for the Channel Up on the week of October 23 2023.
As the 1W RSI also reached the symmetrical Support level of the October 2023 bottom (45.50), we believe that the market has already started the bottom process and any week now will start the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
Technically the previous 2 rose by +144% but we will settle our own long-term Target a little lower at $300.00, so that it makes a standard Higher High on the Channel Up.
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AMD Advanced Micro Devices Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AMD on the strong buy rating:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AMD Advanced Micro Devices prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 170usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-5-3,
for a premium of approximately $2.39.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
AMD - Correction And LongsHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of AMD.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After the massive triangle breakout on AMD in 2016, we saw a rally of more than +7.000% towards the upside. After the recent bear market in December of 2021, where AMD perfectly retested previous structure, we saw another rally of +250%. I am now waiting for a retest of the triangle breakout level mentioned in the analysis and then I will look for even more long setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
AMD - Finally a correction?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at AMD .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2022 AMD perfectly retested the previous all time high which was turned support after AMD stock broke it towards the upside in 2020. Furthermore AMD stock also created a bullish symmetrical triangle formation and already broke out towards the upside. More often than not we will see a retest of the breakout level, potentially bullish confirmation and then the continuation towards the upside.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
AMD Strong buy on the 1day MA100.Advanced Micro Devices / AMD hit the 1day MA100 after more than 5 months and the first long term buy signal is flashing.
It has completed a -30.15% decline from the recent High, being a Higher High on a Channel Up of almost 2 years.
The last correction from June to October 2023 was exactly -30.15%.
Exploit a double entry strategy with the first buy here on the 1day MA100 and the second if it drops more to the 1day MA200.
The bottom is confirmed after the 1day RSI forms a Rising Support.
Target 260, being the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, which formed the high of June 13th 2023.
Previous chart:
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AMD: Near the 2 month Support. Strong Buy.AMD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.240, MACD = -3.040, ADX = 37.221) as it got heavily rejected on the 1D MA50 last week. Nonetheless, it is close not only to completing the -28.56% decline, which is the maximum fall it has had since the October 13th 2022 bottom, but also near the S1 level (162.00), which is February's low. The chart shows that every time AMD had dropped under the 1D MA50 while on this multi year Channel Up, it was a strong buy opportunity. Only in August it kept falling, but not aggressively until it found support on the 1W MA50.
Consequently, we treat this as a effective buy entry, aiming for a +61.60% increase at least (TP = 260.00), like the October - December 2023 rebound.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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AMD flashed the strongest 1W sell signal you can get.Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has hit the top of the Fibonacci Channel Up last week and immediately got rejected, closing the 1W candle almost flat. This is a significant 1 week turnaround, which may evolve into a bearish reversal as the 1W RSI gave the strongest sell signal possible.
That is reversing on the 82.50 (overbought) level, which since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis has always delivered a strong medium-term correction. If we focus on the last 4 years alone, we can see on the chart 4 such correction events ranging from - 21.50% to -39.50%.
As a result, we are sellers on AMD, aiming at a $180 minimum (-21.50%). If it drops more, we will wait for a more comfortable buy at $140 (-39.50%), which should potentially make contact with either the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) or the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). The latter has been a former Resistance during the Bear Cycle that turned into Support after May 2023, while the 1W MA50 has two clear bottoms that evolved into aggressive rallies since the week of May 01 2023.
Basically this signal is more useful to long-term investors for when taking profit and how to make two lower buy entries and manage the long-term risk effectively, while having a $300 long-term target.
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AMD: Start selling. Top this or the next week.Advanced Micro Devices is excessively overbought both on the 1W (RSI = 82.711) as well as on the 1D (RSI = 74.269, MACD = 10.910, ADX = 31.889) timeframe. Since the October 23 2023 Low, which was a 1W MA50 HL of the long term Channel Up, the stock price has risen by almost +130%. The previous HL-to-HH Bullish Leg made a +143.89% rise. We are very close to that level, so we expect the stock to price its new top this week or the next. In addition, the 1W CCI has been trading sideways but above the overbought limit since November, similar pattern as the sequence that led to the June 2023 peak. It is worth to start selling now, targeting close to the S1 level (TP = 165.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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AMD: When will it End?For AMD, we've continued to see this rise since our last analysis, partly due to very positive news in the market about chips, indicating that chips look very promising in the near future, as expected. AMD rose by 9% yesterday, and pre-market, it's already opening up by 3% higher. We believe that the 161% mark will be reached quite quickly. This Wave (3) could potentially be much larger than the 227.2% mark, yet we think that this range will be a good point for the next correction to occur. However, we should quickly reach this level of $216.
It's important to remember that, on a larger scale, we are also in Wave III, which should be positioned significantly higher compared to the subordinate Wave (3), which lies between $216 and can reach up to $368 maximum. That would be quite impressive, but realistically, it's likely to be between $216 and $266.
AMD Double Top formed. Time to pull-back?Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been rising non-stop before February, and gave our last solid buy on our December 12 2023 analysis (see chart below):
Since then, it formed a High (Higher High for the 1.5 year Channel Up) on January 25 2024 and Resistance 1. On Friday it touched this level again, which is so far a technical Double Top formation. As long as it holds, we expect the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) to break for the first time in 4 months (since November 01 2023) and approach the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
On top of that, the 1D RSI is on Lower Highs that broke below the Higher Lows which has been the Sell Signal during the previous three occurrences. Our target is a minimum of -19.38% decline such as on the June 26 2023 Low. If the 1D MA100 breaks, we will open another one to target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 0.382 Fibonacci Channel level at 130.00, which will represent a -29.77% drop, being the total decline on the October 26 2023 Low.
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AMD Has it finally topped? Short-term sell in order?Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has been rising non-stop giving us excellent pull-back buy opportunities since our December 12 2023 analysis (see chart below):
This time however it has gone as close to the top of the 18-month Channel Up as it has been since the beginning and is printing the same peak pattern it has formed during all previous Higher High formations. In addition, the 1D RSI is on Lower Highs that just broke below the Higher Lows and that has been the Sell Signal during the previous three occurrences.
We are targeting a minimum of -19.38% decline such as on the June 26 2023 Low. If the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) breaks, we will open another one to target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 0.382 Fibonacci Channel level at 130.00, which will represent a -29.77% drop, being the total decline on the October 26 2023 Low.
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AMD - Starting to Accumulate.AMD - Currently down 50% from ATH starting a position for long-term.
Looking to add at levels of support indicated in cyan. Big bids at 59-50 and 34-29.
Short-term trend change if yellow zone gained. Targeting orange around 100 for profit taking.
Looking for new ATH on gain of purple.
Market Top Looming For AMDRan through historical data on AMD and have quite a few signals of interest. The first event is bullish and calls for a move into the larger green box. Typically my signals come with a delay until the final movement is achieved. In this case, my Aggressive Multi-time frame indicator fired based on January 22, 2024 closing price. The signal was bullish, however, the common delay sees a retracement into the are of the pink box. Today, AMD moved down into the pink box possibly satisfying the delay prior to moving above the signal price and thus completing the signal.
Although the delay and successful signal have both occurred, the stock cannot trade straight sideways forever. The likely direction is still very bullish, even if the stock were to revisit the small pink box in the next two days. Believing the stock will continue up, the question then becomes how high?
I figure we are in the final end of an impulsive wave C. The five waves in this wave C are the larger Yellow numbers from when the wave began at the low on October 26, 2024. Yellow waves 1-4 are likely completed and we are in the final wave 5 upward now. Some of the common reversal points are highlighted with the wave extension levels on the right. 100% of wave 3's movement is at 151.05 while 200% is at 185.73. A wave 5 typically does not breach the 176.40% level therefore placing a likely top below 177.55.
This yellow wave 5 is composed of five smaller white waves, of which 1-3 are likely completed and it is unknown if wave 4 was completed today too. Wave 4 could complete if there is additional downward movement within the next two days. Once wave 4 is confirmed the final white wave 5 will coincide with the market top. The same levels are interest on the left likely indicate a top below the 114% level. A common top is normally no higher than the 106-110% mark for micro fifth waves. This would likely keep the top below 177.20.
I am not trying to find the top, but more of when the top could occur and what happens afterward. White wave 1 was five days, while wave 3 was six days. White wave 5 will likely be five days or less which is January 30. AMD reports earnings on January 30. There is a chance, either earnings, the outlook or a combination of factors do not fair well for AMD. There could be a final rally during the day on the 30th, until earnings come out after hours. AMD has debt that is due this year and the Fed's decision, but more likely its outlook on rate cuts this year could have a major impact on the refinancing of that debt. AMD could hold off on refinancing their debt if they believe cheaper rates are coming soon. If the Fed takes rate cuts off the table, do not provide a time table for cuts, or state factors enabling rate cuts are yet to be seen will force AMD to refinance their debt at higher rates. This could force them to sell stock (normally at a cheaper price), raise prices (consumers are already squeezed there) or another path not favorable to the short-term profitability.
The earnings fall out will hit the stock on January 31. The Federal Reserve provides the next decision point on January 31. There is another signal that triggered at the close on January 12th that remains unfulfilled. That bearish signal indicated the stock could fall below 146.56 before February 20, 2024 based on historical data. The actual target box for the movement is the large yellow box on the chart. Based on the 383 studied occurrences, the signal is correct 91.361% of the time. Correct in this case would require a movement below 146.56. This instance could fall into the 8+% of failure, or it could occur via a longer path. I am positing AMD could crash down into the yellow box after fulfilling all signal price targets (pink, green, and yellow boxes).
The Fed and earnings are only the beginning of the downward movement. I am still bearish on the market in the short-term (rest of 2024) even though I have called for the drop to occur in the prior months. The market is at new all-time highs, but are things really better than they were on January 3, 2022?