Bearish potential detected for AGLEntry conditions:
(i) breach of the lower confines of the Darvas box formation for ASX:AGL
- i.e.: below low of $9.84 of 7th April, and
(ii) swing increased bearishness of indicators such as DMI/RSI along with a test of prior level of support of $10.02 from 11th March.
Stop loss for the trade (based upon the Darvas box formation) would be:
(i) above the high of 10th April (i.e.: above $10.89), or
(ii) above the prior support level from the open of 10th January (i.e.: above $11.15), depending on risk tolerance.
AGL
Agilon Health (Revised) | AGL | Long at $0.76This is a revised analysis of Agilon Health NYSE:AGL as seen here:
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Full disclosure: I am a holder of shares at $2.36, $0.76, and $0.79. Last entry planned near $0.50 if it reaches that level. Current cost average is near $1.11.
Let me be clear: This is a ***highly risky*** trade given the recent news regarding the CEO, securities fraud investigation, suspension of FY guidance. Do your own due diligence.
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The link above/previous writeup details some of the basic fundamentals of Agilon Health NYSE:AGL . As predicted, the price fell below $1 after the most recent earnings call. This was due to:
Revenue down 6% to $1.4B, Medicare Advantage membership at 498,000.
CEO Steve Sell resigning, Ron Williams appointed Executive Chairman.
2025 guidance suspended due to market challenges.
New securities fraud investigations.
I think the challenges NYSE:AGL is going through will extend through 2025 in into early 2026. If you look at the healthcare sector, it has taken a beating mostly due to Medicare and Medicaid cuts / rising healthcare costs. NYSE:AGL is not profitable and wasn't expected to become profitable until 2028 - but that may get revised....
However, the company focuses on senior patients, primarily through Medicare Advantage and ACO REACH programs, targeting value-based care for older adults across 31+ communities in 12 states. The need for services targeting the Baby Boom population is going to rapidly increase in the next few years. NYSE:AGL may become a leader in this area, but the company needs to regroup and focus on a model that returns money to investors - a dirty game. So, while the near-term is doom and gloom, the future could be very, very bright with NYSE:AGL if they are able to turn things around with this new leadership shakeup. Time will tell. It's a gamble. One I am, personally, willing to take.
Revised Targets into 2028:
$1.60 (+110.5%)
$3.00 (+294.7%)
Agilon Health | AGL | Long at $2.36Reentering this trade (original: )
Agilon Health NYSE:AGL
Pros:
Revenue consistently grew from 2019 ($794 million) to 2024 ($6.06 billion). Expected to reach $9.16 billion by 2028.
Current debt-to-equity ratio 0.07 (very low)
Sufficient cash reserves to fund operations and strategic initiatives
Strong membership growth (659,000 in 2024, a 38% year-over-year increase)
Recent insider buying ($2 - $3) and awarding of options
Cons:
Rising medical costs - currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years
Medicare Advantage Membership issues with the new political administration
No dividend
It's a gamble and I think it's a possibility this could drop near $1 in the near-term due to the Medicaid changes/fear... regardless, long-term, personal buy-zone at $2.36.
Targets in 2027
$3.70 (+56.8%)
$5.25 (+122.5%)
AGL - Bowl chart with a Golden cross- AGL is in a long-term uptrend.
- AGL made a golden cross on 04.08.2025 (MA50 & MA200).
- The price chart is forming a bowl of patterns.
- Price now (05.01.2025): $3.93.
- Price target: $7.62.
If the bowl pattern fails, cut loss when the intraday price is below $3.66.
IMO, amateur trader.
AGL - Bull pending?Are there bulls lurking here ahead of potential rate cuts?
Our Bullfinder-official Team has identified a potential opportunity within ASX:AGL
If price can hold above the $10.00 mark, there may be potential for a re-rating of momentum to 'bullish'.
We would like to note however that below ~$10.00 significant bearish continuation risk comes into play.
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Agilon Health | AGL | Long at $2.24Agilon Health NYSE:AGL
Pros:
Revenue consistently grew from 2019 ($794 million) to 2023 ($4.3 billion) and through three quarters of 2024 ($5.6 billion). Expected to reach $8.7 billion by 2027.
Current debt-to-equity ratio 0.06 (very low)
Sufficient cash reserves to fund operations and strategic initiatives
Strong membership growth (525,000 as of Q3 2024, a 37% year-over-year increase)
Recent insider buying ($2 - $3) and awarding of options
Cons:
Rising medical costs - currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years
No dividend
Targets (into 2027):
$2.72
$4.00
$5.00
$7.00
$11.50
$16.00
ASX: AGL Fibonacci retracements
ASX:AGL AGL Energy is have been underperforming for long time , now for one year return is just 3.16%
Look the chart and notice
- double bottom formation on weekly chart
- higher high higher low formation
- no supply
- stock also above the key level of fib levels
disc: invested and tracking
AGL Demerger or Bullet dodging?Good Day Ladies and Gentlemen,
This one goes out to the average retail trying to make sense of this crazy market. In no way is this chart supposed to fearmonger, however it is important to truly understand not only are you investing in a company when you buy shares you are also investing in the crew that runs it.
Its not hard to believe so many investors are wondering what the hell is going on with AGL and how the (incompetent) poorly run 20 year old giant could be put in such a position. Its as if the company has done everything wrong for the past 3 years.. which makes you wonder was it on purpose?
The executive board are pushing hard for a demerger, but why?
With large liquidity pools at 17-20 dollars (that will at some point need to be filled) as a result of price being heavily shorted taking over 70% of retail money (talk about greedy) its no wonder people are asking questions. What are the intentions of the demerger which have been seemly announced at almost to convenient of times. Are they burying the evidence?
Take a look at the chart and tell me what you think?
AGL - Trade PlanAGL looks like it has broken out of its long term downtrend and is expected to head higher. The break of the Bearish trendline coupled with High Volume and huge MACD Bullish Divergence confirms that it is expected to move higher. I am bullish AGL with a target of $10.70 and it may even go much higher towards the strong Resistance level of $12.00.
Please note these are my own notes, by no means trading advice. Please do your own research before entering into any trade.
AGL - UpdateG'day Ladies and Gentlemen,
AGL - Has confirmed a further target breaking with the breaking of the lows. If the bears can hit their targets I would expect a bottom to form somewhere in the buy zone. If that is the case the targets have been listed on the chart.
Remember AGL is in a bear market. Which means the trend can continue for as long as the market makers wants. That being said I do believe the bottom is close (Temporary Bottom).
Give me a follow and a like and I will supply you with more money. and comment on what TA you want to see next.