Wheat - ZW | Long IdeaHere I lay out my trade idea for Wheat.
Given Global Macro events, technical patterns and indicators, I see a long here.
3:1 RR
1% Risked.
Let's see where this goes!
Agricultural Commodities
ZC1!10.29.22 The chart is framed for a long trade in coffee. I will be looking for evidence of BUYERS On Monday. I discussed the details here.
Friday Notes - SPX USOIL GOLD DXY WHEAT BTC TLRYEverything in the video I also talk a bit about market psychology and why it's problematic to think the "news" is the cause of price movement.
Wednesday is decision day - spx bonds wheat gold dxy btcSPX is bullish over 3750, bonds I can't tell what is going on there but under 125 would be bad for bulls, Wheat, looks good still in channel, Gold also looks good although the dollar may rally again to 116, BTC could drop hard but it would be a buy for me. GOod luck
Wednesday notes - SPX Wheat Gold DXY DAX Bonds etc.Some pre market commentary, SPX - expecting a bear trap after open, then higher. Wheat may be affected by the hurricane in Florida, Bonds hit an important fib extension, Gold looks promising if it can get over 1675 resistance, DXY also looks like it may pullback - BTC could still move to lower 18000 area before a move up (would align with one more low in equities) but it doesn't have to go down that far. Dax has broken monthly trendline, expect a retest over the coming weeks.
I forgot oil - looks good for a strong bounce here, pullbacks are likely bought.
OK good luck!
the FOMC idea - SPX, BONDS, WHEAT, GOLD, DXY, BTCFomc is at 2pm today. Many are expecting a rally, and that could be - but be careful of a pump and dump. Another option is it just dumps to 3700 quickly which for me would be a buy zome. Bonds may be close to a turn and Powell may signal something dovish to that market today, Wheat looks good and now we are expecting pullbacks to be bought, Gold also looks good for a rally and DXY looks ready to pullback soon. BTC also holding support at that 19k level.
Good luck!
Coffee part 29. 20. 22 As promised, this is part two of coffee. I would suggest that you spend some time mermaids 2 videos. did you do the work they should have some value. These are highly repeatable Patterns, and they should be thought of taking into account probability and risk. You would think that if a market opens on Monday and makes a new low...the market will probably move lower. However, you would be wrong, and you are subjecting yourself to a losing trade or a missed opportunity to go long Because you didn't factor in the importance obstruction, and the importance of buyers at that level. Everything is about probability, and your ability to factor in more than the most simplistic analysis. It can be done.
Market ideas for Friday - SPY, GOLD, USOIL BTC DXY WHEATOK so yesterday was not my best day. There are still some signs of a reversal possible but unless spy gets over 390 in the next day or two, all rallies will be suspect. USOIL looks like a correction is over and we should go higher, Wheat correction is normal for the first leg up, it could test 8.14-8.00. Gold spiked through support but it doesn't mean anything just yet, esp if the dollar reverses soon. BTC holding it's support at 19500, under 19k would be problematic. Thanks very much for listening and good luck!
The Monday Notes - SPX500 USOIL Wheat Gold DXY BTCAll in the video, expecting a pullback but how much is hard to say if it's a B wave. Logic tells me to feed the bears just enough before they take away the plate, but we'll have to see how CPI is reacted to tomorrow. Oil looks very good for a move above 100 still, Wheat could still be a Flat completing, but I'm not concerned about a pullback if it does. Gold, looks good for more upside after a pullback and the Dollar looks good for a bounce and then more downside. BTC should follow the markets, target of 22500 is close, they may pullback before it gets hit. Good luck to all.
Market update Friday - SPX500 USOIL WHEAT GOLD BTC All in the video - SPX looks toppy around 4080, USOIL looks bullish for a move over 100 over the coming weeks, Wheat has two possibilities, but ultimately I think it's bullish either way. Gold one more low possible but GDX is leading upwards as of now. BTC nice but rsi is over stretched, needs a pullback.
The Powell pop - SPY OIL WHEAT GOLD DXY BTCUnexpected rally on Spy to 413 looks possible for next week. All the usual markets are covered. Wheat is still good but it's been a tough trade. Oil probably to 92 but it's possible one more low to 78-79 could happen first. Gold and metals I think continue the rally as DXY pulls back more. BTC same. Good luck!
Update on the usual supects - SPX 500 OIL Wheat Gold DXY BTCI forgot bonds, will update if I need to- they still are sucking as of now. SP500 looks like it wants to rally, a hold over 3930 hourly chart would be a long. If we have one more down it will likely be the bottom for a few weeks. Oil could drop to 80 before a bounce. Wheat has a breakout and people are starting to pay attention to it. Gold looks ok and may be in the process of making a Wykoff topping structure. DXY likely pullback here now that all the cheerleaders are on the field. BTC rally to 22500 and if more, 28-29k. Good luck!
Fall trading has begun - SPX 500 USOIL BONDS WHEAT BTC DXY GOLDALl in the video, still bullish on the stock market, but a small sell off first would be appropriate to trap shorts. OIl looks like 92 target should come sooner rather than later. Bonds still under the channel. Wheat still looks great. Gold looks promising and the US dollar likely pulls back to help it. BTC hard to tell but I would think higher after a small sell off.
Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates.
While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity.
Background on edible commodities:
Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat.
An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil.
In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food.
Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates.
Content:
. Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates?
. Technical studies
. How to hedge or buy them?
Rice Market:
91 Metric Tons
$0.005 = US$10
Example -
$0.01 = US$20
$18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000
From $18 to $19 = US$10,000
If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
That Friday Bounce - SPY, OIL, BONDS, Wheat, SILVER, USD, BTC OK a nice bounce into the daily MA cluster. I do think we get choppy over the next few weeks, so expect a lot of up and down and take profits when you get them. SPX may pullback early next week only to rally into the end of the week. Oil similar choppy movies to 92 and maybe 95 later in September. Wheat tested it's channel and so far has pulled away nicely. Gold and SIlver look promising and the US Dollar may pullback hard helping the metals in general. BTC looks choppy and probably makes one more leg down into Labor day. Good luck and enjoy some time off.
KCZ2022 ES1!8.29.22 Today's review a coffee and the ES. I think you need to be very careful with coffee which can definitely have great move and is volatile enough to be a market you want to follow. The ES had a great reversal lower, and seems to be developing a trending swing lower. however, it came to support and may trade higher for a period of time. I think it will eventually find sellers and I want to show you how I might use my tools, and how I think the market might trade.... and even be profitable for buyers and sellers the scalp.
Head & Shoulders Top in December 2022 Wheat?Paul Wankmueller CMT of Blue Line Futures sees a Head and Shoulders Top in December 2022 CBOT Wheat. Feel free to reach out with any Technical Analysis Questions!
Today Wheat broke through the neckline of a Head & Shoulders top with conviction, confirming the pattern. Using the distance between the neckline and the top of the head, the continuation can conclude at the previous resistance.
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
WHITE SUGAR CASH CFD SETUP IDEAWeek setup: Bearish Engulfing bar
Day signal: Retest of Hidden Head & Shoulders neckline.
4HR Signal: Retest of Head & Shoulders neckline + Double Tops downtrend.
1HR Signal: Retest of Double Top downtrend neckline.
IDEA: A strong daily close of price below $549 would suggest a more bearish sentiment.
July 22' Sugar Futures Fibonacci Retracement Technical AnalysisDrawing a Fibonacci Retracement from the low of 17.36 made on Feb 3, to the high of 20.46 made on April 13, we have retraced 61.8% of the up move. 18.54 is that level, which was also the low of the day yesterday, May 4, 2022.
This is the line in the sand for bulls, but considering it held, and we are about to poke our head out above the Ichimoku Cloud, the odds are in their favor. 18.44 was the low of the day Mar 16, and a close below this level can take the market south to the ~18.00 level. Longs have a good risk/reward trade here, with stop levels positioned below 18.44.
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat back at Key $1000 levelWheat has been the most volatile commodity since the war started and we have fallen back to $1000 as peace talks improved.
Similar to Oil though peace will not fix the supply/demand issues with Ukraine and Russia accounting for 30% of wheat exports.
The consolidation period is likely over and if we can get some positive price action more buyers are likely to come back to a very tight supply market.
A close below $1000 would hurt bullish sentiment.
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Famine and food shortages. How do we invest? RJA and RJIFamine and Food Shortages are the talk over the last month as Russia invades Ukraine. How are we playing this? Where can people look to hedge inflation and war? Here are two simple methods we take a look at to play commodities and agricultural commodities. RJA and RJI by Jim Rogers we believe will continue to rise due to inflation and war. A little fast recently due to war but we expect more corn, wheat, oil, and safflower oil shortages in the next year or two simply based on this war. These commodities will and some are, being used as weapons at this point. I would ask myself, what's more important? Access to a world financial system that I can work around or food for my citizens? I would go with the latter as those with real "stuff" usually have the upper hand. I am not allowed to advertise other social media on TradingView but I can say there is a longer version and more detail out there.
Watch, like, share, comment.
Seasonal Futures Market Patterns Corn SoybeansSeasonal Futures Market Patterns Corn Soybeans
Hey traders today I wanted to go over the best Seasonal Patterns in the Corn & Soybeans Futures Market. Corn and Soybeans and other grain markets follow an annual reliable seasonal pattern revolving around supply demand planting cycles. Knowing when to find these seasonal market patterns on your charts can really benefit us in our trading of Corn and Soybeans.
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
Wheat: Is the bull market over?Hello and Welcome,
We expect wave (3) to end at 1157.6 which at this level wave (3) will equal 3.618 multiply of wave (1).
