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Agricultural Commodities

The Monday Notes - SPX500 USOIL Wheat Gold DXY BTCAll in the video, expecting a pullback but how much is hard to say if it's a B wave. Logic tells me to feed the bears just enough before they take away the plate, but we'll have to see how CPI is reacted to tomorrow. Oil looks very good for a move above 100 still, Wheat could still be a Flat completing, but I'm not concerned about a pullback if it does. Gold, looks good for more upside after a pullback and the Dollar looks good for a bounce and then more downside. BTC should follow the markets, target of 22500 is close, they may pullback before it gets hit. Good luck to all.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by the_sunship
2
Something is happening with Wheat futuresWheat got nuked in late May, as it re-tested the high. It did a full retrace, -36%. Impressive even for meme stocks let alone one of the most precious commodities on the planet. Wheat has spent Jul and Aug in the area of intense demand, which just happens to be around EMA(100) , from what I can see everyone is waiting for first harvest numbers to start sending futures higher. I'm expecting explosive few weeks, perhaps even hitting $12 again before the first snows in the northern hemisphere. The monthly chart is even more explicit:
OANDA:WHEATUSDLong
by Owcheew8
Update on the usual supects - SPX 500 OIL Wheat Gold DXY BTCI forgot bonds, will update if I need to- they still are sucking as of now. SP500 looks like it wants to rally, a hold over 3930 hourly chart would be a long. If we have one more down it will likely be the bottom for a few weeks. Oil could drop to 80 before a bounce. Wheat has a breakout and people are starting to pay attention to it. Gold looks ok and may be in the process of making a Wykoff topping structure. DXY likely pullback here now that all the cheerleaders are on the field. BTC rally to 22500 and if more, 28-29k. Good luck!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by the_sunship
1
Wheat Futures - ZW - Like Snakes in a CanSnakes in a can is not a great metaphor for food. Nonetheless, that's the pattern that seems to be developing on wheat futures. All know that the world's food crops are not in good shape. Massive drought tends to kill plants, which ruins harvests, which causes some obvious downside effects in economies. Each year in recent years, we're running out of supply until the next year's harvest arrives, which replenishes the silos, which means that you won't really feel the pain of a bad harvest until the following year. Yay for 2022, not so yay for 2023. 2024 is a dark horizon. On the monthly chart, Wheat ZW swept out the long-term 2008 high in March on the back of the Russian Federation invading Ukraine: It only swept the high, however, and has since corrected, hard. It's specifically notable that despite the massive dump, wheat did not take out the January pivot in either July, or in August's very gentle stop raid. In fact, wheat has spent the better part of two months ranging in this accumulation area, which is bad news for bears and good news for bulls. It's also notable that corn has already had a significant breakout that took out a previous month's high: Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a Turbo (Too bad I had my compass on backwards for that one and picked that it would go down before it would go up, when it just went up in a straight line. But hey, at least I drew my box in the right place -_-) Contracts of similar category tend to move in the same direction, but at different times, of each other. To be frank, I believe that this means wheat is all but guaranteed to set all new highs. However, it's a question of when. In reality, price is the easy part and time is the hard part. When it comes to "when," at least right now, you can tell from the pattern post-stop raid that we're ready to go somewhere, and that somewhere is probably up. In terms of between now and the end of September, I think that the most realistic targets are July's equal highs at ~845 and July's monthly high at ~940. I believe that a major commodities supercycle lies ahead. Something that will really be fun to trade but painful for reality. But I also believe that a big shakeout is imminent before we go there. For wheat, based on how its traded, this may mean it provides something of a shelter or a safe haven, running bull while many other things correct and dump. As the world gets crazy, keep in mind that no matter how the media and the government howls its narrative, the human race is still ultimately on a planet that orbits a sun and is positioned inside of a very, very, very immense Universe. The more immense the Universe, the less possible it is that we are either the only lives that exist or the highest lives that exist. That is how statistics and probabilities works. And I am not talking about such and such idea of aliens. I am talking about the idea of "Gods," which I do not regard as limited to the Marxist-smeared religious dogma of a giant old white man wearing a robe in the sky judging you when you swear or drink. Instead, to speak of Gods is to simply have a rational understanding about the structure of the Cosmos, its multitudinous dimensions, and those higher lives with power that occupy those dimensions and oversee this human stage during the end of a Cosmic Era. What I am getting at with the above, is that no matter how "chaotic" things get, the chaos is actually a manifest form of order. Things are happening for a reason, are planned both above and below in advance, and no matter how the Earth capsizes and the Sky falls, the tribulation provides an opportunity. The Divine is ultimately in control of where we are headed, and for good people, there is hope. So make sure you maintain your kindness, your conscience, your sense of justice, and your rationality. Do your best, and don't lose heart. In history, humanity's catastrophes, such as famines, have always had a target, and the target has almost never been people who are virtuous and are walking on the traditional path.
CBOT:ZW1!
by LordWrymouth
2
Corn Futures ZC1 - Spooling Like a TurboBecause virtually the whole world is suffering from massive drought this summer, many crops are in bad shape. This is true with the U.S. cotton crop and it's also true with the U.S. corn crop, which according to USDA reports, barely half of is in good or excellent condition as of last week. This is significant because the U.S. is the largest global producer of both, and by a huge margin. This gives good cause to believe that a pump is on the horizon, but when, and how easily will it arrive? The good news is for latecomers is that it seems as if the Ukraine panic pump and dump from April+ bottomed out in July, based on recent price action. "The second mouse gets the cheese." There's a big gap on corn and wheat remaining from the June doom candle, which should transpire as a range that gets eaten into as we head into later September and October. Winter may very well be new all time highs, because the world and humanity is in a lot of trouble. The environment is not in good shape, but to understand what this really means, you have to throw away the leftist-socialist-establishment "carbon" narratives, because those things are not only distractions, but they exist as a Communist Party pretext to take away your Freedom of Movement. But just look at the lack of water and functioning ecosystem and ask yourself how long the happy is going to remain in North America. The situation in Europe is already very dangerous. Regardless, with the way price action has traded this month, it seems likely that corn futures has a good shot of breaking July's high before the end of the month. But it also looks like it may not run in a straight line up and take care of that business on Monday or Tuesday. If you get a retrace into the 597 range, it seems there's a functional trade. However, it's entirely possible that August fails to break July's high. But if you can get out over 640 all the same before the month closes, you'll have done pretty well. As for the rest of that gap above, I don't think we see that until the next commodities supercycle starts, likely beginning to ramp in late September-October. Today is like a turbocharger. They all take a bit to spool. But once they do, it's really fun. Unless you're the one standing in front of the Ferrari.
CBOT:ZC1!
by LordWrymouth
4
Why Rice Prices Determine the Direction of Interest Rates?Recently, I received questions asking my opinion on their borrowing cost, if they should go for fixed or float rates. We somehow know there is inflation, but not exactly sure how long it will last and how bad it will get. Because higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. While I cannot advise them as I do not have a banking license to do so. However, I can point them to the commodity markets, I hope by doing so, it can help them to understand and read into the direction of interest rates with greater clarity. Background on edible commodities: Rice is a staple in the diets of more than half of the world’s population, especially in Latin America, Asia, and the Middle East. Annual production of milled rice tops 480 million metric tons, which makes it the third most-produced grain in the world after corn and wheat. An increase in rice prices or edible commodities, it will really add pressure to the existing global inflationary pressure. Hardship will be more intense especially compare to other commodities like crude oil. In short, people can still live with some inconvenience without cars, but not without food. Therefore, when food prices become much more expensive, the central banks immediate and urgent measures is to counter it by rising interest rates. Content: . Why edible commodities determine the direction of interest rates? . Technical studies . How to hedge or buy them? Rice Market: 91 Metric Tons $0.005 = US$10 Example - $0.01 = US$20 $18.00 = 1800 x US$20 = US$18,000 From $18 to $19 = US$10,000 If you are trading this market for the short-term, do remember to use live data than delay ones. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CBOT:ZR1!Education
by konhow
Shree Renuka Sugars - 240 MinsThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: its my view only and its for educational purpose only. only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. we anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive moves). Just ride the bullish or bearish impulsive move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. buy low and sell high concept. buy at cheaper price and sell at expensive price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support....
BSE:RENUKALong
by Tradelikemee
That Friday Bounce - SPY, OIL, BONDS, Wheat, SILVER, USD, BTC OK a nice bounce into the daily MA cluster. I do think we get choppy over the next few weeks, so expect a lot of up and down and take profits when you get them. SPX may pullback early next week only to rally into the end of the week. Oil similar choppy movies to 92 and maybe 95 later in September. Wheat tested it's channel and so far has pulled away nicely. Gold and SIlver look promising and the US Dollar may pullback hard helping the metals in general. BTC looks choppy and probably makes one more leg down into Labor day. Good luck and enjoy some time off.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by the_sunship
Cocoa Cacao #CC1!#Cocoa can’t seem to take a clear heading, the august attempt failed. USD keeps consolidating (@109) harming commodities such as cocoa. On a technical view: cc tried for a run above 2400 on the 22nd of August, but this push was cut short by negative world news from higher inflation, more worries from China, Europe, and mostly the energy crisis that will seem to obliterate the european market if leaders don’t find a solution to their problems. The EU is facing an increase of up 500% over their utility bill and that will convert many businesses to bankruptcy. Chocolate will most probably be less consumed in this third and fourth quarter as Europe digs its way out of the energy crisis. On the positive note, CC managed to hold above 2300, on its 12 months support. If it is tested again then I fear the next support is 2150. At 2150 it enters what I call the green zone where it becomes attractive to get back in. Nevertheless CC is still very far from its 50 day MA, 140 points on the weekly graph. There are some signs of improvements on the MACD indicator holding a positive trend since 22/08. On the longer term graph, it is still far from showing a change from a downtrend. As we approach the end of year, which usually denotes higher consumption for chocolates, I am hoping to see a reversal of trend by seasonality effect. Macro events will definitely take over any micro trends possibilities. **** Cacao parece no tomar rumbo, el intento de inicios de agosto fracasó. USD sigue consolidándose (@ 109) perjudicando materias primas como el cacao. Desde un punto de vista técnico: #CC intentó romper por encima de 2400 el 22 de agosto, pero este impulso se vio interrumpido por noticias mundiales negativas de mayor inflación, más preocupaciones desde China, Europa y, sobre todo, la crisis energética q asombra europa si los líderes no encuentran solución a sus problemas. La UE se enfrenta a un aumento de hasta 500 % en su factura de electricidad y eso llevará muchas empresas a la quiebra. Lo más probable es que el chocolate se consuma menos en este tercer y cuarto trimestre a medida que Europa se abre camino para salir de la crisis energética. En la nota positiva, CC logró mantenerse por encima de 2300, el soporte de los últimos 12 meses. Si prueba nuevamente, temo que el próximo soporte es 2150. En 2150 ingresa a lo que llamo la zona verde donde se vuelve atractivo ingresar para especuladores. Sin embargo, CC aún está muy lejos de su Media Móvil de 50 días, 140 puntos del gráfico semanal. Hay algunas señales de mejora en el indicador MACD que mantiene una tendencia positiva desde el 22/08. En el gráfico a más largo plazo, todavía está lejos de mostrar un cambio de la tendencia bajista. A medida que nos acercamos al final del año, que generalmente denota mayor consumo de chocolates y por ende una mejoría en el precio, esperare ver una reversión de la tendencia por el efecto de la estacionalidad. Los Macro eventos definitivamente tendrán mayor peso a las posibilidades de las micro tendencias.
ICEUS:CC1!
by ejencalada