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Agricultural Commodities

Sugar Futures ( SB1!), H1 Potential for Bullish BounceType: Bullish Bounce Resistance: 20.32 Pivot: 19.96 Support: 19.81 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 19.96 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st resistance at 20.32 along with graphical swing high resistance. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, the price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 19.81 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures ( ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bullish BounceType: Bullish Bounce Resistance: 1710'4 Pivot: 1690'6 Support: 1682'2 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 1690'6 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st resistance at 1710'4 in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1682'2 in line with 100% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Sugar and FCOJ Take the Bullish BatonThe soft commodities sector of the commodity market can be highly volatile. Historically, sugar, coffee, cotton, cocoa, and frozen concentrated orange juice futures that trade on the Intercontinental Exchange have doubled, tripled, and halved in value over short periods. While clothing and other consumer goods depend on the cotton market, the other sector members are foods. The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022 Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022 FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high Sugar could be next for three reasons Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips Brazil is the world’s leading producer and exporter of three of the soft commodities; sugar, coffee, and oranges. Sugar comes from two sources, sugar beets and sugarcane. Brazil’s tropical climate makes it the leading sugarcane producer. Arabica coffee beans are popular in the US and other areas, while Robusta beans produce espresso coffees. Brazil leads the world in Arabica production. While many people associate orange production with Florida and California, Brazil is the world’s top orange producer. Cocoa, the primary ingredient in chocolate confectionery products, comes mainly from West Africa, as the Ivory Coast and Ghana produce over 60% of the world’s annual supplies. Soft commodities are agricultural products, so the weather in growing areas typically determines the prices each year. Since the 2020 pandemic, the price action has been anything but ordinary. The two latest soft commodities to lead the sector on the upside have been sugar and FCOJ futures. The soft commodity sector rose in 2021, and Q1 2022 In 2021, the composite of the five soft commodities that trade in the futures markets on the Intercontinental Exchange rose 31.57%. In Q1 2022, the softs added to gains, rising 6.58%, with all five members posting gains. Cotton futures led the softs higher with a 20.51% gain. Cocoa futures moved 5.16% to the upside, with FCOJ posting a 3.86% gain. Sugar rallied 3.23%, and Arabica coffee futures eked out a 0.13% gain. Meanwhile, coffee and cotton rose to new multi-year highs during the first three months of 2022. Coffee and cotton rose to multi-year highs in 2022 In June 2020, coffee futures made a higher low under the $1 per pound level before taking off on the upside. The weekly chart shows the bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs that took coffee futures to $2.6045 per pound in early February 2022. Coffee futures rose to the highest price since 2011. Cotton futures also rose to the highest level since 2011, peaking at the $1.4614 per pound level in April 2022. Coffee futures were over the $2.20 level, with cotton above $1.40 on April 14. FCOJ takes off on the upside in April and makes a new multi-year high Frozen concentrated orange juice futures are the least liquid of the five soft commodities, based on daily volume and open interest metrics. While the FCOJ futures arena rose to a new multi-year high in Q1 2022, the bullish price action continued in April with higher highs. The chart shows that nearby FCOJ futures rose to $1.8660 per pound last week, the highest level since March 2017. The all-time high in the orange juice market came in 2016 at $2.35 per pound. Brazil is the leading producer and exporter of oranges and Arabica coffee beans. The South American country also is the leader in free-market sugarcane production and exports. Sugar could be next for three reasons Sugar futures rose to 20.69 cents per pound in November 2021, the highest price since February 2017. The weekly chart shows that sugar futures were above the 20 cents per pound level last week. Sugar is approaching the first technical resistance level at the November 2021 20.69 cents high. Above there, the next target is at the October 2016 23.90 high, which is a technical gateway to the 2011 36.08 cents per pound peak. Three factors support sugar prices in April 2022: Rising inflation is lifting all commodity prices, and the trend is always your best friend in markets across all asset classes. Rising crude oil and natural gas prices support sugar. Crude oil is over the $100 per barrel level, and natural gas stopped just short of $7 per MMBtu last week. Multi-year highs in the energy market support sugar as it is the primary input in Brazilian ethanol production. As more sugarcane goes into ethanol production, less is available for exports. Sugarcane production costs are increasing as they are labor-intensive. The rising Brazilian real makes sugar more expensive to produce. The chart illustrates the technical breakout to the upside in the Brazilian currency against the US dollar. A higher real increases the cost of production, putting upside pressure on sugar’s price. Trading softs from the long side- Buy those dips Stocks and bonds have been shaky in 2022, and cryptocurrencies have not yet of the slump that took prices lower since the November 2021 highs. Commodities have been the place to be for investors and traders over the first four months of 2022. The latest inflation report will likely keep the bullish party in raw material markets going. I remain bullish on soft commodities as they are highly volatile and can offer explosive returns. Sugar is my top choice as of April 15, as the sweet commodity loosed poised to eclipse the 2021 high on its way to higher ground. Meanwhile, I favor all soft commodities in the current environment. The optimal approach to the sector has been buying on price weakness, and I expect that to continue. Bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and corrections can be the best route to optimizing returns over the coming weeks and months. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Editors' picks
ICEUS:OJ1!Long
by Andy_Hecht
12
Coffee Futures ( KC1!), H1 Potential for Bullish BounceType : Bullish Bounce Resistance : 227.70 Pivot: 221.75 Support : 219.20 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 221.75 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st resistance at 227.70 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 219.20 in line with 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No major news.
ICEUS:KC1!Long
by Genesiv
FOOD CRISIS bad for stocks?There has been a lot of talk since the Ukraine - Russia war started that the rising prices in the agricultural sector will cause a new Bear Cycle in the stock market. Commodities have been rising across the globe as a result of an inflation build up in recent years, accelerated by the COVID pandemic, but with agriculturals in particular, the story is a little different. This chart illustrates Corn (blue trend-line), Sugar (orange), Soybeans (teal), Oats (black) and in the pane below them is the S&P500 index (green trend-line). As you see, even though price rallies on the agriculturals have caused minor (from a long-term perspective) pull-backs on S&P (as they did in February/ March), they only coincided with a Bear Cycle in the 2007/08 Bear Cycle, which of course was caused by the subprime mortgages. So the conclusion we can draw is that global indices' reaction in February/ March with a strong pull-back, was very natural based on the long-term historic action. A Bear Cycle has to have a strongest macro-economic catalyst, strong enough to affect the fundamental structures of the capitalistic/ monetary system that supports the stock markets. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBOT:ZC1!
by TradingShot
2
Apr 5, 22 Wheat Go Long My FriendsI've been watching whaet for a while now waiting for a bottom. Hopefully last week was the bottom. I put a Buy Order in at 1000 on Friday and wheat is slowly moving up. With the war and drought going on, spring planting is screwed in Ukraine and Russia which account for about 25% of the worlds wheat. I'm in this one for the long haul - hoping wheat will keep going up to 1300, maybe higher once the world realizes there is going to be a massive shortage. Stay safe. Heiko
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by HEIKOTradingSystem
6
Sugar Futures (SB1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish DipType : Bearish Reversal Resistance: 20.69 Pivot: 20.41 Support : 19.86 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish dip from our pivot at 20.41 in line with 138.2% Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 19.86 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by stochastic indicator where price is trading near resistance level. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 20.69 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No major news
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by Genesiv
Lean Hogs With Oil Futures CorrelationsLean Hog has a gap below that has me intrigued but I am not sure how or if it will fill. I will also note this interesting but obvious correlation that I found with oil. We have some interesting inverse correlations on 2/18, 3/17, 3/25 among other days but otherwise similar chart patterns between the two. I am not sure how or why lean hogs front ran the oil pump 2/14 - 2/25 I would be curious to anyone's thoughts on this. Just general observations from a neutral stance.
CME:HE1!
by ChartProphet
Corn Futures ( ZC1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish ReversalType : Bearish Reversal Resistance: 778'0 Pivot: 772'6 Support : 762'0 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish reversal from our pivot at 772'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support at 762'0 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 778'0 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci projection and 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZC1!Short
by Genesiv
Profiting From Higher Food Prices and Shortages in 2022March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb, and April showers bring May flowers. In the northern hemisphere, farmers are now planting the crops that will feed the world after the fall harvest season. Mother Nature is typically the primary determinate of agricultural products as the weather conditions determine if there will be enough supplies to feed the ever-growing global population. As the world addresses climate change, corn and soybeans requirements for biofuel have put additional upside pressure on prices over the past years. Moreover, rising inflation has increased production costs. The war in Ukraine presents a unique set of concerns for the products that provide nutrition and fuel. Grains and oilseeds are going into the 2022 US crop year at very high prices The weather is secondary as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies Higher prices in the US- The potential for famine in other regions Food shortages lead to political change Beans above the teens, corn in the double digits, and wheat explosions could be on the horizon in 2022 and beyond In 2021, a composite of grain, oilseed, and other leading agricultural products rose 29.71%. In Q1 2022, the composite moved another 18.89% higher. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices are sky-high in early April 2022 as the seeds go into the ground, and the prospects for even higher prices are rising each day. Grains and oilseeds are going into the 2022 US crop year at very high prices Nearby May CBOT corn futures settled at $7.4875 on March 31, up 26.21% in Q1. The chart shows corn’s price was higher on April 8 at the $7.6875 per bushel level. Corn’s all-time high was in 2012 at $8.4375, and the coarse grain reached $8 in March before correcting. Nearby CBOT soybean futures settled at $16.18250 per bushel on March 31, posting a 21.79% gain in Q1 2022. Soybean futures were higher at around the $16.89 level on April 8 after reaching a high of $17.65 in February 2022. In 2012, the beans reached a record high of $17.9475 per bushel. CBOT soft red winter wheat is the most liquid wheat futures contract and a global price benchmark. The CBOT wheat rallied 20.34% in 2021 and was 30.52% higher in Q1 2022. The CBOT wheat settled at $10.06 per bushel on March 31 and was at over the $10.50 level on April 8. The wheat futures rose to a high of $13.40 in May, eclipsing the 2008 $13.3450 per bushel record peak. As the seeds go into the ground in the US and other growing regions in the northern hemisphere, prices are at multi-year highs and not far from record levels. The weather is secondary as the war in Ukraine threatens supplies The weather typically causes price volatility during the annual planting and growing seasons. However, 2022 is anything but a typical year. Rising inflation has caused input prices to soar, pushing land values, rents, financing costs, energy, labor, equipment, seed, and other expenses higher. Moreover, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed Europe’s breadbasket into mine and battlefields. Russia and Ukraine export one-third of the world’s annual wheat requirements and substantial amounts of corn, barley, and other agricultural products. The Black Sea ports, a critical logistical hub in the region, is a war zone. Meanwhile, Russia retaliated against sanctions by “temporarily” banning fertilizer exports, sending prices higher, and limiting availabilities. The lack of fertilizers will translate to lower global crop yields. In April 2022, the weather is secondary to the geopolitical landscape for the commodities that feed the world. Higher prices in the US- The potential for famine in other regions In the US, consumers will pay much higher prices for food in the coming months and years. However, as a world-leading agricultural producer, the US food supply is likely to fulfill domestic requirements, barring any catastrophic weather events. Other regions worldwide could face food shortages leading to famine. In a sign that Russia may cut off agricultural exports, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the West’s sanctions would make Russia keep a close eye on its food exports to hostile countries. The Russian leader said, “They will inevitably exacerbate food shortages in the poorest regions of the world, spur new waves of migration, and in general drive food prices even higher.” Even if Russia continues to export to some countries, the production loss caused by the war looks likely to be substantial. Food shortages lead to political change When governments cannot feed people, revolutions tend to follow. The French Revolution that cost the last French Queen’s head began as bread riots in Paris. More recently, the 2010 Arab Spring came two years after wheat reached its previous record high. Bread riots in Tunisia and Egypt caused by rising prices and falling availability caused the sweeping political change in North Africa and the Middle East. Inflation, the war in Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia will have severe ramifications for supplies over the coming years. Feeding people is a government’s primary task, and hungry citizens quickly lose patience with their leaders. Beans above the teens, corn in the double digits, and wheat explosions could be on the horizon in 2022 and beyond Soybean futures first traded in the teens in 2008. In 1973, the oilseed futures reached a high of $12.90 per bushel, beginning the chant of “beans in the teens” from those bullish on the oilseed. While it took three and one-half decades for beans to trade in the teens, the next time they move out of the teens could be on the upside at prices above the $20 per bushel level. Corn has never traded above $8.50 per bushel, but it could head for over $10 in the current environment. CBOT wheat already reached a record high in March 2022, and higher highs could be on the horizon over the coming months and years. While the weather is secondary for the 2022 crop year, a drought, flood, or other weather events that impact the growing season and weigh on supplies could make matters worse. Anything short of a bumper crop from the US and other growing regions away from Europe’s breadbasket could be disastrous for prices and availabilities. The bull market that took the grain sector 29.71% higher in 2021 and 18.89% higher in Q1 2022 looks set to continue. The current environment limits the downside while the upside remains explosive. Risk-reward favors the upside in the commodities that feed and increasingly fuel the world. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Andy_Hecht
Sugar Futures ( SB1! ), H1 Potential for Bearish DipType : Bearish Dip Resistance: 20.69 Pivot: 20.36 Support :19.86 Preferred case: We see the potential for a bearish dip from our pivot at 20.36 in line with Fibonacci extension towards our 1st support at 19.86 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is supported by the stochastic indicator where price is trading at resistance level. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 20.69 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Fundamentals: No major news
ICEUS:SB1!Short
by Genesiv
Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish Bounce!Title: Wheat Futures ( ZW1! ), H1 Bullish Bounce! Type : Bullish bounce Resistance : 1108'4 Pivot: 1071'6 Support : 1055'0 Preferred Case: Prices are at a pivot. We see the potential for a bounce from our pivot at 1071'6 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1108'4 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Prices are trading above our ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish bias. Alternative scenario: Price might continue to dip towards the 1st support level of 1055'0 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No Major News
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by Rockqet
Soybean Oil Futures (ZL1!), H1 Potential for Bullish rise!Type: Bullish rise Resistance : 76.62 Pivot: 73.05 Support : 71.50 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 76.62 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 73.05 in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 71.50 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZL1!Long
by Rockqet