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Agricultural Commodities

Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1662'6 Pivot: 1653'4 Support : 1626'2 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1653'4 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1626'2 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1662'6 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Oil Futures (ZL1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuatioType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 83'30 Pivot: 82'45 Support : 79'93 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the resistance of the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 82'45 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 79'93 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 83'30 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by Genesiv
Why has the Russian ruble not collapsed yet? Russia’s efforts to prop up the ruble appears to be working despite sanctions imposed by Western countries aimed at cutting the Kremlin’s access to external resources and crippling the nation’s ability to fund its war against Ukraine.   Last week, the ruble surged to a more than two-year high against the euro and the US dollar, recouping its losses during the war. The rally was triggered by Russia’s last-ditch attempt to avoid defaulting on a eurobond on Friday.   Russia’s finance ministry paid $564.8 million in interest on a 2022 eurobond and $84.4 million on another 2042 bond, the ministry said Friday. Both payments were made in US dollars, marking a reversal from its previous threat to pay its debts in rubles.   To begin this week, the ruble has continued its strong performance, with the USDRUB down almost 3%. As it stands, Rubles are exchanging hands at less than 69 per USD. Rating cut to selective default Prior to the payment of these bonds, Russia had earlier paid its dollar-denominated bonds in rubles, triggering a rating downgrade by S&P Global Ratings to “selective default.”   The rating agency said investors won’t likely be able to convert those payments into dollars equivalent to the amount due as sanctions on Russia are predicted to worsen in the coming weeks.     Gas for ruble In a bid to bolster the ruble and retaliate against Western sanctions, Russia, one of the top oil-producing countries worldwide, required “unfriendly” buyers of the country’s natural gas to pay in rubles. While many European Union leaders were quick to reject the Kremlin’s demands, one of Germany’s biggest energy companies, Uniper, said it was ready to buy Russian gas by converting its euro payments into roubles.   "We consider a payment conversion compliant with sanctions law and the Russian decree to be possible," a spokesman was quoted by BBC as saying recently, adding that the absence of Russian gas “would have dramatic consequences for our economy.”   Russian national energy giant Gazprom recently cut off its gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria due to their refusal to pay in rubles.   Commodity powerhouse Many countries’ reliance on Russian oil and other commodities like wheat has helped the ruble avoid collapse and may play a role in supporting the currency moving forward.   Vyacheslav Volodin, a top Russian lawmaker, over a month ago said Russia should demand ruble payments for other commodities like wheat, fertilizer, and lumber, adding that Western governments have to pay for their decisions to sanction Russia.  
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by BlackBull_Markets
4
CT1!. P-Modeling Pt 2. Cottons of Cajun: A Hyperinflation Story Welcome Hyperspace Travelers, This is a 1-week time-series model of CT1! Cotton No 2. Futures Contracts. The purpose of this model is to potentially pick up early warning signs of hyperinflation. I think I found a juicy early warning sign. I may of course be incorrect. If we look at data starting in 1973 we can see a well defined coordinated harmonics string with one big event between 2010 and 2012. There is a strong probability that a continuously rising cost of cotton is an early warning sign of hyperinflation. IF.. we continued on the path we are on. THEN... we hit a Strike Target of $220.00. This was the 2010-2011 ATH. Do we repeat the past? I say yes. Maybe? I guess? Sure, why not.. Seems logical. But what do I know?... I just draw irrelevant spirals and lines. Right? Zero Predictive Value. So why attempt or even try? Waste of time if you ask me. But what if.. Global supply and transportation issues. On the cusp of the next industrial revolution.. finite resources.. extreme weather.. destruction of our planet.. cheap labor shortages.. biggest division of wealth ever... You know this.. Right? I just look at the same data as everyone else. Just.. with a different grasp of the future.. Sometimes, I really wonder if we are apart of a simulation. Is this real life? Or is this a test? Communicative Cyclic Filters: Rendered along harmonic string. Are you a test? Is this just a big test? Things to think about I guess.. See you soon :). Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with me, Glitch420
ICEUS:CT1!Long
by Glitch420
1
10 yr KC Wheat potential10yr KC Wheat outlook: Potential course of the KC Wheat market for the next 10 years. Overall the Wheat chart takes a more gradual incline up over the past 50 years but when the market gets spooked, prices can rally in a violant way. After this market tops, I feel the World’s supply and demand fundamentals of all Ag Commodities could support a more gradual transition lower for wheat if food security and shortages remain elevated. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. Wheat is used for food, Corn and beans have other purposes that could influence more volatile markets ahead for them… **Not a prediction, something to watch**
CBOT:KE1!
by mtb1980
Corn and Rate of Change PotentialCorn – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous 4 major bull markets of the past 50 years. Previous price action on charts are often used for support and resistance. I like to look at rate of change during certain periods. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 140% and compares to the 95-96 and the 11-12 rally’s. The previous all time high on corn was 8.43 in Aug 12’ and will act as resistance. If we look at potential price above 8.43, the ROC from 71-73 can be used to project potential up to the 9.50 area. If we use the 06-08 ROC that projects price up to 11.35. **Disclosure** Do not take this as trading advice. The potential is there for 9.50 to 11.35 Corn, but anything could keep us from getting above today’s High.
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
4
Soybeans and Rate of Change PotentialBeans – 3mo Continuous: Comparing our current Bull market with the previous major bull markets of the past 50 years. Currently the 24 mo ROC is at 92%. If beans move to the upper trendline in the $20.00 area it would be a 130% ROC and would “pale in comparison” to the 06-08 and 71-73 bull markets. A 200% ROC on the charts would look very ugly to some and wonderfull to others with a price area at $26.00 **Disclosure** Do not take this as trading advice. The potential is there for higher markets, but anything could keep us from getting above today’s High.
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
Sugar Futures ( SB1!), H1 Potential for Bullish RiseType: Bullish Rise Resistance: 19.37 Pivot: 18.98 Support : 18.84 Preferred case: We are expecting the price to potentially rise from our pivot level of 18.98 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection towards our 1st resistance level of 19.37 which is in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternative scenario: Otherwise, the price might break our pivot structure and trigger a dip to the 1st support level of 18.84 which is in line with previous graphical swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news.
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1704'6 Pivot: 1687'6 Support : 1659'2 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1687'6 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1659'2 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1704'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1704'6 Pivot: 1687'6 Support : 1659'2 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1687'6 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1659'2 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1704'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean Oil Futures (ZL1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuatioType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 83'13 Pivot: 81'56 Support : 79'99 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the resistance of the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 81'56 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal overlap resistance towards our 1st support level of 79'99 which is in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 83'13 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZL1!Short
by Genesiv
July 22' Sugar #11 Futures Technical Analysis Bearish CaseGoing back to November 18, 2021, July 22’ Sugar was in a downtrend, which was broken on Mar 1, 2022 with a close of 18.12. This began a new Primary uptrend, remaining intact until April 20, 2022. Even though this trendline was broken with conviction (closing on the lows of the day April 20), the market rallied on April 21, closing at 19.81 (6 ticks from the high). This close touched that broken trendline, but this time, from the opposite side! More importantly for April 21, the market bounced off 19.49 (low of the day), which was previous major resistance (Pink Line Mar 7-10). Previous resistance tends to become support when a market is in an uptrend. Friday, April 22 brought a solid down day, taking out not only the 19.50 level, but closing below the first major Fibonacci Level (.382) of 19.29. This day brought the most volume (78.31k contracts) since April 13. April 13 was the contract high yet closed the day forming a Gravestone Doji Top. Moving onto technical indicators, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is currently below its 9 EMA (bearish), and below levels not seen since Mar 18 (Sugar had a high of 18.88 that day, well below where we are trading today!). This is considered Negative Divergence, as Sugar is trading higher today, then the last time period when MACD was at these levels. Bearish Case: Up trendline on a Daily chart that is broken. Daily Gravestone Doji Top completed on the contract high. Negative MACD divergence. Currently trading below the .382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous trendline. 18.92 (50% retracement level) is very likely to be seen sooner than later. One thing to keep in mind is that 19.50 could be revisited, yet this time acting as resistance. If 19.50 is revisited, and remains intact as resistance, a close below 19.17 in needed as confirmation to continue lower. -Paul Wankmueller CMT
ICEUS:SBN2022Short
by Paul_Wankmueller
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bullish rise!Type: Bullish rise Resistance : 1726'4 Pivot: 1704'6 Support : 1688'4 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud and the ascending trendline, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance in line with the 1726'4 in line with the swing high resistance from our pivot of 1704'6 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal overlap support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1688'4 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv