Get started

Agricultural Commodities

Wheat: Bulls are Back! 🐂Wheat is once again showing its bullish side and is taking the first upward step out of the sideways movement of recent weeks. In the further course, the price should now continue the blue wave (c) and complete the superordinate wave A in turquoise. Following this, we expect a sell-off. Within the framework of our alternative scenario, however, it remains 37% likely that the price will once again fall below the support level at USX 495.25 in order to make a lower low of wave Alt. (b).
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Wheat Holding at the PCZ of a Bullish Bat Aligning with SupportWheat 2 years after topping out at the PCZ of a Bearish Shark that initiated a downtrend in 2022, has now come back to the top side of the range wheat traded in between the years of 2016 and 2020 before ultimately confirming the bottom at the PCZ of a Bullish Deep Gartley in 2019 and breaking free to the upside of the trading range in late 2020. Now that wheat has found its way back down here at this previous resistance zone, we can see that it has formed a Bullish Bat structure on the way down which aligns with the old resistance and that it is currently attempting to be supported by the 200-period moving average on the 2-week timeframe. We can likely assume that as the Baltic Dry Index continues higher, wheat will regain it's 2021 highs along with many other agricultural goods and that this will have an inflationary effect overall. In the related ideas section I will leave a setup for BDRY which is the ETF that tracks the Baltic Dry Index and I will also leave the DBA which is an ETF that holds the futures contracts for various different agricultural goods such as corn, wheat, sugar, and more related items. I will also leave setups for two Dry Bulk and Containership Charterers. Lastly I will provide my harmonic Inflation Rate projections.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by RizeSenpai
1
Can wheat break above previous trendline support?Wheat Technicals (May) Wheat futures shot higher overnight but got stonewalled by what was previously trendline support (now resistance). A failure to close out above 550-555 keeps the Bear camp in control with a potential retest of the lows still in play. Further escalation in the Middle East could turn the tide back to Bullish. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 573 1/2-575***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611** Pivot: 550-555 Support: 537-540***, 525** Fund Positioning Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWK2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
Soybeans testing key supportSoybeans Technicals (May) May soybean futures broke lower but found support at our 4-star support pocket which we've outlined in recent reports as 1128 1/2-1133 1/2. The Bulls need to see this pocket defended, a failure to do so could accelerate the selling pressure. Below this support pocket and prices are back in uncharted territory, the next support level would be the psychologically significant $11.00 level. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175*** Pivot: 1150 Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2****, 1100** Fund Positioning Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down, that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSK2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
Soybeans Drift LowerSoybeans Technicals (May) May soybean futures attempted to hold ground yesterday, but it lacked conviction. Prices are giving back those gains in today’s trade. 1155-1160 is the first resistance pocket the Bulls need to overcome to help spark a bigger relief rally. A failure to do so keeps the potential for new lows alive and well. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1155-1160, 1170-1175 Pivot: 1150 Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2**** Fund Positioning Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 
CBOT:ZS1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Wheat Breaks Below SupportWheat Technicals (May) May wheat futures broke lower yesterday, after struggling to maintian price action above trendline support in the previous two sessions. This has the Bear camp back in the driver’s seat as we officially enter the back half of the week. A close back above 550-555 would neutralize the recent bearish action. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 573 1/2-575, 595 3/4-600, 608 1/2-611** Pivot: 550-555 Support: 537-540*, 525 Fund Positioning Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn’t the most friendly time of year. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZWK2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
Soybeans Under PressureSoybeans Technicals (May) May soybean futures broke back below support yesterday which accelerated the selling pressure and keeps the door open for a retest of the February lows in play, that comes in from 1128 1/2-1133 1/2. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1155-1160***, 1170-1175*** Pivot: 1150 Support: 1128 1/2-1133 1/2**** Fund Positioning Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 1k contracts, putting their net short position at 139,310 contracts. Broken down that is 54,057 longs VS 193,367 shorts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for November soybeans, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZS1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Wheat Futures Riding a Fine LineWheat Technicals (May) May wheat futures traded in a wide range yesterday, on both sides of unchanged. This morning, prices are attempting to firm as the market revisits our pivot pocket from 550-555. The Bulls will want to see consecutive closes back above this pocket to spur a move back towards the recent highs. A failure to do so could put the Bears in the driver's seat. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 573 1/2-575***, 595 3/4-600***, 608 1/2-611** Pivot: 550-555 Support: 537-540***, 525** Fund Positioning Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 5.4k contracts. That trims their net short position to 86,568 contracts. Seasonal Trends (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results) Below is a look at price averages for July wheat, using the 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year averages. Historically this isn't the most friendly time of year. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZW1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Corn Prices To Fire Up on Rising Energy CostsIt is official. Inflation is back. But not everywhere. Food inflation is on the decline. All three major crops, Soybean, Wheat, and Corn have declined substantially. Bearish sentiments rings loud across agri with ample supplies combined with solid harvest expectations. Among crops, corn has fared best. Its prices have not declined as much. Corn outlook is positive given South American supply uncertainty and gasoline linked demand spike. Corn prices face downside risk from ample supply in the near term. Prices have the potential to spike during later part of the year due to supply uncertainty and higher consumption. Traders can deploy a calendar spread in CME Corn futures comprising of a short September 2024 Corn Futures (ZSU2024) and a long March 2025 Corn Futures (ZSH2025) to gain from shifting dynamics. RECORD US CROP WILL SUPPRESS NEAR TERM CORN PRICE The US produced a record 389.69 million MT of corn last year as per latest USDA figures. Massive production is a result of record high yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. Globally, corn production in the current marketing year is expected to reach a record 1,227 million MT, due to the US crop last year. Higher supply is expected to lead to a buildup in ending stocks. Stocks are expected to increase from 302.19 million MT to 318.28 million MT. This represents a buildup of almost 16 million MT. Ample supplies are a headwind to near term corn prices. USDA ESTIMATES MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC Global corn production forecasts by USDA may be too optimistic. Upcoming harvests from Brazil and Argentina may spring surprises to the downside. USDA’s forecast for the Brazil corn crop is currently at 124 million MT. Brazil’s national agricultural agency - CONAB - puts the harvest at 110.9 million MT as per their latest crop survey . The difference stems from USDA’s assumption of higher planted area. CONAB recently cut its estimate for planted area pointing to lower crop prices dissuading farmers from planting corn. Planting in Brazil is delayed from its usual schedule. USDA is also optimistic about the Argentinian crop. It reduced its forecast for Argentinian corn by 1 million MT to 55 million MT in the latest WASDE report. However, that is still optimistic given the ongoing spread of spiroplasma disease. Last week, Argentina’s Rosario Exchange slashed corn estimates to just 50.5 million MT from a previous forecast of 57 million MT citing crop loss linked with diseases. USDA estimates are 18 million MT higher than harvest forecasted by regional agencies across Brazil & Argentina. Corn supplies may end up being much tighter than the USDA is currently forecasting if harvests come softer than anticipated. ETHANOL PRODUCTION IS LIKELY TO INCREASE CORN CONSUMPTION USDA increased its forecast for corn consumption for ethanol production by twenty-five million bushels (635k MT) in the latest WASDE report. With gasoline and crude prices on a tear, ethanol blending into gasoline is likely to remain elevated during the coming months driving corn demand. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) serves as another source of corn demand in 2024. The Biden Administration is set to release its primary climate model for SAF subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act in the “very near future”. While recent reports have stated that the model may be restrictive compared to corn-ethanol industry expectations, the subsidies will undoubtedly drive higher demand for corn-ethanol. CORN FUTURES CONTANGO IS STEEPENING Corn Futures term structure has become noticeably steeper over the past three months. Premium for dated contracts have increased. Specifically, corn delivery in later part of 2024 and early 2025 command higher premium. MARKET METRICS ARE TURNING LESS BEARISH FOR CORN CME Corn Options positions are currently skewed bullish with a put/call ratio of 0.84. Over the past week, bullish positioning has increased with large call option buildup on June (OZCN4) and December contracts (OZCZ4). Asset managers have also started to reduce net short positioning on CME Corn Futures since positioning reached its all-time low mid-February. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP South America corn supply remains uncertain even as the US delivers a record harvest. Corn prices will remain bearish in the near term amid ample supplies. Longer term, supply shocks and rising demand has the potential to send corn prices higher. This is evident from steepening contango in CME Corn Futures. To express the view on corn prices increasing towards the end of the year, traders can establish a calendar spread comprising of short position in September 2024 futures (ZCU2024) and a long position in March 2025 futures (ZCH2025). CME corn futures offer deep liquidity even for contracts in 2025 allowing such calendar spreads to be executed efficiently. A hypothetical trade setup comprising of the calendar spread consisting of short ZCU2024 and long ZCH2025 also offers margin benefits. The calendar spread position is margin efficient with the entire position requiring margin of just USD 350 as of 15/April/2024. This position not only benefits from the supply trend but also the seasonal trend in corn prices. Corn prices tend to rise from October through February due to seasonal factors. Between April to September, prices tend to decline. This hypothetical spread is supported by both trends. • Entry: 1.06185 (ZCH2025/ZCU2024 = 485/456.75 as of 12/April) • Target: 1.076 • Stop Loss: 1.052 • Profit at Target: USD 323 (Target price = 1.33% higher than Entry => Profit = 1.33% x notional = 1.33% x (485 x Contract Size) = 1.33% x (485 x 5000/100)) • Loss at Stop Loss: USD 225 (Stop level = 0.93% below entry => Loss = 0.93% x notional) • Reward to Risk: 1.44x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
CBOT:ZCH2025
by mintdotfinance
8
Options Blueprint Series: Leveraging Diagonals with Corn FuturesIntroduction to Corn Futures (CBOT) Corn Futures, central to the commodities market, are traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). These futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell 5,000 bushels of corn, providing traders with a mechanism to hedge against price changes or to be exposed to future price movements in the agricultural sector. Contract Specifications: Contract Size: 5,000 bushels Quotation: Cents per bushel Minimum Tick Size: ¼ cent per bushel, equivalent to $12.50 per contract Trading Hours: Sunday to Friday, electronic trading from 7:00 PM to 7:45 AM CT, and Monday to Friday, daytime trading from 8:30 AM to 1:20 PM CT Contract Months: March, May, July, September, December, with additional serial months providing year-round trading opportunities Margin Requirements: Margins are set by the exchange and can vary, with initial margins typically being a fraction of the contract value to secure a position ($1,300 at the time of this publication) The liquidity and volume in Corn Futures make them an attractive market for traders. Factors influencing corn prices include weather patterns affecting crop yields, global supply and demand dynamics, and changes in energy prices due to corn's role in ethanol production. Understanding Diagonal Spreads Diagonal Spreads are a sophisticated options strategy that involves simultaneously buying and selling options of the same type (either calls or puts) with different strike prices and expiration dates. This approach is designed to leverage the time decay (theta) and volatility differences between contracts, making it particularly suitable for markets with expected directional moves and distinct volatility characteristics, like Corn Futures. Key Components: Long Leg: Involves buying an option with a longer expiration date. This option acts as the foundational position, typically chosen to be in-the-money (ITM) to capitalize on intrinsic value while also benefiting from time decay at a slower rate due to its longer duration. Short Leg: Consists of selling an option with a shorter expiration date and a different strike price, usually out-of-the-money (OTM). This leg generates immediate income from the premium received, which helps offset the cost of the long leg. Strategic Advantages: Directional Flexibility: Diagonal spreads can be tailored to bullish or bearish outlooks depending on the selection of calls or puts, strikes and expirations. Time Decay Harnessing: By selling a shorter-term option, the strategy aims to benefit from the rapid acceleration of time decay on the sold option, improving the position's overall theta. Given the cyclical nature of the agricultural sector and the specific factors influencing corn prices, diagonal spreads offer a strategic method to trade Corn Futures options. They provide a balance between long-term market views and short-term income generation through premium collection on the short leg. Application of Diagonal Spreads to Corn Futures In applying Diagonal Spreads to Corn Futures, we focus on a bearish strategy to capitalize on an anticipated gap fill below the current price level. This strategic choice is driven by the analysis of Corn Futures' price action, indicating potential downward movement. A bearish diagonal spread can be particularly effective in such scenarios, offering the flexibility to benefit from both time decay and directional movement. Bearish Diagonal Spread Setup: Long Leg (Buy Put): Select a put option with a longer expiration date to serve as the foundation of your bearish position. Choose a strike price that is at-the-money or in-the-money (ATM/ITM) to ensure intrinsic value. Short Leg (Sell Put): Sell a put option with a shorter expiration date at a lower strike price that is out-of-the-money (OTM). Trade Example: Assumption: Corn Futures are trading at 434 cents per bushel. Long Put: Buy a 47-day put option with a strike price of 435 cents, paying a premium of 7.49 cents per bushel ($374.5 – point value =$50). Short Put: Sell a 19-day put option with a strike price of 415 cents, receiving a premium of 1.01 cents per bushel ($50.5 – point value =$50). As seen on the below screenshot, we are using the CME Options Calculator in order to generate fair value prices and Greeks for any options on futures contracts. The goal is for Corn Futures to decline towards the 415-cent level (origin of the gap). Risk Considerations: While diagonal spreads can offer controlled risk (premium paid = 6.48 = 7.49 – 1.01 = $324 – point value =$50) and strategic flexibility, it's crucial to be mindful of the potential for loss, particularly if the market moves sharply in an unintended direction. Employing risk management techniques can help mitigate these risks: Adjustments and Rolls: Proactively manage the position by adjusting or rolling the short leg to a different strike price or expiration date in response to market movements or changes in volatility. This can help collect additional premium and potentially offset losses on the long leg. Use of Stop Losses: Implement stop-loss orders based on predefined risk tolerance levels. This could be set as a percentage of the initial investment or based on the technical levels in Corn Futures prices. Diversification: While not specific to the strategy, diversifying your portfolio beyond just Corn Futures options can help manage overall market risk. Different markets may react differently to the same economic indicators or geopolitical events, spreading your risk exposure. Regular Monitoring: Given the dynamic nature of Corn Futures and the options market, regular monitoring is crucial. Stay informed about market conditions, news impacting agricultural commodities, and changes in volatility that could affect your position. Diagonal spreads in Corn Futures offer a strategic avenue for traders looking to exploit market conditions and time decay with a defined risk profile. However, the key to successful implementation lies in diligent risk management, including making informed adjustments, employing diversification, and maintaining a disciplined approach to monitoring and exiting positions. Conclusion In this edition of the Options Blueprint Series, we explored the strategic application of Diagonal Spreads to Corn Futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). This advanced options strategy offers traders a nuanced approach to potentially capitalize on market movements, leveraging the inherent time decay of options to enhance potential returns. Employing Diagonal Spreads allows traders to express a directional bias—bearish, in our case study—while managing the investment's risk profile through a combination of long-term and short-term options. By buying a longer-dated, in-the-money put and selling a shorter-dated, out-of-the-money put, traders can set up a position that benefits from both the expected downward movement towards a gap fill and the accelerated time decay of the sold option. However, as with any sophisticated trading strategy, understanding and managing the associated risks is paramount. Directional risks, volatility changes, and the potential for early assignment on the short leg require vigilant management and a readiness to adjust the position as market conditions evolve. By adhering to disciplined risk management practices—such as making timely adjustments, employing stop losses, and maintaining portfolio diversification—traders can seek to navigate the complexities of the options market and aim for consistent, strategic gains. The Corn Futures market, with its dynamic price movements influenced by a range of factors from weather to global supply and demand dynamics, provides a fertile ground for applying Diagonal Spreads. Traders who invest the time to understand both the underlying market and the intricacies of this options strategy may find themselves well-positioned to exploit opportunities that arise from market volatility. In summary, Diagonal Spreads present a strategic option for traders looking to leverage market insights and options mechanics in pursuit of their trading objectives. As always, education and practice are key to mastering these techniques, with paper trading offering a risk-free way to hone one's skills before venturing into live markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
4
Soybeans will take off with inflationI see a sharp ramp up in commodities after Powell's presser on Friday when the inflation metrics come out and he sends a Dovish message (not hawkish enough). The dollar will end up turning back up this summer so I see this upward trend momentarily until after the FED goes in with CBDC's and then commodities will take off. At that point I doubt stocks will exist so I would just caution you to buy freeze-dried food and some precious metals because a Global Depression is coming.
AMEX:SOYBLong
by EmptyEternity
Buy Coffee Day Enterprises LtdCoffee Day Enterprises Ltd. which runs cafe chain with brand name Cafe coffee day is trading at a current price of 53.2 rupees but it's book value is 146. Its around 2.744 times book value. The company is running and generating profit even after the death of its founder years back. It shows that the management of the company is keen to take the company to new heights. Hope you love my analysis. Please invest after your own analysis. Do like and follow. Thank you.
NSE:COFFEEDAYLong
by ronak16125
SOYBEANS Excellent buy opportunity.Soybeans (ZS1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since early 2023 just last week, it almost hit its bottom (Lower Lows trend-line). So far the price has reacted with a minor rebound, while the 1D RSI has been on a major Bullish Divergence (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows). This is the best buy signal since the May 31 2023 bottom where again after an RSI Bullish Divergence, the price rebounded aggressively to the 0.618 Fib on a +12.56% rally. So far within this long-term Channel Down, we have had similar rebounds of +12.56%, +14.26% and +11.86%. Assuming the minimum of +11.86%, we are setting a Target on Soybeans at 1263'5, which may almost make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the natural technical Resistance since April 24 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by TradingShot
CORN Excellent 4-month buy opportunity.Corn's (ZC1!) price action since the COVID recovery in early 2020 is showcasing an amazing resemblance with the previous full Cycle of 2009 - 2014. This is better illustrated on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. Both started the Bull phase on a roughly +175% rebound on the 17 year Support Zone, topping on a Higher Highs (which was a Bearish Divergence with the Lower Highs of the 1M RSI) and then declined both astonishingly by -51.93%. This is where the market is at now. In 2014 the price rebounded by +28.78% back above the 1W MA50 marginally and just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, before resuming the long-term decline to the 17 year Support Zone. As a result, this presents an excellent 4-month buy opportunity with 506'4 as the Target (+28.78%). Notice also that the 1M RSI is on the exact same level (33.75) as it was on the January 2014 Low, and is reversing. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by TradingShot
Cotton # 2 Futures. The Epic 52-Week Highs BreakthroughThe main technical graph is for Cotton # 2 Futures that firmly up this year, with solid 13.5 percent performance in 2024 to this time. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money cotton traders dropped 6k existing shorts and added 11.6k new longs during the week that ended 2/6. That raised their net long to 46,344 contracts. Commercial cotton hedgers added 17.5k short hedges for a 90,540 contract net short as of 2/6. NOAA’s 7-day QPF has another band of heavy precip for the South/East. From the Gulf of TX through TN/NC/KY accumulations top out near 4”. Most of Northern LA, North/Central MS, Northern AL, and Northern GA will get ~2”. Central TX cotton area will also get ¾ to 1 ½” of precip to build up soil moisture reserves. Yesterday’s Drought Monitor confirmed there was still some D3-D4 in Northeast MS, but the total D3-D4 area has fallen from 29% to 2% since December 5th for the South-Southeast. The monthly WASDE update showed a 150k bale lighter domestic cotton use, now at 1.75 million bales. Exports, however, were raised by 200k bales to offset. On net ending stocks tightened by 100k to 2.8 million in the report. The main technical graph for Cotton # 2 futures ICEUS:CT1! indicates on 52-week highs breakthrough, as massive 20-years SMA supported the price over the past 12-15 months. Weekly RSI(14) sub chart is to confirm this epic breakout, while COT data says, Largest speculators are still positive in net position all the time, keeping calm above Zero-level, while producers are to massively sell the production.
ICEUS:CT1!
by Pandorra
[COCOA] Cacao timing to take the correctionCurrently, the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA (cacao) market has undergone a notable upside rally over recent days, culminating in a significant move towards the $6000 level. Today, we observed a precise hit of this key psychological level, followed by a clean rejection, prompting a short position. The primary objective now is to remain below this crucial $6000 level, aiming to capitalize on a potential correction in the recent upward surge. By maintaining short positions, we aim to capture the potential downside movement with a relatively small risk, yet the possibility of a substantial gain. Initially, the trade unfolded favorably, with the price action aligning with our short position. However, subsequent movement saw a retracement back towards the entry level, highlighting the need for vigilance and adaptability in response to evolving market conditions. As we await further price action, it's imperative to remain attentive to developments in the PEPPERSTONE:COCOA market. Tomorrow's movements will provide valuable insights into the durability of the recent rejection and the potential continuation or reversal of the prevailing trend. In navigating this trade, maintaining a disciplined approach and closely monitoring key levels and indicators will be crucial. While the potential for a significant win exists, it's essential to manage risk effectively and remain adaptable to changing market dynamics.
ICEUS:CC1!Short
by ArnoSG
1
WHEAT Bearish pressure under the 1D MA50 and MA200.Wheat (ZW1!) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down pattenr since July 2022. The price is currently on a bearish sequence below both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It appears that technically this is a Bearish Leg following the December 06 2023 Lower High rejection, similar to the one that started on the October 10 2022 Lower High. That sequence reached the Channel Down bottom on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our long-term Target is 455'7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by TradingShot