Agricultural Commodities
WATCHING $SBUX for entry at 101.16WATCHING $SBUX for entry at 101.16
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Are Wheat & Biofuels Supply Plays?Took positions in BG last year, & ended up trading out too soon. Here is a good dip & options are cheap, not trading advice just a MACRO play. As long as food prices are going up & Russian Export Taxes are increasing then Wheat Grain & Biofuels might still be valid fundamentally. Bunge is a global player so please check out their Fundamentals, SEC Filings & Prospectus before investing real money, also it costs nothing to check price action for a few weeks or months before making a decision. That's how lots of analysts make their very best decisions. In fact the way I came across BG was from bad information about an alleged Silver Squeeze. Don't follow hype, do your own research & make the best decisions for you & your investment goals.
Coffee Can Become Cheaper - Reaching Reversal FCP ZoneTraders, Coffee like other commodities has been on a huge run this year. But now it has reached a point of pause, correction and possibly reversal too. So coffee futures can fall down from the FCP zone. Wait for a confirmation as the market has been trending hard upwards.
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2. Never trade without a confirmation
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The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
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LKNCY Repeating MA patternIt can be seen after the MA arrives and makes a small turn towards the upside, price immediately follows
This can be observed on the latest MA (yellow)
The price is within a Rising Wedge (a bearish pattern) but this observation of the MA's give me hope for a bull breakout, as can be seen with each MA in the past
$MSM with upside potential of 70% ??
Technical Wise:
After breaking out of the downtrend, it has been consolidating with healthy volume. Price also moving in higher low while the share price holding above 200-EMA. With this formation, I am expecting to see the price to challange recent high again and has upside potential of 70% which can meet RM 2.7, in mid-to-long term.
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I believe Malaysian sure has clues of brand of Gula Prai, and the company behind that is MSM, which they produce produces, markets and sells refined sugar products. After years down-trending, finally the share price finally break made a comeback in after FEB2021 , followed by good financial turnaround for 4Q2020 after 2 years of loss-making.
I remain bullish with the counter as the trading setup has sparks my interest. On its prospects wise:
🍬 The positive earnings can be sustained as the recovery of domestic sales as economy reopens and more socioeconomic activities leading to more product consumption including sugar.
🍬 Room to grow for the current utilisation rate of 47%, which the company aimed to grow the rate above 50% as mentioned in AR2020. This shall better improve efficiency and result in lower refining and production cost.
🍬 Increasing exposure potential in exports would benefit MSM, as the global sugar retail price has gone up. This put their exports segment to better margin given that they are able to sell at higher price. As in Malaysia, sugar price has capped at ceiling price of RM 2.85 per kg, if any news to revise the capped price would be good for MSM in general.
🍬 Good hedging position in raw sugar price. As the global raw sugar price has gone up to 19usd, it would not reduce MSM margin because the group has fully hedged its raw sugar for 2021 at 0.13-0.14 usd/lbs while 85% of for 2022 at 0.16-0.17 usd/lbs. It can secure better margin for MSM.
wheat will have to enter it's cyclewheat has a 6month cycle, between northern and southern emisphere crop, looks like it will begin a supercycle, like all commodities.
by a thecnical point of view, it's forming a H&S. wheat is a quite "dangerous" commodity to trade so i don't think it's a good idea entering before the pattern ends it's forming and starts going down from that neckline, multiple false breakouts are to expect once the price is bellow the neckline. i don't think it's a coincidence that the natural target of the pattern coincides with a round number (600), witch has been a strong resistance and support in the past.
Cocoa ShortRough market cycles are derived from significant resistance and support using the sine wave and cycle line tool. In tandem with this, the market cycle based reflex indicator cycle line has crossed trend line, as well as the 8 hour fisher transform being "overbought". I would not place a trade based on any of these indications separately, but collectively I believe it is worth shorting at risk / reward ratio of 1:5 as outlined on the chart.
Agriculture - SeasonalityBrief for Agriculture:
- Price inflation of commodities and tailwinds of seasonality will provide a bountiful harvest this year's end for agricultural commodities.
Focus points:
Coffee:
Oats:
Soybean:
Soymeal:
Cotton:
Most interested in Coffee and Oats, as they are showing strong trends entering into the bullish season, but eagerly awaiting Soybean and Soymeal reversals for a most opportune entry.
GLHF
- DPT