Can We Unravel the Mysteries of Wheat Market Stability?In an era of interconnectedness and unprecedented challenges, the global wheat market stands as a critical linchpin of food security. Its intricate interplay of supply, demand, and geopolitical factors has profound implications for the world's ability to feed itself.
The wheat market, a cornerstone of global agriculture, is subject to numerous forces that can disrupt its equilibrium. Climate change, with its increasing frequency of extreme weather events, poses a significant threat to wheat production. Droughts, floods, and heatwaves can devastate crops, leading to shortages and price volatility. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape is fraught with tensions that can impact wheat trade. Conflicts, sanctions, and trade disputes can disrupt supply chains, limiting access to essential food commodities.
Moreover, the growing global population, coupled with changing dietary habits, is placing increasing pressure on wheat production. As incomes rise, consumers are demanding more diverse and protein-rich diets, which can drive up demand for wheat-based products. This increased demand, combined with the challenges posed by climate change and geopolitical instability, creates a perfect storm of uncertainty for the wheat market.
The future of wheat, and by extension, the global food system, hangs in the balance. Can we unravel the enigma of wheat market stability, or will the challenges posed by this vital commodity prove insurmountable? The answer to this question will determine the extent to which we can ensure food security for generations to come.
Agricultural Commodities
Sugar heading for multi-year lowsIs easy to see that the $20 zone is key for sugar, the price broke below it in April and it has not been able to come back above
The price has dropped more than 36% since it peaked in November of 2023 and this week just made a new 52-week low
The next key level is at $17.50, the daily chart already gave a sell or short signal
A follow through below this level could lead to a good gain in the short side
Also, could lower sugar prices lead to higher oil prices?
Remember that oil prices tends to be inversely correlated with the price of sugar, primarily due to its impact on ethanol production and the competing use of sugarcane for fuel versus food.
Soy Bean Cash CFD Bullish Side Money Heist PlanHola ola Robbers / Money Makers & Losers,
This is our master plan to Heist SOY BEAN Cash CFD Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
COCOA LONG 16/08/24Hello everyone,
We seem to struggle a little to get our higher high back, but an uptrend has been identified as you can see with RSI and the blue semi circle, so everything is going according to plan with a little more time than we thought.
IMPORTANT NOTE : at 15/16/17h tomorrow, there is a very strong risk of a brutal drawdown like the one we saw today, be very careful because it is almost sure at 17h, risky at 15 and 16h.
COCOA FULL LONG 15/08/24Hello everyone,
Tomorrow is finally our day. Between technicals, news and a low RSI compared to the previous low, every single condition is perfect for COCOA to break the roof.
Trust us, buy when it opens, wait for the end of the day, it will somehow go up, we drew a few routes to try and show you how to expect it, but no matter what happens, do not sell, stay long.
COCA SHORT 11/08/24Hello everyone,
Hope you got to spend a nice weekend, let's get back to work.
First of all the RSI is getting dangerously high, meaning a very likely fall in the few days.
Further than the technicals, there's concrete evidence among our expertise information supplier that tomorrow is going to be a spectacular drawdown.
We drew a red line in order to show you the point where you should put your SL, but it is obvious that tomorrow is the vengeance of our failure of Friday (which we are really sorry for btw)
Tomorrow is all in short, see you after for a debrief.
Starbucks: Brewing Long-Term Success Amid Short-Term ChallengesTrading at 23.4% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 9.78% per year
Earnings have grown 10.8% per year over the past 5 years
Pays a reliable dividend of 3.04%
Starbucks Corporation's recent earnings report might have raised some concerns, but there are several reasons to remain optimistic about SBUX stock.
Despite a challenging quarter, Starbucks is strategically investing in digital innovation and expanding its global footprint, positioning itself for long-term gains.
The company's focus on sustainability and enhancing customer experience highlights its commitment to quality. Moreover, Starbucks' diverse product offerings and loyalty programs provide a solid foundation for future growth.
With strategic cost-cutting measures and a strong financial position, Starbucks is poised to rebound and deliver value to its investors.
COCOA SHORT 09/08Hello everyone,
It is now clear that we're in a downtrend, as the RSI always rises back up after each low.
So there are several possible scenarios, but the most logical one would be a sharp fall towards the precedent lower low, as show the green and orange paths.
The red path shows the low probability path which grows back up to close the gap that was not closed yesterday, but it is highly unlikely.
We advise you to sell as soon as it opens but try to place a tight SL somewhere not too high because again, the change of a trend with cocoa can get very ugly very quick.
Hope it helps.
COCOA LONG THEN SHORT 08/08Hello everyone,
It seems like we might have reached the end of the uptrend, considering external factors and technicals such as a growing RSI on the high scales indicating a change of direction very soon.
However, it seems that there will be a gap or a downfall at first as usual, then a moderate uptrend which will start to collapse around 16/17h, when the liquidity it at its prime.
We advise you to not open any position past this time because the end of a trend with Cocoa can get very ugly things.
Hope to help you tomorrow with this, may the Lord be with us.
COCOA LONG WEDNESDAY 07/08Hello everyone,
Today is a little bit special because we've incorporated our mistakes and taken some advance by adding more downforce to our patterns.
First of all, we predict a big down gap at the beginning, because of night time factors.
Then, it might keep going down for a while, but it will eventually come back up, first to close the gap and then because our study shows it is almost sure, even more than today and yesterday.
Our advice is to buy when the gap appears, try not to be too quick, let the price fall if it wants to, but as soon as it goes back up, buy.
Hope to help you all !
NESN - Nestlé - NSRGYTrading at 42.9% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 6.49% per year
Earnings grew by 15.8% over the past year
Pays a reliable dividend of 3.44%
NSN stock has been consistently outperforming expectations, showcasing impressive growth and stability. With strong financials and innovative strategies, it’s a smart investment choice for long-term gains. Highly recommended! 🙃🙃🙃🙃
I don't want to talk about all the scandals Nestle has been involved in over the past few weeks.
COCOA LONG TUESDAY 06/08It seems that the price could go up to 8500/600 before the closure tomorrow night. The turnover is starting to be clear, showing a high target at least around 8400 before tomorrow night.
Our advice is to buy maximum 1 hour after the opening, there will be a very little drawdown because of the last position of the price. But as soon as you see the price turn up, don't hesitate and go long.
Updates will follow if changes occur, thanks for your trust.
COCOA LONG MONDAY 05/08Our team of experts posts our first official forecast for our most well known asset, COCOA, with a good start because it seems that it is fully going up.
Because of technicals, weather and cocoa data analysis, even though the small red area at the top might reject the price if it gets too high, it seems that it could go up to 8500/600 before the closure tomorrow night.
We drew the green semi circle to show you the global movement towards the next days, even though Cocoa stays really volatile.
Our advice is to buy at the opening, there might be a very little drawdown but for the 15 first minutes maximum, so buy as soon as it opens until 17/18 without any risks.
XAUUSD FORECAST 2MWelcome to this new page, we're a team of experts working 24/7 on metals and cocoa really detailed forecasts. Our main resources are based on news, technicals and our 3 year experience gives us a true credibility that you will see as long as we keep posting.
Please keep in your mind that :
- we're no professionals/counselors/financial advisers
- you shall not place money that you should not if you can't live without it
- we reject any kind of responsibility in case of a loss, this account only gives indications and further information regarding XAUUSD and COCOA, you and you only are in charge of your money and don't have to trust us
This is and will be a short series about XAUUSD, our team has come to the conclusion that for the next month nothing much will happen, some kind of fall between the big rally to the 3000s.
SUGAR NO11 Short-term analysis of Sugar no11. Including 2 statistical charts showing the % monthly price changes over the last 5 years and a chart detailing the occurrence of consecutive positive and negative days "candles" and their frequency over 12 months.
- I expect more selling in July and then a rebound in August.
- Follow me on my socials for more detailed content
ZW: Wheat to Rebound with Fed Rate Cuts and Dollar DevaluationCBOT: Wheat Futures ( CBOT:ZW1! )
On Friday, July 12th, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
(Note: The WASDE report is published monthly and provides annual forecasts for global supply and use of wheat, rice, coarse grains, oilseeds and cotton, as well as the U.S. supply and use of sugar, meat, poultry eggs and milk. Today’s analysis will focus on wheat.)
USDA’s balance sheet update for the 2023/24 US wheat crop showed a carryout of 702 million bushels (mbu), as exports were taken to 707 mbu. For the new crop, USDA raises the wheat stocks by 98 mbu to 856 mbu. Some of the increases was a larger carryover, but most came in the form of higher production.
USDA raised the wheat crop by 133 mbu to 2.008 billion bushels (bbu). Harvested acres was raised from 38.0 to 38.8 million acres. Yield per harvested acres was raised by 2.4 bushels per acre (bpa) to 51.8 bpa. Winter wheat was up 46 mbu to 1.341 bbu, as the Hard Red Wheat (HRW) total was projected at 763 mbu (+37 mbu), with Soft Red Wheat (SRW) at 344 mbu (+2 mbu) and white winter at 234 mbu (+8 mbu). The initial other spring wheat figure was tallied at 577.8 mbu, more than 56 mbu above market estimate.
Global wheat stocks were raised by 4.97 million metric tons (MMT) to 257.24 MMT, with a bulk from the US, as both Canadian and Argentine wheat production were raised.
Wheat Futures drop across three futures markets, CBOT, KCBT and MGEX, after WASDE shows higher production.
• Jul 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.38, down 16 1/4 cents,
• Sep 24 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.50 3/4, down 20 1/2 cents,
• Jul 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.04, up 12 3/4 cents,
• Sep 24 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.67 3/4, down 16 cents,
• Jul 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.21, unchanged,
• Sep 24 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.97 1/2, down 21 1/4 cents
The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed CBOT wheat speculative traders net short 69,137 contracts as of July 9th, a reduction of 4,837-contract on the week. In KC wheat, they were trimming 2,292 contracts to 40,811 contracts by July 9th.
In my opinion, the futures market has quickly absorbed the bearish WASDE report. With wheat trading at historical low levels, a rebound may be brewing in the next few months.
Traditionally, August is the time to hedge weather risks in agricultural commodities. If summer weather in the Midwest and Great Plain regions turns out to be less than ideal, the previously expected higher yield will have to be adjusted downward, reducing total production.
In today’s market, how could the expected Fed rate cuts impact commodities?
Last Tuesday, July 9th, Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared in a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on Capitol Hill.
The Fed Chair expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”
“At the same time, in light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labor market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said in prepared remarks. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”.
The prospect for quicker rate cuts increased immediately after these dovish remarks. According to CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25bp rate cut in September is now 90.3%. Futures traders look for 3-4 rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 53.8% probability for the Fed Funds rate lowering to the 4.25%-4.75% range.
(www.cmegroup.com)
Would the lower interest rates be bullish for commodities like wheat?
Firstly, lower interest rates will reduce borrowing costs. This will help business grow, with more jobs, income and consumption coming along the way. At the end, it will help increase the demand for commodities such as wheat.
Secondly, as a major agricultural commodity, wheat is priced in the US dollar and traded in the global market. In previous writings I explained that lower interest rates would result in currency depreciation, as prescribed by the Interest Rate Parity theory (IRP).
For foreign buyers, dollar depreciation means an appreciation of their local currency. The cost of importing wheat will be lowered when converted in local currency. Lower costs help increase the demand for wheat.
Trading with CBOT Wheat Futures
The 3-year price chart for CBOT wheat futures shows three distinguished patterns:
• From February to April 2022, wheat prices nearly doubled from about $7 to $13. This was driven by geopolitical crisis and the fear of global supply shortage.
• From May 2022 to July 2023, the Fed implemented 11 consecutive hikes, which helped cut wheat prices by half to about $6.
• From August 2023 to present, as the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in seven FOMC meetings, wheat prices moved sideways in the $5.50-$7.00 range.
As we can see here, Fed policy and geopolitical crisis have an outsized impact on wheat prices, as compared with fundamental supply and demand.
In my opinion, the supply and demand factors are already priced in the market. However, the impacts from Fed rate cuts and outcome of the upcoming presidential election are not yet fully grasped by the market. The expected Fed loosening cycle would have the opposite effect of the Fed hikes. Wheat prices could potentially move up the $7.00-$9.00 by 2025.
On July 12th, the March 2025 contract of CBOT wheat futures (ZWH5) settled at $5.975 per bushel. Each contract has a notional value of 5,000 bushels, or $29,875 at market prices. Buying (long) or selling (short) one contract requires an initial margin of $2,000 at the time of writing.
CBOT lists 15 monthly contracts of Mar, May, Jul, Sep, and Dec. Wheat traders could take up positions two years from now, for the month of July 2026. Trading on the 3rd or 4th contract month would satisfy the liquidity requirements while allowing time for market-impacting variables to change, based on my experience.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
PONNIERODEAll Time High Breakout.
Accumulation Done.
Huge Volumes.
Good for Short Term.
Do Like ,Comment , Follow for regular Updates...
Keep Learning ,Keep Earning...
Disclaimer : This is not a Buy or Sell recommendation. I am not SEBI Registered. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investments . This is for Educational purpose only.
Grain Market and Bread Prices - Its Potential TrendIn today’s tutorial, we will track the potential prices of this important staple, wheat, which is used to make our bread. In these studies, we will use a combination of technical analysis and fundamental developments to support this view.
Chicago SRW Wheat Futures & Options
Ticker: ZW
Minimum fluctuation:
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Coffee Futures: Bearish Confluence Indicates Potential Short PosIn the coffee futures market, recent analysis reveals a significant bearish outlook. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that commercial traders are holding major short positions. Additionally, seasonal patterns suggest a tendency for bearish momentum during this time of the year, further reinforcing the downtrend.
Technical Analysis and Confluences
Supply Area and Fibonacci Levels:
Price Action: The price has reached a key supply area, suggesting a potential retest and subsequent decline.
Fibonacci Confluences: Various Fibonacci retracement levels align with this supply area, adding strength to the bearish case.
Momentum Indicators:
Overbought Conditions: On the H4 timeframe, momentum indicators such as the RSI show that the market is currently in overbought territory. This typically precedes a price correction or reversal.
Seasonal Trends:
Historical data indicates that coffee futures often experience bearish pressure during this period. This seasonality aligns with the current technical setup, suggesting that the market could follow its usual pattern of decline.
COT Report Insights:
The COT report underscores that commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are heavily short. This position by commercial traders can be interpreted as a strong bearish signal, given their historical accuracy in forecasting market movements.
Trading Strategy
Given the combination of a bearish COT report, seasonal trends, and technical indicators showing overbought conditions and resistance at the supply area, we are considering opening a short position in coffee futures.
Key Points for the Short Position:
Entry Point: Around the current supply area, taking into account Fibonacci retracement levels.
Stop Loss: Just above the supply area to manage risk.
Target: Based on historical support levels and previous price actions, aiming for a significant downward move in line with seasonal and COT report signals.
By aligning our strategy with these confluences, we aim to capitalize on the anticipated bearish momentum in the coffee futures market.