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Agricultural Commodities

10 Year Corn Projection (potentially)10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the current market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be current price, 8.50, or 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the more corn begins to ration future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch** At some point we return to a tighter, more defined market structure working low prices against the long term uptrend line… 4.50-5.25 ???
CBOT:ZC1!
by mtb1980
4
10 year Bean Projection (potentially)10yr Corn outlook: Potential course of the Bean market for the next 10 years. Previous inflationary markets have caused for the multi year market structure to step up in price ranges. Before that range is found, Beans will need to mark a pivot high enough to ration some future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch**
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
🌽 Corn Technical Analysis (GrainStats)Corn Fundamentals ( CBOT:ZCZ2023 ) Corn Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌽 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░░ 59% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 437,549 Metric Tons ⬇️ 29,055 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 22,514 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 370,24 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average Export Sales 16,176,285 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬆️ 2,753,396 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Noteworthy News / Themes 🟢 Argentina is behind pace on Corn planting (12% complete) 🟢 US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down) 🟢 Mexico purchased 117,200 metric tons in a flash sales news announcement 🔴 The US still has a +2 billion bushel carryout 🔴 Corn failed to stay above $5.00 futures 🟢 Dry forecast in Argentina 🔴 Wet forecast in Brazil Corn Technicals Corn couldn't settle above $5.00 for too long given the ample expected carryout being priced into the market in the middle of harvest. Consider the sales that were sold above $5.00 as a gift to the farmers and we hope farmers prices some bushels. Outside of this, there really isn't much to say anymore about this market except that after 3 years of a bull market, we're finally getting back to reality and reality in the grain market is quiet. Watch the following levels for now👇 🟢 Current Upside Target: 5.00 🔴 Current Downside Targets: 4.74, 4.675
CBOT:ZCZ2023
by GrainStats
Will soy reach a price of 53.49?As you can see, this increase is temporary in nature because the overall trend is still in a downtrend. So, my expectation for now is that soy prices will climb until they reach the daily resistance zone around 53.50 (as indicated by the red box drawn). It is anticipated that the price will experience a decline upon reaching this level because this zone can be considered quite strong since it hasn't been touched yet. This decline is supported by the fact that soy prices have broken the previous low of 52.08 and are expected to drop to the daily support zone around 50.47 to 50.17.
CBOT:ZL1!
by revotraders
4
WHEATF | Wheat Poised for a Rebound!👋 Good day, traders! 📈 After a two-month decline on the D1 chart, WHEATF has found support at the 540 level. Given its month-long accumulation phase and the completion of its downtrend, a breakout above the 587.75 resistance level could signal a rally towards target levels of 615.00, 660.00, 695.00, and 732.00. Consider buying entries around the 595.00-600.00 range, targeting potential profits of 3.3% to 23.0%, with a SL set at ~565.00. ✅ Give a 👍 if you're keen on more insightful and profitable trading ideas❗️ ❓ I'd love to hear your thoughts. What's your take on this? DISCLAIMER: This idea is purely informational and educational. It's not a trading recommendation. Each trader should analyze and make decisions based on this information independently.
FX:WHEATFLong
by Maxim_Lushnikov
Wheat and Fertilizer Futures: A Cash Cow for War Mongers In this layout I have Black Sea Wheat and Corn, Australian and Ukrainian Wheat, and 4 main Fertilizer (UREA) Futures. Conflict and Wars are good ways for Financial Institutions like Black Rock and State Street Corp oration to make a lot of money. What better way than to destroy the wheat fields/silos themselves and profit at the same time? These markets are built in blood and they are sitting on Advanced Fibonacci Blueprints showing who is really in control. Volatility may be seen as many Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Deal. Wheat supplies will undergo straining for the foreseeable future.
CBOT:AUW1!Long
by MichaelBsul
November Soybeans Test 1300 The November soybean contract tested 1300 per bushel on Tuesday, trading all the way up to 1303 ½, before ultimately settling at 1296 ¾. The question is now - where do we go from here? Psychologically Significant Resistance Failing to close above 1300 means we failed to close above a psychologically significant resistance level at 1300. Moreover, we’ve previously identified 3-star resistance between 1294 and 1299 ¾. Because we closed within that resistance pocket, it’s possible that we test 1300 and beyond once again in Wednesday’s trading session. But what if we don’t? If the market corrects lower on the failure to trade through resistance, where do we find support? Previous Resistance Becoming Support If we reject higher prices in tomorrow’s trade, previous resistance between 1280 and 1285 ¼ should serve as the first line of defense. Meaning, that if we see prices sell off throughout the session on Wednesday, we should expect prices to bounce back somewhere between 1280 and 1285 ¼. If we cut through 1280 rapidly, the next sufficient support pocket may factor in near the 38.2% retracement level between the May 31st and July 24th price extremes - coming in around 1249-1250. The Bottom Line We are in the midst of a pivot in the November soybean contract. Tomorrow’s price action should provide guidance on the intermediate-term’s price trajectory. Last week’s USDA report was mostly supportive of the soybean complex, and export sales have performed well over the past 6 weeks. That said, net-exports remain lower than they were at this time last year, and global demand remains deflated. Pay close attention to tomorrow’s closing prices as they may indicate the direction of the trend over the next 2-4 weeks. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSX2023
by Blue_Line_Futures
The jury is still out on the impact of El NiñoWeather has always been a key factor influencing the outlook for major commodities, especially agricultural commodities. The arrival of El Niño in June 2023 has led to a wide divergence in the performance across agricultural commodities. As discussed in our previous blog “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?”, the effects of El Niño include specific wind patterns across the Pacific Ocean, heavy rain in South America, and droughts in Australia and parts of Asia including India and Indonesia. This is why certain commodities such as cocoa, sugar, soybean oil and grains tend to depict a price positive environment following an El Niño phenomena. So far in 2023 – cocoa, sugar and cotton have been key beneficiaries of the El Niño weather phenomena whilst wheat, corn and soybeans have posted a weaker performance. How is the El Niño evolving? With the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting more than a 95% probability of El Niño continuing through the Northern Hemisphere winter through January - March 2024 , chances are high that we continue to see further weather abnormalities over the coming months. There is now around a 71% chance that this event peaks as a strong El Niño this winter1. The main El Niño monitoring metric showed the average sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean—was 1.3˚Celsius (2.3˚Fahrenheit) above the long-term average in August, up from 1˚C in July1. The whole ocean (Pacific, Atlantic, Indian, Artic and Southern Ocean ) was over 1˚C above the 20th-century average in August, the first time that’s happened in the 174-year record2. An important aspect of ocean changes is the sea level height. Presently there is a strong ocean sea level rise in the easterly tropical Pacific, a clear sign that El Niño is active3. The changes in the ocean heat content are mainly due to the expansion and rise of the strong subsurface warm pool. This also causes the sea level height to increase, usually associated with warmer waters. Agricultural commodities price response to El Niño will vary The growing of agricultural products is sensitive to weather patterns. For some crops, El Niño could boost production, while for others it could damage production. This is because the drift in warm water across the Pacific moves’ evaporation and rain such that Southeast Asia and Australia tend to get drier while Peru and Ecuador tend to receive more precipitation. Should the weather event intensify, it could be a significant catalyst for price gains in cocoa, soybean oil, sugar, and grains as discussed in “What does El Niño’s return mean for commodities?” blog. Cocoa and sugar lead the commodity scoreboard in El Niño ’s slipstream Cocoa has been an important beneficiary of the El Niño. The concentration of supply in West Africa, nearly 70% of global supply4, underlines the outsized impact of the region’s weather patterns on the world’s cocoa supplies and prices. The emerging El Niño is likely to hamper the next main crop that begins in October as it tends to bring dry and hot conditions to West Africa. This comes at a time when heavy rains in West Africa have triggered the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD) and the spread of Black pod diseases. The diseases alongside the high cost of inputs, have not spared the two leading producers (i.e., Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana) and affected their volume of production5. Despite high cocoa prices, demand evident from cocoa grinding continues to rise in Asia and the US6. Sugar has also benefitted from the emergence of El Niño as lower rainfall in Asia, namely India and Thailand have resulted in lower sugar production. However, we expect further upside for sugar prices to be capped as Brazil (the world’s largest producer and exporter) is likely to fill the gap. Production in Brazil’s main Centre- South (CS) growing region between the start of the crop year in April and mid-August already amounted to 22.7mn tons, which is up 22% over the same period last year7. What’s more, the sugar mix increased to 51.1% in H1 September, up from 50.7% in H2 August signalling that Brazilian mills continue to favour sugar production over ethanol amidst higher sugar prices5. Extreme weather conditions in China have reduced domestic supplies. China is also planning to release 1.3mn tons of sugar from its reserves, to increase domestic supplies and stabilise prices4. Wheat prices stand to benefit as key producers to face the impact of El Niño On the other end of the spectrum, grains (namely wheat, corn and soybeans) continued to struggle as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) outlined a more bearish outlook for corn while bullish for wheat. The corn harvest is progressing well with 15% of the crop harvested, up from 11% at the same stage last year and also above the five-year average of 13%8. Moscow’s revocation of the secure grain’s corridor through the Black Sea, alongside the Russian attacks on key infrastructure along the Danube River in Ukraine, have lowered grains exports from Ukraine by 25% over the prior year. Yet wheat prices have fallen sharply this year as Russia’s record crop is enabling it to ship huge volumes to world markets. The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia has likewise reduced its crop forecast for the region by 1.5 million tons to 8.5 million tons. Most of Australia is expected to face warm and dry conditions over the next three months9, so further downward revisions are on the cards. Argentinian farmers are also battling with a drought. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has already warned that the crop in 2023/24 could be impaired if there is no rainfall in the near future. As the prospects for the wheat crop amongst major producer countries are becoming increasingly weak, we expect wheat to benefit from these rising tailwinds. Conclusion There has been a wide divergence within the commodity linked Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) flows since the start of the year. Agriculture linked ETFs have seen US$458mn worth of outflows while energy linked commodity ETFs raked in US$1.2Bn worth of inflows10. Agriculture linked commodity ETFs likely faced outflows owing to profit taking. We continue to expect plenty of upside in select agricultural commodities as the impact of the El Niño is likely to intensify over the upcoming winter. This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ICEUS:CC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In RussiaI write this as I listen to Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto in D Major on the excellent Shen Yun Zuopin platform. It seemed quite fitting for watching the world burn. When you hear propaganda on English social media on a Saturday night that a group of mercenaries are raiding Moscow to overthrow Putin, you absolutely must take what you are hearing and seeing with an entire box of Maldon. Before we begin, I will provide you with the DXY Monthly, which shows the topography more clearly than the daily bars I use for the moving graph: Remember it wasn't even 10 days ago that the US Military was running an exercise in the streets in the United States and the QAnon cultists/CIA campaign were trying to tell people it was because Donald Trump was about to overthrow Joe Biden. The United States has three significant abilities that exceed its direct military power and are why it's able to empire around the world: 1. Masters of propaganda and manipulation 2. A stranglehold on the world economy via the Petrodollar and its oil/LNG production 3. Intelligence, subversion, corruption, and cyber warfare operations No matter what you hear, the war in Ukraine directly involves NATO because NATO member countries are all over the area West of Russia and Belarus, and Washington is the leader of NATO. Wagner PMC and Prigozhin himself are rather savvy propagandists and tacticians. They previously used the narrative that there was much discontent between themselves, the superheroes of the Bakhmut campaign, and the Russian military's old guard, to bait Ukraine into attacking. The end result was a lot of dead UAF and a captured city for the Russian Federation. Moreover, many things right now serve as a distraction to keep the world's eyes and ears away from what's going on inside of mainland China and the coming fall of the Chinese Communist Party. Perhaps Xi Jinping will be this decade's Mikhail Gorbachev and will one night dump the CCP, much to the consternation and dismay of a totally clueless majority mankind. This matter, and the persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Gong by the former Jiang Zemin regime, which Xi has directly contested since he took power a decade ago (this is what the "Anti-corruption campaign" is really annihilating), is what you really need to focus on, rather than "World War III" propaganda. So, you shouldn't go too hard on Sunday and Monday selling equity futures and getting long on gold because you've been told on Twitter that World War III is coming. What you want to do is take a calm and rational look at what can happen. And what can happen entirely revolves around the US Dollar. Right now, the USD looks as if it will pump, rather than dump. Like it or not, it looks like it's going to pump, rather than dump. But the confirmation for the trade comes down to whether or not DXY can breach $105.883. If it can breach $105.883 either in the remaining six trading days of June or in the early portion of July, then we have two scenarios, in my opinion: Whether the target is only the $108-$109 Point of Concern Whether the target is $115-$118-$120 above the '22 high. Frankly speaking, if you look at yearly bars for the DXY: Then literally $135 is en route before 2030. But if $109 is all we have today then $98 is incoming. Generally speaking, it's really worth remembering that USD up = risk off on equities. What's important in life isn't making money in the markets, but it's your family, your friends, your heart, your soul, and your future. Trading should just be a vector for your personal and spiritual development. Gamblers are going to lose more than their shirts, you hear? See the additional calls below for more broad spectrum macro analysis of the situation.
TVC:DXY
by LordWrymouth
3
Is Corn Ready To Pop?Last week, we were looking for a potential bottom in corn. Since then, we’ve mostly traded sideways to slightly higher. However, the end of this week brings a “triple-witching” event - the end of the month, the end of the fiscal quarter, and the quarterly grain stocks report all occur on Friday. In last quarter’s grain stocks report, the market sold off fairly sharply as corn stocks were reportedly 54% higher on a year-over-year basis. The contract’s resilience in defending the lows is very encouraging considering the positioning of managed funds. In the chart below, you can see that managed funds have amassed a substantial short position over the course of the last 6 weeks. As of last Friday’s CFTC Commitments of Traders report, managed funds held 319,079 short positions. Meanwhile, prices have maintained a very tight 15-20 cent trading range. As such, there is significant fund rebalancing in Friday’s session, it may induce a short-covering rally. What does that mean? In order to exit a short position, the contract holder will have to buy a contract. If there is substantial buying volume, it will press prices higher, and force short-positions to exit ultimately resulting in a rally. The question then becomes - how high can we go? Considering that the December corn contract was unable to close above 500 a single time in the month of August or September thus far, that may be an ambitious initial target. In order to retest 500, and ultimately our 502-506 ½ 3-star resistance pocket, we will have to surpass 3-star resistance between 489 and 491. If we manage to trade through 491, it could lay the foundation for December corn to surpass 500 once again. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures