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Agricultural Commodities

EU faces pressure to defuse mounting anger as farmers protest aGiven the mounting anger and protests by farmers across Europe, there appears to be a significant challenge stemming from contradictory and potentially detrimental agricultural policies. The grievances include increased costs for agricultural diesel, additional fees for water consumption, complex regulations, and objections to bans on pesticides and herbicides mandated by the EU's Green Deal. The farmers are also concerned about the import of beef from countries like Brazil and Argentina, which they argue have laxer rules on animal welfare, making competition difficult. This unrest, originating in France but spreading to neighboring countries, signals a broader issue with unpredictable government decisions affecting agriculture. In the Netherlands and Germany, similar protests have arisen over regulations to cut nitrogen emissions and phase out fuel subsidies, respectively. In Germany, there is also resentment over what is perceived as the unfair application of environmental policies. With protests extending to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria, concerns range from unfair competition from cut-price cereals to high taxes and tight regulations. The impact of droughts, floods, and wildfires, combined with the squeeze from green policies, has fueled discontent. For investors, this could be a pivotal moment to consider commodities such as cereals, soybeans, and copper. The disruptions in European agriculture may create fluctuations in the market, making these commodities potentially attractive for investment. However, it is crucial to monitor developments closely as tensions continue to grow, and the agricultural sector shapes up to be a major issue in the upcoming European Parliament elections in June.
AMEX:WEATLong
by Maximus20000
Where is the bottom for soybeans? Soybean futures are off to a rough start in 2024. In the first week of trading, March soybeans were down nearly 42 cents on the back of beneficial rains sweeping Central Brazil. Selling pressure permeated into Monday’s session as well, with soybeans trading down into the mid 1230’s. So, the question now becomes, will March soybeans make new contract lows? Fundamental Snapshot : Monday’s lower price action is not all that surprising considering U.S. export inspections for soybeans were reported at 675k metric tons - below average trade estimates. Meanwhile, Brazil has been exporting both corn and soybeans at record paces each of the past two years, and is expected to have a record or near-record soybean crop this year as well. Wednesday, CONAB will release data pertaining to their estimations of corn and soybeans. Currently, they are less optimistic about the state of the Brazilian soybean crop than the USDA, and USDA will release their World Agricultural Supply and Demand Expectations report on Friday. If we see sweeping downward adjustments to production estimates from both CONAB and USDA, it may help soybeans find a bottom. However, if the market is disappointed in the data released this week, we may see soybeans test 1200 sooner rather than later. Technical Outlook : After last week’s precipitous drop, it was surprising that March beans failed to enter oversold territory. However, it did not take long to break into OS territory on Monday’s session. The head-and-shoulders pattern that’s developed over the past fiscal quarter has a difference of approximately $1.20/bu, which puts an operative price target between 1198 and 1208. That also happens to be the 78.6% retracement level between the mid-June lows and late-July highs. Markets can stay in overbought/oversold territory for extended periods of time, so if data disappoints this week, we may see the head-and-shoulders reach its price target. However, a positive reception to fundamental data this week may serve as a launching pad for soybeans to start moving higher. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSH2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
WHEAT Struggling on the 1D MA200. Long-term sell opportunity.Wheat (ZW1!) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since July 2022 and since early December has failed repeatedly to detach itself above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Since it is closer to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the pattern and it resembles the February 14 High, we expect a strong selling sequence if the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The previous Lower Low was priced on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension from the Lower High. That gives us a projected target of 413'0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by TradingShot
1
HE: Upside Potential on Pork Prices with New Hog Cycle UnderwayCME: Lean Hog ( CME:HE1! ) Throughout 2023, U.S. grocery shoppers find that beef prices rise rapidly. According to the National Daily Cattle and Beef report, published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Choice Beef averaged $290 per cwt (100 pounds) on December 8th. This represents a 16% increase year-over-year and is 21% above the 5-year average. In the futures market, CME Live Cattle ( NASDAQ:LE ) hit bottom at $85 per cwt in April 2020 during the pandemic lockdown period. Since then, cattle prices have trended up in a straight line to top $185 by this September, before pulling back recently in Q4. Beef prices have more than doubled, while the official reading of CPI for Food and Beverage went up by only 27% in the past five years. Fortunately, you could still find low-cost meats if you walk over to the Pork section. Based on the USDA National Daily Hog and Pork report, Hog Carcass averaged $60 per cwt last Friday. It is a whopping 29% discount comparing to the $85 price tag on the same day last year. Ham price averaged $84, which is $10 cheaper than the same period last year. In the futures market, CME Lean Hog ( NYSE:HE ) tends to move up and down in a cycle average 2-3 years. This phenomenon is referred to as “Hog Price Cycle” or “Hog Cycle” in agricultural economics. Pork prices do not appear to be impacted by the inflation. The Hog Cycle Hog cycles are the changes recurring in agriculture in the production and prices. A complete hog cycle includes successive years of increase and decrease in hog production cycle. In general, a higher level of hog inventory will result in pork supply surplus, and cause hog and pork prices to fall in future months. Lower hog stock leads to pork supply shortage and will cause prices to rise. There is a mismatch between hog production cycle and hog price cycle, because it takes time to produce hogs, from farrow to weaned pig, and from feeder pig to market pig. To complete a feedback loop, a producer first observes change in market prices, he then adjusts production level accordingly. It will be 5-6 months later before the change in hog output occurs. We could describe the sequence of events in the following: 1) As producers incur loss from low price, they liquidate sows and reduce hog inventories. 2) A lower level of hog production results in a shortage of pork supply (months later). 3) Pork price goes up as supply could not meet demand. 4) Higher hog price induces producers to raise hog inventory. 5) Higher hog production results in a surplus of pork supply (months later). 6) Hog price declines due to the oversupply of pork in the market. Sow Liquidation Could Lead to Lower Hog Supply in 2024 Iowa State University (ISU) is a leading authority in swine research. Based on the estimates put out by ISU Economics Department, a typical Farrow-to-Finish hog producer in the U.S. would have incurred losses in ten out of the last twelve months. As shown in the table below, a producer farrowed in September 2022 would pay $129.15 in feed cost and $71.90 in nonfeed cost per hog. When he sold the hog with an average weight of 270 pounds in April 2023, he would receive $148.83 and a manure credit of $8.50, resulting in a net loss of $49.47. These steep losses average $21 per month from November 2022 to October 2023. Hog farmers may be forced to liquidate sows this winter. It could result in lower hog inventory and lower pork supply in the coming months. In the 2023 September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, the USDA estimated that U.S. inventory of all hogs and pigs was 74.3 million heads. This was up slightly YOY, and up 2% Q2, 2023. The new quarterly report will be released in two weeks. The updated data would help us validate whether sow liquidation has increased as we hypothesize. USMEF Export Data The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) recently posted export data for October. U.S. pork exports posted another strong performance, led by record-large shipments to Mexico and broad-based growth elsewhere. October beef exports remained well below last year’s large totals but improved from September. October pork exports totaled 245,345 metric tons (mt), up 3% YOY as the largest since June, valued at $688.2 million. For the first 10 months of 2023, pork exports increased 9% YOY to 2.38 million mt, with value up 6% to $6.66 billion. In my opinion, the sharp decline in hog prices increases the competitiveness of U.S. pork around the world, fueling the export boom. CFTC COT Report The U.S. futures market regulator CFTC publishes the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports and provides a breakdown of open interest for futures and options markets. What’s the key takeaway from the December 5th COT report on CME leaned hog? Weekly CFTC data showed the lean hog speculative traders were closing longs and adding shorts during the week that ended 12/5. That left the funds with a 3.4k contract stronger net short of 17,963. This may be a bearish signal. However, speculative traders may have incurred large losses on the long positions, and they simply took cover. Trading Opportunity with Lean Hog Futures To sum up the above analysis, I expect to see lower hog supply due to sow liquidation in the coming months. This will usher a new hog cycle. See step (1) in the 6-step hog cycle above. With a strong labor market and cooling inflation, particularly lower gasoline prices, we could see some improvement in consumer demand for pork. A strong export market reduces supply surplus in the domestic market, which also helps lift pork prices. The April 2024 lean hog futures (HEJ4) was settled at $74.625 last Friday. Each contract has a notional value of 40,000 pounds, or $29,850 at current price. To acquire 1 long or short position, a trader is required to deposit an initial margin of $1,500. The trader could see higher hog prices if sow liquidation speeds up, and the export market remains strong. A long position would profit from the rise in hog price. Each contract would gain $400 for every 1 penny of increase in hog price per pound. On the other hand, hog prices could stay low if the opposite happens. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:HE1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
🌱 Soybean Update 🆕Fundamental Data👇 🌱Soybean Marketing Year Progress (23/24) ▓▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░ 27.62% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 1,108,864 Metric Tons ⬇️ 464,425 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 1,120,580 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 800,246 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week Export Sales🗺️🫰 32,399,826 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬇️ 4,898,256 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Price Sentiment (Community Polling)📊 Bullish 🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 24% Neutral 🟫🟫🟫⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 27% Bearish 🟥🟥🟥🟥🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 44% Fund Net Position💰 Chicago Soybeans: +36,633 Contracts (Position as of 12/05) Funds have been reducing their net long position 3 weeks in a row Noteworthy News / Trends 🆕 🔴 Funds have been reducing their net long position, 3 weeks in a row 🔴/🟢 Export interest for US Soybeans is considerably weak in comparison to previous marketing years, but has improved recently 🔴 The spread between January-March futures continues to show weakness (carry is not bullish) 🟢 Brazilian Soybean production decreased to 161 MMT (USDA) and 160.177 MMT (CONAB) Commentary & Technicals💹 *None this week* Watch the following levels 👇 🟢 Upside Targets: 13.51, 13.89, 13.98 🔴 Downside Targets: 12.92, 12.705, 12.66 Investment Risk Disclaimer⚠️ This information is provided for informational and educational purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment, financial, legal, tax or accounting advice. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or advice of our firm. Futures, options, and over-the-counter derivatives involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for you. The information contained herein does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual users. Before making any investment decision, you should perform due diligence and consider seeking advice from an independent financial or investment advisor. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. We do not guarantee any outcomes regarding your use of the information provided.
CBOT:ZSF2024
by GrainStats
Solid Brazilian Rains Dampen Soybean PricesSoybean prices have been on a rollercoaster fuelled by turbulence over the last month amid elevated weather concerns, changing production yields, and geopolitical upheavals affecting prices. Winters are vital for bean traders. This paper delves into the various forces at play to guide traders and portfolio managers to navigate through the rough weather. Favourable weather combined tail winds for Soybean harvests plus weakness in destination markets are setting the ground for bearishness in bean prices. A short position in CME Soybean futures can be used to manage risk. US SOYBEAN HARVEST RESULTS Soybean harvest in the US has concluded providing a more certain supply outlook for the ongoing marketing year. Next Soybean harvest will take place in March-June in South America. Until then, current inventories will have to meet the demand. As per USDA update , Soy harvesting in the US is 90% complete. Yields for the 2023/2024 marketing year were updated to 49.9 bushels/acre in the November WASDE report compared to 49.6 bushels/acre in the October report. This resulted in an upward revision to the production and ending stocks figures as well since the consumption forecast remained unchanged. A similar update was reported by USDA in the global soybean outlook which suggested that global soybean production would be marginally higher. Despite the upward revisions, the US production figures represent a YoY decline of 4 million MT (-3.3%). The upward revision then, provides a larger buffer to account for potentially higher consumption. This is vital because bean inventory balances in the US this year are tighter than the previous two years. US Ending stocks are forecast to be 6.68 million MT compared to 7.3 million MT last year. As a result, although the upward revision expanded the buffer, it is quite narrow which could exacerbate a shortage in case consumption edges higher. SEASONAL TRENDS As highlighted by Mint in a previous paper , seasonal trends in Soybean futures are affected by harvest. During harvest, prices decline before recovering post-harvest as inventories are depleted. However, the seasonal trend is distinct during El Niño years where returns underperform the usual average, especially in December-January. BRAZIL WEATHER CONCERNS LIFTED Soybean markets are heavily influenced by weather in Brazil. Hotter than expected weather and erratic precipitation raised concerns for Brazilian crops which drove Soybean prices higher over the past month. Brazil experienced a strong heat wave last month which has a negative effect on crops. Weather effects on crop yields are most pronounced during the early stages of growth. However, weather is now set to improve as weather forecasts suggest the arrival of rains and milder temperatures ahead. Both are positive for the bean crop. Still, higher-than-expected precipitation remains a concern for the crop. As highlighted by University of Delaware , too much rainfall during the planting stage can lead to significant yield reduction. Source: USDA Brazil is the largest producer of Soybean and its harvest had been expanding rapidly over the past three years. This had previously led to oversupply concerns in global markets, exacerbated by a low demand environment in the largest soybean consumer China. Though consumption in China is forecast to increase YoY, it will not be enough to match the increase in global production (especially in Brazil) per the latest WASDE estimates . Net effect is larger ending stocks globally which is bearish for Soybean prices. EL NIÑO UPDATE In this El Niño year, unexpected weather pose significant concerns as it deviates from the anticipated impact on soybean crops outlined in our previous paper . While El Niño typically brings favourable conditions, such as increased rainfall and mild weather leading to a 3.5% higher soybean yield on average. Brazil is experiencing unexpectedly warm weather and low precipitation, diverging from the usual patterns. The unpredictability of these conditions amplifies their potential impact on prices compared to previously expected El Niño effects. Source - NOAA El Niño continues to evolve adversely as Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) has reached its highest level since 2016. Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) at Niño 3.4 is another indicator that has reached an all-time-high. Source - NOAA SIGNAL FROM SOYBEAN FUTURES MARKET Technical signals suggest a bearish trend in bean futures. Front month bean contract was on an upward trend since mid-October. The front month contract tested but failed to pass a key pivot resistance level of 1,381 USc/bushel. Price has since declined 5% and points to a reversal as the Moving Averages close to forming a bearish crossover. Asset managers switched from net short to net long positioning over the past month. However, over the last 2 weeks, asset managers have reduced net long positioning by 20k contracts. Options markets point to bearishness as participants are positioned for Soybean price to decline with a P/C ratio of 1.31 which suggests more bearish bets than bullish ones. Further, bearish bets have increased sharply over the past week with the largest increase in puts on the April monthly contract and December monthly contract. Moreover, participants have reduced call OI on the front-month December contract. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP With the overhang of negative weather in Brazil lifted, bean prices are likely to decline and pare gains from the past month due to a weak demand environment. Market metrics also suggest a bearish trend. To gain exposure, investors can deploy a short position on Soybean futures expiring in Feb ( ZSH2024 ). CME Soybean futures expiring in March require a maintenance margin of USD 2,800 (as of December 4th) and provide exposure to 5000 bushels. Entry: USc 1,336 Target: USc 1,272.25 Stop Loss: USc 1,381 Profit at Target: USD 3,187 Loss at Stop: USD 2,250 Reward/Risk: 1.42x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by mintdotfinance
1
Have you had your coffee yet?We already know that coffee beans have always been one of the most traded commodities in the world, specifically second, so why the sudden interest again? Figure 1: Summary of World Coffee In recent years, global consumption has increased at a higher rate than production due to pent-up demand. This rather large deficit in balance in the past two years puts the coffee market in an interesting spotlight. Nonetheless, arabica beans continue to be the more favored selection, with South America as the central production region, driven mainly by Brazil. Gaining Access to This Market Amongst various coffee derivatives, a coffee futures contract is the most common way to trade coffee. The 4/5 Arabica Coffee Futures (ICF) listed by Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3) Exchange is an example of such contracts. For those unfamiliar with futures contracts, it is a legal agreement to buy or sell a specified asset at a predetermined price for delivery at a specified time in the future. For the ICF contract, the asset is 100 bags of 60 kilograms filled with grade 4-25 or better Arabica coffee bean produced in Brazil that is meant to be delivered in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, or a B3 accredited warehouse. The ICO’s Grading and Classification of Green Coffee states that “coffees of the highest altitudes are denser and larger in size than those produced at lower altitudes.” Loosely speaking, larger beans with higher density are better. The grade indicators refer to the number of defects found in a 300g sample. To achieve a 4-25 grade, the coffee must be classified by B3 in accordance with its rules and regulations. This grading system is more specific to Brazil-produced beans. Other coffee-producing countries have other specifications and classifications. The Trampoline Effect Figure 2: Supply & Demand Factors Historically, the ICF future prices resemble that of a trampoline, with major support lines at the 124.55 and 103.60 levels. Let us explore some of the factors that caused these jumps previously; bear in mind that consumption of Arabica beans has been steadily increasing since the 1990s. S1: Poor weather conditions in South America in 2010 Brazil suffered from poor weather conditions and faced significant problems in meeting the expected crop yield. Large producers were also considering hoarding their stocks. The problem was further exacerbated by the backdrop of record low arabica stock levels since the 1960s. S2: Drought in Brazil in 2014 Similarly, poor weather conditions caused uncertainty in crop production for the harvest year and pushed prices up. S3: Drought and frost in Brazil 2021 The effects of drought followed by a severe wave of frost in Brazil wiped out its coffee production. This was accompanied by increased freight costs and shipment issues caused by Covid-19. S4: Harvest Conditions Evidently, weather conditions pose significant downside risks to the coffee supply. Moreover, occasional coffee leaf rust coupled with increasing demand has caused spikes in coffee prices. USD and Coffee Figure 3: ICF and DXY (Inverted) As with many commodities, coffee tends to move inversely with USD. This is especially so since most coffee contracts, like the ICF, are priced in USD. When the dollar rises, coffee becomes more expensive in non-USD terms and can cause international demand to fall, and vice versa. Figure 4: ICF and BRLUSD This relationship becomes more apparent when compared to BRLUSD. Our thought process: Local Brazilian producers and manufacturers traded these ICF contracts as a hedging tool. During the physical delivery of the beans, these market participants would then have to do a currency exchange. Consequently, the impact of BRLUSD rates would have a larger impact on them. Similar Coffee Futures Contract Figure 5: ICF and KC The two contacts’ underlying assets - arabica beans - have similar grading standards. Consequently, macroeconomic factors are likely to have similar impacts on the two contract prices. The prices between the two contracts exhibit a very strong positive correlation. We can then create a spread with ICF – Coffee C (KC) Futures Contract. Figure 6: ICF - KC ICF is quoted USD per bag for a contract size of 100 60kg bags, while KC is quoted USD cents per pound for a contract size of 37,500 lbs. We can then create a spread with ICF1!/60-KC1!/0.4536/100, by converting both contracts to the same base units. The spread setup indicates that KC generally trades at a premium compared to ICF. This could be attributed to several factors, a notable one being the higher liquidity preference investors tend to have for the KC contract, which might reflect a broader international preference. It is also worth noting that ICF requires Brazil-produced arabica beans, while KC comprises beans from other countries. This could explain the uncanny coincidence between the upside bias in spread movements (Figure 6) occurring in periods identified in Figure 2 – supply-side factors driven mainly from the Brazil side. Putting into Practice Enough has been said about coffee; you must be wondering how we then use this information to set up trades. Here are some ways for consideration. Case Study 1: Directional Driven By considering current macroeconomic factors on coffee, to express a “quieter” outlook on coffee, an investor could sell the ICF future contract (ICFH4). At the present level of 206.00, with a stop-loss above 219.00 – a conservative resistant line – it brings us a hypothetical maximum loss of 219.00-206.00 = 13.00 points. As shown in Figure 2, if ICF1! Reverts to major support line 124.55, a hypothetical gain of 206.00-124.55=81.45 points. Each ICF futures contract represents 100 bags; the value of each point move is USD100. However, as we approach the main harvest period for Brazil, May to Sep, it is of paramount importance for the investor to keep a watch for any potential hiccups that could negatively affect the harvest yield. Furthermore, this is likely to be a medium-term macro-driven strategy. Case Study 2: Spread Driven Regarding the ICF-KC spread currently trading at the upper bound, an investor with a bearish short-term view that the spread will trend downwards could sell ICF futures contract (ICFH4) and buy KC futures contracts (KCH4). At the present level of 206.00 and 169.95 for ICFH4 and KCH4, respectively. Following the formula above, the spread will be at –0.31336 points. Setting the resistance at the Fibonacci 50% ratio, we have a stop loss at -0.25, which brings us a hypothetical maximum loss of -0.25-(-0.31336) = 0.06336 points. Setting the support at the Fibonacci 38.2% ratio, we set our take profit at -0.40, which brings us a hypothetical gain of -0.31336-(-0.40) = 0.08664 points. The value of each point move in ICFH4 is USD100, while KCH4 is USD375. Conclusion There are various methods to create opportunities for investors, depending on how the investor would like to view the market or what other financial assets to pair up with coffee futures contracts. What we have covered in this article merely scrapes the tip of the iceberg, and we hope investors keep a creative mindset and explore other potential options. Disclaimer: The contents of this article are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
BMFBOVESPA:ICF1!Short
by inspirante
10
CORN - KEYLEVELS - 2DHere I am neutrally bullish, we see a (possible) double bottom, which if it breaks the next level of resistance, could bring buyers and even greater interest. On the other hand, we must take into account that this correction is normal for grain, taking into account that the situation in Ukraine has calmed down and grain exports have resumed, thus all that growth since the beginning of the war, has now been closed and completed by a correction. The price is also decreasing due to the fact that the grain harvest was done in August-September and the stocks are full, but with the time when we get closer to spring, the prices must rise again.
SKILLING:CORNLong
by sfc95
🌱 Soybean Technical Analysis (GrainStats)Soybean Fundamentals ( CBOT:ZSF2024 ) Soybean Harvest Progress 🚜➡️🌱 ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 85% Export Inspections 🚢➡️🌎 1,890,227 Metric Tons ⬇️ 735,466 Metric Tons week vs. last week ⬇️ 1,030,191 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year ⬇️ 372,103 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average Export Sales 22,259,064 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year) ⬇️ 8,264,993 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year Noteworthy News / Themes 🟢 Crush margins have re-bounded significantly due to the rally in Soybean Meal 🔴 It is still notably dry in Argentina and planting should be starting in full swing 🟢 US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down) Soybean Technicals Overall quite the sideways market with conflicting trends - one up and one down, with an inflection point coming up soon. Regardless, from a technical point of view, there is no trade in the middle of the range until any of the following levels get breached.👇 🟢 Upside Target: 13.31 🔴 Downside Targets: 12.97, 12.70
CBOT:ZSF2024
by GrainStats
KO EARNINGS CHART - SUGAR DRINKS Potential to see a decent sized exit pump. I would play it like this. IF earnings brings us down to like 43, BUY. IF earnings brings us up to 57-63, SELL. There are only two really short term trends I could find, they both trend down. The rejection trend is quite strong, I expect this stock, if it tops out, to top out around 71. But it's hard to say at this exact moment. Tomorrow we will know more. Be aware, there isn't much more room to the upside, but KO is a slow moving stock, so it could be a long way out. Long term projection is still bullish. There is support at 52-50, and you could see a movement from that number. I'd expect the biggest movement to occur, should earnings take us really negative. I would start to favor the topside.
NYSE:KO
by nicktussing77