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Agricultural Commodities

Corn: Prepare to pop 🍿Corn has continued to sell off over the last few days and is now approaching our blue buy zone from USX 496 to USX 470. The downward movement in the form of the blue wave (b) should end there. Subsequently, we expect the blue wave (c) to rise to around USX 600, making it worthwhile for prospective buyers to place long orders in our blue buy zone. Our alternative scenario, with a 25% probability, occurs if the price falls further than we expect. In this case, a break of the support level at USX 474.25 would give it significant downside momentum that buyers should take note of.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Wheat: Time for the turning point ⤴️🚀The recent downward movement has brought the wheat price into our blue trading zone and thus the minimum requirement of the current blue corrective wave (b) has been fulfilled. We expect it to go a little lower, but gradually the price should now form the end of the wave, allowing long entries. In the further sequence, we see the price rising above the resistance at USX 807.25, where we locate the high of the turquoise wave A. However, if the bears dominate and push the price lower, there is a 25% chance that the price will fall below the USX 611.25 support level, which buyers may want to keep in mind.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by MarketIntel
Soybeans poised for a drop?Soybeans have certainly caught our attention as a classic head and shoulders pattern has emerged, suggesting a possible trend reversal. This implies a potential drop equivalent to the height from the head to the neckline, taking us towards the 900 level. Could this be signalling more downside in the soybean market? The current price action is intriguing as an attempt to break the neckline was rejected and prices now hover just below the neckline. Is this the prime moment to consider a short position on soybeans? We think it's worth exploring, and here's why... As we’ve last pointed out in the “It’s Corn!” idea in March, prices of the 3 major agriculture crops, Soybean, Wheat and Corn generally move together. Back then, we were highlighting the excessive premium in Corn futures as well as the break of a technical chart pattern. Now, we're witnessing a similar tale with Soybean stepping into the spotlight. From 2019 until now, these three crops have jockeyed for position in terms of percentage gain. Currently, Soybean is in the lead, when compared to Wheat and Corn, in terms of % gain from pre-COVID times and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Another way to look at it is to compare the ratio between Soybean & Corn as well as Wheat. The Soybean/Corn ratio is now at the higher end of its 7-year range, and while the Soybean/Wheat ratio not as extreme, is still closer to its range top. Another interesting dynamic we can look into is the Natural Gas – Fertilizers – Soybean dynamic. As natural gas is a key input in fertilisers production, the spectacular fall in natural gas prices has preceded falling fertiliser prices. This in turn, impacts soybean prices as well. Hence, we see a potential downside for Soybean as it trades at a premium as compared to Corn & Wheat. We can consider a short position on the Soybean Futures at the current level of 1340 with a stop at 1450 and take profits at 1250 followed by a subsequent take profit level at 900. This will allow profits on the anticipated downward move while also considering the head and shoulders pattern's target. CME’s Soybean Futures is quoted in U.S. cents per bushel. Each 0.0025 increment equal to 12.5$. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by inspirante
SBUX to ~$118.74, try for a shortSBUX gave the perfect automatic re-entry after tagging the mid-point pivot and returning to our original entry. Following the rules and reloading would have already ensured you now have your full investment lots, risk free. With no downside other than a $0 gain potential it's a good chance SBUX goes for it's $118.74 target. Based on how it pivoted down straight from it's midpoint on the first touch take the bet and to try getting short at $118.74 with a tight stop. If it blows through the final d-target then there's more upside coming. But chances are we see a reversal from the d-target. Don't get greedy though and take profits early on that reversal to ensure lock in your risk.
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by pinochleprince18
Robusta hit the target after 2 years at $28.00I don't know about you but I prefer Arabica Coffee to Robusta. It's sweeter, it's fuller and it's not that bitter. Anyways, I sent out this trade idea in September 2021! The price broke above the Falling Wedge and there were strong signs of upside. This trade idea was a slow pace and anyone who held onto this trade, most likely would have made very little money due to the daily interest expense charges. It really does add up. And unfortunately, we traders can't treat these markets like medium to long term investors who deal with derivatives. Anyways, the target hit at $28.00 and the price looks to be consolidating here before further upside. Hopefully, a new pattern forms and we can get wired back into the trade. INTERESTING FACTS ABOUT THE ROBUSTA COFFEE COMMODITY Second Most Traded Coffee: Robusta is the second most traded type of coffee, following Arabica, in terms of global market demand and trade activity. Price Determination: Robusta coffee prices are influenced by factors such as weather conditions, crop yields, global supply and demand dynamics, currency exchange rates, and geopolitical events. Use in Blends: Robusta coffee is often used in coffee blends, alongside Arabica, to provide a stronger and more full-bodied flavor profile. Coffee Exporter Revenue: Robusta coffee exports contribute to the revenue of major coffee-producing countries such as Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, and Uganda, driving economic activity and foreign exchange earnings.
ICEEUR:RC1!Long
by Timonrosso
Geopolitical tensions lend a tailwind to wheatThe geopolitics of wheat has once again come under the spotlight. Wheat prices jumped 4%1 as news broke out that a major dam Kakhovka in southern Ukraine had been destroyed. This is not the first mishap with the dam, as both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of planning sabotage back in October 2022. In Ukraine, flooding caused by the destroyed Kakhovka dam not only poses a risk to people, but also will be a major obstruction to agricultural transport and logistics. This casts further doubts on the recently lowered forecasts for Ukraine’s wheat production and exports owing to the destruction. The dam and reservoir situated on the Dnipro River is in the middle of Ukraine’s traditional main wheat growing area and is a major source of farm irrigation. No respite in Russia’s sabre-rattling There has been no respite in Russia’s sabre-rattling surrounding the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was extended last month for an additional two months. The initiative has been instrumental in allowing Ukrainian grain flows to the world by creating a safe transit corridor. Russia has repeatedly specified the re-opening of the ammonia pipeline as a condition for renewing the grain corridor deal through the Black Sea. However, the ammonia pipeline was damaged a day before the Kakhovka dam was destroyed. This increases the risk that Russia could after all follow through on its threat and revoke the grain deal as early as next month. Net speculative positioning in wheat indicates a level of peak bearishness Market participants were caught off-guard evident from the knee-jerk reaction of wheat prices, up 4%2, intraday following the news. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positioning in wheat futures was more than 2-standard deviations below the mean3, underscoring the extent of the bearish view held among investors. Dry weather to slash Australia’s next wheat crop by a third Another catalyst fuelling wheat prices higher was an early season estimate from Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES) for a 34% slump in Australia’s wheat production in the coming season. The main reason cited by ABARES is the development of El Niño which is likely to suppress rainfall across large parts of Australia. Dry conditions and low soil moisture in the west and east coasts of Australia imply that much of the 2023-24 crop has been sown dry and will require adequate and timely rain to allow the plants to germinate. Wheat is a major winter crop in Australia with planting from April and the harvest starting in November. The expected onset of the El Niño conditions from July will likely see winter crop output fall significantly according to ABARES. According to the Bureau of Meteorology the dry weather has arrived, with the second driest May on record nationwide and the driest in Western Australia since observations began. Extreme weather conditions among top wheat suppliers to weigh on 2023/24 forecasts Across the globe, wild weather is affecting crops elsewhere, including Americas and North Africa. Europe is also being impacted by high temperatures and scant rainfall, increasing the risk of damage to the continent’s wheat crops. In France, the EU’s largest wheat producer, growing conditions in areas planted to wheat have deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks. The harvest in the largest wheat consumer China has also been affected by torrential rains, potentially boosting demand for wheat imports. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 6 June 2023 2 Bloomberg as of 6 June 2023 3 Commodity Futures Trading Commission as of 30 May 2023
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by aneekaguptaWTE
Can we have an inverse shoulder?Key Takeaways Wheat market is facing both bullish and bearish news, creating risks for traders and emphasizing the importance of risk management. Hard red winter wheat crop is shorter than both USDA projections and trade expectations, but news of overpriced wheat in the US and milling wheat from Europe entering the market created bearish sentiment. World markets, including weather conditions in key wheat-producing countries like Argentina, Australia, the US, Russia, and Canada, will play a crucial role in determining future wheat prices.
PEPPERSTONE:WHEAT
by ShukriMahadi
Wheat (World) - Short Bias; Cheap Ukrainian wheat everywhere!Sure, it is winter in the northern hemisphere so why even bother with the grains at all? ... ... Because cheap Ukrainian wheat had absolutely flooded European markets, so much so that very soon they will have to start dumping some of it into the ocean! (Right now, they are trying to air out these mountains of grain, so it wouldn't mold, but that will go only so far.) Normally, this time of the year, 55-60 ships per week get loaded with Ukrainian wheat, headed for Africa and Asia. As of last week, these numbers are down to 19 ships . Russia closed the Bosporus to Ukrainian wheat (and oil seed) shipments. As an alternative solution, Ukraine is shipping most of its harvest to the EU - mostly Poland & Germany - to load it on ships in those ports. - But guess what ... ... shipping it all to Europe AND THEN load it onto ships makes the whole proposition economically non-viable. (Well below producer cost.) So now, the endless trainloads of grains, continuously pouring into the EU, gets dumped all over EU markets (at 40%-60% discounts!) because long empty local silos are all filled to capacity. There is now zero (0) storage capacity left anywhere in Europe! (... and the endless trainloads just keep on coming.) ... making this trade - not a monster - rather a no-brainer. (Like free beer)
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
10
Sell wheat everyday 🐻🍞Who sells wheat everyday? It’s the price-reducing wheat bears who want to provide us all with a cheap basic supply of food. "Affordable wheat for all," chant they, offering reduced-price bushels of wheat to anyone who comes their way. At the moment, they are not to be restrained in their sell-off ecstasy, however, we already see the low of the blue wave (v) lying shortly before us, which means that this sell-off should soon come to its end. The wheat price is already in our green target zone here (between USX 662 and USX 472), where we expect a trend reversal. The bulls should therefore report back before too long and point to the need for higher wheat prices. It should be noted that with the end of said blue (v) wave, an overarching and relatively long-lasting correction should also come to its end. Therefore, our green highlighted target zone can serve as an excellent entry opportunity for speculations on the long side.
CBOT:ZW1!Long
by MarketIntel
1
Cotton Cash Contract - Rectangle PatternCommodity: Cotton Cash Contract Introduction: Hello everyone! Today, we'll be analyzing the Cotton Cash Contract on the daily scale traded on Pepperstone. After a clear downward trend, the contract seems to have entered a consolidation phase, possibly forming a rectangle pattern. Analysis: The rectangle pattern we're observing has been forming for around 196 days. The upper boundary of this pattern is approximately at $90, which has been tested three times so far. Meanwhile, the lower boundary is at around $77.50, with two touch points to date. Currently, the price hasn't managed to cross above the 200 EMA. However, if we observe a breakout above the upper boundary, it would place the price above the 200 EMA, potentially paving the way for a long entry. Upon a valid breakout, our projected price target would be $100.660, translating into a potential price rise of approximately 13%. Conclusion: The Cotton Cash Contract's technical analysis suggests a consolidation phase marked by a potential rectangle pattern. A breakout above the upper boundary might signal a shift to a bullish trend and could provide an opportunity for a long position. As always, be sure to conduct your own research and risk management before investing. Thank you for tuning into this analysis. Please like, share, and follow for more insights into the market. Happy trading! Best regards, Karim Subhieh
PEPPERSTONE:COTTON
by KarimSubhieh