BULLISH DIVERGENCE MAY CORN two cases of clear bullish divergence here on the 60 min chart. new contract low was made during the last session.
I expect some short covering into the beginning of the week, a bounce off the lows signaled by the bullish divergence is possible. I could also see some further pressure occur until the bounce materializes
Everything here is purely my opinion, and in no way advice or recommendations on making trades. I may or may not hold positions in the instruments I analyze.
Agriculture
CO2 Gro Inc. Breaks Year Long Trend Line BullishAscending triangle formed over January and February, bear trap with bull break on the 25th. Short term price target 0.35-0.40. Close above 0.30 signals new uptrend, as support is building above trendline formed since January 2018, lots of catalysts up coming make this a good entry point on a very bullish chart.
Fundamental analysis leads to price target of 0.83 going into 2020 with predicted revenue run rate of 10mil/year.
2019 Revenue: 10,000,000
70% Margin: 7,000,000
Overhead: -1,000,000
Op inc: 6,000,000
30% tax: -1,800,000
Net inc: 4,200,000
Shs diluted: 76,111,860
Eps: $0.055
P/e: 15
Shs value: $0.83
Something brewing with agricultureI have noticed agriculture volumes were soaring recently, maybe I am out of touch but those are the numbers I had in mind before:
Soybeans (5B), Corn (2B), Wheat (1B), Cotton (900M), Coffee (600M), Sugar (500M), Cocoa (300M)
And now they are 2 to 5 times higher, what's up? ==> Soybean Futures 10-15 Billion, Corn futures 10-15 Billion, Wheat 4-5 Billion. Those are the CME ones, the ICE sucks hard but I noticed Sugar volume at over 1.25 Bil yesterday for March contract alone. So in total basically 30 to 50 billion usd a day for the 7 big ones.
Then you got all the other ones, I saw live cattle was at like 1.5 billion yesterday (wat?), lean hogs at 500+ million...
Buahahaha even orange juice futures are over 300 million. Orange juice futures, what a meme. Who even trades that?
* Do not look at tradingview volumes they are all wrong.
How it looks on higher TF:
Corn:
Wheat:
Sugar:
Here is what I am looking at immediately:
Trump is trying to shill, buuut doesn't seem to be working.
Wheat is on a massive selloff US business has been lost to France (get rekt).
Investors are counting on a positive trade deal and I think this is why prices have been going up for the past months (same concept as stock market).
I heard artificially inflating prices with hope and presidential tweets worked just great.
I bet Trump has been postponing everything just because dumb investors kept buying in anticipation of that trade deal. No matter how much it gets postponed they just keep buying like little lemmings, and Trump keeps posting the Dow Jones gains since he started his term & what a great president he has been so he clearly has a motive.
Can't blame him, most people are too stupid to figure out any of this, he is just doing what a politician does. Maybe he's one of these "with an IQ of 130 that thinks he is at 170" guys I have been hearing about (Elon Musk too according to Charlie Munger).
What I think is either on positive news investors will take profit (buy the rumor sell the news),
and on bad news. Oh my. All this volume, they're all going to want to sell, right? I do not think we will see a short squeeze, who is shorting this? Nah. Could be wrong but from experience people are not that smart.
I really want to trade this, but this is my advice: just do not touch it. Let's wait for the big burn to pass, and then after we shall trade those.
And remember,
* When prices go up, greedy agri giants (that have traders and actively invest in this) rub their hands and make profits on the back of poor people that can barely afford food (Remember Glencore backlash after stating prices explosion 10 years ago was very profitable)
* When prices go down, the poor little farmer is suffering while governments and big players step on them and make profits (they're protesting and telling every one how angry they are right now because they feel people in power do not have a high opinion of them and that hurts their feelings - really not even kidding - as well as taxes and high gaz prices)
* When prices do not move "nothing ever improves". How do you make price never move anyway?
Prices going down should mean people in civil war countries could get to eat, sit and watch farmers go on a rampage, block roads, burn hundreds of thousands of tons of crops to reduce supply.
Rising Wedge Continuation for Soybeans?Today I am looking at SX2019. This chart looks awful similar to a rising wedge continuation pattern. With the export problem, and the amount of beans we have in the U.S., I wouldn't doubt this is possible. This idea is for chart pattern purposes only. Lets see where it goes.
Everything here is purely my opinion, and in no way advice or recommendations on making trades. I may or may not hold positions in the instruments I analyze.
L.R.
Coffee reaches accumulation levelsCoffee is trading near multi year horizontal support of 95 cents. While excessive supply and falling Brazilian real crushed the prices, there is ray of hope ahead. With price almost reaching 95 level which seems safe accumulation level, there can be gains in coming months. Farmers in Brazil are reducing coffee cultivation area will lead reduction in inventories in coming months. Price hovering near critical long term support risk to reward is very low for investing in coffee for some months.
Please feel free to leave comments and get in touch with us on:
Twitter: bit.ly/2o9ItrA
Youtube: bit.ly/2Nh8sbE
Tradingview: bit.ly/2PCbed1
Happy Trading!
Team Bitbloxx
Corn Futures? A big question mark.What is going to happen with ag commodity futures in the coming months. Where are we going?
We are getting closer to the ever so important growing season in the United States, and ag futures have been stuck in a rut. Specifically corn.
February 8th, the USDA released another one of their important reports and traders saw a decrease in stocks/yield as well as other juicy information. Overall the report was nothing to get the market too excited. After the close us traders saw yesterday, it leaves me even more curious of where these futures are going to go.
From a chart prospective, we have seen strong congestion in corn futures. Looking at the chart here for CZ9 (dec 19), you can see a possible ascending triangle. I am not completely convinced.
I am torn fundamentally with the idea of larger acres coming and then throw in the size of the corn carry out, which is lower than we have seen in a while.
Off the cusp there are a few very interesting variables at play in the ag futures world. Throw in the continuing trade negotiations and every analyst prediction is radically altered.
For now it will be interesting to sit back and watch how this unfolds.
Comments always encouraged.
Everything here is purely my opinion, and in no way advice or recommendations on making trades. I may or may not hold positions in the instruments I analyze.
L.R.
Hard Red Winter Wheat: Ascending Triangle. Lower buy opportunityThe price is trading on an irregular 1D Ascending Triangle (RSI = 55.404, MACD = 3.560, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). The supporting lines give an optimal long entry close to 500. TP = 517.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CO2 GRO Technical Analysis: 100% return over next 1-2 months Short term we are due for at least a small bounce since we finally have some signs of buying volume increasing. Note the bull volume spikes end of this week as well as back in June before the last uptrend started.
Daily MACD is just about to cross which when combined with stochastics rising out of oversoold indicate a likely uptrend beginning.
$0.15 was a major support and now is acting as significant resistance, a break above this level would 100% confirm the continuation of the megaphone chart pattern up to at least $0.30.
Easy 100% return over next 1-2 months even without any major catalysts, but this company has first revenue coming any week now as well as new research/trials being completed monthly. 8 Million market cap and projected revenue stream for 2019 is $10 million.
Soybean Meal: Long towards the neckline's Resistance.The price has completed a Head and Shoulders pattern on 1W (RSI = 45.662, MACD = -8.520, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). The neckline is within 293.90 - 341.40, a range that Soybean Meal roughly traded in for 540 days (August 2016 - February 2018). This can be used as a basis for a long term sideways strategy of selling near the Resistance and buying near the Support.
** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. **
Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
KE1!: Both targets hit. Long on the 1W support.Both TP =574.20 & 588.20 hit as the 1W Channel Up (MACD = 9.620, B/BP = 0.3280) made a 598.40 Higher High. It has since pulled back to make a Higher Low, which was most likely priced at 498.20. This commodity (Hard Red Winter Wheat) is on a very long term uptrend and we are now holding a long with TP = 569, 598 in extension.
1W Channel Down. Short.Cocoa (CC1!) is on a very aggressive long term Channel Down on 1W (RSI = 37.498, MACD = -53.170, Highs/Lows = -176.9286, B/BP = -379.8580) and is currently also trending lower on the latest 1D bearish leg, equally as aggressive (STOCH = 21.862, Williams = -90.823). This is the third leg downwards on this Channel Down and based on the previous two it should reach a Lower Low around 1735. Our TP is higher at 1800.
1D Channel Up. Long.Lean Hogs (HE1!) are on a 1D Channel Up (MACD = 2.610, Highs/Lows = 4.5150, B/BP = 9.0280) but highly overbought (RSI = 72.148, STOCHRSI = 96.420) hence in need of a technically pull back. Based on the recurring patterns this will come in the form of a consolidation/ slow down and not a standard pull back. The next Higher High and TP is projected at 70.000.
Long term setup within the 1W Channel Up.Feeder Cattle (GF1!) is trading within a long term 1W Channel Up (RSI = 63.368, B/BP = 10.8420) on a very stable pace setup (MACD = 2.490, Highs/Lows = 3.4700) that allows us for a better pattern recognition. If those recurrences are valid, the GF should seek a Higher Low near 155.000 before making a Higher High near 164.000 (target).
Pull back required on the 1W Channel Up.Live Cattle (LE1!) is trading within a long term 1W Channel Up (RSI = 60.152, ADX = 29.000, Highs/Lows = 7.0679, B/BP = 14.6880) that has recently made a Higher High with an obvious Resistance zone at 114.00 - 114.325. Being on overbought STOCHRSI, Williams and CCI, a pull back to a Higher Low (~110.000) is required to sustain a healthy uptrend, which should most likely result in a new Higher High near 116.000 (TP).
1D Lower High made. Short.Soybean Meal (ZM1!) made a Lower High on the 1W Channel Down (RSI = 39.076, MAC = -8.620, Highs/Lows = -5.800, B/BP = -25.7200) and should now reverse lower towards a new Lower Low. The first short target is 293.80 as the Lower Low extension since the last bottoms supports there. If crossed, we will continue shorting, TP = 275.20.
1W Rectangle. Support tested. Long.The Hard Red Winter Wheat is trading sideways within a long term 1W Rectangle (RSI = 51.682, Williams = -53.356, CCI = 24.4952, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) and the High Volatility (ATR = 43.4643) sustains this movement. After a successful support test, we are long with TP = 562.60.
1D Channel Down. Short.Feeder Cattle is trading within a Channel Down on 1D (MACD = -0.360, Highs/Lows = -0.0614, B/BP = -1.7440). The neutral RSI = 45.095 suggests that it is coming off a recent Lower High, which as seen on the chart was at 151.500. We have opened short and our TP is 146.900 and 144.975 in extension (we will update if needed to pursuit the extension).
LONG SUGAR @ 10.48Technical Analysis:
- Double Bottom at 10.45 from August 2015
- Oversold on daily/weekly timeframes
- Retest of 5monthSMA likely @ 11.50
Fundamental Analysis:
- Look for Brazil Real bounce against USD - this will lead to less selling for $ and more domestic demand in Brazil
- Higher lows since 1985 reflecting growing demand
- Higher energy means more domestic demand in Brazil
- El Nino Weather Pattern could damper production in Brazil and India