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The Art of Seeking Beta: Where Average Investors Beat the ProfsNasdaq 100 Index ( NASDAQ:NDX ), S&P Midcap ( SP:MID ) Since Jack Bogle created the first stock index fund in 1974, he has shown that passive investing in low-cost index mutual funds could beat active fund managers after cost. These days, there are countless of stock indexes and thousands of index funds to choose from. Picking the right market index, which I term “Seeking Beta”, is quite challenging. An average investor without stock-picking skill could still achieve impressive results. Which index he chooses would reflect his belief system and his overall assessment of the stock market. Investment returns could be vastly different. I put together three hypothetical examples to illustrate the Art of Seeking Beta. US investor Adam • Had $10,000 in cash one year ago, and invested in a Nasdaq 100 index fund; • Today his portfolio would have a market value of $11,574; • One-year return is +15.74%, excluding transaction fees. Chinese investor Bill • Had 67,000 yuan in cash one year ago, and invested in a China SSE index fund; • Today his portfolio would have a market value of 66,919 yuan; • One-year return is -0.12%, excluding transaction fees. Chinese investor Catherine • Had 67,000 yuan in cash one year ago; • She converted the fund into USD at an exchange rate of 6.70; • She immediately invested the $10,000 proceed in a Nasdaq 100 index fund; • Her portfolio would have a market value of $11,574 now; • Today, she converts the USD back to yuan at an exchange rate of 7.10; • Catherine now has 82,175 yuan; • One-year return in yuan is +22.65%, excluding transaction fees. For comparison, US hedge funds generated an average weighted return of 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, up from -0.6% in the third quarter and -6.8% in the quarter before, according to Citco's data. Adam could easily beat an average hedge fund. Catherine could rank among the Top-20 US hedge funds and the Top-5 Chinese hedge funds. This case illustrates how non-professional investors could achieve impressive results with common sense decision making: • One year ago, China’s economy was halted to a standstill amid strict Zero-Covid policy. It was not unreasonable for an investor to pick US over Chinese stock markets. • The Fed started raising rates in March while China central bank cut rates; Interest rate parity dictates that Chinese Yuan would depreciate against the Dollar; • For a retail investor, you only need to know that converting yuan deposit into dollar deposit would generate more interest income; • Each Chinese citizen is allowed to exchange for $50,000 a year; A couple with $100,000 could do some serious investing in the US market. • US stock market indexes seldom go down two years in a row; thus, after the Nasdaq experienced a 30% drawdown, investors could expect a rebound. Implications in Today’s Market You may say that looking back is 20/20 vision. But we can’t time travel back to repeat Catherine’s investing. What about looking ahead? Luckily, we are not blind-folded. Here is my observation: The S&P 500 has risen 12.2% year-to-date. However, this growth is primarily due to the AI-fueled bubble by five mega-stocks: NASDAQ:NVDA (+174%), NASDAQ:AAPL (+47%), NASDAQ:AMZN (+46%), NASDAQ:GOOG (+42%), NASDAQ:MSFT (+39%). After taking out these top-5 trillion-dollar companies, the remaining “S&P 495” has a meager return of under 3% YTD. The S&P Mid-Cap Index, which is the S&P 500 minus the top-100 stocks, has a year-to-date return of 2.74%. If a fund manager comes up with a new S&P 495 ETF, I would seriously look into it. Meanwhile, for the art of seeking beta, S&P Midcap is not a bad choice. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *The opinion above is my own. This is not a trading advice.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by JimHuangChicago
IOT repeating a move from VEEV in 2017 Very BullishSince I have been using chatGPT, I have taken a very bullish approach to all things ai. This stock is one of the leading in its sector. While charting it I noticed it had the same Chart Pattern as VEEV in 2017. Which went from 17 - 50 in 8 months. So far this stock has spent 4 months under institutional control since it hit its low and started Accumulation. Its low is around $8.50 and looks like its following this pattern almost perfectly.... there are some efficiency differences but somehow gets all the moves still in there. Ill post the Chart here for you to see. by iCantw84it 03.30.23
NYSE:IOTLong
by iCantw84it
5
QQQ OUTLOOK 06/05 - 06/09QQQ crushed it again last week, testing a breakout above the channel we drew last week. Investors will look at Apple’s press conference at WWDC 2023 (Monday at 1:00PM EST). It’s safe to say that whichever way Apple moves, NASDAQ:QQQ will follow. Technical Analysis: Although we got 2 candle bodies to close above the bullish channel, we still have yet to have a full candle body with wicks close above the trend line. I do think we will have some sort of consolidation this week. Bulls will want to see price action continue above last week’s open at 352.71. Last week’s .618 retrace is around 350, so look to see if dips will be bought at fib retraces. To the upside, we can target the gap fill above from 356.78-359.93. Bears will have control if we cannot hold a consolidation within last week’s price range. If we lose last week’s low of 346.51, another significant golden pocket retrace can be found around the monthly level at 338.19. Upside Targets: 354.65 → 356.78 → 358.97 → 359.93 → 362.54 Extended: 364.57 Downside Targets: 352.46 → 350.72 → 349.65 → 348.54 → 346.51 If we lose last week’s low: Extended: 344.57 → 341.31 → 339.60 → 338.19 → 336.67
NASDAQ:QQQ
by peterjames_6
Trend-Is-Your-Friend Bitcoin Daily Blue-Print (99.9% Accurate) Blueprint of Bitcoin on Daily. Markets are going to have their liquidity drained from the markets. I will assume Bitcoin will follow the stock market. For now the trend is down. Bitcoin got rejection off of the 50 Daily MA a few days ago, and a 13-Count sell signal as well with a 9-Count on the 4Hour that same day. (5/31-6/01) Bitcoin got broken down from a rising wedge, with negative divergences (declining VOL on rising wedge pattern) Bitcoin then formed a Head&Shoulders pattern, which we have broken down below the neckline, then making LowerHighs & LowerLows on daily. I assume we will have a sell off for the next 4 months at least. Goodluck, happytrading & #NFA
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn3237473
Continue to buy METAContinue to buy META as TikTok is likely to be banned from the Apple store! meaning new apple device will no longer have access to the app, nor will there be any updates. In Addition, there are rumors, retailers have banned together to bypass Apple's tracking restriction by creating a customer influencer database tracking centered around META technology! this technology no longer relies on cookies but on AI on places you have visited and likely to visit.
NASDAQ:METALong
by Macro-Traders-Strategies
11
Bitcoin Forecast Sunny🌞 (Clear: 100.0 %)🌞 Bitcoin Weather Report 🌞 In the bitcoin world, the weather forecast looks sunny ☀️ with a confidence level of 1.0, surpassing the baseline of 0.864. Let's dive into the analysis of the past hour's Bitcoin chart index: Open: 27149 High: 27209 Low: 27149 Volume: 5294 Close: 27169 Moving Averages: - EMA9: 27153 - EMA21: 27122 - EMA50: 27095 - EMA100: 27137 - EMA200: 27141 Technical Indicators: - RSI: 55 - Fast %K: 60 - Slow %K: 61 - Slow %D: 65 - MACD: 62 Based on these indicators, the overall outlook is positive and sunny. The price has been relatively stable, with the opening and closing values close together. The moving averages, such as EMA9, EMA21, and EMA50, have been gradually rising, indicating a bullish trend. Furthermore, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) at 55 suggests that the market is in a healthy state without being overbought or oversold. Both the fast and slow %K and %D indicate positive momentum, with values above 50. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) at 62 implies bullish momentum and a potential uptrend. Considering all these factors, the forecast indicates that the bitcoin market is likely to experience sunny weather with a positive outlook for the near term. ☀️📈 However, it's essential to remember that the cryptocurrency market can be unpredictable, so it's always wise to stay updated and monitor any potential changes. Happy investing! 🚀💰
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by ChatGPT_Bitcoin_Forecaster
Adobe key positioning for the future of A.I made graphics.TA: Looking at interest levels and daily RSI, taking a long here is sub-optimal and has risk of drawdown. However, fundamentals back upwards momentum. Buy and Hold strategy here might be wise. Pivot line may yield a double top (A.I boom -> Burst) or could initiate further upwards momentum to new ATH's in which case TP2 and TP3 are the interest levels. Fundamentals: Adobe is a global leader in software, known for its Creative Cloud suite, which includes industry-standard applications like Photoshop, Illustrator, and Premiere Pro. The company has made significant strides in integrating advanced AI technologies into its products and services, which has contributed to its impressive financial performance. A significant recent innovation is the integration of Generative AI and Adobe Firefly into Photoshop, marking a new chapter in Adobe's history. This innovation allows creators to use their natural language to prompt Photoshop to create extraordinary images with Generative Fill, a feature powered by Adobe's Firefly, a family of creative generative AI models​2​. Adobe is also committed to ensuring its AI technology is developed ethically, focusing on accountability, responsibility, and transparency. They are developing a compensation model for Adobe Stock contributors and are taking steps to prevent artists’ names from being used in Adobe’s generative AI actions​2​. In terms of their competitive advantage, Adobe's significant graphics dataset is instrumental. Adobe Stock, for instance, has a landmark dataset containing more than two million assets. Adobe has leveraged this immense dataset to train its AI technology, Adobe Sensei, to effectively detect landmarks in images submitted to Adobe Stock. This capability has been crucial for identifying and categorizing images and addressing any potential intellectual property issues with them​3​. The integration of AI in Adobe Photoshop is demonstrated by the Generative Fill feature, which is powered by Adobe Firefly. Firefly is a family of creative generative AI models that are infused into every selection feature in Photoshop, and allows users to add content, remove or replace parts of an image and extend the edges of an image using natural language prompts. Adobe Firefly, which launched six weeks prior to the announcement I found, had quickly become one of the most successful beta launches in Adobe's history, with beta users generating over 100 million assets to date​1​. For Adobe Stock, the company uses Adobe Sensei, their artificial intelligence and machine learning technology, to detect landmarks in the hundreds of thousands of images submitted by Stock contributors every week. This helps in categorizing images and identifying any potential intellectual property issues. Adobe's landmark dataset contains more than two million assets and the process of training the model to detect landmarks initially took around 7-8 days on a single-GPU machine. By switching to a multi-GPU machine and employing parallel computing, they managed to reduce the training time by 80%, bringing it down to 1-2 days without any impact on model accuracy​2​. Adobe has further enhanced the value of its graphics dataset by adopting advanced machine learning techniques. To improve the efficiency of their AI training processes, they've transitioned from a single-GPU machine to a parallel computing approach with multi-GPU machines, resulting in a dramatic 80% reduction in training time without sacrificing model accuracy​3​. Adobe's significant graphics dataset and its innovative application of AI technologies, as demonstrated in the integration of Generative AI and Adobe Firefly into Photoshop, contribute to its competitive advantage in the industry. Please note that this is a preliminary research paper and you should continue to do your own research (DYOR). Information about assets can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay updated with the most recent developments. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 (Or S1-S3) has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
NASDAQ:ADBELong
by TheBitcoinGeneration
Nvidia -> The Final ConsolidationHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis . On the weekly timeframe you can see that over the past 150 days Nvidia stock is actually up about 200% and is therefore definitely ready for a short term correction. You can also see that we do have the next previous resistance zone which is now turned support exactly at the $325 area so I am now just waiting for Nvidia to actually retest this zone and then I do expect more continuation towards the upside. On the daily timeframe you can see that Nvidia stock is currently stuck in between support and resistance - nothing too interesting for now, I am just waiting for a break below the previous support area at $375 and then I do expect Nvidia to fill the gap and retrace back to the $325 level. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by basictradingtv
45
Best AI stock for 2023 🤖 Recently, everyone is talking about AI. So which companies to buy and is it worth it now? At the moment, leader among commercial implementation of artificial intelligence is a non-public company OpenAi. Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) has made a big contribution to development of OpenAi - therefore its a direct beneficiary of spread of GPT chat. 📱 The rest of Big Tech shares: NVDIA, Tesla, Meta - also have a direct participation in development and popularization of AI. That is, now AI is about the growth of Big Tech shares, which have already grown by + 50+70% since the beginning of this year! It's a lot. For example, Apple is generally ~4-5% of its historical maximum 😱 In context of incoming data, we see that conditions in world's economies are destroying, which means that IT sector will not be able to pull market for a long time and will go into correction. Sp500 will also go down accordingly. And this means that the hype around AI will soon cool down ♨️ But, we would like to highlight one company that will be interesting in the medium term. She is engaged in development and training of AI. ➖ Of the minuses, the company has no profit. Strongly overbought by P/S ~12 (up 200% YtD). ➕ The company has no debt. There is a very promising direction. There is a revenue of $266 million. Huge stock volumes starting in 2023 📊 The next report will be June 1st. If the company makes a profit, there is a chance to grow by +50%, but then the stock will fall. ❇️ Ticker: NYSE:AI ✳️ Buy limit orders: $25, $20, $17 📈 Growth potential: up to 200% by the end of the year. 📉 Downside potential: up minus 50% by the end of summer. Write in the comments on what other assets you want to get an analysis 🔎 If you are interested in receiving promising ideas on market, dont forget subscribe to channel! In profile you will find a lot of interesting things.
NYSE:AI
by Dorado_Crypto
AI - worth a watchThis is a stock I've recently bought, based on the technical readings alone. Fundamentally it may not be worth a long term hold, but I do believe it's a good trade opportunity. As you can see we had a falling wedge and breakout on the weekly with weekly bullish divergence on the RSI. We are currently over the 18 on the week , so bias is up. However, we also just reached the weekly BB, so some resistance here is to be expected. If they can hold 12 dollars, this may get a bounce to at least 20 and if it really takes off, 34 and possibly 50. There's no volume but it does seem to be finishing a base here. I can't guarantee if this is an area to buy, but I do recommend this stock as a watch in 2023.
NYSE:AILong
by the_sunship
14
2023.6.1 Will the stock price of C3.ai weaken in three weeks?2023.6.1 Will the stock price of C3.ai weaken in three weeks? This chart shows the weekly candle chart of C3. ai's stock from its listing at the end of 2020 until now. The graph overlays the lines between the highs and lows of the past two years, the lines between the lows and lows, and the horizontal line of the strongest pressure level closest to the current stock price! As shown in the figure, the stock price of C3.ai began to rise in early May 2023 and has been closing positive for 5 consecutive weeks. After breaking through multiple pressure levels, it showed a standard form of releasing momentum by jumping short and opening high this week! In the next three weeks, there is a high probability that the rise of C3.ai will come to an end, retreat from the starting position of bearish positions in early April of this year, and then choose a new direction to break through!
NYSE:AI
by Think_More
SNOW pulls bak on Earnings Discount SaleSNOW on the daily chart pulled back from decent earnings to in a massive bearish candle down into its intermediate-term fair value zone near to the mean anchored VWAP and the POC line of the volume profile. It is entirely possible that many traders sold SNOW at its highs when they got FOMO over NVDA and needed to free capital to get more cash in their accounts after buying NVDA . This could have easily helped SNOW go down despite decent earnings. No matter if SNOW is on sale, I will buy it now setting a stop loss @ $145.00 and watch for a Fibonacci-style retracement halfway back to the Pirvot high from which it fell for a first the target of $ 170, a second of $180 ( one third of the position for each) and the final at $170. In the meanwhile, I have a position on NVDA to play a possible drop.
NYSE:SNOW
by AwesomeAvani
Bitcoin Forecast Sunny🌞 (Clear: 100.0 %)🌞 Bitcoin Weather Report 🌞 Current Bitcoin Chart Index (Past Hour): Open: 26900 📈 High: 26973 📈 Low: 26826 📉 Volume: 18950 📊 Close: 26929 📈 ema9: 27057 📈 ema21: 27248 📈 ema50: 27429 📈 ema100: 27385 📈 ema200: 27240 📈 rsi: 27 📉 fast_k: 12 📉 slow_k: 13 📉 slow_d: 16 📉 macd: -259 📉 🔍 Analysis: Based on the Bitcoin chart index for the past hour, we observe a generally positive trend. The opening and closing prices have both shown an upward movement, indicating potential bullish sentiment. The exponential moving averages (ema9, ema21, ema50, ema100, and ema200) are all trending upwards, further supporting the positive outlook. The volume is moderate, indicating a healthy level of market activity. However, it's important to note that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 27, which suggests some bearish pressure. The fast_k, slow_k, and slow_d indicators also indicate a decline in momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is negative, signifying a potential bearish signal. ⚖️ Conclusion: Considering the overall picture, while there are some signs of bearish pressure, the positive indicators outweigh the negative ones. Therefore, with a confidence level of 1.0 (greater than the baseline of 0.864), the weather in the Bitcoin world is forecasted to be sunny ☀️. However, it's essential to stay vigilant and monitor the market closely, as conditions can change rapidly in the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by ChatGPT_Bitcoin_Forecaster
Why is no one talking about this in nvdia shares? 😤 Recently, everyone is talking about AI. This irection is really promising and this is the future. But stock prices associated with this direction are already highly inflated. For example, take NVDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ). Multiplier P/E ~208 (at a rate of 20-30). Multiplier P/S ~ 37 (at a rate of 3-5). Now people don't care that they are buying a business at 10 times the normal value. But it will take a little time and there will be sobering. Now NVDIA stock is at an all-time high. Beginners love to buy on highs. When someone is buying, someone is selling. And now large funds and insiders are selling the stock for millions of dollars. The stock is heavily overbought and no longer has much potential for growth, in the coming months it will fall. Now AI is about the growth of Big Tech shares, which have already grown by + 50+70% since the beginning of this year! It's a lot. For example, Apple is generally ~4-5% of its historical maximum 😱 In context of incoming data, we see that conditions in world's economies are destroying, which means that IT sector will not be able to pull market for a long time and will go into correction. Sp500 will also go down accordingly. And this means that the hype around AI will soon cool down ♨️ Don't buy shares now.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Dorado_Crypto
AI - Rising Trend Channel [MID TERM]🔹AI shows strong development within a rising trend channel in the medium long term. 🔹AI has broken a resistance level and given a positive signal for the long-term trading range. 🔹There is no resistance in the price chart and further rise is indicated. 🔹In case of a negative reaction, the stock has support at approximately 34. 🔹RSI is above 70 after a good price increase the past weeks. 🔹Overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NYSE:AI
by wavepoint99
Artificial Intelligence (AI) play on the verge of a breakout- Increasing volume/accumulation - Hot sector (AI) - Upcoming catalysts VANCOUVER, BC, May 12, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Nextgen Food Robotics (NEO: NGRB OTC: NGRBF) is pleased to announce that it is making significant progress on the development of its proprietary “Lily” app. Nextgen anticipates that the app will be completed in the next 60 days and at that time will be potentially connected to 10,000 restaurants and grocery stores. Nextgen Food Robotics AI powered super app codenamed "Lily" could revolutionize the way people order food and grocery shop. "Lily" uses natural language processing to create humanlike conversational dialogue allowing the app to learn users behavior. "Lily" is being built with its own AI language processor and will not be required to link into ChatGpt for natural language implementation or data points.
NEO:NGRBLong
by wealth_bakery