$NVDA top in. Bottom between $25-40As you can see from the chart, NASDAQ:NVDA formed a double top at the highs and has started it's bear market.
I think from here we're going to see a move down that goes lower than what most people expect will happen.
I've seen a lot of people sharing that they want to bid the $72 region, which would make sense if this was a normal correction, however, I think this is a larger market wide panic and that price will go lower than what most people expect.
I think price is likely to hit the target in the bottom box by the end of 2025.
Let's see what happens over the coming months.
AI
AMD Wendy's SetupStock has dropped almost 40% from it's ATH into a pennant into earnings. Short sellers would be insane not to cover on any good news or if sentiment just stops getting worse. Tech as a whole looks due for a bounce, AMD was a bottom indicator in 2023, could do it again in 2024.
Upside price targets are 155, if through then 200
Stop loss = breakdown of the pennant
Nvidia is down 14% in Monday's Trading Entering Acquisition ZoneNvidia, a leading player in the semiconductor and AI sectors, has been making waves in 2024 with a series of strategic acquisitions. Despite facing increasing regulatory scrutiny and a cooling trend in AI mergers and acquisitions (M&A), the company is positioning itself for what could be its most acquisitive year yet. However, Nvidia's aggressive expansion strategy has not come without its challenges, reflected in its recent stock performance.
Nvidia's Acquisition Strategy in 2024
As of mid-2024, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has announced four acquisition deals, matching its total for the entire year of 2020. This activity underscores the company's commitment to bolstering its capabilities and expanding its influence in the AI and semiconductor industries. Some of the notable acquisitions include:
1. Run:ai: In April, Nvidia agreed to acquire this Israeli firm known for its technology that enhances GPU efficiency. However, the deal has yet to close due to regulatory scrutiny from the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).
2. Deci AI: Another Israeli startup, Deci AI, was acquired in May for $300 million. Deci AI provides tools for developers to build AI models, further strengthening Nvidia's position in the AI ecosystem.
These acquisitions highlight Nvidia's strategy to integrate advanced technologies and enhance its product offerings, especially in the AI domain. However, the company’s rapid expansion has attracted the attention of regulators.
Regulatory Hurdles and Market Reactions
Nvidia's acquisition spree is occurring under the watchful eyes of regulators. The DOJ and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) are investigating Nvidia, along with Microsoft and OpenAI, for potential antitrust violations. This scrutiny has delayed some of Nvidia's deals, including the acquisition of Run:ai, reflecting broader concerns about market concentration in the rapidly growing AI sector.
The regulatory environment is becoming increasingly challenging for large tech companies. Nvidia's past experience with regulatory interference is notable, particularly the failed $40 billion acquisition of ARM from SoftBank in 2020, which was terminated in February 2022 due to regulatory hurdles. This history underscores the complexities and risks associated with large-scale acquisitions in the tech industry.
Market Performance and Investor Sentiment
Amid these regulatory challenges, Nvidia's stock has experienced significant volatility. Recently, Nvidia shares plummeted 14% in Monday's trading session, marking a substantial decline that brought the stock price to sub-$100 levels. This drop is part of a broader trend affecting the semiconductor sector, with other major players like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Intel also seeing substantial declines.
The market reaction reflects investor concerns over regulatory risks and the overall health of the tech sector. The semiconductor industry is particularly sensitive to geopolitical tensions, trade policies, and macroeconomic factors, all of which have contributed to recent market volatility.
Opportunities and Risks
Despite these challenges, Nvidia remains a powerhouse in the AI and semiconductor industries. The company's acquisitions aim to enhance its technological capabilities and maintain its competitive edge. For instance, the integration of Run:ai's technology could significantly improve GPU efficiency, while Deci AI's tools could streamline the development of AI models, both of which are crucial for Nvidia's growth strategy.
Technical Outlook
At present, Nvidia stock ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has declined by 10.61% and is trading above both the 50-day and 100-day Moving Averages (MAs). The stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 34, placing it within the oversold territory. Concurrently, the broader stock indexes and the cryptocurrency market are undergoing a downturn, with Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) plummeting to $50k, underscoring the market's volatility.
This situation has resulted in a 1 billion-dollar liquidation of trades today. Prior to engaging in any stock transactions today, it is prudent to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has decreased by -2.29, indicating a pronounced bearish divergence.
Conclusion
Nvidia's aggressive acquisition strategy in 2024 reflects its ambition to dominate the AI and semiconductor sectors. While the company is navigating a complex regulatory environment and market volatility, its recent deals highlight its commitment to innovation and growth. Investors and industry observers will be closely watching Nvidia's next moves, especially as it approaches its earnings announcement on August 28. Despite the challenges, Nvidia's strategic acquisitions and technological advancements position it well for future opportunities in the dynamic and competitive tech landscape.
Is MSFT Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?MSFT is one of the few tech stocks which trades close to all-time highs, seemingly oblivious to the brutal valuation reset that swept through the sector
In the most recent quarter, MSFT delivered strong results when factoring in the tough macro environment. MSFT grew revenues by 7% (10% constant currency) and earnings per share by 10% (14% constant currency) - two achievements not necessarily typically seen under difficult economic circumstances.
MSFT generated $8.64 billion of that operating income from its productivity and business processes segment, which houses its Office 365 product suite among others. As to be expected, LinkedIn revenue growth came in light at just 8%, a reflection of lower hiring demand.
MSFT generated another $9.4 billion in operating income from its intelligent cloud segment. Azure grew at a 27% clip, far surpassing the 16% growth seen at competitor Amazon Web Services
Investors have been cautious on the ever-valuable cloud business ever since the cloud titans all revealed cloud optimization efforts undertaken by its customers. On the conference call, management implied that they may see easing headwinds as they pass the anniversary of those optimization efforts, stating that “at some point, workloads just can't be optimized much further.” It is possible that MSFT’s partnership with ChatGPT’s creator OpenAI has something to do with that, as management noted that while they do not consolidate any operating losses due to them holding a minority equity interest, they do indeed recognize revenues generated from OpenAI using their cloud services. The other cloud titans did not offer the same bullish commentary surrounding the end of cloud optimization.
MSFT continued to see headwinds from its more personal computing segment, which saw revenues decline by 9% though still managed to generate $4.24 billion in operating income. At some point the comps should become easier here, but that may still be a couple of quarters away.
MSFT ended the quarter with $104.5 billion in cash versus $48.2 billion in debt. I note that the company also has another $9.4 billion in equity investments (the announced $10 billion investment in OpenAI is set to take place in parts throughout the year).
The company continues to pay a growing dividend and conducted $5.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter. It is not too often that one can get long term innovation and have the majority of free cash flow returned to shareholders as well.
Looking ahead, management has noted that overall growth may struggle due to the prior year’s quarter being a tough comp, with that being their “largest commercial bookings quarter ever with a material volume of large multiyear commitments.” Management did, however, guide for up to 27% in Azure growth, which seems to imply that the bottom for that segment may be very near if not already passed. Investors may be worried about how ongoing tech layoffs may impact Office 365 growth, but management appeared unfazed by this risk, citing that they continue to see strong demand for their product suites.
MSFT continues to show why it is a favorite tech stock in growth allocations, as it has shown resilient growth in the face of tough macro. The strong fundamentals have helped the stock sustain a premium valuation multiple, as the stock recently traded hands at just under 35x earnings.
Valuation remains the most obvious risk with that stock trading something between 50% and 100% higher than GOOGL depending on how many adjustments applied to the latter. With the stock trading so richly on present earnings, the stock could go nowhere for 7-10 years and still be trading at around 15x earnings at that time. Unless MSFT manages to sustain double-digit earnings longer than consensus, the stock will likely need to sustain a rich multiple in order to beat the market index. I note that this risk does not appear as large at the aforementioned mega-cap peers due to not just lower valuations but also due to MSFT appearing to already be operationally efficient with operating margins in excess of 40%. Another risk is that of potential disruption to its enterprise tech business. Wall Street appears to view the stock as being the strongest operator in any of its competing markets, but I do not share such views. In particular, I view competition from the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD),and GOOGL’s productivity suite as being underestimated risks. It is possible that MSFT is about to face long- term disruption just as its growth story is decelerating - which would have a catastrophic impact on multiples. Due to the near term upside from OpenAI, MSFT hit ATH and now its in pullback mode, I took huge profit and waiting for more confirmation
C3.AI This Golden Cross is preparing something big.It's been almost 3 months since we last looked into C3.ai (AI) where (May 10, see chart below) we called for a but that easily hit its 29.00 Target:
The price rose even higher but now finds itself considerably lower (as with the rest of the market) within the long-term Channel Down. Last month though, the stock formed its first 1D Golden Cross since February 23 2023, which may be an early indication of a bullish break-out.
That early 2023 (Jan - Apr) fractal shows that after the post-1D Golden Cross peak, the correction that was completed on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level gave way to a strong rebound towards the 1.5 Fib extension. As a result, our medium-term Target on this is $42.00.
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Nvidia Adds $330 Billion in a Single DayNvidia's stock valuation skyrocketed, adding $330 billion in a single day, surpassing its prior record gain of $277 billion.
This increase was fueled by Microsoft announcing a 60% increase in AI spending for 2024, totaling $69 billion.
Consequently, Nvidia's stock price surged nearly 13%, elevating its market cap to $2.88 trillion and making it the third-most valuable company globally, behind Apple and Microsoft.
Despite this record-setting performance, Nvidia faced a tumultuous July, with its stock price decreasing by 16% throughout the month, closing down 5% despite a partial recovery.
This decline reflected broader market volatility, as seen in the Nasdaq’s 1.5% drop. On Tuesday, Nvidia's shares dipped 7%, testing the crucial $100 support level.
However, the positive response to Microsoft's investment suggests Nvidia might maintain its momentum above this critical threshold.
Last month, the stock hit multiple highs, peaking at $140 on June 20, indicating strong market confidence. For Nvidia to surpass this record high, its stock would need an additional 20% gain.
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ZOOM: $66 | From Video to an Ai Assistant somehowwe all know zoom DOMINATED during the the COVID Breakout
yet when the Vaccine was rolled out by WHO and Fauci it discounted quickly to rollback to where it came from
Google Meeting is killing it Microsoft meeting is getting a piece of the pie
the ai angle in zoom iQ may take a while for ENTERPRISE players to digest
to put it simply its a business to business model
that reminds me of Business INtelligence of Msoft or
EXECUTIVE DASHBOARD appls back in 2005ish
it's a different flavor of BARD or HER that Robot Assistant movie
needs a great PACKAGER to roll this out
if this pans out.. this can be YUUUUGE!
ZOOM iQ = a glorified Executive Assistant that summarizes meetings.
AbCellera: $15 | a Gem under the radar should be the next crispr or illumina ... it supplies stuff to MODERNA
it could be the secret sauce in pre diagnotics or preventing diseases before they become serious
currently winding down and allocation of shares to serious players and strong hands with conviction in the Ai Tech Cum Biologics
Microsoft Earnings Raise Fears Over AI Spending. Bubble Go Pop?Playing catch-up is big among the highflyers of technology as the Magnificent Seven club races to slurp up AI demand. But is AI spending going to lead to AI bonanza? It’s not that straightforward.
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) reported its earnings update for the spring quarter Tuesday after the closing bell. But it failed to appease investors who seem to be waking up to a reality where the billions of dollars jammed into artificial intelligence might not that easily convert into coveted profits.
The AI-optimistic large-cap behemoth has spent piles of cash on advancing its artificial-intelligence capabilities without much to show for it. Markets punished the stock in after-hours trading with shares diving as deep as 8% — a drop that later recovered but still lingered under the flatline.
“Throw Some AI in There, They’ll Love It”
You know how much CEOs love to throw AI in their earnings calls? Microsoft boss Satya Nadella praised the company’s AI efforts in the call with shareholders but even the overuse of AI couldn’t bring the feelgood factor.
Microsoft’s AI-powered cloud business, Azure, grew 29% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations and undershooting the 31% growth in the previous quarter. The company rushed to patch it up and assuage spooked investors, saying the slowdown was due in part to demand for AI running ahead of capacity.
Microsoft: Throws $55.7 billion in capital expenditures.
AI: * giggles, burps * "Thanks for the cash."
For the past three months — the company’s fiscal fourth quarter — Microsoft saw its capital expenditures balloon by almost 80% year-over-year to $19 billion. Moreover, for fiscal 2024, total capital expenditures, or how much the company spent on new stuff, hit $55.7 billion — a figure that is likely to get surpassed next year as Microsoft projects increased spending on AI.
Microsoft’s quarterly results are the latest example, after Google’s (ticker: GOOGL ) flop of an earnings report and Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA ) profit-squeezing quarter , of Big Tech’s lofty aspirations when it comes to AI. And the pushback reaction from investors shows that expectations are so high, it’s near-impossible to beat them.
Big Tech is racing to build out the infrastructure layer that will allow AI to scale so it can start churning out a profit. But the going has recently gotten tough. The Magnificent Seven club of tech mainstays washed out more than $1.5 trillion from its collective market value in the past three weeks.
The question that lingers on investors’ minds right now is how long can markets stay patient before they see revenue growth from AI materialize?
Let Us Know Your Thoughts!
With all the hype around AI, do you see a bubble in the works? Or justified no-froth, no-nonsense valuations? Share your thoughts below!
BOUNCE INCOMING!!This looks like a great area to anticipate a bounce.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
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VIX 20 years Later !What will fuel this next Bull Market?
#AI and exponential gains in productivity seem like a fair bet.
The technology won't manifest properly in the next few years of course.
But the speculation and new companies will.
20 years ago we saw the trendline of the #VIX break
coming out of 9/11 and right around the time of the Iraq war
Military spending, Lowering of rates, a Housing boom , and the rise of Google and culminating in the iphone.
Seems eerily similar to the current #macro environment
SingularityNET / AGIX & AISingularityNET price today is $0.2 with a 24hour trading volume of 100 million dollar. AGIX price is up 8% in the last 24 hours and 330% up since last two weeks
but what is SingularityNET and why its pumping this hard? It is a blockchain powered platform that allows anybody to easily create, share, and monetize AI services through the SingularityNET marketplace, users can browse, test and purchase a huge variety of AI services using the platform’s native utility token AGIX. Moreover, the marketplace represents an outlet AI developers can use to publish and sell their AI tools, and easily track their performance.
SingularityNET was founded by Dr. Ben Goertzel in addition to Simone Giacomelli and Dr. David Hanson. the platform was first announced in 2017 and completed an initial coin offering in December the same year, raising $36 million in just one minute because no one know AI better than Dr.Goertzel also Jack Dorsey is one of the investors as well.
Agix and Fet pumped after Microsoft announced plans to invest in OpenA and Agix trading volume has surged 550% after that
0.17 was a good opportunity for scalpers to long and now its one the most important support levels. If you managed to buy it at 0.07$ take some profit too
C3ai unveils generative AI for government organizationsC3ai Inc. (NYSE: AI), a prominent developer of artificial intelligence tools, announced the launch of a generative AI application specifically tailored for government organizations on Monday. This move targets a significant growth area within the AI sector, where there is substantial interest from government entities actively investing in AI-driven tools.
The newly launched application is designed to serve federal and state governments, providing capabilities to process extensive data related to health, education, and employment programs. It offers functionalities such as answering inquiries about financial aid and managing other types of queries from millions of users, potentially transforming the efficiency and accessibility of government services.
Technical analysis of C3ai Inc. (NYSE: AI)
Let's evaluate the potential trading opportunities based on the current technical setup of C3ai's stock:
Timeframe : Daily (D1)
Current trend : The stock is currently in an uptrend
Resistance level : 30.80 USD
Support level : 29.50 USD
Potential downtrend target : Should the stock enter a downtrend, the downside target could be set at 26.00 USD
Short-term target : If the uptrend persists and the stock breaches the resistance at 30.80 USD, a short-term target could be 38.00 USD
Medium-term target : With sustained upward momentum, the stock price might rise to 48.00 USD
Investors should closely monitor C3ai's performance, especially considering the strategic expansion into the government sector with its new generative AI application. This development could significantly enhance the company's growth prospects and impact its stock performance.
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Earnings Season to Show if Big Tech Stocks Can Justify AI HypeUpper echelon of tech realm is expected to report the most profits since early 2022 as the bar is set high thanks to the big promise of artificial intelligence.
Earnings season is about to hit fever pitch with the biggest names in the corporate world getting ready to deliver spring-quarter financial updates. The bar is set high thanks to the promise of artificial intelligence to rewire how businesses operate, spend and make money.
How high exactly? All S&P 500 companies collectively are predicted to knock out the biggest increase in profits in more than two years — year-on-year earnings growth is pinned at 8.8% for the quarter ended June, the highest since the first quarter of 2022.
Froth or Not?
Stakes are high. The upcoming string of earnings data will show whether big tech high-flyers can justify the AI hype that has propelled stocks to record after record . The S&P 500 has notched more than 36 all-time closing highs this year and is sitting on gains of more than 18% since it started trading in January.
The Big Dogs
Apparently, optimism is sweeping left and right, lifting valuations of companies big and small. A handful of them have been singled out as the biggest group of winners. And — you guessed it — they’re all involved in the AI narrative.
Chipmaking giant Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) and a clique of big tech heavyweights are lined up to show if their earnings and revenue guidance will catch up to the sky-high valuations. Nvidia has more than doubled this year, soaring above $3 trillion in market value. Briefly, it became the world’s largest company . Its peers Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ), Facebook parent Meta (ticker: META ), Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL ) have rocketed to records this year as well.
Heavy Concentration
The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 fill up about 37% of its worth, which presently gravitates toward $48 trillion. This said, these 10 titans of capitalism contribute 24% to the broad-based index’s earnings — the highest ratio since 1990.
To keep going with the numbers, before we dive into what’s coming over the next few weeks, the S&P 500 companies are trading at 21.4 times their projected earnings over the next 12 months. For comparison, the average multiple for a five-year stretch is 19.7.
It gets even more interesting when you zoom in and double click on five tech titans — Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon. Their price/earnings multiples have ballooned to an average of 34 times projections, up from 28 times. The AI bellwether, Nvidia, has soared to 41 times, from 24 times in January.
Against that backdrop, analysts are quick to point out that a correction in stock prices may loom large if these corporate giants can’t beat out their earnings projections. Is there room for disappointment?
Stacked Up Against Expectations
Let’s go around the table and see what’s coming over the next few weeks. We’ll keep it tight so we’ll only look into the elite Magnificent Seven club .
July 23
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT )
Year-to-date performance: 23%
Revenue guidance: $64 billion
Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL )
Year-to-date performance: 33%
Revenue expectations: $79 billion
Tesla (ticker: TSLA )
Year-to-date performance: 0% ( find out the reasons ).
Revenue expectations: $20.16 billion
July 31
Meta (ticker: META )
Year-to-date performance: 44%
Revenue guidance: $36.5 billion to $39 billion
August 1
Apple (ticker: AAPL )
Year-to-date performance: 24%
Revenue expectations: $84 billion
Amazon (ticker: AMZN ) (date unconfirmed)
Year-to-date performance: 30%
Revenue guidance: $144 billion to $149 billion
August 21
Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ) (date unconfirmed)
Year-to-date performance: 168%
Revenue guidance: $28 billion
Let's Hear from You!
Are we going to see another blockbuster quarter of record revenue and profits? Or is the AI hype overblown and could this mean big tech may let us down? Share your thoughts below!
TESLA PULLBACK Then Moon Mission!After a rejection from the weekly and daily levels, a pull back to $235 (Daily Level) or $202 (Demand Zone) is likely before higher prices.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NVDA Looks Good For Higher PricesLooking good for higher now that we are trading above the POC. We need to flip the VWAP into support next to really aim for the VAH (White Line).
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.