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American Airlines, is 2021 a good year to invest? American Airline (AAL) has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, as have all the other airlines, which has subsequently destroyed the demand for air travel as people were forced into lockdown. AAL stock went from $29.32 high in February down to $8.23 low in May. Since then, the price has been fluctuating, bouncing up only slightly to the current level of $15.68. This stock is untouchable for investors at the moment, despite the progress being made with the vaccine and promises that demand will return to sustainable levels during summer 2021. The oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, sold his stock in AAL in Spring in 2020. Despite coining the phrase ‘Be greedy, when the others are fearful’, the famous long-term investor has changed his views regarding the future of the airlines. But is 2021 a better year to buy this stock? Financial Factors First, let us look at the company’s financials. American Airlines, which has a $9.55 billion market cap, had troubles even before the pandemic. While operating around 700 flights per day into 50 different countries, the company already had revenues falling annually by 9%. According to the Wall Street Journal, as additional travel restrictions were put during summer, AAL’s third-quarter revenue plummeted by 73% year-on-year, reporting $2.4 billion in net losses. Despite some people still travelling during the Christmas period, the demand level is nowhere near enough and the airline continues to burn through cash daily to stay afloat. Based on the projection of the International Air Transport Association, total losses for the airline industry will be almost $40 billion in 2021 and a rebound in air travel demand will only be in 2024. The projections from the Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs put the stock price in the range of $15-$20, advising to stay away from investing more until the turnaround in the pandemic. Technical Analysis Based on the chart analysis of AAL, price action broke a strong support level of $25 during the start of the pandemic, this level will now act as a strong resistance and will take significant buying pressure to overcome. Price has been below the 200SMA since April 2018 and 50SMA crossed below the 200SMA, known as the Death Cross, in December 2018, further signalling the downtrend’s strength. A symmetrical triangle pattern has formed once the stock hit the low of $8.23, a warning of potential continuation lower in the coming months. The lowest level for this stock was after the 2008 crash at $1.42, so there is plenty of room to go lower. Brokerage firms report increased buying of airline stocks since they became cheap enough to buy and hold for the long-term, stopping AAL from plunging lower so far. But the situation may change drastically if air travel remains restricted. So, should I invest now? The eyes of investors are on the spring and summer season. Reports from the World Health Organization suggest that lockdowns will ease once warm weather arrives in March and April. Further developments of the vaccine and its distribution bring hope to see air travel demand improve. As American Airlines announced a strategic alliance with JetBlue on January 12, investors are more optimistic that such measures will keep the stock from collapsing. For an average investor with limited capital investing in this stock right now is dangerous as the pandemic continues to batter air travel, Until the stock finds a way to close at least above $25, there is a real danger of falling into a bull trap. Best to wait until Spring to evaluate potential entry into this stock. Big banks and Hedge Funds will, of course, continue to hold AAL stock long-haul, because they can afford it. But should there be another hit in the USA and worsening conditions of the pandemic, they will immediately sell it. Important to remember, that this company is protected by the US government is unlikely to sink completely. Additional bailouts will be ready if needed. We shall know more after Biden’s inauguration on January 20 and see how his administration plans to support the airline's industry. If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments! Good Luck and Stay Healthy!
NASDAQ:AAL
by Antonio_trader
5
Is United Airlines Taxiing for Takeoff?United Airlines has gone almost nowhere for two months. But now the chart may be lining up for a rally as earnings approach. UAL exploded higher on November 9 when Pfizer’s vaccine news hit. It continued upward the following month before retreating in late December. Since then, the airline has stabilized between $42 and $44. It’s also holding support at its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). The 21-day exponential moving average (EMA) was resistance during that time -- until the last two sessions when UAL closed above it. That could signal the trend is turning bullish again. Also notice the rounded bottom between December 21 and this week. Finally, UAL’s Bollinger Band Width is the narrowest since late October. Earnings are next Thursday afternoon. Can prices stay in this super tight range before the news, or will buyers sneak in early? TradeStation is a pioneer in the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options, futures and cryptocurrencies. See our Overview for more.
NASDAQ:UALLong
by TradeStation
1
WHAT HAPPEND WITH THE PRICE OF ? ( TUI1 ) 3 weeks ago I uploaded a trading idea of TUI1 discussing the likelihood of a potential breakout. First, I would like to give out my apologies, I have not shared enough information involving this trade which could have led to a lot of confusion. What really happend On the 7'th of January TUI Publicly announced the agreement and approval of a capital restructuring plan, Including the dilution of 508,978,534 new shares among existing shareholders, offering 25 new shares for every 29 existing ones at 1.07 euros each. With this share dilution, TUI was able to raise over 500 million Euros resetting the price from 4.65 to 3.32 a share. Everybody who held TUI at the time of the share dilution has the ability to sign up until the 20th of january. The New Shares will be distributed on the 29th of January. I hope this clarifies the whole situation around TUI, Wish yall an amazing start of 2021 And like to see you again
XETR:TUI1
by TheCryptoCorner
1
AAL Retracement into Long?AAL broke out nicely from the previous resistance (now support) level on a long bullish run. Price has retraced and formed a descending triangle. Lots of confluence to support a long here. With a TP a the previous high, just pre-gap. My entry at this stage would give me a 72% gain at a Risk to Reward of 7 to 1. A trade with this R:R ratio means that you could have 6 losing trades in a row, and still make money. These are the kinds of quality trades you should be taking. I'll be posting more trade ideas week on week. Follow me for more.
NASDAQ:AALLong
by MSI_JAL26
Airline Companies Preparing For "Takeoff"The aviation industry supports more than 65 million jobs around the world and $2.7 trillion in world economic activity (3.6% of global gross domestic product). By 2036, it is expected that aviation will generate $5.7 trillion in GDP and the number of air travelers is expected to grow to 8.2 billion from 4.4 billion air travelers in 2018. It is clear the importance of aviation in the tourism industry, which is one of the world’s largest industries, but it also provides an immeasurable contribution to global trade, business, and economic development. Between 2009 and 2017, revenue in the global aviation industry grew at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of around 5.9%, reaching $754 billion in 2017. Pre COVID-19, Commercial airlines were expected to generate a combined revenue of $872 billion for 2020. In early April, worldwide flights were down almost 80%, making the COVID-19 the worst impact in the airline industry. Approximately $50 billion of international passenger revenue was lost from Jan to Apr 2020. According to ICAO, airlines may be faced with 1.5 billion fewer international air travelers this year.
XETR:TUI1Long
by TheCryptoCorner
Jets with good risk reward ratioThis is one of the industries mostly beaten down by pandemic. As we have now positive news about vaccination I think this industry due upside. Another bullish sign as per technical 20MA cross above 50MA and 50M above 200MA. Most of the airline stock ticker has a similar chart pattern. As per chat setup, this has a good risk-reward ratio. Play strategy - Buy around 22.06 which is the nearest support. Stop-loss 20.56. - Potential target 29.25 where the gap - P:L = 32:6
AMEX:JETSLong
by fqalogtrader
JETS flagging on new channelTechnical Analysis On november 24th, JETS broke out above its june highs, and consolidated (orange square), demonstrating a successful break out of the channel. Now it shows a flag, showing potential for more upside. There is a strong resistance level at $27.7; at this point I would expect a pullback, to ultimately reach the top of the gap around $30. I am using a stop under the 10sma to take partial profits. Fundamental Analysis The market is a forward looking mechanism, with the path of the recovery setting a potential comeback for Airlines for Spring; JETS is fundamentally undervalued right now.
AMEX:JETSLong
by dorfmanmaster
AAL - Got Any More Of That Stimulus Yet?If you check back in with our previous charts, you'll see we have been accumulating AAL between $11.50-$14.00 for a while now. The airlines are still patiently waiting for additional aid from Congress which will be a huge move up for the whole sector. While there has been support on both sides for further stimulus, there's still certain disagreements that have led to an elongated standstill forcing airlines to cut costs where it can (furloughing employees, cutting flight paths, leaving cities, etc.). Will still say this, more people are definitely flying now than the previous months. This past weekend alone, TSA said it screened more than 3 million travelers at US airports (1,047,934 on just Sunday), which made it the busiest travel day since the pandemic started. While this is good news, these are numbers are still 57% below 2019 levels, but it's a start. TA: At the moment $AAL is hitting resistance at 3 major levels for us: Our down trendline in purple since October 2018, The daily 200EMA, and .618 Fib level. A break in these levels would bullish and we would look for the new support resistance after this. Updated Targets: 1. $17.20 2. $19.36 3. $22.00 Watching closely, and will come back with more updates. Give us a follow and shoot us a Like for more analysis updates. Cheers! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. I am an amateur investor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, or stock picks, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on here, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise
NASDAQ:AALLong
by MannyLo
1