GBPUSD: As We Approach A Trend Rotation, Will the Bulls Protect?Usually I share EURUSD ideas with you guys, but I wanted to switch it up and look at something different since the Euro is still playing out yesterday’s prediction. (By the way, if you want to see a breakdown that we’ve been doing on it over the past few days in my live trading room check out this video www.youtube.com) There’s also a special cameo in the video ;-)
GBPUSD is at an interesting level as we’re currently at the top end of what to me is a major level of support. If you look at the ebbs and flows on the daily chart (above) you’ll see that we’re approaching the previous outside return (retracement) and a violation of this level would cause a rotation in trend. For that reason I expect the bulls to be on the defensive fighting hard not to give up that area.
Technically this is an at market buy right now as we’ve double bottomed at the zone, due to the retest of structure on the peak, I’d like to see a push lower into the 1.5350’s level reducing my potential risk as well.
Depending on if/how this completes will dictate targets but I would expect a move back up into the 1.5420’s-1.5450’s level for first targets.
Have a great Weekend Traders! And do me a favor, if you’ve been enjoying my post, please hit that like button and leave a comment. I’m close to making the “All-Time” top author list here at Tradingview and I think that would be awesome.
Lastly make sure you check out the interview from my client and good friend Jason Graystone “On Losing, Losing Some More, Then Winning” It’s a great read for all up and coming traders. tradingstory.com
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Counter Trend @ 1.12s or TCT In Anticipation of the moveA lot of my radar today going around my trading portfolio including the EURUSD. After being stopped out for a loss on yesterday’s bullish Bat pattern, we re-did our IPDE process and started making predictions for our next opportunities. I still don’t see a structure level that I’m a fan of on this pair that is until/unless we get down to the 1.1000 area, but the next potential speed bump may come around the 1.1200 even handle number.
Aside from it being a psychological number, we have multiple harmonic moves setting up in that area, some Fibonacci extensions, and most importantly, looking left we’ve got structure leaving clues.
As discussed in yesterday’s live session, the question just isn’t “where will we go?” but “how will we get there?” And this offers yet another trend continuation (TCT) opportunity if the market were to retrace in anticipation on that 1.1200 level being hit. Of course counter trend (CT) traders, this makes no difference to you as you’re only waiting for the next structure level.
We’ve got the Jackson Hole Symposium going on today which may provide some movement along with Pre-GDP and our normal Thursday Unemployment Claims out at 8:30am & Pending Home Sales at 10:00am. I don’t even try to pretend that I can predict the outcome of these events, but keep those in mind while trading today. We’ll be keeping an eye out for this one in our live trading room today along with potential trades on the GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY & USDCAD which are all high on my radar.
Also it’s THURSDAY so make sure you check out my Youtube page later for my weekly Forex Trading Video www.youtube.com
Have a great day of trading gang!
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Now I'm Ready To Buy On Our 2nd Test of Yesterday's ZoneFollowing up on yesterday’s EURUSD analysis, the market reached my killzone and we saw a slight bullish bounce as previous resistance turned into support. We have now made our way back down into that zone, but this time the ebbs and flows of price action have set up a potential advanced pattern in the form of a bullish bat.
If you’re a Syndicate member, check your emails as I just recorded a video on this same trade talking about the potential bearish bat that may form as a result of this as well and why you may, or may not want to use this as an “aggressive C” opportunity, but to keep things simple, the ATR has been big enough on this pair to provide more than enough potential profit by taking traditional targets so there’s really no need to get fancy. After all, as I mentioned yesterday I’m still uncertain whether our new structure high was a true move or just a fear based reaction to the madness that’s been occurring.
Personally, I’ve always been a fan of getting my money and getting out, especially in times like these. Anyway, we can discuss it more in the Live Room today. Good luck traders and continue to be safe out there.
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Who The Heck Knows What's NextI’m not even going to lie to you guys. I have no idea what the next move is on the Euro. As I told my training course clients yesterday, right now I’m in defense mode as I don’t want to give any of this years gains back trying to get cute in these crazy markets. With that being said I have gotten messages here on Tradingview to share my opinion and do some analysis so here it is.
After resistance is broken it turns to support, so I’m looking for price action to retrace to our previous level of structure and potential give us some type of reaction. Normally I would say to expect a trend continuation move here but I do think yesterday’s moves were overblown and a correction is in store, especially for those interested in buying USD’s and this discounted price.
Looking on the hourly chart a harmonic move (ABCD) would put us right at a previous level of structure both minor on the hourly and major on the daily. Also, keep in mind we have an important consumer confidence number coming out this morning as well. So will there be a reaction, I don’t know. Where will that reaction take us, I don’t know. Hey I’m just being honest with you. The only think I’ll be looking at is short term trading opportunities once my live room opens. By the way if you want to spend a free week in there with me, you can sign up here. tradeempowered.com
Maybe I’ll see you throughout the week, maybe I won’t. As mentioned before I’m not in a rush to gamble and try to catch the “hot” move, rather I’m concerned with conserving my capital and not letting a decent year of trading profits get eaten up by greed.
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Bat Pattern Setting Up, How Will We Get ThereIn yesterday’s post I mentioned that the EURUSD was at a decision point. Well, it looks like the markets didn’t decided to go with my decision to get short as I was stopped out on the 2618 opportunity. Luckily Jason had a monster day in the Syndicate bringing in just under 300 pips himself. That’s what friends are for!
Now that the Euro has broken and closed above the previous resistance level it’s time to redo that IPDE process and prepared for the next move. Our next structure level starts around the 1.1360’s area which would also line up with a bearish bat pattern completion here on the daily. I’m not a daily chart trader, but this information will be useful for building a CTS score as I do analysis on the lower timeframes. One thing to be careful with is the higher level of structure looking left. In my experience I’ve noticed that when two levels of structure are close to eachother, the higher one is typically tested. Something to keep in mind when placing those stop losses.
In the mean time, there are two ways that price action can reach that level, it can either go directly there, or we may see a pullback into previous resistance which should now act as support
Because I didn’t have the chance to record a Weekend Review video last night I’m going to do another Live Google Hangout for the first 20 minute so of today’s Live Trading Room. Here’s the link if you want to join. And make sure you subscribe to my channel.
Click here to join the hangout www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: The Next Potential Short on Euro, Bearish 2618As price action makes its way back up towards previous structure highs, we’ll reach what I like to call a “decision point” in the market. I call it that because it’s at this point where our “IF/THEN” thought process comes in today play in our decision of whether to go long or short.
Because we have yet to break structure, I won’t touch on the long option, but the short option is playing this current move as a 2618 trade. We have already entered the killzone starting at 1.1120’s and at this point I would be dialing down to your lower timeframes and looking for an entry reason.
IF this 2618 does complete and rollover, it would also be the “C” leg of a potential bullish bat pattern. You guys know how I feel about the “aggressive C” trade (BAD! BAD! BAD!) but this would be one that actually makes sense, only because you have a valid reason to enter.
I’m feeling horrible today as I’ve caught a cold from somewhere, but with A LOT on my trading radar (Syndicate members, take a look at the tradefloor this morning) I don’t want to miss what could be a day ripe with opportunity.
(If you’re unfamiliar with the 2618 trade, the free training is on our website under the “Learn to Trade” tab)
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: CPI & FOMC Today. My Advice of Trading News ReleasesToday should be a very important day for the EURUSD as we have both CPI and FOMC Meeting minutes coming out for the USD at 8:30am & 2:00pm (NY) respectively. Like many pairs as of late the Euro is currently at a spot right between structure levels where I have neither buying or selling interest. Hopefully today’s releases will push price action to either support or resistance, allowing me to have a much better read on the market for the remainder of the week.
On yesterday’s post I had a good conversation with a trader about predicting news. Whether you should or shouldn’t is completely up to you as a trader, but I do offer this advice to those who are new. Good news doesn’t always equate to a good move and bad news doesn’t always equate to a bad move. Rarely does the market move based on the actual number that is released, more so the interpretation of that number which is what makes trading news a difficult thing to consistently do (unless you’re a longer term trader). If you already have a position on (based off of the technicals) and you decide to hold an extended target because you think that the market may react a certain way, then that’s a different story as I trust that you’re using well planned out trade management techniques. But I would urge you not to try and take a position purely based off a guess, the risk over time well outweighs the reward in my opinion.
For you guys that joined me in yesterday’s Live Room Google hangout, (here’s the recording www.youtube.com) I did get filled the USDCAD that we talked about. This may be a perfect example of what I mentioned above about holding a partial position if you anticipate a certain move.
Akil Stokes
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Great trade so far - still going for more on the up-trend ?Hi all,
Took this trade last night when price was near 2.0400 where the price was also bouncing off of. and was channeling on 15M. But breakthrough and trended upward. I was already in with my rules of Channel Breakout setup. GBP News went out during London session and boom, 170 pips when I woke up this AM.
I advanced my stop loss near 2.0505 to lock in some profit in case the price decides to retrace lower. But I beleive the retracement would be near 2.0560 only and would continue up for another 100 or more pips or so toward the north trend line.
Thanks to Jason and Akil for the learning course on structure analysis and enforcing patience during trading :-)
On Good Trade - Chaching !!
Lets watch it.
EURUSD: What's Going On With The EURO???I wanted to title this post What’s Going On With The Euro? Because I honestly don’t have a clue. With the lack of movement in the markets, it’s been really difficult to get a true read on certain pairs since they just aren’t moving too much. With no major news out today and CPI & FOMC coming tomorrow I’m expecting more of the same today.
None the less, it’s still important that I go through my I.P.D.E. process and at least make some predictions so that I have some sort of structure (no pun intended) going into the trading day.
As I always do with my analysis, what I have drawn on this chart is just a series of harmonic moves and Fibonacci extensions, inversions & retracements. They create a nice zone between the 1.1020-1.0980’s level. With that being said there’s no real level of structure at that level that gives me confidence in a reversal at that area so I’m not actively looking to get long there from a swing traders perspective. Could be a good day trading option if we get the right type of reaction once we hit it.
Anyway we’ll see what happens and hey, if you want to see me do this analysis live, I’m testing out a Youtube Live Stream today at 8am New York time. Here’s the link (I think) www.youtube.com but if you’re subscribed to my youtube page you should be notified I believe (based off of the test this morning).
Akil Stokes
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USDJPY: Potential Bearish Bat Pattern w/ Supply Zone Not too much on my radar today, which is perfect since I prefer not to be actively trading on Monday’s. With that being said, something that I have my orders locked and loaded on for later on is this potential bearish bat pattern on the USDJPY completing at 125.09 right around a 4hr supply zone. This one may also be worth watching as it approached 125 even as we know how these psychological numbers affect price action.
Last week was one of our rougher week’s in the Syndicate program. If you’d like to read about it check out the blog post I wrote reviewing my 33rd Week of Trading in 2015. tradeempowered.com
Akil Stokes
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GBPJPY:Gartley, Bat or Butterfly w/ video on Rising WedgesAs you can see, lots of potential action here on the GBPJPY following our Rising Wedge from earlier in the week. Yesterday I recorded a video talking about this rising wedge as well as a MUST own trading book, so make sure you head over to my Youtube page and check if you if you haven’t already
“A Trading Book Must Own & Trading Simple Patterns” www.youtube.com
Today I have a handful of advanced patterns on the radar including a bear gartley, bull bat, and a bull butterfly. I’m not too big on butterfly patterns so I’ll be ignoring that one but it’s there.
Aside from that, I just got short the AUDCAD from last night’s Syndicate video which is now featuring another rising wedge pattern inside of our ab=cd/2618 trade and I’ve got my eyes glued to EURUSD, GBPUSD & NZDUSD from some trading opportunities.
Yesterday was a no trade day for me, but hopefully I’ll get some valid signals today and end the week with a bang!
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Looking for Shorts at this decision pointIf you saw my post yesterday then you know that I’ve been waiting for a potential short on this pair. (Here’s the video link explaining the trade www.youtube.com) My initial killzone was pretty large and after a brief test of the bottom levels of it, price has rallied back to the top providing me with the opportunity that I was waiting for.
The reason I didn’t enter the trade yesterday was strictly due to the fact that I wouldn’t get the risk reward that I wanted. Risk reward will still be difficult at this level because of how close the structure levels are but if I’m able to get the entry that I want, my stops may be short enough to make it work.
The London session extension gave us another equal measured move back into structure looking left and some Fibonacci extensions. The bulls gave a nice test of the highs and were beaten back after the first attempt to break through. As I type I’m watching this on the 15 minute chart waiting for a reason to enter, all depending on how this current candle completes. For targets I’ll be looking for a move back down into our previous new structure highs, and certainly looking to aggressively manage this one during my live trading room hours. We’ll see how this one pans out
“Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan”
Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Bullish Gartley (Repost)/How To Grow Your Account Video Hey guys, we've been watching this potential setup for a while & price action is finally in striking distance of you D point completion. Therefore I wanted to repost this chart just as a heads up. Keep an eye out for the *ADP Number at 8:15 Eastern.
I'm heading out of town so there will be no more post from me this week, however I did leave you guys a short video addressing a common question that I get about "How To Grow Your Trading Account" of course my answer probably isn't what you'd expect to hear, but I'm also not like most traders. Here's the link www.youtube.com
Please let me know what you think by leaving a comment under the youtube video. Don't forget to LIKE, SHARE & SUBSCRIBE too, that helps me out a lot.
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Akil Stokes
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USDJPY: Rising Wedge Into Previous Structure (read description)I’m looking at a rising wedge type of pattern forming here on the USDJPY that is working it’s way toward a pretty significant level of structure (look left). We typically see a breakout to the downside with this type of setup as it represents the market losing steam after a high volume move.
I’ll be looking for short opportunities on this pair in the Live Trading Room, but we might want to keep out eyes on the 8:15 ADP number as we are still looking at a very bullish dollar.
This is my last active trading day for the week as I’m headed out of town but I didn want to leave you guys with a short video titled “How to Grow Your Trading Account” Here’s the link Here's the link to my youtube video "How To Grow Your Trading Account" here’s the link.
www.youtube.com
Hitting the LIKE button, leaving a comment and sharing on my youtube page would be a BIG HELP!
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Akil Stokes
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EURJPY: Potential 2618 Trade with (How to video in description)Here on the EURJPY we have a potential 2618 setup in the works. I say potential because I have no clue what the future of this current leg is, all I can do is Identify, Predict, Decide & then Execute. Here’s a link where you can take the FREE training on this particular strategy (tradeempowered.com ) but essentially, what I’m looking at is a double bottom signaling a reversal and a retest of that that simple pattern as a way to hop on the next leg of the move.
Slow trading this morning were you guys over in London fast asleep? Anyway, aside from this setup all I’ve got is the GBPUSD, EURAUD and GBPAUD on my radar this morning. I think GBPAUD is a steal of an opportunity, hopefully I’ll have a reason to get involved this week before I head out of town. The last thing I want to do is be worried about how my trade is going while up in the air.
As always good luck today traders and below are some links if you’re interested in any more free trading content.
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Akil Stokes
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Gartley Pattern w/ Great Risk v RewardNot a lot on my radar this morning which is perfect seeing how Monday’s are typically days where I let the markets wake up after the weekend. One pair that I’ve been continuing to watch closely has been the EURUSD which has provided a lot of opportunity over the past month or so.
The chart before you shows a potential bullish Gartley pattern completing extremely close to the “X” leg. As I shared with my Syndicate members in this morning’s trading video, this is a really good thing, because it puts us in a situation where we don’t have to risk as much and can potentially receive a greater reward if the trade goes in our direction.
I usually don’t take patterns too seriously until the “B” leg is broken so there may be a few bullish opportunities beforehand, but that’s something I won’t be interested in until tomorrow.
Good luck in the markets this week traders and as always, if you like this post PLEASE HIT the THUMBS UP button, and if you have any question, comments or would like to share your views on this pair don’t hesitate to type in below.
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered
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NZDUSD: New Structure Low, Outside Return, New Structure Low?Hey gang, first of all thank you for all of the great comments on yesterday's youtube video "How Do Know If My Trading Strategy Is Failing" (www.youtube.com) You guys said that you've learned a lot and please continue to let me know exactly what that was in the comments section on Youtube.
Today I've got bearish cypher patterns on both EURJPY and EURAUD on my radar, but felt like sharing a structure based trade with you this Friday to mix things up. Similar to the AUDUSD (but not the same), the Kiwi has just broken and closed below a level of structure, with a much more significant level resting below. I like to say that structure acts like a magnet so I'm predicting that the market will be pulled towards that lower level. Therefore I'll be looking for reasons to short the Kiwi this morning in the Live Room as the market creates a pullback.
Obviously there;s no way to tell now if I'll actually get involved in the trade or not, but my eyes will be glued to this one on the lower timeframes. Wishing all of you a great weekend and do me a favor, if you liked the video above, make sure you subscribe to my channel. I'd like to inspire as many traders as possible so tell your trading buddies to check it out!
Akil Stokes
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Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
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EURUSD: Been Waiting All Week & Finally Got My ReasonAfter stalking the EURUSD this entire week, price action has finally made its way down into my kill zone and has also given me a reason to get long in the form of a bullish bat pattern that completed during the early London session.
There are so many ways to take targets on this trade and instead of laying them all out I’ll just ask you these questions. Why are you involved in the trade (advanced pattern or trend continuation)? And (of course) What do your rules say to do?
I know you guys hate hearing that, but hey, that’s the reality of trading. Each of us are different and as I tell my clients, your trading style should match your personality making it fit you like a fine tailored suit.
BIG NEWS OUT AT 8:30 eastern! We’ve got USD: Advance GDP, Trade Balance & Unemployment. This should certainly give us some action early on in the New York session so be careful. The underlying market sentiment still looks to be very bullish the USD especially since yesterday’s (lack of hawkish tone) FOMC statement showed little movement before being shaken off my the market.
Yesterday’s USDCAD didn’t go my way and if you’d like to read about it here’s the link to my trading blog. tradeempowered.com
Also it’s Thursday so that means my weekly video is coming out so make sure you head over to YouTube and SUBSCRIBE to my channel, that way you don’t miss it. I’ll most likely be talking about dealing with failing strategies and looking at equity curves…we’ll see. Good luck today traders and let’s ROCK the markets on this wonderful Thursday!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
USDCAD: It's Not Greedy, It's Just Another Good Opportunity A few weeks ago I made a very controversial call on the USDCAD looking to go long despite a major level of resistance and an advance pattern on the higher timeframe. (You can see the video explanation of that trade here www.youtube.com) Well after finally being taken out for the remaining part of my position Canada has come back to a level that looks prime for another buying opportunity and more importantly, just like last time, I don’t have to have that much at risk in order to get involved.
This is a simple structure based trade. Price action has come back down to test previous structure support, and IF this trend is going to remain intact, THEN that level should hold. (See how I snuck that IF/THEN thought process in there). If it doesn’t then I’ll be wrong and taken out of the trade.
With stops below the 1.2900 even handle number I only have about 35pips at risk, with a potential reward of around 100pips of reward if we move back across to the right shoulder. With that being said it may not be an easy ride, as I’ve marked off a few key levels of interest that I’ll need to pay attention to. This is certainly one of those trades that I will need to actively manage, especially with the FOMC statement on the horizon.
Good luck today traders and PLEASE continue to hit that LIKE button if you’re enjoying my posts here. Also check out my blog over at www.tradeempowered.com Yesterday I wrote one talking about my trading day and how being over prepared to trade is a good thing.
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Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
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continiuation trade after consolidating a breakout of the trendupdate : broke out of consolidation lets look for a .618 retracement for a long position
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Good day to you traders,
Just saw the 2nd breakout last night so i looked for a trading oppertunnity.
I have been waiting for a consolidation above the trendline because, after a second breakout, i think this is a pretty good confirmation that the price will go higher after a very long down trend.
IF the price breaks out ABOVE the consolidation THEN i think this is a pretty good oppertunity to long this pair.
IF the price retraced .618 THEN i will long till previous structure @ 0.67410.
Stop loss will be @ 0.66423 just under the consolidation.
edit: RSI isnt overbought yet
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These are my trading plans its on your own risks to follow me.
EURUSD: Looking For Another Buying Opportunity I couldn’t have asked for a better start to this trading week. Unlike last week everything I’ve touched has turned to gold giving me a very nice cushion going into my first real day of active trading. There is a lot on my radar today including the EURJPY, USDJPY, USDCAD, NZDUSD & EURAUD, but I wanted to share my EURUSD idea with you guys since we’ve been tracking this pair a lot as of late (see related charts).
After pulling off massive profits on the big Gartley pattern, the Euro buyers is now giving some relief and I’m looking for an area where they might be interested in purchasing once again. My “A-Kill” zone rests from 1.1015’s-1.0920’s and I’ll be sure to keep a close eye on this pair in the live room looking for opportunities to get long.
I do think we can retest our previous major structure level at 1.12’s but I would be sure to get at least partial profits off at a much safer level like 1.11’s for example.
Here's a link to the blog post i wrote yesterday titled "A Much Needed Easy Day" tradeempowered.com
Also, I’m not sure how many of you use the app Periscope, but I’ll be doing an interview with FXTC Magazine around 4:30pm (Eastern) and they said they were going to stream it live on there. First I’ve heard of the app, but if you’re not doing anything feel free to check it out.
Good luck today traders and remember “Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan!”
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos:
www.youtube.com
GBPJPY: Bullish Bat PatternHey traders! Great start to the week thus far with my EURUSD long from what 2 weeks ago finally banked some profits along with a few other traders that we were in. EURAUD from Friday got eaten alive but hey we can't win with them all.
Only a few trades on my radar this morning as Monday's are my training day but a simple bat pattern here on GBPJPY.
Today's Blog Post "A Much Needed Easy Day" tradeempowered.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos:
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EURUSD: A Pullback to Where We Had Our Eyes Glued YesterdayHappy Friday traders! A lot of my radar today but I wanted to focus on the EURUSD since I know that’s a pair that many of you are tracking especially those of you who accepted my challenge from yesterday’s YouTube video. ( www.youtube.com )
Personally I’m still bullish from the Gartley pattern earlier this week, but if I weren’t I’d be all over the bull gartley that just completed & at the time of writing this is still hovering around those entry points. Aside from it being an advanced pattern this gartley also represents a pullback that is coming right back into a previous structure high & a zone that we were heavily watching in the Live Room yesterday. I’m not too certain about seeing a move all the way up to the bigger bat, but that’s where my initial targets are at for what I’m trading so trust me, I would not be upset it that happened. A little lower we have a potential cypher pattern as well.
Best of luck today gang, after killing the markets last week, it’s been a rough go for me over the past 4 days. Yesterday’s eurjpy trade played out well and like I said in my video, the worst case scenario in my Euro position is +80pips so that will help, but in general when you win big, you should always expect to donate some back.
Other pairs on my radar today are the gbpusd (currently long), gbpjpy, usdjpy, nzdusd (currently long) and the euraud.
See many of you in the live room at 8am eastern!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
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