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Akil_stokes

GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 4)Yesterday’s news gave us a lot of continued strength in the GBP blowing right past previous structure without a pause it seems. So the question is what’s next? Well going off of the basic price action principles of higher high, higher close, I’m expecting the bullish move to continue. The next stopping point that I have on my radar is around 1.6200 even handle where we have a cluster of Fibonacci extensions, retracements & inversions along with some minor structure (looking far left). Technically the “killzone” is a lot wider than that, but that would be the first area that would cause me to place close attention. Our harmonic move (ab=cd) is towards the higher end of that zone, but if you look left on the screen or zoom out to the weekly, you’ll see we have some pretty decent previous structure throughout Although we’re still a few hundred pips away from that level it’s important that I make that prediction as it’s part of the Identify, Predict, Decide, Execute (IPDE) process that I go through when evaluating every price chart. Now that I’ve predicted where I think the market is going, the next question that I want to ask myself is “how is the market going to get there?” Well, there are two ways, 1) we’ll shoot straight up, or 2) the market will show some relief and we’ll get a retracement back into previous structure. IF the market retraces THEN I’ll be looking for opportunities to hop on the bullish move. I appreciate all of the kind feedback on this “Weekly Follow” idea that I’ve been trying out this week. It’s been pretty fun to do, and we all need some fun in this stressful field we work in. I’ll see many of you guys in my Live Room in an hour or so, and for the rest of you, it’s Thursday, so that means be on the lookout for my weekly “Weekend Review” video www.youtube.com Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst at www.tradeempowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
45
GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 3)In last night’s video we talked about Wednesday being a busy news day and how one of the major releases to keep an eye on was the GBP Average Hourly Earnings. Well, waking up and seeing big spikes in the GBP pairs I can assume that this number came out better than expected. I’ll make my news rounds after getting this post out to you. Now before we get into the technicals, keep in mind that we still have a good amount of news to come including the FOMC statement at 2pm NY time. Just to give you guys an update, I did not take the bearish bat pattern yesterday, but I did involve myself in an intraday (structure based) trade that was taken out for about a 40pip loss. With our bat pattern now being invalidated by the penetration of our “X” leg we have to restart our IPDE process and ask ourselves “what’s next?” Well a harmonic move would put us right back into a 1.618 Fibonacci extension along with previous structure highs (look left). Normally in this case I would look for a retest of previous structure highs and a chance to jump on the move up but with the FOMC coming later today, I think it’s more likely that we just consolidate until that release at 2pm. Which way will the market go after the FOMC statement? I’d be lying to you if I said I knew. I sort of have an idea based off simply opinion, but would never base a trade because of that alone. IF we move bearish, it wouldn’t surprise me if the 1.5550’s level was tested and IF we go bullish, we’ll probably break structure to the upside. With both the BOE and FED looking to raise rates in the future, this is truly a battle between 2 very strong currencies at the moment. It’ll be interesting to see what unfolds…from the sidelines of course. Akil Stokes www.TradeEmpowered.com Check out my trading videos on YouTube www.youtube.com
by Akil_Stokes
20
GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 2)If you're new to following me, yesterday I decided to dedicate an entire week to keeping you guys updated on a single pair. Below is a link to the Day 1 chart if you missed it or just need a recap on what I was looking at. The cable was very bullish yesterday an nearly pushed up to our projected bat pattern completion. Since then we've retraced and are setting up another potential drive to that level. With all of the heavy news out of the way today and the markets waiting on tomorrows GBP news and the USDs FOMC statement, I'm not expecting too much movement so I'll mainly be looking intraday for my trading opportunities. Here on the hourly there are two places that i'm looking to get involved on GBPUSD. The first would be a structure play at the retest of the potential Gartley patterns "B" leg and the other would be the potential Gartley which would complete down at 1.5517s. Jason Stapleton just informed our Syndicate members that he got short this pair around the 1.56 even handle as well. My guess is a structure play as we've just tested a previous level, but I won't know for sure about his thought process on this trade until our War Room meeting at 8:30am NY. The response was GREAT yesterday and it seems as if you guys are very excited about me trying this "1 Pair A Week" thing out. So I'll keep this going and if it continues to work well maybe it'll be a regular occasion. See you guys in the Live Room! Also if you're interested in seeing where I go to get my fundamental data from, i wrote a blog post last night sharing mu top 3 sources: tradeempowered.com Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com Akil@Tradeempowered.com Check out my FREE weekly trading videos www.youtube.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
11
GBPUSD: A Look At The Week AheadTaking inspiration from one of my followers who messaged me this weekend, I wanted to try something different here on Tradingview and concentrate on a single pair this week instead of randomly posting charts when I have the time. (Let me know what you think of this idea by the way). This week I wanted focus on the GBPUSD as there are a few potential trading opportunities on the horizon. Big picture, after coming off of a very nice bullish bat pattern in early June, we've been waiting for the completion of a good sized bearish bat as well with a completion at 1.5639s. Last week finally brought the break above, close above of our "B" leg and since that point we've been looking for trend continuation opportunities to hop aboard a bullish move. Last week this market found trouble closing above the 1.5552 level which is some cause for concern, but as we come back into previous structure support, i'll be looking for buying opportunities once again. There are 2 levels that really stand out to me for buying opportunities the structure level between 1.5478-1.5466 and the structure level between 1.5460-1.5421. Which one will hold? I have no idea yet, but this is what i'll be tracking as the week goes on. If I have the time, i'll try and provide an update on this pair throughout the week and if the response is good, maybe this can be a regular thing. No promises, but I did want to start posting to tradingview again and this is a fun way to do so. Best of luck this week traders! SMASH those markets! Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com For Weekly Trading Videos Make Sure You Check Out My Youtube Channel www.youtube.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
34
USDJPY Trend Continuation Opportunity Long into SupportAfter creating new structure highs last week, the USDJPY is now putting in an outside return back into previous structure setting up a decent looking trend continuation opportunity. I yet have a reason to get long per my rules of engagement, but I will certainly be keeping a very close eye on this setup as the risk to reward is a no brainer for me with stops beneath previous structure support and targets as far up as our previous structure highs. If any of you guys are around at 10:15am NY time I'm doing an interview with Dale Pinkert and may be reviewing this trade if I end up getting involved www.fxstreet.com Akil Stokes www.TradeEmpowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
29
GBPAUD 1H, Cypher studyJust study of what Akil Stokes talked about in this video - www.youtube.com . For me - when playing harmonic patterns, B point is usually 1st target. Entry here would be 'manual' - based on price action observation plus not very strong RSI divergence. Further targets - not sure, probably fibonacci levels - 61.8% then 50% (both more probable than 38.2%). Notice C point is not very precise here, the same about D point.... Therefore - what do you think? What's are your thoughts about how precision entry should be?
by leszekstanislaw
EURUSD: 2 Structure Trades for Shorts Pt. 2To follow up on last week's EURUSD idea, the pair has finally reached higher level of structure that I liked during yesterday's Euro rally. We've now double topped at that level and have broken structure to the downside setting up for a potential 2618 opportunity for those traders looking for a conservative approach to get involved. We do have A LOT of news on the table today including an ECB press conference and a USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change number. There aren't many expectations from the ECB this morning as nothing is expected to be said in regards to the monetary policy but there may be some Greece based questions during the Q&A and anything regarding Greece has been moving the markets as of late. Before ADP number which is released before the ECB press conference should be of importance as traders will look to use it to predict Friday's massive news day. There are rumors floating around about "ditching" the rate hike due to global worries so the very bullish sentiment that we had on the USD may not be as strong as before. "It may be impossible for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates until the rest of the world economy improves... the dismal performance of first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product may signal a more permanent slowdown, and that the Fed needed to enter a phase of "watchful waiting" before raising rates." Anyway enough of the fundamentals, the technicals gave me a sell yesterday so I'm still looking short on this pair but it may be an interesting day similar to the Aussie (for those of you in the Syndicate program). Below is a link to the video where I originally discussed the trade setup. The EURUSD talk starts about 11 minutes into it. VIDEO ON EURUSD TRADE www.youtube.com Akil Stokes www.TradeEmpowered.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
19
EURUSD 1HR: Two Structure Levels for ShortsI've explained this trade in detail during my latest Weekend Review video (link below), so i'll try to be brief. Like everyone else, I want to buy Dollars & Sell Euros based off of the fundamentals. With that being said it's important that we don't try and jump on the bandwagon because that's how a lot of rookie traders get burnt. Rather, we should stick to what got us here, the technicals and use our skill of technical analysis to predict where the next relief rally will end and find a low risk opportunity to get involved. (By low risk I mean, putting myself in the position where my potential profit is larger than my potential drawdown). As mentioned in the below video, I like the higher level of structure a lot more than the lower one, but both are worth keeping an eye on for the next leg down. It's crystal clear that the U.S. wants to raise interest rates. The best guess is September, but they have left it open by saying it depends on the economic data. I still believe that this market is prime to ignore any negative USD data (unless it's drastic) and waiting to rally on any "at expected" or positive USD news. These opinions won't affect my trading as far as looking for long or short opportunities, but they're good to know especially if the opportunity comes to shoot for extended targets. Have a great week traders and make sure you check out the other videos in my Weekend Review Playlist. "Maybe I Got Too Fired Up" www.youtube.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
4
XAUUSD: Bullish Bat Pattern w. Multiple Ways To Trade It Bullish Bat Pattern here on XAUUSD that's looking to be putting in a double bottom at the completion point. (You may hav eone already on the LTF). I say looking because on this 4hr timeframe the current candle won't close for another 2 hours or so and as we all know the close is very important to the story that the market is telling us. If you take a look at the "A" leg for a second you'll notice that Gold has recently been in consolidation since the end of March and with the recent HHHC, there's certainly the chance that we could see a breakout of this sideways action. Yes the USD is very strong and any bit of positive or "as expected" news is going to strengthen it even more. But the technicals are the technicals. With a light news day today, we may see enough relief to hit our small counter-trend targets before Thursday's & Friday's big releases come out. Akil www.TradeEmpowered.com
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Akil_Stokes
18
AUDUSD: Structure Long with Hidden DivergenceSorry for being quiet this week trading view but I've been running things on the road. Also the markets have been pretty quiet this week so there just hasn't been a lot to share. Today seems to be a little bit better and I wanted to bring a potential buying opportunity on AUDUSD to your attention. I'm already long this pair from earlier in the week. My position has been doing absolutely nothing but sitting there, but with our recent movement in price action another opportunity has appeared as well. This structure based opportunity can be looked at like a 2618. Price action has come down to previous structure support and held, followed by a HHHC and is now retracing. The HHHC gives us a bullish rotation and the present retracement is a perfect chance to hop aboard. Also the fact that the RSI is showing us hidden divergence gives me some added confidence and potentially added points for those of you that trade the Combined Technical Scoring System (CTS). The risk reward looks good on this trade no matter where you look to get long, so the only question left is "How Can I Get Long?" And the answer to that should be simple. What does your trading plan say are your rules for entry on this type of trade? "But Akil, what if I don't have a rule for this in my trading plan?" Well I'm sorry but you shouldn't be taking the trade then. With structure being at the core of my trading philosophy I'd be looking for targets at resistance & stops below support. Best of luck if you do get involved and until next time. "Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan" Akil Stokes www.Tradeempowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
25
GBPJPY: Price Action Short, When Will The Bulls Give In?I don't place trades off of the daily timeframes but I do watch them on a consistent basis as part of my top-down analysis and GBPJPY has been one that has been in some what of a fight as of late. After easily rallying up into structure it's come to a halt and it looks as if the bulls may be running out of steam. Just look at the wicks, they're trying to push higher but have been rejected each of the last 5 times. Now this doesn't mean that it will happen, but it does mean that this is a decision point in the market. If we do see some relief I would predict a move back into previous structure support which exist down at the 185 even level. An entry on the LTF would give me a much better risk reward on this setup, so we'll see if the market will give me anything to work with this week. As of right now it looks as if my best chance is to wait for a LLLC and retest of structure to get involved. For those of you in the Syndicate, that just watched Jason's video on the F.E. trade, this would be a perfect chance to paper trade (WITH DEMO MONEY!!!) that technique as a breakout an run wouldn't shock me. Akil
Short
by Akil_Stokes
22
GER30: Potential Bullish Bat Pattern (Could this be 4 in a row?)If you missed the initial analysis here's a video where I go over it. I think it starts at about the 20 minute mark, but you might as well watch the entire thing ;-) Weekend Review: "The Most Important thing You Can Do Is..." www.youtube.com We've been tracking this index for the past few weeks in the Live Room and so far we've been spot on with our predictions. A move into structure rolled over into a Gartley pattern, our Gartley pattern shot back up into a Cypher and our CYpher is now looking to complete a Bat pattern....potentially of course. If you missed the initial analysis here's a video where I go over it. I think it starts at about the 20 minute mark, but you might as well watch the entire thing ;-) Wishing you best of luck in the markets this week traders!!! Aki
FX:GER30Long
by Akil_Stokes
7
Nikkei225: Potential TCT into A Cypher (Some Random Analysis)The Forex markets have been kicking my tail this week so I decided to take a look at some other markets simply to clear my mind. Conducting technical analysis is actually a stress reliever to me, when I get do it on something that I don't trade. A few of my clients have expressed that they trade many of the indices, which lead me to the Nikkei. Initially the first thing that popped out to me was the potential bearish Cypher pattern which met up with an outstanding amount of Fibonacci confluence after putting on a few extensions, retracements and inversions. I also had an abcd move projected last night, but couldn't say for sure since the "C" leg was still in progress. As I took another look this morning i see that the C leg has retraced to a level deep enough to provide a rather good risk to reward for a trader looking to hop on long...not because of the potential Cypher completion, rather because of the overall shift in the trend that we just saw after achieving a HHHC.
FX:JPN225Long
by Akil_Stokes
3
NZDUSD: Measuring the Pullback for a Structure based ShortWe placed NZDUSD on our radar during yesterday's Live Room session and have been tracking it ever since. I apologize in advance, but the analysis that I did on this pair is somewhat advanced so I'm not going to attempt to duplicate what I shared with you in last night's Syndicate video. Honestly speaking it's a lot clearer on the 13 period range bar charts (as you can see in the link attached at the bottom). Following the I.P.D.E. process that I shared with you guys on Monday, I've come to the conclusion that until shown otherwise, i want to get short Kiwi. The difficult part was determining where. Initially I had 3 killzones (with in the larger potential reversal zone) that sparked my interest but as this pair ebbs and flows, i'm starting to get a clearer idea of which zone is the one I want to keep my eye on and execute the trade if given the opportunity. To determine my killzones I've used a combination of Fibonacci retracements, extensions, inversions and harmonic moves. I say given the opportunity because, having price action enter the zone or level isn't enough. I still need to find a reason for entry and I won't know if or when that will happen until we get there. For now all I can do is wait, watch and be ready to pull the trigger if it does. Good luck in the markets today traders! tradeempowered.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
28
BTCUSD: Reading The Wicks for a long entryIn yesterday's interview/webinar I got asked the question about my outlook on Bitcoin. At the time I responded by saying that all I see is consolidation and didn't have a real prediction to make. (Here's a link to the recorded webinar if you missed it www.youtube.com) As I look at the chart today, although we're still consolidating, the candlesticks are telling me a heck of a story by the length of their wicks to the downside. Buying pressure is what I see at this level over the past few hours, so if I were a trader of this pair I would BUY! No it's not a high probability trade. For those of you who were in the Combined Technical Score training yesterday we probably only have a CTS score of 1. But as a pure structure based trade it offers a good risk reward in my opinion. I wouldn't expect any crazy breakout of anything like that, but a move back across is certainly possible.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Akil_Stokes
GER30: Low Risk Short Into Previous Structure SupportI wanted to hold this for my webinar with Tradingview today, but it looks like we're already starting to move so I'll give it a share as well. By the way if you haven't registered here's the link blog.tradingview.com Live Room members, if you remember last week we talked a lot about waiting for opportunities where the risk reward is heavily in our favor, especially if we want to take an aggressive approach. Well on Friday we came right into previous structure support which should now act as resistance on the Ger30. Conservative traders I would key in on this level and wait for a double top for a more conservative approach. No tricks to this trade just LOOK LEFT as structure will leave clues. Although we're in a heavy bullish trend on the HTFs, we have seen some relief as of late. I'm not sure how long this relief will last but for the bears there is a lot of continued opportunity to the downside.
FX:GER30Short
by Akil_Stokes
39
AUDCAD: Bearish Cypher. I think it's a LOSER...But I'm InWe've had a hell of a ride as of late on the AUDCAD. Through some difficult pattern trading weeks this pair has been the one keeping my head above water. We now have yet another Cypher pattern that just completed minutes ago. In all honestly, I'm fully expecting a loser on this one. Why? Well it's just the numbers. Even with the Cypher having a completion rate up to 75-80% 5 in a row without a loss seems a little unlikely. Will this stop me from taking the trade? Heck no! It's a "GOOD" trade and that's all i look for in the market. If you need another example of this check out the piece i just wrote on yesterday's USDCAD trade that I didn't want to take "the Best Type of Trade" tradeempowered.com Either way, stops need to be above the X leg, i'd say at minimum 0.9685s and initial targets (assuming we turn around on a dime) would be down in the 9545s area. Good luck with this one traders and remember we trade the plan not our emotions!
Short
by Akil_Stokes
43
USDJPY: 2 Ways to trade this Bullish FlagFlag patterns are one of the many simple patterns that I used to trade before I was a consistently profitable trader. Like many of the strategies that I used back then, I assumed that flags didn't work because i couldn't make profit off of them. After realizing that it was ME and not MY STRATEGY that had the problem, I find myself implementing a lot of what I used back in the day with a brand new perspective since I'm not a lot more knowledgeable about structure and price action. This chart features a bullish flag pattern on the USDJPY 240 chart. It can also be seen pretty clear on the 1 hour. They key to this particular pattern is the fact that it has formed by putting in an HHHL which signal of bullish continuation. So price action showing me bullish continuation + Bullish Flag pattern = Look for a chance to get long. There are a few ways to handle this trade and I've picke dout 2 to share with you. 1) Wait for a retest of the simple pattern lows and look to play the breakout. Or 2) wait for the breakout and retest. We've got resistance ahead aligned with fibonacci confluence to use as out target zone, with stops being below out flag pattern support level. Akil Akil@Tradeempowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
35
Bitcoin: 3 Bearish Opportunities approachingI got asked the other day about Bitcoin and what I thought about recent price action. When looking at the timeframe all that comes to mind is consolidation and bearish. As we've seen on the AUDCAD over the past few weeks (as it's nailed 4 straight cyphers) consolidation breeds patterns. I see 2 potential patterns here on BTCUSD the first being a bearish bat (yellow) and the second being a bearish cypher (red) Stops for the bat pattern will be well before the cypher completion so there's no need to worry about choosing one over the other. Before both of those potential patterns we also have a CTS based trading opportunity at the bat pattern "B" leg. At that level I'm seeing a potential ABCD completion, the RSI is already overbought, there's structure looking left and we have some fibonacci confluence. So not a bad opportunity. Waiting for a conservative reason for entry would make it an even better opportunity for you lower timeframe traders. If you're interested in watching me trade live I've opened up access to my live trading room for today. 8am-11am New York Time. Just shoot me an email before 7:45am NY time and I'll get you the login information Akil Akil@Tradeempowered.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Akil_Stokes
2