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Albiontrader

Opinion about EURCAD going SHORTI was asked a detailed opinion on a forum so I decided to report it here. The question was about going Short on EURCAD @1.4227 after the bearish pin-bar where the pair closed yesterday. Looking at lower timeframes I had marked one at 1.4251 which is currently where the price is being contained after dropping yesterday afternoon (the price started to move in the meanwhile but still...), and a tentative breakout got rejected 2 hours ago (between 8 and 9 UK Time). A conservative SL @1.431 seems to clear the high the price made on the 23rd, which can be fine. The bearish pin bar is well spotted; however, I fail to see a downwards trend here. The thing that might go in favour of this trade is that the price is moving in a nice wave form in the last year or so, then dropped and then took the wave movement again. This could be the top of yet another wave (triggered by the bearish pin-bar). So far not too bad on D1 timeframe. The weekly, on the contrary, does not tell me much; if anything, I see a general trend to the upside with former level of support/resistance around 1.4212 (+-20 pips) which would make me think a bit (see the Magenta line in the screenshot) . This looks like a "risky" reversal for the ones who like to take these kinds of trades, and maybe see to reach the bottom of the trendline, but I cannot see strong indications to go short at the moment. Cheers
by AlbionTrader
GBPCAD: a curious configurationGBPCAD closed the day in a very curious configuration that deserves being observed for potential action. The price touches the trendline and on the Weekly (below) and on the Daily. However, the closer zoom on the H4 timeframe in the main chart shows that the price actually broke out the downwards trendline. Now the peculiar thing is that this level: Sits on a 50% Fibonacci level taken from the weekly higher 2 times back. Is just above the 50% Fibonacci level taken from the latest lower high. Is just below a Fibonacci cluster made by the one taken from the weekly higher 3 times back and the one taken from the latest lower high. All in all the configuration is not one we see every day: not that I expect the price to bounce back and forth like a flipper ball, but this is not a moment for me to jump in. Unless the Fibonacci cluster sends the price decisively below the trendline, the first hours of the market see me #NEUTRAL on this.
by AlbionTrader
PALLADIUM indecisive at the momentSomeone asked an advice in chat about Palladium LONG (with TP@756.00) and thought to provide my personal point of view with a more organic answer... The instrument is uptrend on the long term, but it looks indecisive at the moment; from the chart we can see it is in a range between two Fibonacci levels (and one of them is a resistance as well). If we entered LONG at the bottom of the retracement the trade would be risky might be somewhat safe (with a SL just below the Fibonacci line serving as support. The price bounced a few times around the ~756.13 line as well: last but not least, the pin-bar reversal on Thursday (see the lower red line in the next chart, orange line in the others) Note that there is also an historical support on the Daily/Weekly (the higher blue line ~767.99 in the chart). If we bought it around 748 (I am just guessing an entry point) we would have a 1:1 risk-reward-ratio which is not ideal given the conditions. If we really wanted a 1:1 risk-reward-ratio, the entry point should have been put just above the Fibonacci level where the price bounced and the SL accordingly. I do not want to be dragged into the philosophical discussion if it is worth trading commodities for short-term, relatively little movements :) I would just stick to the technical and say that not advise to enter a trade in the middle of a Fibonacci level or between two support/resistance levels (even more if one confirms the other). Hope that helps
TVC:PALLADIUM
by AlbionTrader
AUDNZD possibility for SHORTThe retracement line on M15 and on M30 is squeezing the bars towards the Fibonacci level at 1.04958. The same trendline holds for H1 as well (see ) A bar closing under that trendline would probably lead way to a further continuation downwards, The trend has been short for a bit now as you can see on both H4 and on D1 So, in case the price finally breaks above-mentioned Fibonacci level, we will be looking at a retracement up to 1.05138 (which is a stronger Fibonacci level on D1 as can be seen in the D1 chart). This latter case is the more probable, as the price is not expected to extend further again to hit the head on the trendline. Whatever of these three scenarios, we will want to look the signal to enter short and follow the trend. Prices refer to this chart and may vary with other platform/brokers. I always discuss and follow up these ideas on my blog (find link in my profile).
Short
by AlbionTrader