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Alcoa

AA - Neutral/LongAlcoa successfully breached its downward trendline (blue) and made it past key resistance at 8.51, in line with my expectations for this stock to perform bullishly based on technicals at the time. The picture has changed somewhat. First, note the slightly decreasing volume during its 2016 breakout signalling that its momentum is decreasing, albeit not significantly. Secondly, we can notice that the RSI is at 65 and that a sell-off of a few days is due. Finally, notice the spinning tops on the last day of trading. This indicates a tug of war between the bears and the bulls - the stock moving wildly up and down before settling into an uncertain close only a minuscule amount below its open. This is a difficult position for the stock to close at, because of key resistance it ran into at around 9.55 back in November and December. Ultimately the stock needed three tries to penetrate this level. Assuming there is no major macroeconomic news one way or the other, I expect this stock to trade down for a few days. I see two major possibilities for it trading down. 1) a few down days in keeping with its current trend before it breaches resistance at 9.55 and establishes that price as new support while it trends for a time between 9.55 and its next key resistance at approx 10.20. 2) It may also trade dramatically lower to support at 8.50 and build moment for a time (many days) between 9.5 and 8.5. Ultimately I think this stock is headed up for a while longer, but it needs to regain some momentum and the bullish signals are less significant than they were several days ago. Additionally, because its closer to a major resistance line at 10.20ish than it was several days ago the risk/reward is less enticing in the short term. All of this points to a neutral, take a wait and see approach.
NYSE:AA
by tapkcir
AA - BULL?Alcoa has been trending down over the past year, as denoted by the blue trendline following its price peaks over the past 12 months or so. Over the past two days its finally broken through that line, indicating that the trend may possibly be reversing and Alcoa may rise. In the short term if Alcoa does continue to rise, expect resistance at $10. This is an important level psychologically (double digits) as well as marking a recent peak that Alcoa was unable to break in mid December. Volume today is already above the moving average on a strong move above the trendline. I view that (at this moment) as a good indicator that this is a for real bullish move and Alcoa is headed up. I'm still calling this neutral however, as its a one day peak so far on a trading day that is still ongoing. A few side notes: Alcoa is divided into two major business sections which are due to split towards the second half of 2016. One half focuses on aluminum, the other on aerospace. This makes it an interesting case with regards to aluminum prices influencing a major producer of aluminum, as a large portion of its current business is no longer centered around that metal. Despite that, prices of aluminum will still influence the stock - keep that in mind.
NYSE:AA
by tapkcir
Alcoa's Shining Knight?: Bullish Shark Edition?Alcoa has had the unfortunate circumstance of being thrown in the same group as many companies who are suffering because of the drastic fall in commodity prices. Currently there are two patterns targeting around 8.50-8.80. One is a bullish shark that has a potential PRZ between 8.78 and 8.57. The other is an AB=CD pattern targeting a PRZ at the 1.272 extension at 8.62. The overall PRZ zone(the gray box area) may be a good place to buy in or cover any short positions. Good Luck.
NYSE:AA
by CVGIII
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