Alcohol
Can BUD recover? LONGBUD trended down in the social media fiasco until June 1st and then reversed.
Based on long term VWAP lines ( mean and standard deviations) anchored to April 1st
on the one hour chart, BUD is crossing over VWAP lines from below and is now
approaching the mean VWAP at 59.25. It could make a bullish move and cross the
mean VWAP or it could bounce down if short sellers dominate buyers and longs closing
their positions. The dual time frame RSI shows both low time frame and high time frame
strength over 50. The three in one indicator shows money flow and momentum to also
be bullish. My call options expiring 12/15/23 striking $55 are up 23% since July 1st. This
is reasonable unrealized profit for the risk taken. I see BUD with more upside potential
than downside risk. I will take more call option contracts for $65.00 at a premium of
$195.00. they have appreciated 15% in the past 24 hours. This is a conservative low beta
low risk options trade. Buy low, sell high !
EXPLAINED: Calculation for CFD Brokerage with Anheuser ExampleHow do I calculate the brokerage I'll pay on a local CFD trade?
You’ll need to calculate the brokerage you’ll pay to enter your trade and the brokerage you’ll need to pay to exit your trade.
We’ll first need to lay out all the necessary information to calculate what brokerages you’ll pay…
For this example, we’re going to use a trade example with Anheuser Busch InBev.
And we’ll use the brokerage of 0.30% leg in (entry) and 0.30% leg out (exit) to pay.
Here are all the specifics needed for this trade:
Portfolio value: R40,000
Trade: JSE:ANH
Type: Long (buy)
Brokerage rate in: 0.30%
Brokerage rate out: 0.30%
Entry: R1,184.00
Stop loss: R1,143.00
Take profit: R1,215.00
Calculation #1: Calculating your ENTRY brokerage with CFDs
Step #1: Know what your max portfolio risk is per trade
Max % risk = (Portfolio value X 2%)
= (R40,000 X 2%)
= R800
Step #2: Find out the rands risked in trade
Rands risked = (Entry – Stop loss)
= (R1,184.00 – R1,143)
= R41.00
Step #3: Calculate the number of CFD contracts to trade
No. CFDs = (Max % risk ÷ Rands risked)
= (R800 ÷ R41.00)
= 19.51
SIDE NOTE: We always round down the number of CFDs, so that we risk less than what we choose to risk instead of more.
Therefore, we will buy 19 CFDs in this specific trade.
Step #4: Calculate your ENTRY exposure for the CFD trade
Entry exposure = (Entry price X No. CFDs)
= (R1,184 X 19 CFDs)
= R22,496
Brokerage in = (Entry exposure X Broker rate in)
= (R22,496 X 0.30%)
= R67.48
This means, you’ll need to pay a brokerage of R67.48 in order to buy (go long) 9 Anheuser CFDs.
Now we can move onto the next brokerage leg.
Calculation #2: Calculating your EXIT brokerage with CFDs
Step #1: Work out your EXIT exposure for the CFD trade
Exit exposure = (Exit price X No. CFDs)
= (R1,215 X 19 CFDs)
= R23,085
Step #2: Calculate your brokerage leg out
Brokerage out = (Exit exposure X Broker rate out)
= (R23,085 X 0.30%)
= R69.25
Step #3: Calculate the total brokerage for the CFD trade
Total brokerage = (brokerage leg in + Brokerage leg out)
= (R67.48+ R69.25)
= R136.73
This means, if the trade hit your take profit level you would have ended up paying a total brokerage of R136.73 for your Anheuser CFD long trade.
ABINBEV ready to break up and beyond to 76.38Scallop pattern has formed on the daily.
It hasn't created the pattern fully and a breakout is important to wait for.
The problem is before the Scallop there was an extended Rectangle pattern with a little range.
This box formation could take place again as companies tend to have their own trading personality.
Until the breakout occurs, it's a risky position to be in.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target 76.38
ABOUT THE COMPANY
AB InBev (Anheuser-Busch InBev) is a multinational beverage and brewing company headquartered in Leuven, Belgium.
The company was formed in 2008 through the merger of Belgium-based InBev and American-based Anheuser-Busch.
AB InBev is the largest beer producer in the world, with a portfolio of over 500 beer brands sold in more than 150 countries.
Some of the company's most well-known brands include Budweiser, Corona, Stella Artois, and Beck's.
The company has a market capitalization of over HKEX:160 billion (as of April 2023).
AB InBev has 155,000 employees worldwide and operates 170 breweries across the globe.
The company is known for its aggressive acquisition strategy, having acquired several major beer companies over the years, including SABMiller in 2016.
Diageo plc (DGE.l) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart in the UK company Diageo plc (DGE.l). Diageo plc is a British multinational alcoholic beverage company. It is a major distributor of Scotch whisky and other spirits. Distilleries owned by Diageo, produce 40% of all Scotch whisky with over 24 brands, such as Johnnie Walker, J&B and Vat 69. Its leading brands include Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, Baileys liqueur, Captain Morgan rum and Tanqueray and Gordon's gin. The Triangle broke through the resistance line on 23/03/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 15 days towards 3 739.00 GBX. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 3 438.50 GBX if you decide to enter this position.
If you believe that markets are even vaguely efficient, then over the long term you'd expect a company's share price to follow its earnings per share (EPS) outcomes. That means EPS growth is considered a real positive by most successful long-term investors. Diageo managed to grow EPS by 7.3% per year, over three years. While that sort of growth rate isn't anything to write home about, it does show the business is growing.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals and cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Triple Bottom on the RSI? Inverse Head & Shoulder?Since Tinley has broken down from a Descending Triangle / Bearish Flag pattern, which outlined in dark red, it appears as though Tinley may have created a Triple Bottom on the RSI.
It looks like an Inverted Head & Shoulders where I have the Blue arrow pointing sideways on the RSI, and at the same time could be a Triple Bottom if there's continued bullish momentum.
The bottom of the descending triangle pattern is where I expect to see a potential bounce 2, if Tinley can release any substantial news there's merit for bullish price movement back into the pattern or slicing through it like butter.
I expect to see rejection or some heavy resistance preventing Tinley from breaking above were the Green arrow ends upward.
The RSI is so oversold on a 1 year chart it's hard not to consider this a screaming buy with blood on the streets, especially considering pending news announcements that could be quite significant in terms of shaping the company's direction going forward.
On a 1 month chart TNY bounced off the 200 Day MA & is currently trading above it.
TNY Update.Today's move is nice to see everyone, but we're still looking at a lower high on a macro level since Dec 2018.
That may not seem macro to some investors, which is fine, but it's still important to note in regards to charting. All information helps, especially in hindsight when trying to learn new trading methods, I guess I'm speaking for myself.
Anyway, a follow up news release may still be required to prevent the shorts from playing whack a mole.
For a meaningful higher low I'd say the safest area is above the Dec low, and that's where we have a recent lower high as well. If we can get up to 47c in the next few trading sessions it would be a nice V shape recovery.
Time will tell per usual.
DEO breaks out of ascending triangle to gap above .50 FibEstablish long position now and accumulate strongly if shares break above 143.75.
DEO shares rose 1.33% on 11/8 and closed near the top their range, forming a bullish pin candlestick. This comes after having opened significantly higher (>$3) than the previous close, leaving a gap around $140 that may enact some gravitational pull on share prices in the near-term. This risk is far outweighed, in my view, by looks to be a break out out from an ascending triangle continuation pattern, an interpretation which would allow shares to move quickly higher into 2019 as they reclaim and then far outpace the appreciation they enjoyed in September.
- Bullish cross of DI+ above DI- reflect the lower highs and higher lows throughout October, a classic sign of an ascending triangle continuation pattern. After a brief but intense period of consolidation, the buying pressure in the stock has finally 'won' out, and yesterday's bullish
- While ADX continues to decline further below 20, this is acceptable in my view given the large positive and negative swings associated with triangle consolidation. Note: ADX measures strength (but not direction) of trends, and levels below 20 are generally associated with weakening or non-trending (rangebound) shares. This is technically the weakest part of the chart, and improvement in this line back above 20 would give strong incremental confirmation of the potential bullish continuation.
- I still think some shares are definitely worth buying before this occurs. Looking closer at ADX, the rate of decline has been decelerating over the past week, and the rightmost edge of the line has just shown a minor but undeniable inflection back into an upward slope.
- MUCH MORE IMPORTANT (and more intuitive), the movement of the ADX line shows visible correlation with the green DI+ line throughout October's ups and down. Since DI+ and D- are measures of trend direction (cumulative recent up moves vs. down moves), the relationship suggested strong commitment from Bulls throughout the month of October, 'stepping up' to fuel brief recoveries while not strong enough to notch higher highs (hence Rising Triangle).
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Rough Notes:
*** The idea is that these mini-rallies, with the DI+ crossing above DI-), create pent-up volume...confirmed in BOTH signals... would lvoe to have three but might as well take a chance now...shares look cheap, The one bar outside the triangle suggested
Current share prices of are ALMOST EXACTLY EQUIDISTANT in upside/downside between 52-week high and low.
at first that the bears shows INDECISION, another debatably positive sign in my view
(Bulls are 'stepping up' to meet selling pressures).
- This correlation is a notable change from September, when a sub-20 and weakening ADX line failed to confirm the short-term lift
- There are several obvious
recovery in DEO. Note that the signal was falsely
- Last but not least we see a consistent building in On-Balance-Volume (OBV), a leading price and volume indicator that may be interpreted as "Smart Money". Just as we saw in ABX, OBV did NOT confirm the pre-October run-up in DEO shares, and I note
current declines are reflecting recent consolidation in the stock as bears give up their tough
is acceptable in this case as triangle's are precursors
giving further support to the ascending triangle interpretation,
- More notably, a close
- Above logic may imply ...
-
Bitcoin - Drunk Daily PlayAlright guys, I am drunk. Probably alcohol is a bad idea.
Anyways, according to these fancy Waves, Lines, and Fibonacci numbers, it seems that I am hoping to play a short position from the confirmed Wave 2 (Minute) position.
Looking for strong confirmation signals of continued bearish trend from the 0.236 Retracement level of the previous Wave 1 (Minute) movement. It will be even better if we see some shit like Shooting Star Doji just barely above 55EMA on 1 hour charts where the presumed Wave 3 (Minute) seeks to find its footing .
~$8729 should be the FINAL target movement from that position - being conservative. I don't trust the Fin MMs.
Good night you guys.!
Iconic Brands + Christie Brinkley + huge alcohol market = winnerIconic Brands has seen a healthy past few months, holding in a fairly tight trading pattern after a very impressive move up from the $0.000x range. The 2016 annual financials have been posted and of particular interest is the section that discusses debt settlement and terms being worked out to a fixed conversion of shares and not the typical toxic death spiral.
www.iconicbrandsusa.com <- worth checking out. Expecting some major growth throughout 2017.