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Alexander_nikitin

Gbpcad back into trend after false breakoutA very nice setup here, trader. We had a series of impulses in downward direction. This is the definition of a trend. then we had a most resent HL violation to the downside. This is the defenition of the sign of reversal. And instead of continueing moving upward installing other upward impulses priceaction makes a new structure low. This is the classic defenition of a false breakout. It is very likely for down trend to resume. Moreover, if you look close at priceaction you would notice a cypher pattern. Good luck.
Short
by Alexander_Nikitin
1
Invalid bat but I am in.Hey, traders. Priceaction made a NSH above recent highs. This tells me about a new up-trend installed. It was not a bad idea to enter at 0.886 correction of the last impulse leg in anticipation of the trend to continue. So I did it using this bat pattern. My stops are below X at 1.13XA. As we see priceaction penetrated the X-point. Although my stops were not hit the whole idea of up-trend continuation now is invalid. So, I do not recommend you to enter long here. Use this idea for educational perposes only. check the related ideas links to see how good this kind of setups work). Press like if you find the information useful. Subscribe in order to recieve my ideas in advance.
Long
by Alexander_Nikitin
1
BAMM and BAT tradesHey, traders. Recent HL was violated to the downside. Not a downward trend yet bur a sign of probable reversal. Being a part of bat pattern this kind of setup is called BAMM (Bat Action Magnet Move). BAMMS usually traded in anticipation of BAT completion. This time BAMM rules coinside exactly with 2618 trade rules. After BAT pattern is completed there's a high probability of of price to resume the overall uptrend. I'm going to sell gbpusd at 0.618 and buy it back at D-point. Moreover I'm going to buy another unit at D-point to initiate BAT trade. This technique is known as stop-and-reverse technique. Hope you find the information useful to empower your trading skills.
by Alexander_Nikitin
12
Trend continuation with bat patternWe identify trend by two impulses in one direction separated by a correction. Correction is whatever priceaction within previous impulse's range. Violation of the final point of whatever impulse is continuation of the trend. Violation of the initial point of whatever impulse is a sign of trend reversal. Usually trends are only two impulses long. So by the time you have a confirmation of trend - it is almost over. That's why I stronly recomend you to take part of your position as soon as price action hits 0,382AD. If you close half at 0,382AD - it is enough to cover all your losses from previous trades, so the second part is your pure profit (net profit). I'm not a fan of moving stops to breakeven because it is not technically supported. My rule places stops beyond the impulse's border but entry point is within impulses range. The awareness of risking half instead of whole is enough)). Cheers.
Short
by Alexander_Nikitin
3
Thoughts about BAT pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part XIV.Hello, everyone. Welcome back to another edition of "thoughts about bat pattern". Today we'll continue discussing bat pattern types. We'll look at SNSI and SFSI types. They are very similar to HSNSI and HSFSI I talked in my last edition: As you see the difference is only in XA leg. With that being said let's skip to some statistics. As usual I will first remind you the avarage success rate of bats for eurusd , gbpusd and audusd. By success rate I mean the probability of price action to hit 0,382AD BEFORE 1,113XA. It is critical! So, average success rate for bats: On eurusd it is 53,52%, gbpusd – 52,39%, audusd – 51,53%. We have these results if we trade ALL the bats we can find. I’ve been testing SNSI and SFSI on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd , gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: SNSI: On eurusd I found 30, on gbpusd – 28 and on audusd – 28. Not very frequent type. SFSI: On eurusd I found 9, on gbpusd – 12 and on audusd – 9. A rare type. Success rate: SNSI: On eurusd it is 40%, on gbpusd – 57,14%, on audusd – 35,71%. SFSI: On eurusd it is 77,77%, on gbpusd – 33,33%, on audusd – 44,44% As you see trading SNSI type only on gbpusd and trading SFSI only on eurusd is a way to improve your trading results. Aussie is not friendly to either of these types)) Ok, mates. That is all for today. Next time I will explain HSNDP and HSFDP. If you find the information interesting – click “thumb-up”. If you don’t want to miss the next edition – subscribe. Hope to see you again.
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
1
Back into the trend with HSNSI BAT patternBlue arrows = impulses, voilation or retest of previous move's range. Red arrow = corrections, priceaction within previous move's range. Trend = at least two impulses of same direction with a correction between them. Consolidation = at least two impulses of same direction with an impulse of opposite direction between them. Price moves in trends. A trend remains active untill it shows the sign of reversal. Sign of reversal = violation of the initial point of the last trend's impulse.
Long
by Alexander_Nikitin
4
Thoughts about BAT pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part XIII.Hey, traders. Welcome back to another edition of "thoughts about BAT pattern". Today we'll continue to discuss bat pattern types. We already know about Four types: HSNSP see it here: SNSP see it here: HSFSP see it here: SFSP see it here: These four have two common features. Their CD leg is not interrupted by a retracement more than 0,382AB and their A and B points don't form a double top/bottom. Today we'll take too more types: HSNSI and SFNSI. All the features and notes are drawn on the chart. Here I will only give some statistics. As usual I will first remind the avarage success rate of bats for eurusd, gbpusd and audusd. By success rate I mean the probability of price action to hit 0,382AD BEFORE 1,113XA. It is critical! So, average success rate for bats: On eurusd it is 53,52%, gbpusd – 52,39%, audusd – 51,53%. We have these results if we trade ALL the bats we can find. I’ve been testing HSNSI and HSFSI on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd , gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: HSNSI: On eurusd I found 47, on gbpusd – 60 and on audusd – 67. One of the most frequent types) HSFSI: On eurusd I found 42, on gbpusd – 25 and on audusd – 38. Less frequent type. Success rate: HSNSI: On eurusd it is 48,93%, on gbpusd – 55%, on audusd – 47,76%. HSFSI: On eurusd it is 47,61%, on gbpusd – 60%, on audusd – 36,84% As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on gbpusd and less than average success rate on eurusd and on audusd . Trading this type on gbpusd and not trading it on eurusd and on audusd is a way to improve trading. Ok, mates. That is all for today. Next time I will explain SNSI and SFSI. If you find the information interesting – click “thumb-up”. If you don’t want to miss the next edition – subscribe. Hope to see you again.
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part XII.Hey, traders. I’m back and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll continue discussing bat pattern types. I’ll talk about HSFSP and SFSP types. First, I will remind you average success rate of bat pattern. One has this rate if he trades EVERY bat he can find. As usual, three pairs for illustration: On eurusd it is 53,52%, gbpusd – 52,39%, audusd – 51,53%. Now, the types’ features 1) HSFSP: Let’s decode the name. “HS” – XA is interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. “F” – BC is not straight. “S” – A and C don’t form double top/bottom. “P” – CD is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. I’ve been testing HSFSP on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd, gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: On eurusd I found 22, on gbpusd – 16 and on audusd – 22. Not very frequent type) Success rate of HSFSP type: On eurusd it is 45,45%, on gbpusd – 37,5%, on audusd – 59,09%. As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on audusd and less than average success rate on eurusd and on gbpusd. Trading this type on audusd and not trading it on eurusd and on gbpusd is a way to improve trading. 2) SFSP: Let’s decode the name. “S” – XA is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. “F” – BC is not straight. “S” – A and C don’t form double top/bottom. “P” – CD is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. I’ve been testing SFSP on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd, gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: On eurusd I found 15, on gbpusd – 17 and on audusd – 8. Not very frequent type, either Success rate of SFSP type: On eurusd it is 60,00%, on gbpusd – 47,05%, on audusd – 35,50%. As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on eurusd and less than average success rate on audusd and on gbpusd. Trading this type on eurusd and not trading it on audusd and on gbpusd is a way to improve trading. Ok, mates. That is all for today. Next time I will explain HSNSI. If you find the information interesting – click “thumb-up”. If you don’t want to miss the next edition – subscribe. Hope to see you again.
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
10
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part XI.Welcome back, traders. It’s Wednesday and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll continue discussing bat pattern types. Today we’ll talk about SNSP type. SNSP bat type is the most perfectly looking bat type. Let’s decode the name. “S” – XA is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. “N” – BC is straight. “S” – A and C don’t form double top/bottom. “P” – CD is not interrupted by a deep (at least 0,382AB) retracement. I will remind you average success rate of bat pattern. As usual, three pair for illustration: On eurusd it is 53,52%, gbpusd – 52,39%, audusd – 51,53%. These results we’ll have if we trade EVERY bat pattern we can find. I’ve been testing SNSP on M5 TF on 4-year period data and got the following features (I will only talk about eurusd, gbpusd and audusd as examples): Frequency: On eurusd I found 22, on gbpusd – 25 and on audusd – 28. Not very frequent type) Success rate of SNSP type: On eurusd it is 72,72%, on gbpusd – 52,00%, on audusd – 64,28%. As you see this pattern has more than average success rate on eurusd and audusd and less than average success rate on gbpusd. Trading this type one eurusd and audusd and not trading it on gbpusd is a way to improve trading. (To tell the truth, gbpusd in not very much friendly to bats)) Ok, mates. That is all for today. Next time I will explain HSNSI. If you find the information interesting – click “thumb-up”. If you don’t want to miss the next edition – subscribe. Hope to see you again. To know more about the way of differentiating bat types, visit Part X (link is attached as related idea)
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part X.Welcome back, traders. It’s Wednesday and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll continue discussing bat pattern types. Or… If we treat bats a vivid creatures I’d better say species)). In my last edition I told you mostly how I discovered types but not about the types themselves. I got lots of feedback and messages asking me to explain the rules of distinguishing the types. So, I decided to start from the very beginning. For the sake of simplicity I will only explain one type per edition. Let’s get it started then. But first, remember the critiria of distinguishing: 1. Is the pattern bullish or bearish? 2. Is XA straight or not straight? (“S” or “HS”) 3. Is BC straight or consolidating? (“N” or “F”) 4. Does A and C correlation form a double top/bottom or single top/botto? (“D” or “S”) 5. Is CD straight or not straight? (“I” or “P”) Now I should explain what I mean saying “straight”. When I say “straight” I mean the move is not in terrupted by a specific size retracement. This size equals min BC requirement or 0,382AB. I usually use square tool to establish the needed range. Then I just drag the square to the place I neeed to check. Or I clone it. Sometimes I just measure the amount of pips in 0,382AB and then measure the retracements within bat’s legs. Square tool is the most convinient). See picture 1. If we have XA leg containing this size retracement then XA is marked “HS”. If we don’t have retracement of this size then XA is marked “S”. The same rule is for CD leg. If CD is interrupted by 0,382AB size retracement it is marked “I”. If not, then it’s marked “P”. What is straight or not straight BC? It’s just a comparison with AB. Does BC look more consolidataing than AB or vice versa. Counting bar may help here. If AB has 2 bars while BC has 5 – we almost always have an “F” type BC. “F” type BC form cnannels, triangles, wedges while AB serves as a Flag staff. If AB is consolidation also – then we won’t have “F” type BC but “N” type. Remember, we are to compare the two legs. They either move with equal speed (sometimes BC moves faster) or BC moves slower. First scenario is for “N” type, second is for “F”. You are to train your eyes to see the proportions. Note that BC cannot be one-bar move (it invalidates the whole pattern). I use Jason Stapleton’s rules for distinguishing double top/bottom when compare A and C placement. Ok, suppose you have a bat pattern. To find out what type it is you are to answer the list of 5 questions I enumerated above. Now you can distinguish type by yourself. Let’s discuss the types in details. Last time I started discussing HSNSP and SNSP. I briefly described their features. Having lots of requests from my subscribers asking me to explain each type in more details I decided to explain these types once again. From now on I will explain one type per edition.... SEE continuation in comments... Tradingview doesn't allow too long descriptions))
Education
by Alexander_Nikitin
3
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part VIII.Welcome back, traders. It’s Wednesday and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll discuss some specific way of trading BATS. I call it BBS. What does this abbreviation mean? It stands for Back to Back Setup. I was first discovered by me when I was backtesting Gartleys. I have noticed one interesting thing. Sometimes gartleys appear very close to each other. One gartley’s AD may serve as another gartley’s XA. After that second gartley 8 times of 10 I osbserved a huge movement going much further than my secondary targets. I called it DGS – double gartley setup. But then I found the same formation while testing cyphers and bats. I also found that different patterns may be combined. The first is gartley and the second is bat or cypher and vice versa. So I changed the name of the setup and called it BBS. Studying this phenomenon I came to a conclusion that these formations take place in consolidation periods. The consolidation being bordered by trendlines shows channels, flags, triangles and wedges. So these huge movements were classic channels, flags, triangles or wedges breakouts. On the chart above presented one of these setups. I minimized it so you can see the flag itself. May be you’ll have some problems differentiating bats. In this case just maximize the chart pressing ‘+’ button. As you can see price went lower than the second Bat’s X to retest the lower border of a flag and then went skyrocket. Make sure that your stops are not just below X but also below the border of a flag, triangle or wedge formation. In these formations borders serve like magnets. So, if your stop is not beyond the border there’s a high probability that it’ll be triggered. On this particular chart 1,113XA, my regular Bat stop placement, was touched. Luckily, I already knew about this setup and placed stops beyond the lower border. To maximize my profits I adjust my targets from C-point retest to A-point retest keeping in mind that A-point is an opposite side of a channel. Although a flag breakout in the direction of the overall trend has a high probability of success, I prefer to take profits at the border. Classic flag strategies presuppose taking profit measuring the flag’s staff. It’s done the same way as AB=CD pattern traders look for D point. So you can maximize you profits even further. Trying to catch such big moves you are to protect what you have already earned. So, trailing stops to structure won’t be a bad idea. Test it to find the best way of maximizing profits. Well, I think it’s all for today. Press like and subscribe if you want me to keep on posting this stuff. If you are new to these series you are welcome to check previous editions: Hope to see you next Wednesday. P.S. Pattern traders, look close to this BBS:
by Alexander_Nikitin
9
Thoughts about bat pattern. Some tips and secrets. Part VII.Welcome back, traders. It’s Wednesday and we have another edition of “Thoughts about Bat pattern”. Today we’ll talk about a very weird thing called BAMM. My backtesting, forward testing and real trading pointed to a very interesting phenomenon. I have noticed that when price action violates B-point, it usually goes to 0,886XA to complete the bat pattern. Of course, C-point should be in its place before price action violates B)). For bear bats violation means a Higher High and Higher Close above B. For bull bats – Lower Low and Lower Close below B. This phenomenon was first described by the founder of Bat Pattern, Scott Carney. He called it BAMM. It stays for Bat Action Magnet Move. And it really works as it is called – like a magnet. Well, I repeat the idea: when B-point is violated the bat pattern usually completes. This gives us an edge, don’t you think? We have a higher probability of one thing happening over another. How can we trade it? We can trade it as a classical breakout strategy or we can trade it like a 2618. In first strategy we place our limits at B-point after the breakout and wait for a pull back to enter. In 2618’s we stretch fibs from the high/low of double top/bottom to a high/low of a breaking candle and place limits at 0,618 retracement to enter. I use the second method because I truly believe that market respects fibs)). So, what my BAMM strategy looks like? First I need to introduce a new point. I will call it “E”. It’s the high/low of a breaking candle. Suppose I am tracing a bear bat completion. After C-point completes I wait for a B-point violation. When I have a HHHC-candle I stretch fibs from C-point to this candle’s high (E-point). I place limit orders at 0,618CE and stops at 1,113CE. I use D-point as take profit. I close half of my position at E-point retest and move stops of the other half to breakeven. If price goes higher without triggering the entry, I restretch the fibs from C to a new E and modify my limit. If price hits D before 0,618CE then I delete my orders. I use stop and reverse technique to enter short when pattern completes. It means I sell two units. The first unit closes my long position and the second opens my short. For bull bats everything is vice versa. Note I use a combination of BAMM and Bat pattern strategies. Let’s look at some outcomes. If a bat pattern completes my BAMM wins and triggers my Bat entry. Trading Bats along I either have my Bat entries win or lose. Combining with BAMM I have a winning BAMM and a winning Bat or a winning BAMM and a losing BAT. Note that BAMM always wins when pattern completes. If BAMM loses then Bat pattern never completes and I delete my Bat entries. Ok, that’s all for today. Hope you find my edition useful. If so, press “like” and “follow” and I will give you much more. See the related ideas link to check my other editions
by Alexander_Nikitin
10