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Alexboltyan

EUR/USD Rebounds from Two-Month Low, Focus on Fed's PowellThe EUR/USD pair managed to regain some of the lost ground on Friday after sliding to its lowest level in nearly two months earlier on the day. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0795 area, up 0.24% on the day, but on track to print a 0.49% weekly loss. A slight improvement in market mood, a technical correction and week-end profit-taking have helped the EUR/USD to trim losses and bounce toward the 1.0800 area. Optimism surrounding the US debt-ceiling negotiations has been the main driver amid hopes that US policymakers could strike a deal in the next few days, avoiding a catastrophic default. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) Economic Bulletin noted that price pressures remain strong while wage pressures have strengthened, further fueling expectations that the central bank will have no choice but to keep raising rates. Across the pond, Federal Reserve President Jerome Powell will participate in the "Perspectives on Monetary Policy" panel before the Thomas Laubach Research Conference hosted by the Fed. His words will be closely watched by investors looking for clues on the Fed's next move. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD holds a negative short-term bias, according to indicators on the daily chart. On the weekly chart, however, the bearish outlook is not quite clear, as indicators hover above their midlines, although gaining downward slopes. The negative perspective has strengthened since the EUR/USD pair lost simultaneously support from the 1.0800 psychological level and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), hitting fresh two-month lows at 1.0760. Loss of the latter would target the 1.0700 psychological area. On the other hand, recovering the 1.0800 area could ease the immediate pressure on the EUR/USD, putting the 1.0900 back on buyers' radar.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
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Gold Plummets To Lowest In Six Weeks As Dollar Remains UnbeatablGold prices slumped on Thursday, with the spot price falling to its lowest level since early April, as the dollar continues to rally on the back of sour market mood and higher US Treasury bond yields. At the time of writing, spot price XAU/USD is trading at $1,955 an ounce, recording a 1.32% loss on the day and charting the third daily red candle in a row and the sixth decline out of the last seven days. The rise of US Treasury yields across the curve continues to underpin the greenback, especially against the precious metal, which does not offer returns to holders. The rate on US 10-year note climbed for a fifth straight date to 3.64%. The dollar has staged a sound recovery over the last weeks as expectations the Federal Reserve will halt its tightening cycle have already been digested and priced in. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 69% probability for the Fed to keep rates unchanged in June. The market has moved from a rate cut to another on-hold decision for the July meeting, with over 62% odds. From a technical standpoint, the XAU/USD pair holds a negative perspective according to indicators on the daily chart, which point lower in negative territory without giving signs of exhaustion yet. At the same time, the price continues to print lower lows as it moves away from record highs. The next and critical support area is given by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), currently around $1,927, followed by the $1,900 level. On the other hand, if the metal manages to reclaim $2,000, it could improve the short-term outlook.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Drops to Lowest Level in a Month, Threatens Key 100 DMAThe EUR/USD pair dropped further on Wednesday, touching its lowest level in over a month as the dollar continues to profit from the risk-off environment. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0820 zone, 0.4% below its opening price, after hitting its lowest level since April 3 at 1.0810. Despite encouraging news regarding the United States debt ceiling, the market sentiment remained suppressed. President Joe Biden met with lawmakers on Tuesday and stated they could strike a deal by the end of the week. US Treasury yields remain on the rise across the curve, further fueling the dollar's rally. The 10-year note rate climbed for a fourth consecutive day to reach 3.570%. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) members remain split regarding the path of interest rates, which seems to be weighing on the euro. Swap markets suggest a 25 bp hike is already fully priced in for the June meeting, with probabilities of an equal increase in July rounding 60%. On Wednesday, data from the Eurozone showed the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation rate was downwardly revised to 0.6% in April, advocating in favor of ECB doves. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD short-term technical outlook has turned full-on negative according to indicators on the daily chart and on smaller timeframes. After breaking below the 1.0900 area, the price is now on track to challenge the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which is reinforcing the 1.0800 support zone. If the EUR/USD breaks below the 1.0800 zone, it could accelerate losses targeting the 1.0750 level. Conversely, a recovery of the 1.0900 psychological and Fibonacci resistance level could improve the short-term structure, aiming at the 1.1000 level.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Recovery Falters At 1.0900, Keeps ST Negative BiasThe EUR/USD pair staged a short-lived bounce on Tuesday, but it was rejected from the 1.0900 area despite encouraging Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0865 zone, a few pips below its opening price, after hitting an intraday high of 1.0904. The Eurozone released the preliminary first-quarter GDP numbers, which showed the bloc's economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.3%, in line with expectations. Additionally, the employment change was +1.7% in the same period. On the other side of the Atlantic, US retail sales came in below expectations, with the headline figure growing 0.4% in April versus the 0.7% increase expected. Following the release of Retail Sales, US Treasury yields made a U-turn and now trade with marked gains across the curve, boosting the dollar and weighing on the EUR/USD pair. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD short-term bias has turned slightly bearish according to indicators on the daily chart, which have crossed their midlines and stand in negative territory. Furthermore, the price has fallen below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and remains unable to reclaim the 1.0900 level, skewing the risk to the downside. A break above 1.0900 could pave the way toward the 1.1000 zone en route to 2023 highs at the 1.1095 zone. On the flip side, the loss of the 100-day SMA at 1.0800 would deteriorate the short-term scenario, exposing the 1.0750 area. From a broader perspective, the EUR/USD pair maintains a positive view while above the 200-day SMA, currently at 1.0460.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Gold Prices Rebound as Dollar Rally Takes a PauseGold prices started the week on a positive note following three consecutive days of losses as the dollar's rally takes a breather. In the absence of high-tier economic data, a technical correction alongside receding market jitters have paused the gold decline. At the time of writing, spot gold XAU/USD is trading at $2,015 an ounce, 0.30% above its opening price. Last week, renewed worries surrounding the United States debt ceiling negotiations and the banking sector triggered a solid rally in the US dollar. However, the yellow metal remained under pressure despite the sour market mood and lower Treasury yields. Looking ahead this week, investors will continue to focus on debt ceiling discussions, banking sector worries, Fed expectations, and economic data for direction. From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair holds a broader positive bias, although, in the short term, the yellow metal is losing momentum according to indicators on the daily chart. Both the RSI and MACD are trading flat right above their midlines. At the same time, the price hovers above the critical $2,000 level and within striking distance of its record highs, maintaining the risks tilted to the upside. The spot price is being contained by the 20-day SMA on the downside, currently at $2,008, followed by the psychological $2,000 level and the $1,975 area. On the other hand, the immediate resistance area is seen around $2,025, followed by the $2,050 zone ahead of the all-time highs in the $2,070-75 region.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Hits One-Month Lows, Short-Term Perspective DeterioratesThe bearish pressure mounted on EUR/USD this week as the dollar benefitted from deteriorated market mood amid banking sectors concerns and US debt ceiling woes. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0855 area, posting a 0.54% daily loss after hitting a fresh one-month low of 1.0848. The pair fell four out of the five trading days this week, which left it on track to record a 1.5% weekly decline. The euro braces for its worst weekly performance versus the dollar since September. The US dollar took a hit on Wednesday after data showed the US Consumer Price Index inflation rate came in lower than expected, boosting expectations of a pause by the Federal Reserve. However, later in the week, banking sector and debt ceiling discussions deteriorated market sentiment, benefiting the greenback. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD maintains a slightly positive outlook on the weekly chart, as indicators remain in positive territory, although they have turned south. Still, the reiterated failure to overcome the 1.1100 resistance area is a negative sign for the pair in the medium turn. On the daily chart, the outlook has deteriorated, favoring a deeper downward correction. Having broken below 1.0900, the EUR/USD now moves closer to testing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is reinforcing the 1.0800 psychological level. Loss of this area would likely trigger further losses, with 1.0715 as the next support level. On the other hand, the immediate pressure could dissipate if the EUR/USD pair manages to regain the 1.0900 area, which represents a longer-term Fibonacci resistance. Farther north, the next resistance level could be found at the 20-day SMA at the 1.0970 zone ahead of 1.1000 and the cycle highs at around 1.1090.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Gold Prices Drop As US Dollar Strengthens Amidst Cautious MoodThe US dollar gathered pace on Thursday, weighing on gold prices, with the bright metal failing to capitalize fragile market mood following a negative Wall Street opening. On Wednesday, softer-than-expected US inflation data lifted expectations that the Federal Reserve will be pausing its tightening cycle next meeting, putting the dollar under interim pressure. At the time of writing, spot gold XAU/USD is trading at the $2,015/oz area, 0.7% below its opening price and posting the second daily decline in a row. Cautious market mood boosted the greenback amid banking sectors jitters and US debt ceiling concerns. Wall Street main indexes traded mixed, with the S&P 500 and de Dow Jones down, while the Nasdaq remains slightly up on the session. The dollar rallied versus most competitors despite the decline in US bond yields. The US 10-year Treasury note yields 3.382%, with the rate down for a second consecutive day amid higher bond demand. Despite the risk-off mood and lower bond yields, the yellow metal continues to struggle finding buyers, with the price pulling back from record highs and approaching the $2,000 level. From a technical perspective, XAU/USD short-term perspective has turned slightly bearish according to indicators on the daily chart, although the price is resisting above the 20-day SMA, which stands as immediate support at $2,007. Loss of the moving average will expose the $2,000 psychological area, targeting the critical $1,975 region. On the other hand, recovery of the $2,050 zone would improve the short-term outlook, putting focus back on the record highs at the $2,070-75 zone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Recovers Ground After Soft US Inflation DataThe EUR/USD pair is recovering ground on Wednesday amid broad-based dollar weakness on the back of softer-than-expected US inflation figures. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0980 area, recording a 0.13% daily gain following two declines in a row. The US dollar came under pressure on Wednesday and retreated versus most competitors after the Consumer Price Index inflation came in lower-than-anticipated, further cementing expectations the Federal Reserve would pause the tightening cycle next month. The consumer inflation rate came in at 0.4% in April, while the annual rate printed 4.9%, below the 5.0% expected. Core annual inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, eased to 5.5% in the same period from 5.6% the previous month. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed pausing in June has increased to nearly 87% after the inflation report, while the chances of a rate cut in July rose to above 36%. Dovish expectations weighed on US Treasury yields and, therefore, on the dollar. Germany also reported CPI figures earlier on the day, which showed annual inflation steady at 7.2% in April. In contrast to the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) is seen raising rates once again at the next meeting. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a neutral short-term outlook, as indicators have turned flat on the daily chart, while the price remains capped by the 20-day SMA but trades well above the 100- and the 200-day SMAs. The pair needs to recover the 1.1000 level to improve the technical picture, targeting last week’s highs near the 1.1100 level. On the flip side, the immediate support area is seen at the weekly low of 1.0940. Loss of this level could add bearish pressure on the pair, exposing the 1.0900 zone.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD pulls back as US dollar strengthens ahead inflation dataThe EUR/USD pair pulled back on Tuesday as the US dollar strengthened across the board amid a cautious market mood ahead of the highly-anticipated April US consumer inflation numbers to be released on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0960 area, 0.37% below its opening price and recording the second daily decline in a row, having touched a 1-week low of 1.0941. The EUR/USD pair reached the 1.1090 area last week following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise rates on Thursday but was capped ahead of the 1.1100 psychological level and came under pressure at the beginning of the week amid a stronger greenback across the board. On Wednesday, the US will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is expected to show consumer annual inflation rate remained steady at 5.0% in April, while the core rate is seen easing to 5.5% in the same period. Last week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates by 25 bps. However, for the next meeting, the Fed is seen pausing while the ECB is expected to increase rates by another 25 bps. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair holds a short-term neutral to slightly bearish outlook as indicators point lower on the daily chart while the price has fallen below the 20-day SMA but hovers above the longer-term SMAs. On the downside, the next support area is seen at the 1.0940 area, followed by the 1.0900 psychological level. On the other hand, the following resistance levels could be found at the 1.1050 zone, followed by local highs at the 1.1090-95 area. A break above 1.1100 could pave the way toward 1.1185, last visited in March 2022.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Gold Recovers Shine After Finding Support at $2,000Gold recovered shine on Monday after being rejected from the $2,070 area last week as the cautious mood underpinned the yellow metal at the beginning of the week despite the increase in US bond yields. The spot price, XAU/USD, is currently trading at the $2,020 zone, 0.25% above its opening price after the rejection from near-record highs was contained by the $2,000 psychological area. Better-than-anticipated nonfarm payrolls report boosted the dollar on Friday, sending the XAU/USD pair briefly below the $2,000 level. The US economy created 253,000 jobs in April, above the 179,000 expected, while the unemployment rate edged lower to 3.4%. Despite the resilience of the US labor market, markets continue to anticipate the Federal Reserve will remain put when the board meets on June 13-14. The CME FedWatch Tool points to an 88% probability of no change versus 12% of a 25 basis points rate increase. For the July meeting, markets anticipate a 25 bps rate cut with a probability of around 30%. These expectations have kept the greenback on the defensive, favoring the appreciation of the precious metal, which continues to trade within striking distance of its record highs in the $2,070-75 area. From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a short-term bullish outlook according to indicators on the daily chart, although their flat slopes point to a lack of momentum at the time being. At the same time, the price remains above its main moving averages, favoring the positive perspective, targeting record highs. On the other hand, the immediate support level is given by the $2,000 area, followed by the $1,975 zone. If lost, the correction could deepen, with $1,930 and $1,910 as the following supports.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Gold Aims For New Records, Not Without RisksAfter surging and reaching its peak on Thursday's opening, with prices climbing towards the record high area of $2,075, gold prices started to correct lower. Given the levels at which gold is trading and the current market developments, volatility will likely remain elevated. As of writing, the spot price XAU/USD is trading at $2,037, down 0.65% for the day but up by more than $50 during the week. If it closes around these levels for the week, it would be the highest ever for a week. Concerns about the economy, particularly in the US, have increased bets in the bond market that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates as soon as July. On Wednesday, the central bank hiked by 25 basis points to 5.00/5.25%, the highest level since 2007, and signaled a potential pause. Despite the rate hike, the US dollar did not benefit as renewed banking concerns emerged and US yields tumbled. Although the bond market has stabilized for now, another rally could be the key to fresh record highs in gold. However, big moves in one direction in gold will likely be followed by a sharp correction. The US official employment report on Friday is expected to add more fuel to volatility. If the numbers surpass expectations significantly, like ADP on Wednesday, it could boost the US dollar and Treasury yields, making it difficult for gold to reclaim $2,050. On the other hand, a negative report could help prices move higher. Gold faces a risk regarding how much the interest rate market has already priced in rate cuts from the Federal Reserve starting in July. If there is a significant change in expectations, it could trigger a correction in gold prices. From a technical perspective, XAU/USD maintains a bullish outlook according to indicators on the daily chart, which are positive but not yet at extreme levels. The price is well above its main moving averages. Despite pulling back from the record-high area, it remains above $2,000. Above $2,055, gold could recover its shine and head towards record highs again. A break higher should open the doors to $2,100. If the current bearish correction extends, the next strong support stands at $2,010/15, followed by $1,985. The critical area is $1,975, and a daily close below that would signal more losses ahead.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD With Momentum, Testing 1.1100 The EUR/USD pair is holding to recent gains, but still limited by the 1.1100 psychological area. Is it near year-to-day highs and moving with a bullish tone ahead of the European Central Bank’s decision and following the Federal Reserve rate hike on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1065, up 0.10% on the day. The DXY is falling also falling modestly, down for the third consecutive day, testing the 101.00 support area. Lower US yields are weighing on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but signaled a potential pause ahead. The better-than-expected ADP employment report failed to impress traders who are now looking at Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. If those numbers come out well above expectation it could support the dollar, which looks vulnerable across the board, close to key technical levels against many of its rivals. In Europe, the ECB is expected raise interest rates. The question is by how much? It could be 25 or 50 bps. The central bank has few options that remain hawkish, considering the latest inflation numbers and current interest rate levels. The divergence in the near-term perspective between the ECB (hiking further) and the Fed (starting a pause) is a positive for the euro. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD shows a short-term bullish outlook according to indicators on the 4-hour chart as the RSI and MACD are both in positive territory; and price is well above key Simple Moving Averages. The 20-period SMA offers support at 1.1015. A decline under 1.0990 would weaken the outlook, and a confirmation below 1.0950 should point to further losses. On the upside, the 1.1100 area holds the key to more gains. A break above would open the doors to more gains targeting initially 1.1120 and then 1.1160. A false break or a failure to break above would keep the pair in the current range.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Limited Under 1.1050, Supported By 1.0950 The EUR/USD pair rebounded on Tuesday from weekly lows, back above 1.1000, keeping the familiar price range. The euro outperformed ahead of the European Central Bank meeting while the US dollar weakened due to lower US bond yields. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1030, up 0.31% on the day after peaking at 1.1048, more than a hundred pips above the level it had 24 hours ago. Renewed banking concerns, even after the takeover of First Republic Bank, triggered a decline in equity prices on Wall Street and a rally in Treasury bonds. Lower US yields weighed on the greenback. The DXY retreated from three-week highs near 102.50, back to 101.55. Market participants increased their bets of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later in 2023. For Wednesday, they still see the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points. It is expected to be the last rate hike. The FOMC will deliver the statement at 18:00 GMT and then Powell will offer a press conference. There won’t be updated macroeconomic projections from the FOMC staff. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will announce its decision. While a 25 basis point is priced in, a 50 bps hike also seems possible, considering the latest round of Eurozone inflation data. Those hawkish expectations have been supporting the euro. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD holds a short-term bullish outlook after the rebound. However, gains remain limited while under 1.1050. The pair must break and hold firm above to clear the way for 1.1100. The euro rebounded and held above important technical levels like the 20-day Simple Moving Average. A decline under 1.1000 would weaken the near-term outlook for EUR/USD, while a consolidation under 1.0950 would expose the next strong support at 1.0900/10, increasing the odds of a deeper correction.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Gold Remains Sideways Unable to Hold Above $2,000 Gold prices reached levels above HKEX:2 ,000 on Monday but then quickly pulled back to HKEX:1 ,980, remaining in a consolidation phase. At the time of writing, the spot price XAU/USD is trading at HKEX:1 ,987, up 0.28% on the day, after hitting levels under HKEX:1 ,980 during the European session. The improvement in market sentiment after the deal between regulators and JPMorgan that ended the drama with First Republic Bank weighed on the dollar but only briefly. After falling on Monday, it is now posting mixed results, gaining versus the euro and the pound, but falling sharply against the kiwi and the aussie. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised interest rates on Tuesday, and the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will announce their decisions on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. More rate hikes are expected, which could lift yields if their messages are seen as hawkish, potentially pushing gold prices lower. The Fed is expected to raise rates for the last time. On the contrary, a soft tone could trigger a rally in bonds. The RBA's decision shows that there is still room for hawkish surprises as inflation remains elevated in many countries. The latest data from the US shows a slowdown, but at a slow pace. The FOMC decision and economic data (ADP private employment on Wednesday and NFP on Friday) could trigger volatility, challenging the current directionless markets. From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains below the 20-day Simple Moving Average and unable to consolidate above HKEX:2 ,000. If it rises and confirms above, it will change the short-term bias back to bullish. On the contrary, a slide under HKEX:1 ,980 should expose the critical support at HKEX:1 ,970. With the price below the 20-day SMA and technical indicators showing bearish signals, risks are tilted to the downside in the near term, suggesting an extension of the retreat from HKEX:2 ,050. Below HKEX:1 ,970, the next strong support is in the HKEX:1 ,950 area.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
2
EUR/USD Loses Momentum And Drops Below 1.1000The EUR/USD pair has retreated below the 1.1000 zone following Eurozone economic data and on the back of a stronger US Dollar. Additionally, equity markets are falling boosting further the greenback. Markets brace for more data, with German inflation and US Core CPE. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0985, down 0.35% on the day after peaking at 1.1039. The US economy expanded at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter, according to the first estimate. It showed strong consumer and higher inflation indicators. On Friday, the US reports Personal Spending and Income, including the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Also relevant will be the Employment Cost Index. Next week is the FOMC meeting. In Europe, Inflation rebounded in France from 6.7% to 6.9% YoY and in Spain from 3.3% to 4.1%, German figures are due later in the day, expected to show a slowdown considering regional numbers already out. According to the preliminary report, the Euro area expanded marginally during the first quarter. The numbers from Europe add pressure on the European Central Bank to continue rising rates. Next week is the monetary policy meeting and the question is: 25 or 50 basis points. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair maintains an overall bullish bias. However, certain indicators and challenges in holding above 1.1000 suggest the potential for a correction. The pair has been unable to consolidate above 1.1060, and if it manages to do so, it would clear the way to reach 1.1100 and potentially 1.1150. If the EUR/USD slides below 1.0970 in the next few hours, it may suggest further weakness for the euro. Additionally, a daily close below the 20-day Simple Moving Average, which is currently at 1.0960, could trigger a drop to the support area around 1.0900/10. On the other hand, if the euro rises above 1.1030, it should strengthen.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
USD/JPY Unable to Retake 134.00 Ahead of Key US Data and BoJ The USD/JPY pair is falling modestly on Thursday as market participants await crucial US economic data and as the Bank of Japan meeting kicks off. It is trading around 133.45, after being unable to keep 134.00, around the same level it had a month ago. A steady bond market, looking like the calm before the storm, favors limited price action in USD/JPY. US Q1 growth numbers and inflation indicators included in the report, will be watched closely and likely impact on Federal Reserve’s expectations. The numbers could trigger sharp moves in an already volatile bond market. Treasury bond yields were recovering from monthly lows, and renewed market concerns boosted the demand for Treasuries. It even reduced the odds of a rate hike from the Fed next week. Still, market participants see a final 25 basis points hike, but some consider the possibility of a pause. The Bank of Japan will announce its decision on Friday. It is the first meeting under Kazuo Ueda. Consensus points to no change in the monetary policy stance. The meeting could turn out to be a non-event for the yen, but there is room for surprises. Any signal about a probable change in the near term could trigger a yen rally. From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY has been moving with a bearish bias since last week. Currently, the price is approaching key Simple Moving Averages in the daily chart that awaits between 133.30 and 133.00. A close below 133.00 would point to further losses. Initially, the dollar needs to rise above 134.00 to strengthen again. The next resistance is the 134.40 area, and then attention would turn to 135.00. A daily close well above that mark should suggest more advances ahead.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Holds Above Key Support Levels The EUR/USD pair is rising on Wednesday and is back above 1.1000, after erasing Tuesday’s losses. The pair fell from 1.1066 to 1.0963 on Tuesday, only to climb back to the 1.1060 area on Wednesday. The events ahead could add fuel to recent volatility. Overall, it continues to move sideways, within an uptrend, holding above key technical levels and supported by a stronger euro across the board. Expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue raising interest rates are supporting the euro. Even this week, as Eurozone bond yields drop sharply amid a deterioration in market sentiment, the euro is holding well. Incoming inflation and growth data from the Euro area will be watched closely. Also important will be growth figures from the US on Thursday. However, market participants have already decided what will happen next week: they see rate hikes from the Fed and the ECB. Renewed banking concerns after the results of First Republic Bank and a gloomy global growth outlook weighed on sentiment. European markets are falling on Wednesday, and Wall Street futures are mixed. The VIX is up for the second day in a row. The rally in global bonds continues. The German 10-year yield fell to 2.30%, the lowest in two weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.39%, also at two-week lows. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD held above a key short-term uptrend line, currently at 1.0940 and also above the 20-day Simple Moving Average. Risks remain tilted to the upside. However, the pair must hold above 1.1000 and print fresh cycle highs soon, to avoid a deep correction. More gains will target the April monthly high of 1.1075. Above the next resistance is the psychological 1.1100, followed by 1.1120. On the flip side, a daily close below 1.0930 would weaken the outlook, while a break of 1.0900 could point to a double top, suggesting a more pronounced slide ahead.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Gold Backs Away From $2,000 Gold prices are pulling back on Tuesday, after being unable to hold above HKEX:2 ,000 as the dollar recovers some momentum. The DXY is returning to 101.50 even as US Treasury yields slide further. The spot price XAU/USD is trading at HKEX:1 ,982, almost HKEX:20 below the daily high. The US 10-year note yield fell to 3.44%, the lowest level since April 14, while the 2-year yield retreated to 4.06%, also a two-week low. At the same time, equity prices on Wall Street continue to move sideways. Stock futures are falling, erasing Monday’s gains. Market participants await key events ahead. Next week is the FOMC meeting and the US central bank will likely raise rates by 25 basis points. It could be the last hike of the tightening cycle. Prior to the meeting, this week, the US will release critical data including on Thursday the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth with consumer inflation. As markets waver, gold might find it difficult to hold above HKEX:2 ,000 while, at the same time, bearish correction seems limited. On the contrary, a deterioration in market sentiment and rising US yields could send gold sharply lower. From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD is moving with a bearish bias in the very short term, according to technical indicators. Price is staying below the 20-day SMA at HKEX:1 ,996. So far, declines are finding buyers around HKEX:1 ,970. A break lower could trigger more losses, with the next support at HKEX:1 ,960. On the upside, the immediate resistance now stands at HKEX:1 ,990. Above HKEX:2 ,010, the yellow metal should recover momentum and strength, changing the bias to bullish.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Rises Back Above 1.1000The EUR/USD advanced on Monday, reaching the strongest level in ten days, above 1.1000. A higher euro across the board is helping the pair, while the dollar is performing mixed. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1008, up 0.17% above its opening price after topping at 1.1019. European equities and US stock futures are little changed, with the focus primarily on what will happen next week, which includes the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank meetings and the US official employment report. There will be no words from FOCM officials these days (blackout period). Markets are pricing in rate hikes from both central banks. A 25 basis points from the Fed looks like a done deal, considering recent labor market data and the stability in financial markets. It will probably be the last rate hike of the current tightening cycle. Before the meeting, the key report will be on US Q1 GDP growth on Thursday, that also includes consumer inflation. The ECB is seen rising by 25 basis points, but it could also be a 50 basis point. If the odds of a larger rate hike increase, the euro would have scope for extra gains. Inflation and growth data from the Eurozone this week will be watched closely. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD remains with a bullish bias in the short-term, particularly while above 1.0970. A consolidation above 1.1000 would strengthen the positive outlook for the euro. The next target is the 1.1045 resistance, ahead of the April high at 1.1075. The pair is moving slowly at a quiet beginning of the week. A failure to hold above 1.1000 would suggest the pair is not ready for more gains and could likely keep moving sideways between 1.0900 and 1.1000. After that, however, the odds of a sharper bearish correction under 1.0900 would rise significantly.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Remains Limited Below 1.1000The EUR/USD pair advanced modestly on Thursday but overall continues to move sideways in a familiar range as global markets fluctuate in the absence of catalysts and first-tier data. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0965 area, 0.10% above its opening price. On Thursday, the European Central Bank released the March policy meeting accounts, which revealed that most policymakers agreed to raise rates by 50 bps despite acknowledging uncertainty in the current situation. However, the minutes showed that some members would have preferred to delay the increase until financial market tensions had subsided. Other takes showed the growth projections for 2024, and 2025 were weaker than what was previously projected in December. Meanwhile, across the pond, soft U.S. data sparked recession fears. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index came in at -31.3 in April, much worse than expected. In addition, initial jobless claims for the week ended on April 14 printed 245,000, above the 240,000 expected, and the continued claims reached the highest level since November 2021 at 1.865 million in the previous week. U.S. bond yields retreated, with the 10-year yield settling at 3.53%, the lowest in three days. Wall Street main indexes closed in the red. The S&P 500 dropped 0.60%, the Dow Jones lost 0.33%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.80%. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD maintains a short-term bullish bias, although indicators are exhibiting lack of momentum on the daily chart. The RSI and MACD indicators remain in positive territory but with flat slopes, while the pair trades above its main moving averages but capped below the 1.1000 mark. The pair needs to regain the 1.1000 level to target the April monthly high of 1.1075. On the other hand, immediate support levels could be found at the 20-day SMA at around 1.0920 and 1.0900.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
GBP/USD Holds On To Gains Above 1.2400 After U.K. InflationThe GBP/USD pair extended gains into a second day above 1.2400 on Wednesday after higher-than-anticipated United Kingdom inflation figures while the dollar has found it difficult to maintain demand despite the sour market mood. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2440, 0.2% above its opening price. The National Statistics Office of the U.K. released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rate, which came in at 10.1% in March, above the consensus of 9.8%. Meanwhile, the core inflation rate was 6.2%, above the 6% expected. British bond yields rose across the curve as a reaction, supporting the pound’s gains as markets have completely priced in a 25 rate increase by the Bank of England (BoE) at their next meeting. Across the pond, the U.S. bond yields also advanced, with the 10-year yield trading at 3.59% and the 2-year rate at 4.28%. While markets are still digesting inflation and labor market data, according to the WIRP tool, investors are betting on higher probabilities of 85% of a 25 bps hike in the next May 3 meeting. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD maintains a neutral-to-bullish short-term outlook as indicators turned flat on the daily chart but remain above their midlines while the price heads higher above its main moving averages. Next resistance levels could be faced at the 1.2490-1.2500 area, followed by last week’s multi-month peak of 1.2546. On the downside, the 20-day SMA at 1.2390 stands as support ahead of the 1.2300 psychological level.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Gold Retakes $2,000 As Dollar WeakensGold prices resumed the advance after two days of losses as the dollar weakened Tuesday following upbeat economic data from China. At the time of writing, the spot price XAU/USD is trading at the 2005 area, recording a 0.47% daily gain, having bounced from a low of 1991 an ounce. The U.S. bond market stabilized on Tuesday, leaving room for the yellow metal to appreciate modestly. The 10-year note yield fell to 3.57%, while the 2-year rate remained at 4.20%. At the same time, Wall Street managed to reverse early losses, with indexes trading flat by the end of the session. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President, James Bullard, discounted recession odds and favored more rate hikes to counter persistent inflationary pressures. Still, the dollar failed to benefit from these comments. According to the WIRP tool, investors are betting on probabilities of nearly 90% of a 25 basis point rate increase by the Federal Reserve in May but higher chances of a no-hike in the June meeting. Increasing expectations that the Fed might pause its tightening cycle and start cutting rates by the end of the year have pressured the greenback over the last weeks, which has taken gold to near-record-high price levels. From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair maintains the bullish bias according to indicators on the daily chart while the price hovers above its main moving averages. The 20-day SMA offers immediate support at the 1990 area, followed by the 1970 zone. On the flip side, if the price overcomes last week’s highs at around 2050 it would target historic highs in the 2070-75 region.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
EUR/USD Drops Below 1.1000 As Hawkish Fed Bets Boost the USDThe EUR/USD pair retreated for a second straight day on Monday, sliding below the crucial 1.1000 level. Despite the lack of significant data releases, the US dollar remains strong against its competitors, thanks to bullish bets on the Federal Reserve. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0923, 0.63% below its opening price, while the DXY Index is trading at the 102.10 area, recording a 0.54% daily gain. Fed officials have been hitting the wires, boosting hawkish expectations and US yields. The WIRP tool shows that the odds of a 25 bp hike in May rose to nearly 90% from around 70% a week ago. At the same time, small odds of another 25 bp hike in June are back on the table. Against this backdrop, the 10-year note yield rose to 3.60%, the highest level since late March, while the 2-year rate climbed to 4.20%. Caution among investors is also helping the greenback, pushing Wall Street indexes into the red at the beginning of the week. However, equities managed to rebound and closed on positive ground. By the closing bell, the S&P 500 gained 0.33%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.30% and the Nasdaq Composite 0.28%. From a technical perspective, despite recent correction from one-year highs, the shared currency maintains its bullish bias on the daily chart. Indicators have turned lower but remain above their midlines while the price hovers above its main moving averages. The following support level is seen at the 20-day SMA at 1.0890, followed by the last week’s lows at the 1.0830 area. On the other hand, if the bulls regain momentum, the following resistance levels could be found at 1.1000 and 1.1030 ahead of the one-year peak of 1.1075.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst