Alibaba
✅ALIBABA LOCAL LONG/PORTFOLIO ADDITION🚀
✅ALIBABA is trading in a downtrend
Following the company's falling out of favor
With the Chinese Government
And fueled further by the Coming Evergrande collapse
That will drag China down with it
Today, the stock gapped and fell even lower
On the earnings news
However, a massive support level is ahead
At around 128$ per share, and I think
This might be a great local long
With the upside limited by the falling resistance
Also, with the stock trading with 60% discount
It might be a good place to start adding BABA to your long term portfolio
As it is clear that whatever economic storm is coming
Alibaba will be the one candidate to survive it
LONG🚀
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LONG BABA:TRADE OF THE CENTURYLong baba 1@140 & double down limits at 2x130, 4x88 and 8x58.
Possible to hedge with LONG $55 baba put LEAP hedging 5-10% of ur stonk notional.
Also possible to participate in the downside between 140-130 and 130-90 and 90 to 60. these key bear 'breakout' levels smart buyers may want to structure option exposure around and between to take alpha out on the downside.
this is trade of the century - trade time is 12-36m with target of 300-500 depending on ur duration preference.
why? baba is at MACRO supp level at 130-140. bears will NOT take this lvl.
institutional flows are BIG long. goldman, ray dalio, charlie munger, hsbc have ALL doubled down and MAX longed this baba dip (they have opertaions in china & relationship with government hence baba risk is over played.
short interest remains low at 2%
BABA - It's getting hotterBABA has broken through the major resistance level of 144$/sh, and it seems that next week it might touch the next resistance level at 136$/sh.
There should be quite many people who entered the market at the level of 160-170$/sh, while surely there also enough people who entered the stock at much higher levels, and now might be panicking.
The lower it gets, the better it is eventually, because BABA has no debts and with nearly 1B of users, as one of major representatives of Chinese market, cannot just go bankrupt.
Considering mentioned above, those who entered the stock too high, will need to compensate their losses, by acquiring even more stocks, to balance the average purchase price.
The major question now is, at which level shall we expect to enter the compensating portion - at 140$ or will it eventually get as low as 136$ or even 125$.
Please share your ideas in comments.
Alibaba - traders losing patience in a tough marketIn an environment where companies like Nvidia and Microsoft are doing everything right, Alibaba (BABA) seems to be headed in the opposite direction. Granted, the investment cases are vastly different, but when you’re hot you’re hot and when you’re not the negative news is heard far more frequently.
When trading it often pays to follow the flow of capital, and in this case, momentum seems to be the best strategy. Buying strong, selling weak can be beneficial to balance the odds in one’s favour.
BABA is in this camp where bad news has followed the trend lower. Given the slowdown in China’s retail sales and consumption data it's perhaps not a huge surprise that Q2 22 total revenue missed consensus expectations by around 3%. Granted, total revenues did grow 29% YoY but expectations had already been lowered into this earnings report, so the bar to beat was quite low.
In this market, investors are drawn to companies that are consistently beating expectations. BABA isn’t one of them…at least at this stage.
CMR (Customer management revenue) and commission revenue growth of 3% missed consensus, but this was largely a result of soft gross merchandise volume (GMV), which of course is linked to China’s macro backdrop and economic trends. If the share price is going to reverse and trend higher, we need to see signs of consumption picking up. At this stage, the view is we see CMR growing a modest 4-5% in 2H22.
With all these factors at play, perhaps the most pertinent point was that BABA revised its FY2022 revenue guidance to +20-23% YoY, which implies sales will be between Rmb860b-882b - well below consensus expectations of Rmb910.
So, while there were aspects in the numbers to like, on the whole, this was a very disappointing result and the market dumped the stock hard, closing -11.1% - the biggest 1 day fall this year and the second-biggest decline since listing.
Volume was also large, with 61.57m shares traded, over three times the 15-day average. It feels likely that in the session ahead we should see another day of solid volumes, and generally speaking, if I was going to buy this pullback with any real belief, I’d like a couple of days of falling volumes to know the liquidation is done.
Technically, there is not much to inspire the bulls with BABA trading through the 50-day MA and into $141.89, before finding support ahead of the October lows of $138.43. If we see a closing lower low and I’d expect short selling activity to pick up with the stock targeting $118.
BABA is fundamentally cheap
Fundamentally we could argue that even after this downgrade that BABA is trading at a compelling valuation – at 2.29x price to 2022 sales, or 13.9x 2022 earnings one can understand why 55/60 analysts who cover BABA have a ‘buy’ rating on the stock – most would argue this valuation is not representative of the value in its cloud and international business.
BABA’s core commerce business does account for half of the valuation though, and as mentioned, if the stock is going to turn around and head to $228 (the consensus 12-month price target) we’re going to need to see the macro picture in China turn around, consumption to kick up and some of the huge investments made by BABA start to feed into the bottom line.
What will traders potentially do?
For now, we may say this is fundamentally cheap, but with the stock likely in the doghouse in the near term, until we see evidence of a turnaround the trading capital will likely sell rallies into $161.13 (to close the gap) or go outright short on a closing break of $138.43.
BABA - 2nd big fall of the year 2021So it did collapse around 25%, as soon as Earnings were pre-published.
It has nearly reached its earlier minimum of the year and currently stopped at $144/sh.
Although I'm not seeing any clear technical indicators, showing a possible further decline in stock price, this might not yet be the end of fall.
Bad news about Earnings results may have not yet revealed themselves, so we will keep watching.
My perception of Alibaba's weekly stock chartMy perception of Alibaba's weekly stock chart as follows !
After a five-wave with three continuous shares, it enters a correction in the form of a second wave. This is formed as a flat with a big b wave. maybe just it want to make triangle to ready for powerful third wave .. so buying and maintaining it at prices from $ 140 to $ 150 is extremely attractive
Considering the time of the second wave, , it noted that the third wave is the main continuous wave and has very high goals .. maybe above $ 1500 😁 .. so the long holding stock may not be bad .. though it does bother you a little over time
$BABA earnings analysis*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Today my team took a dive into Chinese online and mobile commerce company Alibaba $BABA. It has suffered an immense drop from its 52-week ranged high of $280.61. There are numerous events that factored into this sell-off, but we are not here today to discuss them. Instead we will focus on why $BABA is a hot earnings play for November 18, 2021.
To start, its strong cloud services will likely have shown improvement as they have implemented many new features the past few months to their cloud offerings. This is important because even if they miss earnings tomorrow investors/shareholders may still be encouraged if its cloud strength continues to show progressive results. Another factor that we are fond of is the apparent head and shoulders pattern that is being formed on its chart. This along with a pre-earnings dip of -4% has gotten us very interested in this play.
My team started a long $BABA position today at $161 per share. We will add more shares if a drop occurs, which is possible considering that this is still a fairly risky play.
Our Entry: $161
Take Profit 1: $180
Take Profit 2: $193
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
BABA - it's time to have a good look at AlibabaAlibaba has reached it's lowest point in a very long time.
PE ratio is not very optimistic, but it may to do with the general situation about Evergrande, which seems going bankrupt very soon.
Aliexpress is reported to have more than 900 million (active) users, while Alibaba has several other businesses along, which act as complementary parts for the whole company and doing in general not bad at all.
My expectations are that BABA will start it rise very soon, unless more negative news about Evergrande will come from China.
In case there will be no bad news, very soon BABA reports earnings, and it will in a way determine how the stock will behave,
Generally speaking, it's about the right time to enter BABA, although the most attractive moment has already passed, when it was trading around 140$/sh in October.
Considering very negative scenarios, when both bad news from China will follow and some other matters, such as interruptions in the supply-chain, I believe it won't fall much lower than 130-140$/sh anyway.
This way, waiting may give the opportunity to gain some extra 10-15% percent, but there won't be much more of it, while entering the stock too late, may eventually lead to more long-term losses.
Let's wait to they Earnings day to see what it will bring...
BABA: Alibaba's future looking goodBABA trying to break the resistance line! Looking to crate a higher low, so that we change the down trend! If it breaks the resistance line it will have a great upside move! Also waiting for the results coming out on the 18th which will decide its future! Positive results, will lead BABA faster to the upside move! Big investors and hedge funds are already in, its a matter of time for it to go up
Why Charlie Munger keep on averaging down Alibaba? 11/11/211)On Charts : Charts consist of 3-Dimensions - The X-factor ( Time or Cycle ), The Y- factor ( Price Geometry ), AND The Z-factor ( The Speed ).. 2)On Elliot Wave / Market Structure : Unlike Textbook written rule : ALL Impulsive wave comprise of ONLY a-b-c sub-waves NOT 1,2,3,4,5 waves.. AND there is NO Truncated 5th wave BUT ONLY wrong wave counts...
ALIBABA $BABA gift to you$BABA has been in a downtrend all year 2021. while this has being disappointing to investors, its also the one in 4 years opportunity to buy into this Chinese retail leader at these prices.
I mean 140 $ -160 is your buy zone. it will never be this cheap for a long time.
HARD SUPPORT is at I40$ and that represents the new foundation for this moon shoot. This is a long term play so allocate capital judiciously.
TAKE PROFIT zones should be about 210-220 and 260- 280.
GOODLUCK!!
$BABA | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 11/1Not my favorite setup into the week... but still worth mentioning here. A possible wave 1 is in and looking to retrace on this wave 2. I have indicated my ideal buy box in the $148-155 range is best. If we can hold there with volume, I will consider taking a small long swing, targeting the mid $190s area.
BABA descending channel - Jan 1 thoughtslooking at Fib retracement along the channel trying to gauge a reasonable scenario.
A $130 target for Jan 1 is well within the existing data trend. Looking at options for early Feb in that range.
One caveat is that our last two months are typically big for online retailers, which may buoy BABA a bit.
Alibaba Sheds USD 344 Bn Since October 2020Following the exile of Jack Ma, shares of BABA tumbled down from all-time highs a year ago.
No company has incurred more of a loss in market capitalization than Alibaba in the last year. None have come close to the large figure. Ever since Ma publicly expressed forthright discontent with the financial system of China, investor sentiment around the successful giant has dwindled. The price of shares consequently halved into late September and are still fairly dormant improving to USD 173.
Jack Ma has recently been photographed in the Netherlands browsing agriculture tech after his public reappearance in Spain a week ago. Shares have rallied around 7% ever since. The company's presentation of a new server chip on October 18 has further helped improve share price. The chip is based on advanced 5-nanometer technology designed to support the company's growing cloud computing business.
Alibaba will likely report earnings on November 4th where investors can expect strong business growth, and another revenue beat. Though there are still considerable risks that investors should not ignore, Alibaba should still be a solid pick for the coming years.