THE FUNDAMENTAL LONG PICTURE FOR ALIBABA (BABA)China’s economy is growing at a 6-7% annual rate and is on track to pass the United States as the largest economy in the world within the next decade or two. China’s middle class is made up of 1.3 billion individuals and those individuals are beginning to shop online a lot! In this scenario it only makes sense to own stock in the most dominant Chinese e-commerce company, Alibaba.
You have probably heard of Alibaba referred to as the Amazon (AMZN) of China. The similarities between Alibaba and Amazon don’t stop at online retail. Alibaba, like Amazon, also has a dominant and rapidly growing cloud computing business. In Q4, 2017 its cloud business grew by 104% YoY.
Aside from its already impressive e-commerce and cloud computing businesses, Alibaba also owns a portion of a rapidly growing fintech company called Ant Financial. We think Alibaba is well positioned for the next decade! The e-commerce, cloud computing, and the mobile payment industries should continue to see plenty of growth!
Alibaba’s stock is currently trading at forward-PE of 26. Analysts have forecasted a 5-year EPS growth rate of 29%, assigning Alibaba a PEG of 0.9.
Subscribe to our newsletter at robinhoodstrategy.com
Alibaba
TRON is the gift that keeps on giving! Some fundamental analysisOf all the altcoins recently, tron has been not only holding it's ground but continuing to gain ground while other big coin breakouts have already dipped back down. It exceeded it's projected breakout price target from it's cup and handle pattern days ago, and has since then almost tripled that projected breakout! It seems content on continuing to rise as well. Now that we have no obvious chart patterns to give us an idea of where it will finally dip back down, and the Stoch RSI seems to suggest it still has a little wiggle room to continue upward a bit it's best to examine things going on in the world of TROn on a more fundamental level. First and foremost is their mainnet launch slated I think for May 31st. People are filling their bags with TRX in anticipation of this date and with most release dates the price tends to gradually increase as the date nears and then on the day of it seems a lot of people tend to take their profits and it dips a bit at that point. This will likely also be the case once we reach their main net release date so be prepared for that...it's very similar to the buy the rumor sell the news approach most traders have employed for many decades in other markets.
Another thing increasing the demand for TRX is the constant, ever-prevailing rumors that TRON will be partnering with Alibaba, which are now resurfacing once again in the google news feed. This too could be one of those buy the rumor/sell the news situations which, in this case the only reason you'd have to sell the news is if news came out that ALibaba had decided to partner with another crypto other than TRON. If Alibaba did partner with TRON that is one situation where you would want to buy the news because it would be huge. There are as of now, no solid evidence to point to a definite partnership between the 2, only speculation....but the connections between Justin Sun(creator of TRON), some of his fellow employees, and Jack Ma(Creator of Alibaba), are very much worth considering and can not be overlooked. This article on global coin report does a great job laying out those connections:
globalcoinreport.com
lastly, it's fundamentally important to factor in a couple other big upcoming dates for TRON which this article does nicely as well:
ethereumworldnews.com
Because of all this and the still very green priceaction, I am still for now quite bullish on TRON, but may consider shorting a fractional amount once the Stochastic RSI indicates it's going to be turning back towards the downside. Whether or not you choose to go in on TRON should be completely your own decision as this is not meant to be taken as financial advice. Best of luck and thanks for reading!
Classical Wyckoff Market Cycle example. BABA!Expanding on a previous chart I quickly produced for BABA using simple elliott wave cycle (where I also unloaded 100% of my BABA holdings), it looks like BABA is signalling off a classical wyckoff market cycle.
As the phrase goes, a picture says a thousand words.
Let me show you a picture for reference from my teacher of all things, the internet. Please compare this to the chart above.
d.stockcharts.com
Can you see the similarities?
What happened to QD and potential what's next:QD Chart showing the IPO dip, then the dip on China Regulations. After that a strong trading channel was created. This is the time period when the institutions came into the positions that were reported out in Jan/Feb 2018.
As the reporting period came to a close the channel trading continued with a run up into the ER which broke out to the upside of the channel.
Although the upside breakout was short lived on a weaker than expected ER, it created and held withing a new bullish uptrend, bottoming out around the low 14$'s.
Then came the initial round of tariffs imposed on China. Clear correlation in the chart, pushing the price below the newly formed uptrend and down to the bottom of the formerly established channel.
The additional tariffs pushed the price well below the channel establishing a new all time low of $10.00 during trading.
Additional downside pressure is being added by the threat of the IPO lockup expiration on 4/16. This lockup expiry is a wild card however as the stock is already trading with a very low PE, has already established a recent new all time low. Short interest is up, based on these factors. However there is also the looming $300M (US) stock repurchase program that the annual report showed only a small amount had been used so far. Near $10 PPS, around 24M shares of stock could be repurchased at any time based on the price, so if there is a selloff around or after the lockup expiration date, the repurchase could easily soak up much downside pressure.
If the stock can put a floor in the $10 range, the lockup will be a non-event with the repurchase mitigating it entirely. The stock is beaten down pretty far. More weakness near $10 and shorts will undoubtedly push this lower, however flip side is that if the stock can retest $11 those same shorts will cover...quickly.
The amount of institutional ownership indicates longer term strength at the moment. However if any indicators pop pup showing tariffs having an adverse affect here, big money may start dialing back these positions, if this is seen via new institutional sales, the stock will likely face new all time lows.
However if the stock rebounds in the near term and can get back into the strong trading channel then I think the future gets much brighter here, and quickly as a short squeeze could be triggered.
Good luck!
ALIBABA potential trend reversalBased on a down trend; Volume is decreasing, a clear long legged doji has formed very close to the support level and From my analysis I can see a potential reversal for this market.
Please note: I am a beginner in the what is called a swing trader. Do not consider any investment advise from this. Happy to meet new beginners to understand & share our ideas to improve and develop our trading activity.
Alibaba Breaking OutAlibaba is a leader in eCommerce in the People's Republic of China (China's Amazon). The growth there is two fold, eCommerce much as it is in the United States is a bullish and growing trend, but China also has a growing middle class with rising discretionary income. As a result, Alibaba is experiencing growth not many companies ever see and they are sustaining it. They are becoming players in many different industries as well, including mobile electronic payments and cloud computing. The stock recently broke out from a period of consolidation on above average volume. Watch for the trend to continue higher, but exit the position if the stock closes below its breakout line. Updates to come...
ALIBABA Daily Update (16/1/17)190 resistance.
good low risk short trade to do.
So long as 190 holds, we could see 175
Disclaimer:
The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice.
The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable for your own financial situation.
SonicR Mastery team is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities
BABA short due for 9% retracement I think BABA is going to have a pullback similar to the past patterns it has shown, by combining the averages and trend crossovers i have decided i will be short on BABA until the stock shows signs of reversal backed by technical ana. The chart is a little crowded but again was based on crossovers and averages.
Alibaba: $200 TargetI believe a $200 price point for Alibaba's stock is going to happen within 30 days. Likely 45 days at the latest. Alibaba has still room to grow as a strong stock position. Jack Ma's plan for expansions in both the technological infrastructure as well as wholesale isn't expected to slow down growth at any time soon. Alibaba overall shows positive health as a company and a conservative holding position as a stock pick. Overall, I expect continued positive correlations even for a long HODL.
Alibaba: $180 Price TargetI was interested in Alibaba when it was $95 a share. Though I never invested yet, I think now is the time to say that Alibaba is investible. Whether buying it on Ameritrade, or bidding using 1Broker, I see no reason as to why Alibaba wouldn't hit a $180 price point within the next couple of weeks. This is to shed light on their very recent expansion to the technological world, Jack Ma's traditional business expertise, and the recent positive correlations involved. While all investments have risk involved, I would personally (for conversation purposes), classify this as a conservative investment.
Possible Short Trade on BABAWith the fact that BABA has ran up so much this year and the political uncertainty surrounding the potential breakout of major war could bring this down quite a bit. The short trade is something I am considering and will update if I enter a position.
Feel free to comment on this analysis if you have any ideas.
Follow for more trade ideas including stocks, options, and cryptos!
Thanks!