BABA: Good short setupBABA is currently in a downtrend, and it has a good while before price to sales reaches a more sane level, at least until it hits 77.65 or so. There's a 'Time at mode' downtrend signal that got triggered last Thursday, and we shorted on the pullback on Friday. I bought out of the money puts and bought a put spread to reduce costs on my bearish stance. Risk is 1% overall, and aiming for a nice return here.
If you wish to join, you can either trade it with options, in a variety of ways, or simply short the shares using the reccomended stop loss for position size (you don't need to actually place the order).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Alibaba
ALIBABA @ 1D Chart @ Basic Scenario technically beatenTrading Capabilities
98.03 < 99.61 : long entry option
92.78 > 90.09 : short entry possible
Bulls could go long into 109.66 at least, to beat a wave and create new b high (may be 2017 with new all time highs)
Bears could go short into 87.70 at least, to beat B wave and create new Basic Scenario
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
4XSetUps
ALIBABA @ 1h Chart @ above 1st trading day (after IPO) while thiAlibaba breaked out of trading zone while this september`16
- breakedUP of the 1st trading day (H/L) Session @ after the IPO ...
107.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
99.61 (2015-09-19): high of 1st trading day @ after IPO
90.09 (2015-09-19): low of 1st trading day @ after IPO
After the first hype @ after the IPO @ the traders created a gap
in the trading zone (even the 1st trading day @ after the IPO)
107.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
97.68 (2015-01-27): high of trading range in the trading zone
91.97 (2015-01-30): low of trading range in the trading zone
While August`16 the market traded the share
again between 90.09 and even 99.61 once again
- even since 2016-06-08 (since around 14 months)
107.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
97.18 (2016-08-25): 3rd temporarly daily low after gap into the trading zone back again
93.15 (2016-08-25): 2nd temporarly daily low after gap into the trading zone back again
93.15 (2016-08-15): 2nd temporarly daily low after gap into the trading zone back again
91.31 (2016-08-11): 1st daily low after gap into the trading zone back again
Don`t run after the share - like a missed bus ...
109.75 (2016-09-22): temporarly high - meanwhile yearly high 2016
107.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
105.45 (2016-09-15): temporarly high - meanwhile something like a support line
104.27 (2016-09-06): temporarly high - meanwhile something like a support line
98.85 (2016-08-15): temporarly high - meanwhile something like a support line
Use lower intraday prices as an entry. The best case scenario should be even the last both supporting lines around 105.45 & 104.27. Prices once again around 105.45 & 104.27 would - on one side closed the gap (between 106.18 & 106.77) and on other side he bulls could take breath again to climb by the next run trough 110 USD without any problemes. Even into new yearly highs 2016 ...
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
4XSetUps
ALIBABA @ Basic Scenario since IPO
The Trading Zone between 99.70 & 89.85 is the mainly indictaor if you want, cause it´s based on the 1st trading day (after the IPO). The relative wide trading range on 1st trading day we can use - even between 99.70 & 89.95 - as a basic long/short setup with a price target for new alltime highs/lows.
And if you want to go deeper, you can use also the trading range in the trading range - between 97.68 & 91.97. You can see that while start of 2015 a gap was created and the share falls into new all time lows until round about 56 in October`15. And after that, the shares turned around even into both trading ranges back - with a gap (under) - and are trading meanwhile above 99.70.
Interesting is, in my opinion the fact while the broad S&P 500 Index was bearsih while the last 10 days, ALIBABA shares even traded above the broad trading box. Which indicates me relative strength. So, from this point of view, new all tume highs into 2017 are only a time of question. Cause the fundamental data, like the P/E Ratio for 2017 is with 30 much cheaper as AMAZON for example (with round about 47), if i am not wrong ...
So all in all lower prices, above the trading range (99.70), in the trading range (97.68), are buying trading capabilities even into new alltime prices into 2017 at least.
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
4XSetUps
BABA: Bearish signals on chart, despite local enthusiasmAlibaba has an interesting chart, where we can observe many bearish signals, that might be a bit hidden to the untrained eye.
To name a few:
Yearly MA is trending down and price is below it
Price is currently under the most frequent price since day 1. This implies the downside is more probable to begin with.
The earnings have increased midly but it's possible that this isn't the result of an increase in profitability, but debt.
We have a couple trendlines suggesting weakness, since the daily uptrend was broken. We might see a lower high or M top form here.
Relative strength readings aren't good for BABA.
So, in conclusion I'd be looking for shorts once we get a clear technical signal on chart.
There's a daily uptrend that has 1 day left and has hit the target, this might be the perfect excuse to short it prematurely before a downtrend clearly forms. I'll update the chart with an entry once ready.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie
BABA Reversal from recent lows, looking for 90.00Inverse head and shoulders pattern on 30 minute chart with high volume. consolidation between 85.00-86.20. A move with consistent volume can take BABA to 90 quickly.
Point of Caution:
1) 8% move happened in one day. Time is needed for consolidation. Profit taking should occur with support from buyers.
2) P/E above 40 on a business that has a market cap of $213B+
3) 2.23B float. Every $1 increase means BABA is worth $2.23B more, i.e., valuation can really get ahead of itself quickly.
4) Investigations in to allegedly erroneous transactions could prove harmful in the short term.
The perfect moment to short BABA- Descending triangle, with back-testing the broken support/resistance
- Clear downtrend in MACD and RSI, the latter cannot rise above 50, the former ready to give another sell signal
- Target defined by the height of the triangle
- Stop defined by trendline and MA around 110
- 100 might stop the downward movement, when BABA reaches 100 stop should be pulled to entry point
- Sentiment supports short idea
Yahoo Inc - Has it got anything to shout about?After successful IPO of Alibaba and resulting proceeds and forecast busting 3rd Qtr Earnings released after the market close today, will Yahoo have anything to shout about. Or will it be the case that Yahoo's wealth and treasures will flee along with Alibaba & his 40 thieves?
Time will tell. However, I think the Chart say it all.
Look forward to catching some of that fleeing wealth.
As all ways do you own analysis. If you like the idea, choose to follow me and the chart for future updates. Have you an alternative scenario? Share with me.
Thanks.
CNET - CHINANET ONLINE HOLDINGS SIGNIFICANT LEVELS ON WChinanet shares reached an incredible evaluation this month, from 1$ up to 4$. There are some positive news that probably had catalized this strong uptrend. First of all the company is in discussions for a partnership with Alibaba's online shopping unit Taobao. On September 22 ChinaNet Online Holdings announced that the company won the Best Company in Chinese Entrepreneurial SME Business Development Marketing at the 2014 Chinese e-Commerce Industry Gateway Conference. At the moment we are at 3$ level, and i think it's still possible one more leg up till 4 - 4,5$ level, that is a strong resistance area from 2010. When such impulsive uptrends occur they are normally followed by a strong retrace. Even if we touch the 3,5-5$ resistance area i think it will follow a strong retrace untill 1,7 - 1,3$ area. Also in the past this stock shows about 78% retrace after an impulsive uptrend. If this security breaks the 5$ resistance it can easily go to previous hight on the 7$ level, that can open the road for the blue sky territory or invert the trend.
Good luck for your trading
FIRST ALIBABA CHARTS, WE WERE THERE THAT DAYAlibaba didn't disappoint the investors and gained about 38% in his first day. It is the greatest ipo in the history and all the news about it seem positive at the moment. Now it's difficult to predict the trend evolution but we can try to imagine a possible price range in which buy to go long for the short term. In my opinion this stock could touch his maximum excursion points, from about 70-75$ to 100$, giving an opportunity to gain about 30%.
Good luck for your trading
Is Alibaba Going To Run Wild On $EBAY & $AMZN?Last week, Chinese internet giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd filed papers to be a public traded company. The IPO is expected to be the largest deal in history. The company is expected to fetch over $20 billion from investors. Alibaba is expected to go public sometime this month.
U.S. consumers are now going to be much more familiar with the Alibaba brand once this IPO is finalized. At this time, the U.S. consumer has been shopping on Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN). Amazon.com stock topped out in January 2014, at $408.06 a share. Since that time, the stock has plunged to a low of $284.38, before rebounding to its current price of $343.94 a share. Either way, the Alibaba IPO is going to be a negative for Amazon.com and other major online retailers. Short term traders should note that the Amazon.com stock will have major chart resistance around the $360.00 level. That resistance level represents an area where the stock is expected to move lower, or encounter an area of resistance from moving higher.
eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) is another major online company that could be adversely affected by the Alibaba IPO. After all, the name Ali Baba comes from the fable Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves. You can be sure, Alibaba will certainly steal some online business after this IPO is released.
Nick Santiago
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
Why Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) Is Killing The Alibaba IPORecently, I have been approached by a number of friends interested in investing. Most of these friends have never paid attention to the markets, or even invested or traded stocks on their own. Yet, most of these people are interested in one stock in particular. You have probably even heard the recent hype yourself... you guessed right, its the Alibaba's IPO.
Many traders and investors are aware that there is one way of participating in the Alibaba IPO, and its through Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO). However, the fact that many people are aware of this makes the trade even scarier. As experienced traders know, whenever the general public is drawn into an IPO of this magnitude, smart money will stay away from it. Instead, smart money will trade the reaction.
Allow me to elaborate on this trade...
Last year Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) put in a low of $18.89, earlier this year it hit a high of $41.72. Looking back further in time to 2011, Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) was trading as low as $11.09. That's when the smart money got in ahead of everyone else, and off course, before our neighbors, friends or even the different media outlets even mentioned Alibaba's IPO.
Let's take a look at Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) performance this year. The chart below shows us that Yahoo had a small rise for the first few days of the trading year. Since then, the stock has done nothing but drift lower. It has now put in place lower highs and lower lows, which is a bearish signal for the equity going forward.
Why do you think this price action has been occurring? Isn't Alibaba's IPO supposed to be one of the greatest, biggest and most promising IPO's to hit the market in a while? Well, while media and Wall Street hype suggest that Yahoo's stock should continue to sky rocket as they will receive billions once Alibaba IPO finalizes. As technical traders, we know that this will not be the case simply by looking at Yahoo's price action shown on the charts. This IPO is already failing, we do not need to see financial documents from Alibaba nor Yahoo. Remember that the charts always give us a sneak peek into the future, and the future does not look bright for Alibaba, nor Yahoo!
Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) is downtrending as it is now trading below the 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. This tells us that the easy money has already been made. Yahoo's, price action is weak and the stock has a very good chance over the next few months to trade as low as $22.75 per share. This is not a good sign for Alibaba's IPO.
Smart investors must avoid the hype surrounding these two companies. However, this does not mean that there won't be buying opportunities for Yahoo. There will be many bounces along the way and as savvy and well informed technical traders, we will trade this or any other equity both on the long and short side. But the longer term outlook for Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) as well as Alibaba is negative, and again, you must not get drawn into the hype surrounding this and other IPO's.
Learn how to profit from the Yahoo trade, or any other equity by utilizing a methodology proven to be effective over the past decade. Join the pro traders of The Elite Round Table and we will give you precise entry and exit points to profit in any kind of market. Don't follow the herd, trade with the pros and profit for life.
Kiliam Lopez
Elite Round Table, Pro Trader
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@ProTraderKiliam