a daily price action after hour update - alibabaGood evening and i hope you are well.
I do the occasional price action analysis of individual stocks and today i try to get my opinion across for alibaba or the death of capital as i see it. I think mostly trapped bulls will click on this, having hopes that someone besides them think "IT JUST CAN'T GO LOWER AND IT HAS TO RALLY".
The only question right now for this stock is, what comes first: Touch of monthly 20ema or 60 ? Who knows. I surely don't and neither do you. Right now bulls are making some tails below bars but the last time a month printed above the previous one was 2023-07. I drew 2 bear trend lines which make me think the odds of trading to 60 are higher than going up. I have zero hope for this until 60 or lower is tested multiple times and it then manages to trade above the monthly 20ema again.
Alibaba
Alibaba Cloud's Amplified Support Propels $SUI to an 11% SurgeThe NYSE:SUI token experienced a remarkable 11% surge in its price, driven by Alibaba Cloud's intensified commitment to bolstering the NYSE:SUI network. This surge, witnessed on Wednesday, comes hot on the heels of a strategic partnership expansion between Alibaba Cloud and Mysten Labs, promising a new era of support and growth for the Sui ecosystem.
Price Surge and Growth Trajectory:
NYSE:SUI token's value soared by almost 11% on Wednesday, maintaining a 24-hour trading range between $1.12 and $1.31. This surge adds to an impressive upward trend, with the NYSE:SUI token recording an astounding 60% increase in the last two weeks, according to CoinGecko analysis. The robust performance signals growing investor confidence and heightened interest in the Sui network.
Alibaba Cloud's Expanded Partnership:
Alibaba Cloud's expanded collaboration with Mysten Labs is not merely symbolic; it brings tangible benefits to the Sui network. The partnership introduces a suite of services and tools aimed at fostering the growth of the NYSE:SUI ecosystem. Among these offerings is the integration of Alibaba Cloud's cloud services into Scale3 Labs’ Autopilot platform. This integration streamlines the process for developers, allowing them to deploy NYSE:SUI full nodes with a single click, a significant leap towards simplifying blockchain technology access.
Comprehensive Developer Support:
Alibaba Cloud's support extends beyond basic infrastructure, providing comprehensive observability tools for blockchain nodes and validators. These tools include essential features such as alerting, monitoring, and AI-enabled logging. The strategic collaboration also involves Mysten Labs and ChainIDE working on an AI-assisted tool for ChainIDE, a blockchain-focused development environment. This multifaceted approach underscores Alibaba Cloud's commitment to empowering developers within the Sui network.
Strategic Incubator Initiatives:
The partnership between Mysten Labs and Alibaba Cloud goes beyond technical integration. It includes support for incubator projects and the hosting of hackathons in strategic locations like Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai. These initiatives aim to cultivate a robust NYSE:SUI network ecosystem, facilitating smoother transactions and enhancing user onboarding for developers on Alibaba Cloud.
Closing the Developer Gap:
Recognizing the importance of a diverse and skilled developer community, Alibaba Cloud tailored its services for Sui builders last year, focusing on secure infrastructure and archival node services. The recent addition of AI-enabled development environments and the translation of Move documentation into Asian languages further bridges the gap, ensuring that a broader pool of developers can contribute to and benefit from the Sui network.
Conclusion:
Alibaba Cloud's comprehensive support for the NYSE:SUI network marks a significant milestone in the convergence of blockchain technology and user-friendly online tools. The collaboration with Mysten Labs is poised to elevate the utility and engagement of the Sui network, offering crucial support to developers and positioning the token for sustained growth. As blockchain technology continues to evolve, Alibaba Cloud's strategic initiatives could pave the way for a more accessible and vibrant future for the Sui network.
Alibaba - Buy The DipHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Alibaba.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2016 Alibaba created a pretty obvious higher timeframe bullish reversal which was followed by a crazy bullrun on Alibaba stock. In 2021 Alibaba broke below a major bullish trendline and dropped more than -70%. If we see another bullish reversal at the $65 level and a break above the trendline mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for bullish trading setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai Signal Confidence with $200 Million BuyAlibaba's Rebound:
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has witnessed a significant boost in its stock value following reports that co-founder Jack Ma and Chairman Joe Tsai have collectively invested $200 million in the company's shares. This strategic move by the visionary leaders has caught the attention of investors and analysts alike, signaling renewed confidence in the e-commerce giant.
Background:
Alibaba's US-traded shares experienced an impressive 8.6% surge in New York, marking the most substantial intraday increase since last July. The company had previously faced a challenging period, with its stock declining by 43% over the past 12 months, losing ground to formidable Chinese competitors like Tencent Holdings Ltd. and PDD Holdings Inc.
Insider Buying Signals Optimism:
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai's decision to buy shares during a period of decline reflects their firm belief in Alibaba's intrinsic value. This move is particularly noteworthy given Ma's recent criticism of the company's trajectory, urging internal corrections and acknowledging the success of rivals like PDD.
Tsai's Blue Pool Management family investment vehicle made a bold statement with the purchase of almost 2 million Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) shares, valued at approximately $152 million in the fourth quarter. Notably, this marks the first time Tsai's fund has acquired Alibaba shares since at least the last quarter of 2017, as indicated by regulatory filings.
Jack Ma's Return to Investing:
Jack Ma, who had been gradually selling off his Alibaba shares in recent years, made a notable comeback to the buying table by investing $50 million in the company's stock during the quarter. Ma's stake in Alibaba had previously dipped below 5%, and his decision to reinvest suggests a rekindled belief in the company's potential for resurgence.
Market Reaction and Business Overhaul:
The market's positive response to the insider buying spree reflects investor optimism and confidence in Alibaba's future prospects. Despite challenges, Alibaba is currently valued at around $175 billion.
Alibaba is currently undergoing a significant overhaul, abandoning plans to spin off its cloud business due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. export curbs on AI technology. This strategic shift in the company's structure comes as it faces fierce competition from Pinduoduo and contends with a slower-than-expected retail recovery post-pandemic.
Conclusion:
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai's substantial investment in Alibaba speaks volumes about their unwavering belief in the company's potential for recovery and growth. As Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) navigates a transformative period, investors are likely to closely watch the implementation of its new business strategies and the impact of these insider purchases on the company's future trajectory. The duo's confidence may serve as a beacon of hope for Alibaba, inspiring a renewed sense of trust among stakeholders and potentially signaling brighter days ahead for the e-commerce giant.
Navigating Alibaba's TurbulenceAlibaba Group Holding Limited ( NYSE:BABA ), a behemoth in the Chinese e-commerce and technology landscape, has recently faced tumultuous times, and investors find themselves at a crossroads.
The Current Landscape:
Alibaba, often referred to as "China's Amazon," has witnessed a significant downturn, with its stock plunging 39% over the past year. The broader concerns surrounding U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and regulatory challenges, have cast a shadow over Alibaba and its peers. The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF, reflecting the performance of Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., has seen a notable decline of 23% in the last year.
Amidst the storm, the intriguing question arises: Does Alibaba's current valuation, trading at a Price/Earnings ratio of 10, present an irresistible opportunity or a potential pitfall?
The Bull Case and its Obstacles:
Previously, Alibaba's ambitious plan to spin off six of its business units held promise for unlocking shareholder value. However, the cancellation of the spinoff of its cloud business, coupled with the halt of plans for its Freshippo grocery retail chain, has injected a dose of uncertainty. The announcement led to a sharp decline in Alibaba's stock in November, emphasizing the significant hurdles posed by expanded U.S. restrictions on exports of computer chips.
The Journey Ahead:
As investors weigh the potential rewards against the risks, a careful examination of Alibaba's long-term performance offers valuable insights. The stock has experienced a staggering 71% decline over the past three years, remaining down 53% over the last five years and off 19% since September 2014.
Strategic Decisions and the Road to Recovery:
Alibaba's strategic decisions, particularly the cancellation of key spinoffs, warrant cautious consideration. The wait-and-see approach suggested by analysts underscores the importance of clarity around China's economic recovery and resolution of other China-related issues.
Conclusion:
Alibaba's journey through the volatile landscape of U.S.-China relations and regulatory challenges presents both risks and opportunities. As investors grapple with the decision of whether to buy, sell, or hold Alibaba stock, a nuanced understanding of the company's strategic moves, the broader economic context, and the wisdom encapsulated in analyst recommendations is essential. The path ahead for Alibaba is uncertain, but for investors willing to weather the storm, the potential rewards may be substantial.
ALIBABA The fall of a former giant continues.Alibaba (BABA) has been trading within a Channel Down since the July 31 2023 High. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been acting as the basic Resistance while a truly sustainable bullish trend can technically exist only above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Until then every 1D MA50 rejection such as December 28, is a Lower High on the Channel Down and a sell opportunity. Every Lower Low has been greater in decline % terms, the latest was 20.30% so we can see a Lower Low around 62.00 before a rebound, buy we will buy if contact with the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down is made earlier. The Target will be +11.00% from that point.
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Alibaba - BABA long with $120 targetYesterday the community entered a long on BABA after we backtested a key level of significance and the falling wedge as support.
The chart is prettty good, a completed harmonic below support, spring and break of the falling wedge to get above support before backtesting that level as support once again, whilst at the same time showing bullish divergence... No need for anything else.
We entered with 5x leverage at 83.43 and the profit taking levels are defined. Tomorrow is earnings and so this is a risky trade, earnings is like the lottery and does take your edge away as we witnessed with Spotify. However, we follow the charts, and they suggest upside.
120$ THIRD TARGET -- LETS GO
Navigating Alibaba's Challenges: Is Now the Time to Buy?
The recent performance of Alibaba Group ADR (BABA.N) has raised eyebrows among investors, as the stock is currently in a falling trend channel in the medium to long term. Despite the negative sentiments and challenges faced by the Chinese e-commerce giant, there are compelling reasons for buyers to consider the stock. We will delve into the key factors that may make Alibaba an attractive investment opportunity.
1. Technical Analysis and Potential Reversal:
The stock is currently moving within a rectangle formation, with support at $70.69 and resistance at $101. A decisive break through either of these levels could indicate a new direction for the stock. The recent 3.2% gain in December is a positive sign, and a break upwards through $80.00 could serve as a bullish signal, potentially reversing the falling trend.
2. December Gains Amidst Longest Streak of Monthly Losses:
Despite enduring its longest streak of monthly losses since 2015, Alibaba's NYSE-listed shares have managed to gain 3.2% this month. This resilience in the face of previous setbacks suggests that the stock may be finding support and could be poised for a rebound.
3. Strategic Leadership Changes:
Alibaba recently announced that its chief executive would directly oversee its domestic e-commerce arm, indicating a strategic shift in leadership. With a renewed focus on managing non-core assets, this move could pave the way for a more streamlined and efficient operation, potentially boosting investor confidence.
4. Legal Developments and Market Dynamics:
It's worth noting that Alibaba recently faced a legal setback, with rival JD.com winning a lawsuit against the company for monopolistic practices. While this may have contributed to short-term market uncertainties, it's essential to consider the broader market dynamics and the potential for Alibaba to adapt and thrive in a changing regulatory environment.
In conclusion, Alibaba's current challenges present a unique buying opportunity for investors who can see beyond short-term fluctuations. The technical indicators, December gains, strategic leadership changes, and the contrarian perspective make a compelling case for considering Alibaba as a potential addition to a diversified portfolio. As with any investment, thorough research and a long-term perspective are crucial for making informed decisions in the dynamic landscape of the stock market.
Tech Giant Alibaba Unveils New AI Video ToolAlibaba says its I2VGen-XL model can handle “visualization, sampling, training, inference, join training using images and videos, acceleration, and more.
Alibaba Cloud—subsidiary of Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group and one of the world's largest cloud computing companies—has unveiled its I2VGen-XL AI tool. It’s an advanced text-to-video system that's intended to compete against top-of-the-line models like the ones released by Pika Labs or Stability AI.
The company announced the release of the model’s weights today after publishing the model’s research paper last month.
I2VGen-XL is engineered using cascaded diffusion models, the paper explains, a sophisticated AI technique that ensures the generated videos are not only visually impressive but also contextually coherent and semantically accurate. It operates on a two-stage process: the base stage focuses on maintaining coherence with the input text and images, and the refinement stage enhances the details and resolution of the video, achieving up to 1280x720 pixels.
This technique may sound similar to those used to generate images with SDXL. Unlike SD 1.5 and SD 2.1 which relied on a single model, Stability AI developed two different models, a base and a refiner, which should be combined to generate the best quality images possible.
Alibaba Cloud says the model's training utilized an extensive dataset of around 35 million text-to-video pairs and a staggering 6 billion text-to-image pairs. Such a vast dataset ensures the model's versatility and accuracy across various scenarios and subjects.
A new model amidst an AI arms race
This release comes as the global tech landscape is witnessing heightened tensions and competition, particularly between the US and China. Amidst a backdrop of trade restrictions and a push for technological self-reliance, Alibaba's move is both timely and strategically significant for the country.
Alibaba's latest innovation is not an isolated development but part of a longer narrative of technological rivalry. With the US imposing restrictions on chip exports and China responding with its countermeasures, the race for AI supremacy has accelerated. This environment has spurred advancements in indigenous technologies, with both nations vying for a leading position in AI, semiconductor technology, and 5G innovation.
When contrasted with other notable advancements in the field, such as Pika Labs' model and Stable Video Diffusion, I2VGen-XL distinguishes itself through its unique approach and high semantic accuracy. A demo with several examples of using HiGen (a diffusion model) with I2VGen-XL shows a major improvement in temporal and frame consistency when compared to the use of HiGen alone.
Alibaba's I2VGen-XL model represents a significant milestone in the AI landscape because it provides an alternative to models that are either banned for Chinese users or could be restricted in the future by the US or the Chinese government.
Alibaba’s emerging tech plays
Alibaba goes beyond just e-commerce. It has been a significant player in emerging technologies for a while, consistently pushing new developments in the realms of AI, the metaverse, software, and even digital currencies.
In AI-driven animation, besides sI2VGen-XL, Alibaba's "Animate Anyone" model stands out. This tool transforms static images into dynamic animations, employing a novel framework called ReferenceNet. Integrating sophisticated diffusion models achieves temporally stable and visually consistent videos.
Alibaba Cloud also partnered with Avalanche to launch its Cloudverse platform. This technology offers businesses a seamless pathway to create and maintain their digital universes. The strategic alliance with Avalanche and Metaverse Universal Assets DAO's involvement in middleware solutions highlights Alibaba's collaborative approach and its dedication to harnessing Web3 technologies.
HSI Short: Target 15000 till EOY 2023My previous analysis of the Hang Seng Index was invalidated. And now I've done a revamp of the wave counts for 2023.
This is the summary:
1. Hang Seng will continue to fall either till Christmas or EOY.
2. Target support, or end of correction, will be 14980-15100. Look out for this support zone.
$BABA Double Bottom Weekly Chart in Sight---
### Stock Analysis Update: Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) Approaching Double Bottom on Weekly Chart
#### Potential Double Bottom Formation for Alibaba
Investors tracking Alibaba Group Holding Limited ( NYSE:BABA ) should take note of a significant pattern forming on its weekly chart. The stock is approaching what appears to be a double bottom, a key technical pattern often associated with potential trend reversals. This pattern is identified by two distinct low points at a similar price level, separated by a moderate peak.
#### Key Level to Watch: $77.77
The critical level that defines this potential double bottom for Alibaba's stock is $77.77. This price point is where the two lows of the pattern are formed, serving as a pivotal level for future price action. I have set an alert for this price, closely monitoring the stock's movement as it approaches this key level.
#### Strategy Going Forward: Starter Position
Upon reaching or nearing the $77.77 level, the plan is to initiate a starter position in $BABA. This approach involves entering a smaller, initial investment, which allows for capitalizing on the potential upward reversal indicated by the double bottom pattern, while also managing risk.
#### What a Double Bottom Could Mean for NYSE:BABA
If Alibaba's stock indeed forms a double bottom at $77.77, it could indicate a bullish shift in investor sentiment. This pattern is often seen as a signal that the stock has found a strong support level and may be poised for a rebound. However, it’s crucial to await confirmation, typically seen as a significant move upwards from the $77.77 level, before considering it a firm bullish signal.
#### Investor Caution and Monitoring
As with all technical patterns, it’s important for investors to combine this observation with other market analyses and indicators. Setting a starter position allows for participation in potential upside while maintaining a cautious approach, ready to adjust based on further market data and the stock’s performance.
aaai #BABA needs to hold here - results 16thAlibaba still making higher swing lows on the daily. We recently broke out this falling wedge but have come back to retest the breakout. Important level to hold if the bulls want further upside. Results on 16th November could be a catalyst for a larger move
Can Alibaba double from here?The Chinese MNC had displayed its last big impulse move in Oct.2022.In this move(labeled wave 1) the Chinese giant gained 106% between Oct.2022 till Jan.2023.
Between Jan.2023 to May 2023 the stock got into wave 2 correction and corrected 61.8% of the wave 1 rally(the correction was an Elliot wave zigzag).
The stock displayed a bit of strength again on the completion of the Zigzag and managed to get a leading diagonal as the first leg of the bigger Third wave that is now anticipated of the stock.
The stock currently is at 80%retracement of the leading diagonal and 77.77$ level is a crucial support for the stock. The current corrective phase seems to lack one tiny leg to the downside(wave c of Z) and as soon as that is achieved the stock should only look North then from here all the way till 160$ mark.
Note*- The chart is based on personal observations/opinions. Kindly do your own research before taking up any trade.
Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) Has More To Do To GrowIn a perfect world, we'd like to see a company investing more capital into its business and ideally the returns earned from that capital are also increasing. If you see this, it typically means it's a company with a great business model and plenty of profitable reinvestment opportunities. Having said that, from a first glance at Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) we aren't jumping out of our chairs at how returns are trending, but let's have a deeper look.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets -
Current Liabilities) 0.09 = CN¥126b ÷ (CN¥1.8t - CN¥380b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).
Thus, Alibaba Group Holding has an ROCE of 9.0%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's
around the 10% average generated by the Multiline Retail industry.
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
There are better returns on capital out there than what we're seeing at Alibaba Group
Holding. Over the past five years, ROCE has remained relatively flat at around 9.0% and the
business has deployed 121% more capital into its operations. This poor ROCE doesn't inspire
confidence right now, and with the increase in capital employed, it's evident that the
business isn't deploying the funds into high return investments.
Long story short, while Alibaba Group Holding has been reinvesting its capital, the returns
that it's generating haven't increased. Since the stock has declined 44% over the last five
years, investors may not be too optimistic on this trend improving either. In any case, the
stock doesn't have these traits of a multi-bagger discussed above, so if that's what you're
looking for, we think you'd have more luck elsewhere.
ALIBABA: 1W Bullish Cross leading it to 220. Cycle repeating.Alibaba is neutral on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 46.095, MACD = -1.100, ADX = 22.119) but with the RSI on HL since March 2022. Having crossed already over the 1W MA50 and being on the verge of the first 1W MA50-100 Bullish Cross since April 2019 (and the third ever), this bullish divergence is exactly what has historically formed before BABA's two prior bottoms. The 1W MA50-100 Bullish Cross has been the buy entry signal.
It is evident that all bottom patterns are identical in the form of a Triangle. The target from top-to-bottom has been the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our long term target (TP = 220.00).
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Alibaba Express E-Commerce Resurgence Sparks Bullish EnthusiasmAlibaba Express Surging in Bullish Glory
Alibaba Express (BABA) is on a remarkable bullish run as e-commerce roars back to life. The stock's resurgence can be attributed to robust earnings, strong sales growth, and expanded international reach. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Averages are firmly in the bullish zone, affirming investor optimism. With the global shift toward online shopping and Alibaba's strategic positioning, BABA is well-poised for further gains, igniting enthusiasm among investors tracking this bullish trend.