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Alibaba

Alibaba's Earnings Report and Future Prospects:Detailed AnalysisFollowing the release of Alibaba's latest earnings report on May 18th, the company's stock encountered a 5% decline. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, which concluded on March 31st, the Chinese e-commerce and cloud leader achieved a 2% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching 208.2 billion yuan ($30.3 billion). This figure surpassed analysts' expectations by $410 million. Furthermore, Alibaba's adjusted net income experienced a significant rise of 38%, amounting to 27.4 billion yuan ($4.0 billion), or $1.56 per American depositary share (ADS). Additionally, the company surpassed the consensus forecast by $0.21 in terms of adjusted earnings. For the full fiscal year, Alibaba achieved a 2% growth in revenue and a 4% increase in adjusted earnings per ADS. Despite these positive results, Alibaba's stock price has plummeted more than 70% from its all-time high in October 2020. This situation prompts investors to consider whether Alibaba's stock presents a value play opportunity in the context of China's COVID-19 recovery or if it will remain out of favor in the Chinese tech sector for the foreseeable future. Alibaba's decline can be attributed to a combination of regulatory, competitive, and macroeconomic factors. In September 2021, the company faced significant regulatory actions when China's antitrust regulators imposed a record-breaking $2.8 billion fine on Alibaba. This penalty required the company to terminate exclusive agreements with merchants and aggressive promotional practices while undergoing scrutiny of past and future investments. These regulatory measures weakened Alibaba's competitive position against rivals such as JD.com and Pinduoduo in the Chinese e-commerce market. Furthermore, macroeconomic challenges impacted Alibaba's performance. China's economic slowdown and intermittent COVID-related lockdowns had a broad impact on consumer spending, consequently affecting Alibaba's performance. Companies also reduced their spending on Alibaba's cloud services due to the challenging economic conditions. Additionally, Alibaba's cloud business suffered a setback when ByteDance, under international pressure, transitioned the data of TikTok's overseas users from Alibaba Cloud to Oracle's cloud servers in 2021. In terms of revenue distribution, Alibaba generated 67% of its revenue from its China Commerce segment, which encompasses platforms like Tmall, Taobao, and brick-and-mortar stores. Another 9% of revenue came from Alibaba Cloud, which remains the leading cloud platform in China. It is worth examining the performance of these two core businesses over the past two years. Although the economic slowdown significantly impacted investor sentiment towards Alibaba, there are positive developments worth noting. Alibaba's operating margin expanded from 8% in fiscal 2022 to 12% in fiscal 2023, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin increased from 19% to 20%. These improvements can be attributed to aggressive cost-cutting measures, including a significant reduction in the workforce with approximately 19,000 layoffs throughout 2022. In March, Alibaba unveiled its future plans, which involve dividing its business into six new groups: Cloud Intelligence, Taobao Tmall Commerce, Local Services, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Global Digital Commerce, and the Digital Media and Entertainment Group. Each group will be led by separate CEOs, and many of them will pursue additional funding or initial public offerings (IPOs). As an update to these plans, Alibaba announced in its fourth-quarter report that it intends to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) for its entire cloud division. The company plans to distribute the shares from this IPO as a special dividend to its current shareholders. Additionally, Alibaba aims to seek external financing for its global e-commerce division, which includes its overseas and cross-border marketplaces. Furthermore, the company is exploring potential IPOs for Cainiao Smart Logistics and the grocery division of its Taobao Tmall Commerce Group. It's important to note that Alibaba's restructuring plan does not involve a complete split of the company. Even if the various business groups are spun off into publicly traded companies, Alibaba will retain majority stakes in all of them. The purpose of the restructuring is to enable these groups to pursue external financing independently, thereby reducing the burden on Alibaba's balance sheet. Additionally, it allows each group to make autonomous decisions without concerns about potential impacts on Alibaba's other divisions. While Alibaba did not provide specific guidance for fiscal 2024, there is potential for its growth to accelerate as China's economy undergoes a post-COVID recovery. The spinoff of Alibaba Cloud has the potential to generate fresh capital and enhance the company's profitability. Analysts anticipate that Alibaba's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will grow by approximately 10% and 9% respectively in fiscal 2024. However, these estimates should be approached with caution due to existing uncertainties. From a valuation standpoint, Alibaba's stock appears inexpensive, trading at around two times this year's sales and 10 times its adjusted EBITDA. Nevertheless, the stock may continue to face challenges until its revenue growth gains momentum and concerns regarding delisting threats for U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are addressed. While Alibaba is certainly worth monitoring, it may not be considered an outright bargain at the current moment. Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor the company's growth trajectory and the regulatory environment before making investment decisions.
NYSE:BABA
by FOREXN1
19
BABA Chinese government reshuffle spooks investorsSHORT The Alibaba (BABA) share price has struggled so far in 2022, falling by 44.7% year-to-date (YTD). Chinese e-commerce and technology sectors are facing fresh challenges: The Nasdaq Golden Dragon index, which tracks US-listed shares in Chinese companies, shed a record 14% following announcements that Xi Jinping has extended his rule to a third term as president – and filled senior government roles with party loyalists. In the 24 hours following the announcement, Alibaba fell 18%. The Hang Seng Index also fared dismally, dropping 1,030 points to a 13-year low, following investor concern that the new government would stifle the economy and private enterprise. With China’s zero-Covid policy now cemented in the near term, along with government support for Vladimir Putin, a bearish sentiment might continue for tech stocks as investors stick to a risk-off mode. The strict zero-Covid controls implemented by the Chinese government have resulted in lockdowns which have disturbed supply chains and the manufacturing industry. In an article for CNBC, Antonella Teodoro, senior consultant at MDS Transmodal, said: “China’s zero-Covid approach is impacting production and manufacturers are seeking alternatives to the current ‘factory of the world’. “Drilling down to the individual commodity groups exported from China, we observe that China has been continuing to lose market share, with Vietnam amongst the countries gaining importance on the international landscape.” In March, the BABA share price fell below $100 for the first time since 2017. It has since been unable to hold above that level. But the stock had gained value since late May after the company announced its first-quarter earnings report. The June-quarter earnings report was more positive: Daniel Zhang, chairman and CEO of Alibaba Group, said: “Following a relatively slow April and May, we saw signs of recovery across our businesses in June. We are confident in our growth opportunities in the long term given our high-quality consumer base and the resilience of our diversified business model catering to different demands of our customers.” Toby Xu, chief financial officer of Alibaba Group, also commented: “Despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 resurgence, we delivered stable revenue performance year-over-year. We have narrowed losses in key strategic businesses given ongoing improvements in operating efficiency and increasing focus on cost optimisation . “We recently shared our plan to add Hong Kong as another primary listing venue. By becoming primary listed on both Hong Kong and New York stock exchanges, we aim to further expand and diversify our investor base.” Is the current share price at a good entry point for investors looking to make an Alibaba stock investment? Has the share price bottomed out or is there potential for it to retreat again? Historical stock price data shows that BABA dropped by 49% in 2021, ending the year at $118.79 a share, as worries about the Chinese market and a sell-off in technology stocks in the US exerted further downward pressure. In April last year, the Chinese government fined the company $2.8bn for what the State Administration for Market Regulation said was monopolistic behaviour The record fine was lower than the market had anticipated and removed some of the uncertainty surrounding the potential penalty that would be imposed. However, a gain in the share price was short-lived and it continued the downward trend that started in October 2020, after hitting its all-time highest stock price of $309.92. Alibaba announced its December quarter 2021 results on the same day that Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine (24 February 2022), leading to much market upheaval, particularly in the technology sector. What may also have concerned investors was that its revenue figures represented its slowest quarterly growth rate since going public in 2014. Revenues totalled RMB242.58bn ($38.07bn) in the October-December period, an increase of 10% year-over-year (YoY).
CAPITALCOM:BABAShort
by DaveBrascoFX
ALIBABA undergoes organizational revamp: A fundamental analysis.Alibaba, one of the world's leading e-commerce and cloud computing companies, has a rich corporate history that is sure to capture the attention of many. Founded by the charismatic and unconventional Chinese entrepreneur Jack Ma, the company was able to attract investments from the likes of Yahoo and SoftBank during its early days. However, it wasn't until its initial public offering (IPO) in 2014 - which raised a staggering HKEX:22 billion - that Alibaba truly entered the public consciousness in a significant way. Recently, Alibaba surprised investors by announcing that it is undergoing an organizational revamp. In this article, we will delve into the implications of this development and assess whether investing in the company's stock is a wise decision. Over the past decade, Alibaba has diversified its offerings beyond e-commerce. However, the company has been struggling to generate substantial growth for the past few years, a trend that is reflected in its stock price. In fact, since its IPO, the stock has decreased by 5%. The current situation with Alibaba indicates that all the shareholder value the company once created has been erased, even if the degree of the sell-off may be exaggerated. While it's important to acknowledge that Alibaba is a Chinese company and likely experienced the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns, the fact remains that it has been struggling even as pandemic fears diminish. Consequently, the company's management is at a critical turning point. In response to this situation, Alibaba has recently announced a significant restructuring plan that involves dividing the company into six distinct entities, each focused on one of its core divisions. According to CNBC's coverage of the story, these divisions will include cloud computing, e-commerce (Taobao Tmall), digital media, digital commerce, Cainiao logistics, and local services. Each entity will have its own Board of Directors and CEO. The reasons behind Alibaba's decision to pursue this course of action are still subject to speculation. While some suggest that the restructuring is a response to the company's declining growth, others posit that it could be an attempt to address Alibaba's perceived monopoly status, given its size and the scrutiny it receives from the Chinese government. After the announcement of the restructuring plan, research analyst Scott Kessler suggested that the Chinese government may have played a role in endorsing the move. The underlying rationale for this organizational overhaul is to allow each division to operate independently, almost like its own company. This implies that the six new CEOs will have unique perspectives, enabling their respective entities to make swift decisions and compete more effectively with other cloud and internet companies. Essentially, the different segments will have the autonomy to create dedicated budgets, identify crucial initiatives, and raise funds from their own investor groups. The ultimate aim may be to spin off Alibaba and list each entity on a public exchange separately. Investors will need to exercise patience to determine if Alibaba's restructuring plan is successful. Existing shareholders should hold on to their shares and evaluate future earnings reports, enabling them to determine if exchanging their shares in the different entities is a viable option when the time comes. On the other hand, prospective investors may want to wait and observe future earnings reports to evaluate each division's potential. This will help investors to identify which entities are of interest to them. It may be prudent to invest in Alibaba before any potential spinoffs and separate listings, but only after careful consideration of the spinoff entities that make it onto their investment radar. In conclusion, Alibaba's recent restructuring plan is a significant development that highlights the company's efforts to address its challenges and reposition itself for growth. While the possibility of a spinoff and separate listings of each entity is exciting, investors must exercise caution and carefully evaluate each division's potential before making any investment decisions.
NYSE:BABA
by FOREXN1
18
Alibaba is in a decision zoneI believe BABA is in a gray zone where the market decides if it’s time to push it higher or if it will slide to the level of the end of 2022. Below are the things I will consider. 1. Short conformations: - Symmetrical triangle pattern (green lines) - Declining RSI - The money flow index keeps declining - Possible H&S neck breakdown (blue lines) Target - 60 2. Long confirmations: - Price chart breaks upper trend line (and closing the end of march gap) - SMI is going up, and MACD turns positive - Quarterly revenue way over expectation (May 18th) Target 1 – 100-105, Target 2 - 125 What are your thoughts? NOTE: This is not financial advice. Every trader/investor should do their research and follow a personal plan.
NYSE:BABA
by NASTICHUS
1
Alibaba Baba ADR Group LTDAlibaba Crashed 79,5 Percent you can call this a crash. Now Alibaba is retracing to higher levels. Usually a retrace to the 0.38 and 0.5 Fibonacci is a healthy recovery,that Alibaba should stay infront of. So from actual price levels of 93.5 USD there is still a 90 Percent upside possibility. This could be Quick Money. On the other side the fundamentals of BABA are strong. We have a higher cash quote that we can now invest in things. Cash is king in times of high interest charges. The KGV (Price earnings ratio)should decrease from 26,5 to 15,2 by 2024. this is very significant. The net result is also drastically rising from 69.590Mill to 112 german Mrd.so it will nearly double to 2024. This should be technically and fundamentally a good investment for the short and long run. This is just my opinion and no buy or sell advice. Im self invested.
XETR:AHLALong
by Migel1988
ALIBABA uptrend confirmed. Made this chart simples as I could, so everyone could understand. Few thing happened that are extremely bullish. First, price is above 200 moving average. Second, 20 EMA crossed 40 EMA after 6 months(last time this happened Alibaba went from $66 to $120 in weeks) 3. It formed bullish divergence on RSI. I marked all the details. Pls this is not any financial advice or anything, I am just trying to make this chart as simple as I can. You are welcome to make any comments, positive and negative. Thank you
NYSE:BABALong
by ninonp14
Don't Buy BABA in the short TermTechnical Analysis: - As you can can see in the chart, Alibaba(BABA) is still correcting in short term wave V in red and it must be completed around $43 when we think smart buyers will appear - If the price crosses the invalidation level around $121.30 it means that the correction is over or we can have a bounce in WXY Structure in wave IV which will extend more higher before goes lower - H1 Right Side is Turning Up - H4 Right Side is Turning Down Technical Information: - Wait for the correction in wave ((II)) in black to be completed in order to buy
NYSE:BABAShort
by Market-Right-Side
3
$BABA Inverse Head & Shoulders$BABA IH&S, neckline at $120, possible initial rejection (sell in may & go away) then hit $180 breakout target by fall. I took the fractal from the left shoulder and flipped it. I've been doing tons of IH&S patterns, but missed this one, shoutout @JaviCharts on Twitter for pointing this out! We both posted this at the low of the right shoulder at $80 about a week ago.. Follow me on Twitter @ChartingGuy twitter.com to get trades and chart updates sooner.
NYSE:BABALong
by Charting_Guy
Alibaba. capitalize its coming big moves w/o buying its share.Alibaba / Baba price surging up > 10% both in HK & NY markets after news that is going to split its core business to 6 = the beginning of “new era”..How for Malaysian if their local broker not allowed to trade HK or NY stocks? Probably structured warrant is a choice ...p/s structured warrants like stock options is a “leveraged + plus time decay/ expiration date” trading instruments/ products.. So Unless you are experienced traders on “when” The underlying / mother stock will be at roughly “what” price the in next e.g 60 days...By trading with e.g elliotwave, Cycle etc...
A
by SteveTan
ALIBABA On the 1D MA50. Closing above = $120.Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA) hit today its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 16. In the past year, every time the price closed a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, it soared to at least 120.00 which is the bottom of the 1 Year Resistance Zone. This time the stock is past a 1D Golden Cross pattern, the first such formation March 18 2019, which is technically bullish. What it needs to avoid is closing below its Higher Lows trend-line, which on September 16 2022 kickstarted a strong sell-off. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:BABALong
by TradingShot
4