Alibaba lift off !! Alibaba
Short Term - We look to Buy at 102.52 (stop at 92.78)
Dip buying offers good risk/reward. Trading volume is increasing. Previous support located at 100.00. Trading close to the psychological 100.00 level.
Our profit targets will be 138.58 and 164.00
Resistance: 120.00 / 138.50 / 180.00
Support: 100.00 / 83.00 / 73.51
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Alibaba
$BABA out with a 35% gain! 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Recap: On 5/19/22 my team purchased shares of Chinese online and mobile commerce company Alibaba $BABA at $88 per share.
Our initial take profit was $118. We sold 1/2 at $117 and the rest several minutes ago at $121 which brings our take profit average to $119 for a 35% gain!
Congrats to those of you who took this trade! We sold out but our overall consensus for $BABA remains bullish! Good luck to longs!
Our Entry: $88
Take Profit Average (HIT): $119
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Alibaba (BABA, BUY) Solid F4Q; Now is the Inflection Point
We are upgrading our rating from HOLD to BUY and maintain our PT of $130 as F4Q results beat estimates and we see F1Q (June quarter) as the long-awaited inflection point for the company. CMR was flat y/y in F4Q (vs. -1% in Dec. quarter), despite a low-single-digit decline in GMV due to disruptions in supply chain and logistics in March. Cloud revenue grew 12% y/y, decelerating 8pts from F3Q due to macro weakness and COVID. Global AACs reached 1.31B, adding 30M sequentially, with 1B from China. Mgmt. indicates that June quarter will be more challenging as a result of COVID resurgence and lockdowns. In April, total revenue declined low-single-digit;China retail marketplace GMV declined low-teens due to supply chain and logistics disruptions, with May improving but still not fully recovered. Given the macro uncertainty, BABA is not providing revenue guidance for FY23. Repurchased 17.8M
ADSs for $2.0B during the quarter.
Despite the more challenging June quarter, we are upgrading BABA to BUY as we believe both revenue and profitability will bottom out and hit a long-awaited inflection point in the quarter. With government's stimulus policies kicking in and an easier comp, BABA's revenue growth and margin should start to improve in the 2H. In addition, BABA is trading at 11x CY23E earnings, significantly lower than the fiveyear-average of 22x. Although the stock's growth thesis has been muted since 2021, we see positive earnings revisions and valuation improvement in the coming quarters. NYSE:BABA
ALIBABA - Locked Down But For how Long?Alibaba Group Holding Limited is expected to report earnings on 05/26/2022 before market open. Analysts are expecting Alibaba to report adjusted income of $1.07 per share, down 33% comparing with the year-ago period $1.6per share, on revenue of $29.7 billion, up 3% for its fiscal fourth quarter.
Alibaba is more than 72% off its record high set in October 2020. Alibaba has been facing corporate governance and regulatory pressure. Other than that economic weakness, Covid shutdowns, supply-chain issues and inflation also put pressures on the share price.
However, there is some optimism that China will normalize the operating environment for Internet companies. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He said that Beijing will roll out more measures to boost the economy as well as favorable policy steps for capital markets.
As a sign of confidence, Alibaba announced in March that it would increase its buyback program to $25 billion from $15 billion, the largest ever repurchase plan by the e-commerce giant.
Overall, despite Alibaba’s issues, the Street keeps a bullish outlook
BABA, Potential for bearish momentum | 23th May 2022With prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low support . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BABA Potential for bearish momentum | 20th May 2022With prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and swing low support . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 100% Fibonacci projection is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BABA, Potential for bearish momentum | 19th May 2022On the H4, with the price reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BABA may not hold 87 pivot; is 73 D. Bottom next or the 50 zone?BABA is in a long downward pitchfork since the 320 ATH. In this weekly chart, BABA has been oscillating between the 2 green PITCHFORK lines (in a closing basis) since it made a diamond continuation pattern last Nov2021.
Last week it bounced from the pitchfork mired dotted median line has turned down again to the 87 pivot zone. If the 87 pivot zone doesn’t hold, we may see a double bottom at 73.
Worst case scenario may be the Max Pain zone at 50 to 45 down back to the green line but the bottom reversal will be very fast this time. That will take us back to 57.20 the 2015 bottom before the 5 Elliott waves even started, erasing all gains.
Not trading advice
BABA, Potential for bullish momentum | 18th May 2022On the H4, with the price reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 102.73 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 80.44 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 108.79 where the horizontal pullback resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BABA, Potential for bullish momentum | 18th May 2022On the H4, with the price reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 102.73 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 80.44 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 108.79 where the horizontal pullback resistance is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
BABA: This Great Bearish Trend will Hit $60 LevelCurrently, Alibaba is moving in an impressive bearish trend. During early March this year, the price has arrived at $80 level. Since then, we can see the price retraced and retested the previous support level and the trend line. In the chart, we can spot a descending triangle pattern, where the price has tested the $80 support level three times, simultaneously with highs getting lower and lower. Therefore, this indicates a strong bearish momentum attempting to push down the price to break the support level.
Currently, we are not preparing any entries because the price is right at the support level. If the price clearly breaks below, then we will resume our plans to continue entering sell positions after a retracement.
Check out our other trend following trading ideas :)
Alibaba - BABAWeekly Chart (right side)
- Nice long-term downtrend since mid-February 2021
Daily Chart (left side)
- Gab mid-March 2022 showed a nice support which were tested end of April 2022
- Another gab in the last days is currently showing some support
- The 50-MA is currently a strong resistance
- The MACD is slightly improving and the RSI just jumped over the important level of 50
The long-term all-time low (not displayed) is at USD 57.20 and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement at USD 119.06 which marks a resistance, too
As the next earning report is expected on May 6 and the long-term trend is still bearish, I’m still not catching the falling knife.