Alibaba Investment Idea Fundamental side of the Idea:
With a five-year annualized earnings growth rate of 29% and a sales growth rate of 47%, it’s hard to find a company with a more impressive track record of growth than Alibaba. It’s been a big winner since its IPO in September 2014.
Expectations were high for Alibaba’s Singles Day annual shopping event in November, and the company didn’t disappoint as sales nearly doubled from the year-ago period to $74 billion.
The company has been able to stay in growth mode despite a slowdown in its core e-commerce business.
Alibaba’s business in China looks a lot like Amazon’s in the U.S. Alibaba’s cloud-computing business is showing solid growth, just like Amazon’s booming web services business.
Annual return on equity of 21% and pretax margin of 31.3% help its top-notch SMR Rating (sales + margins + return on equity) of A from IBD Stock Checkup. With Stock Checkup, you can easily see who the group leaders are based on a combination of fundamental and technical factors.
For its current fiscal year 2021, earnings per share are expected to jump 36%, with 15% growth seen in fiscal 2022.
Technichal side of the Idea:
I am waiting for the price at 0,38 level (202,97USD), if the Price rebounded from this zone I am going to buy. But if the price breaks this zone, the stock Price could decrease more in.
There is a possibility that the price will increase to 247,58 USD, after that we may see a pullback to 225,41 USD before the price starts to increase again .
If you have any questions, Do not hesitate to contact me .
Sara Sadki
Alibababuy
Alibaba -how to play this trade with a sea of bad news ?So Alibaba has seen its share of problems in the last months, from intervention from the Chinese government to fear of being delisted in the US from trumps administration in his battle with Chinese stocks to the missing Jack Ma that we still don’t know where he disappeared to ...? a lot of conspiracy theories in that story..
Well with all this mess I choose to look at the technicals and see what they say.
First, we see stock bottomed down to 211$ on Dec 23rd and gave us a new lower low that we can base on. The rise of Alibaba started yesterday on the news that the US will not delist the stock but let's not forget that is NOT what made the stock tumble down but the cancelation of the Chinese government on the IPO of Ant Group and the intent to nationalize both Ant group and Alibaba and of course the missing former English teacher and China’s poster boy for success -Jack Ma.
A lot of bad news and I am here to bet the opposite in the short term (only short term) , from what the chart tells us along with the current sentiment on the stock is that there is a new rise of optimism in the air and the stock will regain some of its loses in the upcoming days to weeks.
The first target for this prediction to come true is a price target of 251$ which will indicate a correction to the 0.618 line, and the fill on the gap of 9$ (241 to 250). If that target is achieved the stock will get more attention and the volume (buzz sentiment) will go up and take the stock to 269$.
At the 269$ I can see we will have a correction downwards back to the 250-255$ line.
We must remember when trading sentiment and fundamental news it's all about what the volume is displaying us as it is a clear mirror to the investor’s behavior.
If we see Alibaba retreating back down to below the 225$ line, then my analysis is disproven and should be ignored!
By the way, on this chart, I used a public analysis tool called the “Bottom down tool”, a great way of seeing if the asset is bottomed down if crosses the 20 line.
This is a high-risk trade and I argue you to do your own DD and keep an eye on the 225$ line to avoid entering too early
Trade safe and a happy 2021 from FDGT!
Stock to Watch for 2021. AlibabaStock to Watch for 2021. #Alibaba #BABA $BABA
The best time to buy Tesla stocks was when the SEC announced they were suing Tesla CEO Elon Musk on Thursday, Sept. 27, 2018.
Looking at the chart, Tesla was at $52.95... right now $661.77.
Alibaba shares are down 33% since China targets Alibaba with the anti-monopoly investigation.
Could we see a similar stock performance for Alibaba? What's the price of $BABA in 2 years' time?
For me, it is 100% buy for long term investors.
However, if we buy now it would consider catching a falling knife and I do expect more downside to come or at least 1 more big sell-off toward the moving average line.
Also, by looking at previous chart patterns we need to see a W bottom to form in order to confirm momentum reversal and that Alibaba is heading back up.
Therefore, here is what I would like to see from Alibaba at the start of 2021.
What stocks are you watching?
ALIBABA CAN GO UP SHORT TERM We can see on 4h chart that we are close to 200 EMA, and this was solid support last couple of times. Also, RSI is in oversold zone and quiet. It looks like that is time for buying, at least for next 2 weeks for some swing trades. After Christmas I expect for most of the big names to calm down during the holidays.
Re-accumulation phase for Alibaba before markup I believe BABA has shown us the first levels of its trading range at the $315 level and $255 level and I think this is the range we will see the strong hands start accumulation before the Ant IPO for the markup. I will be swinging BABA in this range until it’s time for the final rally up in its final phase of this range.
Alibaba (BABA): Dissecting the FUD, Fundamentals, and TechnicalsAlibaba Group is a Chinese multinational tech company specializing in e-commerce, and IT. This Chinese company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as BABA. In this analysis, I’ll be covering the company’s fundamentals by looking at its business model and financials, as well as technical analysis for the stock. I’ll also be providing my own insight on why this stock has been rather underperforming for the past few weeks, and what we can expect for the future.
Business Model
- Alibaba, while it initially started with a focus on e-commerce, has expanded to other territories as well
- It aims to offer the necessary digital infrastructure as an e-commerce platform, providing small businesses the necessary tools and equipment to operate online.
- Alibaba also takes part in cloud computing, just like AWS and Azure, offering data storage, big data analysis, and machine learning services.
- Alibaba also has a business dedicated to digital media, producing original content
- Alibaba owns 33% of Ant Financial’s shares, which is what affected the price action so heavily recently
Ant Financial IPO FUD
- Ant Financial is a company that was formerly known as Alipay.
- Its expected market valuation after the dual listing was expected to reach over $310 billion, which would have significantly affected BABA’s price as well.
- However, the Chinese Communist Party halted the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of this company, without an official explanation.
- Ant Financial has transformed the way Chinese people interact with money. It challenged China’s banking system by brining easy use of payments, borrowing, and investing through smartphones across the entire country
- Ant Financial’s business model, in essence, puts financial services outside the direct control of the CCP and Chinese banks
Financials
- So at this point, we understand why Alibaba’s stock prices have been negatively affected by news.
- Looking at the company’s financials, we can discover that the firm’s fundamentals remain solid
- The company has shown a parabolic growth in their revenue since 2010, reaching record highs for the 2020 Estimate
- Accordingly, its operating income grows at a steady pace as well.
- Its gross profit margin averages at 55.5%, which is considered as extremely high profit margins
- They did report a decline in yoy EPS for the 12 months ending in September 30, 2020, and a 60% yoy decline in the EPS for the quarter ending at the same time.
- Nevertheless, it has still managed to beat the consensus EPS, and continues to demonstrate yoy growth
Technical Analysis
- This is the weekly chart for Alibaba
- We can see that it was consolidating in a rising wedge pattern, before breaking out in July 2020.
- Due to the Ant Financial IPO cancellation FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), stock prices fell from $320 down to $255.
- Elliott Wave counts suggests a further potential downside to $220-230 levels, where it could complete the corrective wave at the gap support
- We can also see that prices have never broke down the 150 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the weekly.
- This indicates that the converging point of the 150 SMA and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support at $200 could be considered our last line of support
- Thanks to the recent corrective move, however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been flushed out to neutral levels, from overbought territories
- It seems as though the RSI could bounce on the trend line support soon
Conclusion
Alibaba is a solid company with strong fundamentals and financials, as well as a business model that expands throughout a wide range of areas. It has fallen victim to the restrictions imposed by the Chinese Communist Party recently, but it’s important to understand the role this company plays for the Chinese economy and the world economy. Companies like Alibaba are essentially too big to fall. There are attempts made by governments of various countries such as the US with big tech companies, and South Korea with Samsung Group, to regulate dominant firms. Regardless, none of them have actually succeeded besides a small correction in stock prices driven by FUD. As such, while technical analysis suggests further potential downside, I believe that investors should approach this stock from a buy perspective.
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I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
BABA Daily chart with Fib and EwaveLooks like BABA resting on some support today after falling from support yesterday. Currently resting on .786 fib level. BABA is CHEAP right now, but there can be more downside with major support at $230-ish level as the ultimate bottom (unless there's a market-wide sell-off this is not very probable. I am personally adding to my March calls here.
Long on ALibaba..... Possible Swing Trade (might reach 230) Price has been in an uptrend
Price has retraced and respected the 38.2 fib creating a double bottom and possibly completing the right shoudler of a H&S Pattern
price has also found support/respected the lower trend line........
Price also found support at the 20 MA average (NOT SHOWN ON HERE)
This stock is overall bullish, but some negative light has been shed around one of the executives, but I don't think it will have a huge negative affect on the "value" of stock price.
Could be a possible swing trade.... Earnigs are scheduled for MAY 13
Alibaba: Potential Correction before a Breakout 1D (Apr. 27)X FORCE GLOBAL ANALYSIS:
Alibaba has shown a strong recovery after having locally bottomed due to the Corona Virus (Covid-19). Despite being a Chinese company, the e-commerce giant has not been as severely affected by the gravity of the situation. In this analysis, we take a look at Alibaba's (BABA) technicals and fundamentals to determine the most probable scenario.
Technical analysis
- We have been rejected by the descending trend line resistance marked in the dotted blue line
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a downtrend, with the formation of lower highs
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows decreasing bullish histograms, and a potential death cross
- We are seeing a temporary trend reversal to potentially fill the gaps below
Fundamental analysis
- The Corona Virus has impacted the company as fewer people were able to produce and deliver to their customers
- While supply issues have been handled now, there are now questions about how consumer demand for e-commerce products is holding up amid a period of global economic uncertainty and continued unease about germ spread
- Despite the confusion caused by the Corona Virus (COVID-19), Alibaba continues to invest aggressively into Alibaba Cloud
- As governments aggressively digitize services, cloud demand will be stimulated, and it's likely that Alibaba will be one of the beneficiaries
What We Believe
We believe that Alibaba is a strong company to hold for the long term. Alibaba shows strong fundamentals, and aggressive investments for the future that appear prudent. However, technical analysis demonstrates that we could be seeing a small correction for the immediate term.
Trade Safe.
BABA: Buy Signal: Let me know what you all think? Hi All,
It's all in the chart.
I do not forsee BABA retracing back to 183, but who actually knows.
Always keep in mindThey could always be black SwanEvent
BABA looks to be on the uptrend. Buy Signal (5-07): Going Long.
Up Trend: Impulse. Down Trend: Correction.
All wave Patterns are impulse or correction.
Sideway: Except for moving horizontally.
Retracement: Price hit Support, Reversal Period,
Stop Loss: 60/40 Split.
Resistance: Price Falls below Previous Support Level .
Only trade when you see repeated price pattern.
Limit to roughly 15-20 trades per month 2/1.
Impulse & Correction: 50/50 Win or lost: lose $50 - Make $100
Hope this chart was helpful to you all. If you all have questions feel free to ask or comment in the comment section below.
Be sure to Follow me for future charts, like this post if it was helpful, and thank you all.
Happy trading People...