Alibabalong
Alibaba - Buy The DipHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Alibaba.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2016 Alibaba created a pretty obvious higher timeframe bullish reversal which was followed by a crazy bullrun on Alibaba stock. In 2021 Alibaba broke below a major bullish trendline and dropped more than -70%. If we see another bullish reversal at the $65 level and a break above the trendline mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for bullish trading setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Alibaba (BABA) -> This After -80%My name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Alibaba.
For me personally it was quite impressive that Alibaba stock dropped more than 80% after the massive 400% increase from 2015 to 2020.
Recently Alibaba stock retested and already rejected the previous all time low of 2015 and I think that it is just a matter of time until we will see a monthly bullish break of structure.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
ALIBABA uptrend confirmed. Made this chart simples as I could, so everyone could understand. Few thing happened that are extremely bullish. First, price is above 200 moving average. Second, 20 EMA crossed 40 EMA after 6 months(last time this happened Alibaba went from $66 to $120 in weeks) 3. It formed bullish divergence on RSI. I marked all the details. Pls this is not any financial advice or anything, I am just trying to make this chart as simple as I can. You are welcome to make any comments, positive and negative. Thank you
ALIBABA downtrend finally broken It has been a really rough year for Alibaba. It was straggling to get out of that 12 months downtrend. It is finally out of downtrend. There is a small resistance around $90 zone, once we break that, $103 will come so fast. I tried to make the chart so simple so everyone can understand. You are welcome to argue but pls be respectful. Enjoy
Alibaba Play with a Monsterjust made this chart to show you how it's easy to predict normal Strong Stocks in comparison with Cryptos.
Everything is just matter of time and patience, buy at the good time, and not be too greedy on your % returns.
Alibaba is a giant, it's very difficult to lose money for a long term investment..
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Trading Parts :
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Buy Zone : 210$ ish
Tp1 - 260$
Tp2 - 275$
Tp3 - 295$
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Happy Tr4Ding !
Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the BABA Alibaba Group Holding options chain ahead of earnings, i would buy the $85 strike price in the money Calls with
2022-12-16 expiration date for about
$3.79 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Did $BABA stock BOTTOM?My experience
I owned shares of Alibaba for the last 10 months. I started buying when it dropped to $140 in November 2021, and then I started averaging costing during the downtrend, my average price was around $110 and I completely closed my position at the beginning of July 2022 when it traded at $120. In conclusion, made a small 10% during this period, assuming a lot of risks, having money stuck in there creating an opportunity cost for other investments.
My first lesson here was "Never try to catch a falling knife" . I've read this quote many times, but I got pushed by the FOMO back in 2021, when I should have waited for some consolidation or lateral movements of the price, to show me some kind of demand at this level before jumping in.
I'm sharing my experience in this situation with the idea to help someone with making better investment decisions. The truth is, you must always learn from your own mistakes. But learning from others' mistakes will save you time, stress and money. However, this is where experience lays, funny isn't it?
Long-Term Forecast
Alibaba is a very interesting business model, with incredible growth in the past. I think that the chart reflects an evolution from a Growth Company to a Stable Company , that's why the P/E valuation went from 30x in the past to 15x nowadays. The market included the growth slowdown to its market cap.
Of course, there are many other risks related to Alibaba that also impacted its price during the last year. Some of them are:
- Uncertainty Risk is related to the political pressure between the USA and China.
- Delisting Risk from NYSE.
- Monopoly fines from China.
Changes in Chinese state policy regarding publicly traded enterprises , the warming of relations between the US and China, as well as current geopolitical developments where China is implied have created uncertainty for investors. This results in a negative impact on the price of the stock.
There are factors that could influence the Chinese government to be tolerant and lower the pressure on publicly traded enterprises, particularly if they choose to give a higher priority to stronger GDP development .
Taking everything into account, this could be a fantastic buying opportunity if China is becoming the next world's superpower. However, from my personal point of view, I would rather have companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in my portfolio. I see better potential returns in them.
Short-Term Forecast
The price is showing consolidation in the zone between $80-$120, the lower part of the channel reflects a strong demand, which is easily spotted by the strong bounces that it has from there. You can also try to trade it by buying near the bottom of the lateral channel and selling it at the top.
$BABA released good quarterly earnings, beating expectations in sales and EPS. We should also take into account that when your revenue stays flat in an inflationary environment, probably your income from operations is going to decrease, and that's what happened here.
Bullish Scenario
If the momentum stays and the market breaks and maintains the $4300 level we can see a significant upside in this stock. Taking it to 120-160 dollars per share. Which in my humble opinion is less likely due to the market conditions and economic challenges that we are facing. The RECESSION is here, and the INFLATION has to go straight down from these levels to prevent a crash in the financial markets.
Bearish Scenario
If the INFLATION is unstoppable at these interest rates, the market is going to be severely punished. Less consumer demand due to the recession will impact companies' margins. Profit warnings from companies will accelerate the crash. If we find ourselves in this situation, get your cash ready, many investment opportunities will be out there waiting for us. In this case, I would adapt my strategy, and I could consider buying some $BABA at $60 for sure.
Alibaba is having strong buybacks from the management. The company has plenty of cash which is going to be used to reduce the outstanding amount of shares and to undertake investment projects. The Debt-Equity Ratio is around 15%, and the company has a healthy balance sheet. The Cloud Segment is getting bigger and it can also be a very important stream of income in the future for the firm. The company is actually trading at 10X Price / Cash Flow, which historically has meant that it is a good buy at this level. From a financial perspective, I think that $BABA is undervalued.
The above mentioned characteristics made me start buying the stock at $140, my mistake was that I didn't properly analyse the risks this investment had. Not everything is in the accounting books! Keep your eyes open!
I stand SHORT for the next 6-12 months and LONG for the next 3-5 years.
Don't forget, I'm a random guy on the internet that is just sharing his point of view. Do not take my reflections as financial advice.
BABA Testing MA200 since Feb21The Last time BABA touch MA200 was in 22 Feb 2021. Since then, BABA has been trending downwards below MA200 line, struggling to even surpass the ichimoku cloud and the downwards channel
Some Positive Signs of Reversal
-break above parallel channel
-Candlestick interact with MA 200
-Candlestick went above ichimoku cloud during june-july 2022
-Higher high(HH) formed
-Higher Low(HL2) seems to retrace lesser than HL
-Lagging span went above candlesticks(currently within the clouds)
-High trading volume at 73.39(speculative support)
Currently BABA still in bearish mode
-moving under MA200 and underneath ichimoku cloud
Some Strategies :
Conservative: Wait for candlestick to go above both MA200 & ichimoku and enter during retracement. Stop loss 5-10% below 73. More Margin of Safety & Lesser Future Gain
More Aggressive: Enter now(on the lower part of black parallel channel). Set TP at 136 or Expected uptrend of 1:1 of Line B from HL2. Stop loss 5-10% below 73. Lesser Margin of Safety & More Future Gain
#ALIBABA #BABA
BABA: The worst is over?!Alibaba
Short Term - We look to Buy at 101.70 (stop at 87.10)
Broken out of the triangle formation to the upside. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. A mild correction has been posted from yesterdays high, this is seen as a retest of the breakout level. Reverse trend line support comes in at 100.00. Dip buying offers good risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 139.64 and 150.00
Resistance: 140.00 / 160.00 / 200.00
Support: 100.00 / 90.00 / 60.00
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ALIBABA will rise again ??One of the biggest fall that ALIBABA has experienced is the recent one which is about 500 days+ and over 70% the market has chased. There are few support lines left which can be a golden chance to buy if the project turns to blockchain technology.
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